基于改进的SEIR+CAQ传染病动力学模型进行新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情趋势分析

目的 拟合并预测新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的发展趋势,为疫情防控提供科学依据。方法 基于SEIR动力学模型,考虑COVID-19的传播机制、感染谱、隔离措施等,建立SEIR^+CAQ传播动力学模型。基于官方公布的每日确诊病例数进行建模,利用2020年1月20日至2月7日的报告疫情数据进行拟合。采用2月8-12日的数据评估预测效果,并进行疫情预测。结果 SEIR^+CAQ模型对全国(湖北省除外)和湖北省(武汉市除外)的累计确诊病例数的过去10日拟合偏差<5%;未来5日预测偏差<10%,略有高估。全国(湖北省除外)和湖北省(武汉市除外)的每日新增确诊病例数已于2月1-2日达峰值;武汉市亦已于2月9日达到高峰。在当前防控措施不变的情况下,截至2月29日,预计全国累计确诊病例将达80 417例。预测结果尚未包含临床诊断病例。结论 SEIR^+CAQ模型可用于COVID-19疫情趋势预测,为疫情防控决策和效果评价提供参考。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎病例呼吸道病毒载量与密切接触者续发风险的关系

目的 分析新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）病例N基因Ct值与其密切接触者续发风险的关系,进而探索呼吸道病毒载量与其传染力的关系。方法 选择北京市发病0~7 d内有N基因Ct值记录的COVID-19确诊病例,将其密切接触者作为研究对象。收集密切接触者相关信息,主要包括性别、年龄、隔离方式、暴露方式、转归情况（发病与否）等变量。应用非条件多因素logistic回归模型分析COVID-19病例发病0~7 d内N基因Ct值与其密切接触者转归之间关联。结果 在1 618名密切接触者中,77人转归为COVID-19确诊病例或无症状感染者,续发率为4.8%。多因素分析显示,通过同餐（OR=2.741,P=0.054）、同住（OR=9.721,P<0.001）方式暴露、非集中隔离（OR=18.437,P<0.001）、对应病例发病0~7 d内N基因Ct值<20（OR=8.998,P=0.004）或Ct值在20~25之间（OR=3.547,P=0.032）是密切接触者续发风险增加的危险因素。结论 COVID-19病例呼吸道病毒载量与其传染力之间存在明确的正相关,提示COVID-19病例N基因Ct值可以作为其密切接触者管理的参考指标之一。     

基于健康大数据平台的鄞州区新型冠状病毒肺炎监测病例流行病学特征分析

目的 分析鄞州区基于健康大数据平台的新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）监测病例流行特征,为COVID-19监测网络体系建设提供依据。方法 收集鄞州区新型冠状病毒肺炎监测与预警信息系统每日COVID-19监测病例数据,分析COVID-19监测病例人群构成、流行病学史比例、核酸检测率、核酸阳性检出率和确诊病例监测发现率。结果 2020年1月1日至3月30日共报告COVID-19监测病例1 595例,其中社区人群和重点人群分别占79.94%和20.06%。监测病例现场调查核实率100.00%,有武汉市或湖北省接触流行病学史占6.27%,社区和重点人群中有流行病学史者占比分别为2.12%和22.81%（P<0.001）。COVID-19核酸总检测率18.24%（291/1 595）,有、无流行病学史者核酸检测率分别为53.00%和15.92%（P<0.001）,COVID-19核酸阳性检出率1.72%（5/291）。监测确诊病例发现率0.31%（5/1 595）,监测确诊病例和其他确诊病例初次就诊至初次核酸检测时间间隔差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。结论 基于健康大数据平台的COVID-19监测工作运转良好,但确诊病例监测发现率有待提高。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎治疗结局相关危险因素

目的 了解新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）的流行病学及临床特征，揭示与治疗结局相关的危险因素。方法 回顾性分析武汉市某三甲医院2019年12月27日-2020年1月30日收治的确诊COVID-19患者临床资料并追踪治疗结局，按治疗结局分为生存组（好转出院）和死亡组，通过单因素及多因素分析寻找与治疗结局有关的危险因素。结果 随访至2020年3月3日，100例COVID-19患者经治疗后好转出院85例（生存组），死亡15例（死亡组）。患者中位年龄44.0岁，女性占60.0%，1例新型冠状病毒核酸检测阳性患者除胸部CT示"右肺斑片状阴影"外无其他临床表现。单因素分析发现，患者年龄≥ 60岁，既往合并慢性心脏疾病、慢性肺部疾病、脑血管疾病、糖尿病、高血压等，入院时临床分型为重型或危重型，入院时实验室检查血小板计数<100×10⁹/L、淋巴细胞计数<0.5×10⁹/L、乳酸脱氢酶≥ 250 U/L、谷丙氨酸氨基转移酶和/或天冬氨酸氨基转移酶≥ 40 U/L、血肌酐≥ 97 μmol/L、纤维蛋白原≥ 4 g/L、D-二聚体≥ 1 mg/L，治疗上未联合中药及使用机械通气（P<0.05），以上因素所占比例死亡组高于生存组，差异均有统计学意义（均P<0.05）。多因素分析结果显示，入院时临床分型为重型或危重型、合并慢性心脏病是死亡相关的独立危险因素（P<0.01）。结论 COVID-19治疗结局与多种因素相关，其中入院时COVID-19临床分型为重型或危重型、合并慢性心脏病是患者死亡的独立危险因素。     

广州市2003年重症急性呼吸综合征与2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎流行特征对比分析

目的 通过对广州市2003年重症急性呼吸综合征（SARS）疫情以及2020年新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）疫情病例流行病学、临床特征等关键指标对比分析,探讨2种疾病的流行特征、相关指标异同的原因,为疫情防控提供参考。方法 收集2种传染病在广州市流行期间确诊病例的一般情况、临床分类、活动史、接触史、家庭成员接触及发病情况,对2种疾病的时间特征、职业特征、年龄特征以及其他关键指标进行描述性分析,分析指标包括发病数、构成比（%）、均数、中位数、粗病死率等。结果 SARS纳入研究1 072例,报告重症353例,发生率为30.13%;报告死亡43例,病死率为4.01%;平均年龄38岁;医务人员病例占26.31%;从首次报告到持续零报间隔129 d。COVID-19纳入研究346例,报告重症病例58例,发生率为16.76%;报告死亡1例,病死率为0.29%;平均年龄46岁,未发生医务人员院感事件;从首次报告到持续零报间隔35 d。结论 广州市对COVID-19的防控效果优于SARS,应急响应的措施值得评价和总结。     

基于传染病动力学模型的宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎防控措施效果评估

目的 基于传染病动力学模型评估宁波市新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）防控措施的效果。方法 收集截至2020年3月9日宁波市COVID-19疫情个案数据、疾病进程等信息。根据防控策略落实情况,建立SEIR传染病动力学模型,计算基本再生数（R₀）和实时再生数（R_t）,评估防控效果。结果 宁波市累计确诊COVID-19病例157例,无死亡病例,重症病例比例为12.1%。从暴露到发病（潜伏期）平均（5.7±2.9）d,发病到确诊平均（5.4±3.7）d,从确诊到出院平均（16.6±6.5）d。累计医学观察105 339人,其中居家医学观察者COVID-19感染率为0.1%,集中医学观察者感染率为0.3%,确诊病例在就诊前处于医学观察期者占63.1%。估算R₀为4.8。随着防控措施的加强,R_t呈逐渐下降趋势,到2月4日下降至1.0以下,之后持续下降到2月中旬的0.2。结论 通过建立传染病动力学模型,能够有效评估宁波市COVID-19防控措施的效果,为防控策略的制定提供科学依据。     

广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎病例临床转归及其影响因素

目的 分析广东省新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）病例的临床转归及其影响因素,为优化医疗救治及疫情防控的策略提供参考依据。方法 通过流行病学调查和进程追踪,收集广东省截至2020年3月4日COVID-19确诊病例1 350例的基本人口学特征、既往病史、就诊经过和临床转归等信息,分析确诊病例的临床分型、病程特点及其相关影响因素。结果 广东省COVID-19确诊病例1 350例中,临床分型为轻型、普通型、重型和危重型（重症）分别为5.3%（72/1 350）、77.7%（1 049/1 350）、12.1%（164/1 350）和4.3%（58/1 350）,粗死亡率为0.5%（7/1 350）。病程时间中位数为23（P₂₅,P₇₅：18,31）d,住院时间中位数为20（P₂₅,P₇₅：15,27）d。出现重症时间中位数为发病第12（P₂₅,P₇₅：第9,15）天,重症持续时间中位数为8（P₂₅,P₇₅：4,14）d。1 066例已出院/死亡病例中,入院轻型病例出现普通型的占36.4%（36/99）,出现重型的占1.0%（1/99）;入院普通型病例出现重型、危重型的分别占5.2%（50/968）、0.6%（6/968）;重型病例出现危重型的占11.4%（10/88）。病例出现重症的影响因素包括男性（aHR=1.87,95% CI：1.43~2.46）、年龄较大（aHR=1.67,95% CI：1.51~1.85）、发病至首诊第2~3天就诊（aHR=1.73,95% CI：1.20~2.50）、合并糖尿病（aHR=1.75,95% CI：1.12~2.73）、合并高血压（aHR=1.49,95% CI：1.06~2.09）。结论 广东省COVID-19病例病程和住院时间普遍较长,且与其临床分型严重程度有关,重症病例主要集中在特定人群,在疫情高发时期,为确保医疗资源的合理配置,需根据隔离和救治等防控需求对病例分类管理。     

2008－2014年中国艾滋病病毒感染者和艾滋病患者随访管理进展

目的 了解2008－2014年我国艾滋病病毒感染者/艾滋病患者(HIV/AIDS)随访管理工作进展。方法 采用随访干预、CD₄⁺T淋巴细胞(CD₄)检测和配偶/固定性伴HIV抗体检测3个指标分析随访管理工作进展,利用艾滋病综合防治数据信息系统中2008－2014年数据库,分析指标变化情况。结果 全国HIV/AIDS的随访干预率由2008年的55.7%上升到2014年的94.7%,CD₄检测率由2008年的48.4%上升到2014年的88.3%,配偶/固定性伴HIV抗体检测率由2008年的48.3%上升到2014年的91.1%。3项指标均逐年增长,经趋势χ²检验均有统计学意义(随访干预:χ²=180 466.733,P<0.01;CD₄:χ²=35 982.374,P<0.01;配偶检测:χ²=43 108.270,P<0.01)。注射吸毒途径HIV/AIDS随访干预率和配偶检测率较低,监管场所HIV/AIDS的3项指标均较低,感染途径不详者3项指标最低。结论 我国HIV/AIDS随访管理指标显著提高,HIV/AIDS得到有效随访管理服务。今后要加强注射吸毒途径感染以及监管场所HIV/AIDS的随访管理工作,首诊时加强个人信息的收集。     

新型冠状病毒肺炎大流行的实验室检测和预防控制资源需求评估

目的 快速评估不同情景下新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）实验室检测和预防控制（防控）资源需求数,为传染病流行做好产能规划、储备分配和资金筹集方面的准备。方法 基于引入无症状感染者和确诊住院患者的易感者-潜隐者-传染者-移除者传播动力学模型,构建COVID-19不同流行情景并预测住院/隔离人数,结合当前我国防控策略,评估各情景下开展实验室检测和预防控制时所需资源数。结果 COVID-19发生社区传播及局部地区暴发且实施全员核酸检测时,我国现有实验室检测及预防控制所需医用个人防护用品及设备资源产能尚可满足需求,但人力资源储备与所需相差3.3~89.1倍不等。无症状感染者比例的增加也加剧了人力需求及防控难度。当≥50%人群获得疫苗保护时,适当调整防控措施,可降低资源需求。结论 当前我国仍亟需进行实验室检测和预防控制的人力储备,以应对难以预见的COVID-19疫情。需考究全员核酸检测对人力资源的挑战及实施的必要性。实施非药物干预措施,鼓励公众接种COVID-19疫苗,在一定程度上可缓解疾病流行带来的卫生资源需求冲击。     

天津市新型冠状病毒肺炎确诊病例流行病学特征分析

目的 探讨天津市135例新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）确诊病例临床及流行病学特征。方法 收集天津市135例COVID-19确诊病例的临床及流行病学资料,对数据进行描述性分析,并对病情严重程度影响因素进行分析。结果 135例病例中,男性72例,女性63例,年龄（48.62±16.83）岁,病死率为2.22%。74.81%的病例感染来源为本地传播。共发生33起聚集性疫情,涉及的病例占全部病例的85.92%。疾病的中位潜伏期为6.50 d,代间距平均为5.00 d,家庭内续发率为20.46%。发热的病例占比78.63%,其次为咳嗽56.48%;多因素回归分析显示年龄（OR=1.038,95% CI：1.010~1.167）、慢性基础性疾病病种数（OR=1.709,95% CI：1.052~2.777）是重症的危险因素。结论 天津市COVID-19病例早期以发热为主,本地聚集性疫情为确诊病例的主要构成,高年龄、有多种基础性疾病的人群容易转为重症,对密切接触者严格隔离及加强高危人群的救治是降低发病率和病死率的主要措施。     

COVID-19 clinical outcomes by patient disability status: A retrospective cohort study

BackgroundPeople with disabilities might experience worse clinical outcomes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, but evidence is limited.ObjectiveTo investigate if people with disabilities requiring assistance are more likely to experience severe COVID-19 or death.MethodsData from the Johns Hopkins COVID-19 Precision Medicine Analytics Platform Registry (JH-CROWN) included 6494 adult patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and admitted between March 4, 2020–October 29, 2021. Severe COVID-19 and death were defined using the occurrence and timing of clinical events. Assistive needs due to disabilities were reported by patients or their proxies upon admission. Multivariable-adjusted Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the associations between disability status and severe COVID-19 or death. Primary models adjusted for demographics and secondary models additionally adjusted for clinical covariates.ResultsIn this clinical cohort (47–73 years, 49% female, 39% Black), patients with disabilities requiring assistance had 1.35 times (95% confidence interval [CI]:1.01, 1.81) the hazard of severe COVID-19 among patients <65 years, but not among those ≥65 years, equating to an additional 17.5 severe COVID-19 cases (95% CI:7.7, 28.2) per 100 patients. A lower risk of mortality was found among patients <65 years, but this finding was not robust due to the small number of deaths.ConclusionsPeople with disabilities requiring assistance aged <65 years are more likely to develop severe COVID-19. Although our study is limited by using a medical model of disability, these analyses intend to further our understanding of COVID-19 outcomes among people with disabilities. Also, standardized disability data collection within electronic health records is needed.     

Factores de riesgo para complicaciones graves de COVID-19, comparando tres olas epidemiológicas. Un enfoque desde la atención primaria en México

ObjectivesTo describe the association between chronic noncommunicable diseases and age with hospitalization, death and severe clinical outcomes for COVID-19 in confirmed cases within the mexican population, comparing the first three epidemiological waves of the pandemic in Mexico.DesignWe performed an analysis using Mexico's Government Epidemiological Surveillance System database for COVID-19.EmplacementMexico's Epidemiological Surveillance System for Respiratory Diseases.ParticipantsMexican population confirmed with SARS-CoV-2 registered on Mexico's Epidemiological Surveillance System for Respiratory Diseases.Primary measurementsThe analysed severe outcomes were hospitalization, pneumonia, use of mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit admission and death. The association (odds ratio) between the outcomes and clinical variables was evaluated, comparing the three epidemiological waves in Mexico.ResultsAge over 65 is associated with a higher ratio of hospitalization and pneumonia, independent of the effect of chronic comorbidities. There is an interaction between age and obesity, which is associated with hospitalization, pneumonia and highly associated with death. These findings were consistent throughout the three epidemiological waves.ConclusionObesity, COPD and diabetes in interaction with age, are associated with worse clinical outcomes and, more importantly, death in patients with COVID-19.     

COVID-19–Related Hospitalization Rates and Severe Outcomes Among Veterans From 5 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers: Hospital-Based Surveillance Study

BackgroundCOVID-19 has disproportionately affected older adults and certain racial and ethnic groups in the United States. Data quantifying the disease burden, as well as describing clinical outcomes during hospitalization among these groups, are needed.ObjectiveWe aimed to describe interim COVID-19 hospitalization rates and severe clinical outcomes by age group and race and ethnicity among US veterans by using a multisite surveillance network.MethodsWe implemented a multisite COVID-19 surveillance platform in 5 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers located in Atlanta, Bronx, Houston, Palo Alto, and Los Angeles, collectively serving more than 396,000 patients annually. From February 27 to July 17, 2020, we actively identified inpatient cases with COVID-19 by screening admitted patients and reviewing their laboratory test results. We then manually abstracted the patients'' medical charts for demographics, underlying medical conditions, and clinical outcomes. Furthermore, we calculated hospitalization incidence and incidence rate ratios, as well as relative risk for invasive mechanical ventilation, intensive care unit admission, and case fatality rate after adjusting for age, race and ethnicity, and underlying medical conditions.ResultsWe identified 621 laboratory-confirmed, hospitalized COVID-19 cases. The median age of the patients was 70 years, with 65.7% (408/621) aged ≥65 years and 94% (584/621) male. Most COVID-19 diagnoses were among non-Hispanic Black (325/621, 52.3%) veterans, followed by non-Hispanic White (153/621, 24.6%) and Hispanic or Latino (112/621, 18%) veterans. Hospitalization rates were the highest among veterans who were ≥85 years old, Hispanic or Latino, and non-Hispanic Black (430, 317, and 298 per 100,000, respectively). Veterans aged ≥85 years had a 14-fold increased rate of hospitalization compared with those aged 18-29 years (95% CI: 5.7-34.6), whereas Hispanic or Latino and Black veterans had a 4.6- and 4.2-fold increased rate of hospitalization, respectively, compared with non-Hispanic White veterans (95% CI: 3.6-5.9). Overall, 11.6% (72/621) of the patients required invasive mechanical ventilation, 26.6% (165/621) were admitted to the intensive care unit, and 16.9% (105/621) died in the hospital. The adjusted relative risk for invasive mechanical ventilation and admission to the intensive care unit did not differ by age group or race and ethnicity, but veterans aged ≥65 years had a 4.5-fold increased risk of death while hospitalized with COVID-19 compared with those aged <65 years (95% CI: 2.4-8.6).ConclusionsCOVID-19 surveillance at the 5 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers across the United States demonstrated higher hospitalization rates and severe outcomes among older veterans, as well as higher hospitalization rates among Hispanic or Latino and non-Hispanic Black veterans than among non-Hispanic White veterans. These findings highlight the need for targeted prevention and timely treatment for veterans, with special attention to older aged, Hispanic or Latino, and non-Hispanic Black veterans.     

Association between body-mass index,patient characteristics,and obesity-related comorbidities among COVID-19 patients: A prospective cohort study

ObjectiveObesity is a major risk factor for adverse outcomes after COVID-19 infection. However, it is unknown if the worse outcomes are due to the confounding effect of demographic and obesity-related comorbidities. The study objective is to analyze associations between body mass index, patient characteristics, obesity-related comorbidity, and clinical outcomes in COVID-19 patients.MethodsIn this prospective cohort study, we chose patient records between March 1st, 2020, and December 1st, 2022, in a large tertiary care center in southeast Wisconsin in the United States. Patients over the age of 18 who tested positive were included in the study. Clinical outcomes included hospitalization, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality rates. We examined the characteristics of patients who had positive clinical outcomes. We created unadjusted logistic regression models, sequentially adjusting for demographic and comorbidity variables, to assess the independent associations between BMI, patient characteristics, obesity-related comorbidities, and clinical outcomes.ResultsFrom a record of 1.67 million inpatients and outpatients at Froedtert Health Center, 55,299 (BMI: 30.5 ± 7.4 kg/m², 62.5 % female) tested COVID-19 positive during the study period. 17,580 (31.8 %) patients were admitted to hospitals, and of hospitalized patients required ICU admission. 1038 (36.3 %) required mechanical ventilation, and 462 (44.5 %) died after a positive test for COVID-19. We found female patients show a higher hospitalization rate, while male patients have a higher rate of ICU admission, mechanical ventilation, and mortality. Obesity-related comorbidities are associated with worse outcomes compared to simple obesity without comorbidities. In logistic regression models, we found four similar V-shaped associations between BMI and four clinical outcomes. Patients with a BMI of 25 kg/m² are at the lowest risk for clinical outcomes. Patients with a BMI lower than 18 kg/m² or higher than 30 kg/m² are associated with a higher risk of hospitalization, ICU, mechanical ventilation, and death. After adjusting the model for demographic factors and hypertension and diabetes as two common comorbidities, we found that demographic factors do not significantly increase the risk. Obesity alone does not significantly increase the risk of severe clinical outcomes. Obesity-related comorbidities, on the other hand, resulted in a significantly higher risk of outcomes.ConclusionObesity alone does not increase the risk of worse clinical outcomes after COVID-19 infection. It may suggest that the worse clinical outcomes of patients with obesity are mediated via hypertension and type 2 diabetes. Patients with obesity and comorbidities have a higher risk of poor outcomes. Obesity-related comorbidities, including hypertension and diabetes, are independently associated with poorer clinical outcomes among COVID-19 patients. At a BMI of more than 30 kg/m² or less than 18 kg/m², we found an increase in the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes leading to hospitalization, ICU, mechanical ventilation, and death. The increased risk of severe outcomes is not attributed to patient characteristics but can be attributed to hypertension and diabetes.     

Decreased Mortality Over Time During the First Wave in Patients With COVID-19 in Geriatric Care: Data From the Stockholm GeroCovid Study

ObjectiveTo describe temporal changes in treatment, care, and short-term mortality outcomes of geriatric patients during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic.DesignObservational study.Setting and ParticipantsAltogether 1785 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 and 6744 hospitalized for non–COVID-19 causes at 7 geriatric clinics in Stockholm from March 6 to July 31, 2020, were included.MethodsAcross admission month, patient vital signs and pharmacological treatment in relationship to risk for in-hospital death were analyzed using the Poisson regression model. Incidence rates (IRs) and incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of death are presented.ResultsIn patients with COVID-19, the IR of mortality were 27%, 17%, 10%, 8%, and 2% from March to July, respectively, after standardization for demographics and vital signs. Compared with patients admitted in March, the risk of in-hospital death decreased by 29% [IRR 0.71, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.51-0.99] in April, 61% (0.39, 0.26-0.58) in May, 68% (0.32, 0.19-0.55) in June, and 86% (0.14, 0.03-0.58) in July. The proportion of patients admitted for geriatric care with oxygen saturation <90% decreased from 13% to 1%, which partly explains the improvement of COVID-19 patient survival. In non–COVID-19 patients during the pandemic, mortality rates remained relatively stable (IR 1.3%-2.3%). Compared with non–COVID-19 geriatric patients, the IRR of death declined from 11 times higher (IRR 11.7, 95% CI 6.11-22.3) to 1.6 times (2.61, 0.50-13.7) between March and July in patients with COVID-19.Conclusions and ImplicationsMortality risk in geriatric patients from the Stockholm region declined over time throughout the first pandemic wave of COVID-19. The improved survival rate over time was only partly related to improvement in saturation status at the admission of the patients hospitalized later throughout the pandemic. Lower incidence during the later months could have led to less severe hospitalized cases driving down mortality.     

Statin Use and COVID-19 Infectivity and Severity in South Korea: Two Population-Based Nationwide Cohort Studies

BackgroundBasic studies suggest that statins as add-on therapy may benefit patients with COVID-19; however, real-world evidence of such a beneficial association is lacking.ObjectiveWe investigated differences in SARS-CoV-2 test positivity and clinical outcomes of COVID-19 (composite endpoint: admission to intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death) between statin users and nonusers.MethodsTwo independent population-based cohorts were analyzed, and we investigated the differences in SARS-CoV-2 test positivity and severe clinical outcomes of COVID-19, such as admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death, between statin users and nonusers. One group comprised an unmatched cohort of 214,207 patients who underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing from the Global Research Collaboration Project (GRCP)-COVID cohort, and the other group comprised an unmatched cohort of 74,866 patients who underwent SARS-CoV-2 testing from the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS)-COVID cohort.ResultsThe GRCP-COVID cohort with propensity score matching had 29,701 statin users and 29,701 matched nonusers. The SARS-CoV-2 test positivity rate was not associated with statin use (statin users, 2.82% [837/29,701]; nonusers, 2.65% [787/29,701]; adjusted relative risk [aRR] 0.97; 95% CI 0.88-1.07). Among patients with confirmed COVID-19 in the GRCP-COVID cohort, 804 were statin users and 1573 were matched nonusers. Statin users were associated with a decreased likelihood of severe clinical outcomes (statin users, 3.98% [32/804]; nonusers, 5.40% [85/1573]; aRR 0.62; 95% CI 0.41-0.91) and length of hospital stay (statin users, 23.8 days; nonusers, 26.3 days; adjusted mean difference –2.87; 95% CI –5.68 to –0.93) than nonusers. The results of the NHIS-COVID cohort were similar to the primary results of the GRCP-COVID cohort.ConclusionsOur findings indicate that prior statin use is related to a decreased risk of worsening clinical outcomes of COVID-19 and length of hospital stay but not to that of SARS-CoV-2 infection.     

Intellectual and developmental disability and COVID-19 case-fatality trends: TriNetX analysis

BackgroundDespite possibly higher risk of severe outcomes from COVID-19 among people with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD), there has been limited reporting of COVID-19 trends for this population.ObjectiveTo compare COVID-19 trends among people with and without IDD, overall and stratified by age.MethodsData from the TriNetX COVID-19 Research Network platform was used to identify COVID-19 patients. Analysis focused on trends in comorbidities, number of cases, number of deaths, and case-fatality rate among patients with and without IDD who had a positive diagnosis for COVID-19 through May 14, 2020.ResultsPeople with IDD had higher prevalence of specific comorbidities associated with poorer COVID-19 outcomes. Distinct age-related differences in COVID-19 trends were present among those with IDD, with a higher concentration of COVID-19 cases at younger ages. In addition, while the overall case-fatality rate was similar for those with IDD (5.1%) and without IDD (5.4%), these rates differed by age: ages ≤17 – IDD 1.6%, without IDD <0.01%; ages 18–74 – IDD 4.5%, without IDD 2.7%; ages ≥75– IDD 21.1%, without IDD, 20.7%.ConclusionsThough of concern for all individuals, COVID-19 appears to present a greater risk to people with IDD, especially at younger ages. Future research should seek to document COVID-19 trends among people with IDD, with particular attention to age related trends.     

The Association Between Chronic Disease and Serious COVID-19 Outcomes and Its Influence on Risk Perception: Survey Study and Database Analysis

BackgroundCOVID-19, a viral respiratory disease first reported in December 2019, quickly became a threat to global public health. Further understanding of the epidemiology of the SARS-CoV-2 virus and the risk perception of the community may better inform targeted interventions to reduce the impact and spread of COVID-19.ObjectiveIn this study, we aimed to examine the association between chronic diseases and serious outcomes following COVID-19 infection, and to explore its influence on people’s self-perception of risk for worse COVID-19 outcomes.MethodsThis study draws data from two databases: (1) the nationwide database of all confirmed COVID-19 cases in Portugal, extracted on April 28, 2020 (n=20,293); and (2) the community-based COVID-19 Barometer survey, which contains data on health status, perceptions, and behaviors during the first wave of COVID-19 (n=171,087). We assessed the association between relevant chronic diseases (ie, respiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases; diabetes; and cancer) and death and intensive care unit (ICU) admission following COVID-19 infection. We identified determinants of self-perception of risk for severe COVID-19 outcomes using logistic regression models.ResultsRespiratory, cardiovascular, and renal diseases were associated with mortality and ICU admission among patients hospitalized due to COVID-19 infection (odds ratio [OR] 1.48, 95% CI 1.11-1.98; OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.80-6.40; and OR 2.25, 95% CI 1.66-3.06, respectively). Diabetes and cancer were associated with serious outcomes only when considering the full sample of COVID-19–infected cases in the country (OR 1.30, 95% CI 1.03-1.64; and OR 1.40, 95% CI 1.03-1.89, respectively). Older age and male sex were both associated with mortality and ICU admission. The perception of risk for severe COVID-19 disease in the study population was 23.9% (n=40,890). This was markedly higher for older adults (n=5235, 46.4%), those with at least one chronic disease (n=17,647, 51.6%), or those in both of these categories (n=3212, 67.7%). All included diseases were associated with self-perceptions of high risk in this population.ConclusionsOur results demonstrate the association between some prevalent chronic diseases and increased risk of worse COVID-19 outcomes. It also brings forth a greater understanding of the community’s risk perceptions of serious COVID-19 disease. Hence, this study may aid health authorities to better adapt measures to the real needs of the population and to identify vulnerable individuals requiring further education and awareness of preventive measures.     

Risk of COVID-19 and major adverse clinical outcomes among people with disabilities in South Korea

BackgroundEvidence regarding the risk of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and the major adverse clinical outcomes of COVID-19 among people with disabilities (PwDs) is scarce.ObjectiveThis study investigated the association of disability status with the risk of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) test positivity and the risk of major adverse clinical outcomes among participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.MethodsThis study included all patients (n = 8070) who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 and individuals without COVID-19 (n = 121,050) in South Korea from January 1 to May 30, 2020. The study variables included officially registered disability status from the government, SARS-CoV-2 test positivity, and major adverse clinical outcomes of COVID-19 (admission to the intensive care unit, invasive ventilation, or death).ResultsThe study participants included 129,120 individuals (including 7261 PwDs), of whom 8070 (6.3%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. After adjusting for potential confounding factors, PwDs had an increased risk of SARS-CoV-2 test positivity compared with people without disabilities (odds ratio [OR]: 1.36, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.24–1.48). Among participants who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, PwDs were associated with an increased risk of major adverse clinical outcomes from COVID-19 compared to those without disabilities (OR: 1.43, 95% CI: 1.11–1.86).ConclusionsPwDs had an increased risk of COVID-19 and major adverse clinical outcomes of COVID-19 compared with people without disabilities. Given the higher vulnerability of PwDs to COVID-19, tailored policy and management to protect against the risk of COVID-19 are required.