肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症列线图风险预测模型的建立与评价

背景与目的：肝切除术后并发症的发生率较高,早期筛查术后严重并发症发生的高风险人群对于降低术后严重并发症的发生率具有重要意义。本研究通过分析肝细胞癌患者术后严重并发症发生的危险因素,建立术后严重并发症发生的个体化列线图风险预测模型,以期为肝细胞癌患者围术期管理的优化提供参考依据。 方法：回顾性分析广西医科大学第一附属医院肝胆外科2018年1月—2020年6月行肝切除术的854例肝细胞癌患者资料,采用单因素分析与Logistic回归分析筛选术后严重并发症的影响因素,并建立列线图风险预测模型,采用Bootstrap法对模型进行内部验证,并应用ROC曲线及校准曲线评价模型的区分度及校准度。 结果：854例患者中86例（10.1%）发生术后严重并发症（≥III级）。单因素分析与Logistic回归分析结果显示,肝硬化（OR=1.905,95% CI=1.153~3.147,P=0.012）、手术方式（OR=3.412,95% CI=1.618~7.192,P=0.001）、术中血浆输注（OR=2.518,95% CI=1.51~4.199,P<0.001）、手术时间（OR=1.003,95% CI=1.002~1.005,P<0.001）、术后白蛋白水平（OR=0.922,95% CI=0.873~0.973,P=0.003）、术后天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶水平（OR=1.001,95% CI=1.000~1.002,P=0.006）是肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症的独立影响因素。列线图模型预测术后严重并发症发生风险的C-指数为0.774,ROC曲线显示列线图模型预测术后严重并发症发生风险的曲线下面积为0.788（95% CI= 0.74~0.836）。 结论：基于6个临床因素建立的肝细胞癌患者肝切除术后严重并发症的个体化列线图风险预测模型预测效能良好,可用于早期识别高风险患者,为医务人员采取防治措施提供依据。     

术前炎性指标构建的列线图模型预测结直肠癌患者术后生存分析

目的探讨基于术前炎性指标构建的列线图模型预测结直肠癌患者术后生存的价值。方法采用队列研究设计,选取2011年1月至2014年6月空军第986医院行结直肠癌根治术的233例结直肠癌患者,根据5年随访结果,将患者分成生存组(99例)和死亡组(134例)。比较两组患者术前1 d炎性指标水平,单因素和Cox回归分析结直肠癌患者术后5年生存的影响因素,应用R软件建立列线图术后存活预测模型。结果两组患者术前淋巴细胞计数、中性粒细胞计数、血小板计数、C反应蛋白、血小板/淋巴细胞比值(PLR)、中性粒细胞/淋巴细胞(NLR)和C反应蛋白/白蛋白比值(CAR)等指标比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05),而白细胞计数和白蛋白比较,差异无统计学意义;肿瘤大小(OR=1.379,95%CI:1.094~1.737)、浸润深度(OR=2.020,95%CI:1.126~3.622)、NLR(OR=1.496,95%CI:1.009~2.219)、PLR(OR=1.927,95%CI:1.060~3.504)和CAR(OR=2.326,95%CI:1.479~3.657)是结直肠癌患者术后生存的独立影响因素(P<0.05)。列线图预测术后生存模型的C-index为0.831(95%CI:0.781~0.911),校准预测曲线和理想曲线拟合良好。结论术前NLR、PLR和CAR与结直肠癌术后生存呈负相关,且列线图具有预测结直肠癌患者术后生存情况的潜在价值。     

The usefulness of a combination of age,body mass index,and blood urea nitrogen as prognostic factors in predicting oxygen requirements in patients with coronavirus disease 2019

IntroductionRisk factors for seriously ill coronavirus disease 19 (COVID-19) patients have been reported in several studies. However, to date, few studies have reported simple risk assessment tools for distinguishing patients becoming severely ill after initial diagnosis. Hence, this study aimed to develop a simple clinical risk nomogram predicting oxygenation risk in patients with COVID-19 at the first triage.MethodsThis retrospective study involved a chart review of the medical records of 84 patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between February 2020 and March 2021 at ten medical facilities. The patients were divided into requiring no oxygen therapy (non-severe group) and requiring oxygen therapy (severe group). Patient characteristics were compared between the two groups.We utilized univariate logistic regression analysis to confirm determinants of high risks of requiring oxygen therapy in patients with moderate COVID-19.ResultsThirty-five patients ware in severe group and forty-nine patients were in non-severe group. In comparison with patients in the non-severe group, patients in the severe group were significantly older with higher body mass index (BMI), and had a history of hypertension and diabetes. Serum blood urea nitrogen (BUN), lactic acid dehydrogenase (LDH), and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels were significantly higher in the severe group. Multivariate analysis showed that older age, higher BMI, and higher BUN levels were significantly associated with oxygen requirements.ConclusionsThis study demonstrated that age, BMI, and BUN were independent risk factors in the moderate-to-severe COVID-19 group. Elderly patients with higher BMI and BUN require close monitoring and early treatment initiation.     

Nomogram for Prediction of Prostate Cancer with Serum Prostate Specific Antigen Less than 10 ng/mL

Although prostate-specific antigen (PSA) is a very useful screening tool, prostate biopsy is still necessary to confirm prostate cancer (PCA). However, it is reported that PSA is associated with a high false-positive rate and prostate biopsy also has various procedure-related complications. Therefore, the authors have devised a nomogram, which can be used to estimate the risk of PCA, using available clinical data for men with a serum PSA less than 10 ng/mL. Prostate biopsies were obtained from 2,139 patients from January 1998 to March 2011. Of them, 1,171 patients with a serum PSA less than 10 ng/mL were only included in this study. Patient age, PSA, free PSA, prostate volume, PSA density and percent free PSA ratio were analyzed. Among 1,171 patients, 255 patients (21.8%) were diagnosed as PCA. Multivariate analyses showed that patient age, prostate volume, PSA and percent free PSA had statistically significant relationships with PCA (P < 0.05) and were used as nomogram predictor variables. The area under the (ROC) curve for all factors in a model predicting PCA was 0.759 (95% CI, 0.716-0.803).

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预测胰十二指肠切除术后切口疝发病风险列线图模型的建立

目的建立预测胰十二指肠切除（PD）术后发生切口疝的风险列线图模型,为切口疝的早期干预提供依据。 方法回顾性分析2009年1月至2017年1月于邯郸市中心医院行PD术的926患者的临床资料,随访发生切口疝的患者24例（切口疝组）,未发生切口疝的按照1∶5的比例随机抽取120例为非切口疝组。分别使用单因素和Logistic回归多因素分析术后切口疝的独立危险因素,并建立相关列线图预测模型。 结果年龄≥60岁（OR=5.800,95% CI 1.530~21.984）、BMI≥24 kg/m²（OR=4.165,95% CI 1.187~14.613）、糖尿病（OR=5.321,95% CI 1.548~18.285）、呼吸系统疾病（OR=4.565,95% CI 1.225~17.007）、切口感染（OR=6.803,95% CI 1.573~29.419）及手术时间≥6 h（OR=6.934,95% CI 1.938~24.813）是PD术后发生切口疝的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。基于以上6项独立危险因素建立列线图模型,并对该模型进行验证,预测值同实测值基本一致,C-index 0.890（95% CI 0.854~0.926）,说明本研究列线图模型具有良好的精准度和区分度。 结论年龄≥60岁、BMI≥24 kg/m²、糖尿病、呼吸系统疾病、切口感染及手术时间≥6 h是PD术后发生切口疝的独立危险因素,本研究建立的列线图预测模型具有良好的精准性和区分度,有利于临床筛查PD术后发生切口疝的高风险人群和制定针对性规避措施。     

Predicción de resultados de cistoscopias en la práctica

ObjectiveOur objective was to elaborate a predictive model of bladder cancer, in an unselected clinical population submitted to cystoscopy.Materials and methodsWe recruited consecutive patients that underwent cystoscopy due to suspicion of bladder cancer or surveillance of a previously diagnosed bladder cancer. Urine cytology and a BTA-stat® (BTA) test were carried out for all patients. To avoid an assessment bias, the BTA-tests, cytologies and cystoscopies were conducted in a blinded fashion. We used logistic regression to predict cystoscopy results from cytology, BTA-test and clinical variables.ResultsFrom August 2011 to July 2012, we recruited 244 patients and 237 were valid for analysis. Newly diagnosed and surveillance cases were 13% and 87% respectively. Cytology and BTA-test sensitivities were 57.9% (CI 95: 42.2-72.1) and 63.2% (CI 95: 47.3-76.6) with specificities of 84.4% (CI 95: 78.7-88.8) and 82.9% (CI 95: 77.1-87.5). The predictive model included the BTA-test, cytology, time since previous tumour, and treatment with mitomicin or BGC during the last three months. The model predictive accuracy (AUC) was .85 (.78-.92), and dropped to 0.79 when excluding the BTA-test (P = .026). For the surveillance of bladder cancer, a 10% threshold on the model predicted probabilities resulted in an overall negative predictive value of 95.7%, and 95.0% in low grade tumours.ConclusionIn a cost containment environment, our prediction model could be used to space out cystoscopies in patients with previous, low grade tumours, resulting in a more efficient use of resources in the healthcare system.     

基于CD133及上皮 间质转化相关因子的列线图模型对上皮性卵巢癌预后的预测价值

目的 构建预测上皮性卵巢癌(EOC)预后的列线图模型,验证其应用价值。方法 对2009年1月至2012年1月十堰市太和医院152例经手术病理确诊的初治EOC病人进行术后持续随访。检测其病理标本中CD133、Snail、E-cadherin蛋白表达情况,统计病人一般资料及临床病理资料,通过Cox风险比例模型确定病人累积生存率的影响因素,应用R语言建立基于上述因素的列线图模型,并验证其应用价值。结果 152份病理标本中,CD133阳性表达87例,占57.24%,E-cadherin阳性表达50例,占32.89%,Snail阳性表达89例,占58.55%。CD133、Snail阳性者及E-cadherin阴性者,累积生存时间明显短于对应对照组,差异有统计学意义(P＜0.05)。CD133阳性、伴腹部脏器或淋巴结转移是病人预后的危险因素,E-cadherin阳性是病人预后的保护因素(P＜0.05)。经R语言建立列线图模型及校准曲线,校准图形接近于斜率为1的直线,列线图模型的内部一致性参数C-index=0.699。结论 CD133及E-cadherin表达情况是EOC病人预后的影响因素,构建列线图能够有效预测病人生存率。     

基于诺模图模型预测内镜下治疗肝硬化胃静脉曲张的疗效

目的通过诺模图(Nomogram)模型预测内镜下组织黏合剂治疗肝硬化患者胃静脉曲张的疗效。方法选择2014年8月至2017年9月因肝硬化食管胃底静脉曲张破裂出血至复旦大学附属中山医院就诊且接受内镜下组织黏合剂治疗的158例患者。随访12个月,主要结局指标为再出血。分析肝硬化胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗后再出血的影响因素。构建诺模图模型,比较其与Child分级、计算机体层摄影血管造影(CTA)和肝静脉压力梯度(HVPG)预测肝硬化胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗后再出血的准确性。统计学分析采用单因素和多因素Cox回归分析,以及Kaplan-Meier曲线和log-rank检验。结果随访中,在内镜下治疗后2、6和12个月分别出现再出血18例(11.4%)、37例(23.4%)和49例(31.0%)。单因素Cox回归分析结果显示,性别、酒精性肝硬化、糖尿病、Child-Pugh分级(A级与B或C级)、CTA腔外血管(有与无)、HVPG(<16 mmHg与≥16 mmHg,1 mmHg=0.133 kPa)、门脉系统广泛栓塞、食管静脉曲张、食管胃静脉曲张2型、组织黏合剂注射点(≤3点与>3点)和组织黏合剂注射量(≤3 mL与>3 mL)均为胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗后再出血的影响因素(HR=0.575、2.018、1.562、3.433、2.945、1.859、2.743、0.324、1.840、1.477、1.716,95%CI 0.305~1.084、0.902~4.514、0.814~2.792、1.753~6.724、1.663~5.217、1.012~3.415、0.852~8.830、0.079~1.335、1.012~3.317、0.839~2.602、0.935~3.152,P均<0.2)。多因素Cox回归分析结果显示,Child-Pugh分级、CTA腔外血管和HVPG均为胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗后再出血的独立危险因素(HR=2.665、2.886、2.095,95%CI 1.339~5.300、1.580~5.271、1.099~3.995,P均<0.05)。Kaplan-Meier曲线显示,Child-Pugh分级(A级与B或C级)、CTA腔外血管(有与无)和HVPG(<16 mmHg与≥16 mmHg)均能有效预测胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗后1年累积未再出血率,差异均有统计学意义(P均<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示,联合Child-Pugh分级、CTA腔外血管和HVPG(<16 mmHg与≥16 mmHg)的模型可能比Child-Pugh分级和HVPG有更好的预测价值(AUC=0.746、0.673和0.585,95%CI 0.662~0.829、0.583~0.762和0.486~0.683,P<0.01、P=0.001、P=0.089)。根据诺模图评分的下四分位数和上四分位数将患者分为低、中、高危组,结果显示诺模图可以有效区分胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗后再出血的高危人群,差异有统计学意义(P<0.01)。结论CTA腔外血管、HVPG和Child-Pugh分级是肝硬化胃静脉曲张内镜下治疗疗效的独立预测指标,基于此3项指标建立的诺模图模型的预测准确性可能优于Child-Pugh分级和HVPG。