Un sistema de vigilancia de salud pública para el cambio climático en las ciudades

This paper makes a first proposal for a public health surveillance system for climate change in cities, and describes the process that led to its definition. After several years of monitoring different aspects related to climate change and its impact, the public health services of Barcelona made a preliminary proposal and gathered a working group of experts to discuss and review it. Four categories of components were defined: climate data, health impacts of climate change and its determinants, contributions of the city to mitigation (especially those with health co-benefits), and actions to reduce vulnerability to extreme events. They were broken in twelve components, with indicators for each. The proposal was further refined with subsequent reviews, and is being used by the city public health services involved in this field.     

网络规模迭加法开展人群规模估计的研究进展

网络规模迭加法是一种在社会网络理论基础上建立的间接估计人群规模的方法,由于不需要接触目标人群,在估计隐藏人群规模时得到了广泛应用。该方法也在不断发展进步中,本文从传统的网络规模迭加法及其进展及与新的调查技术结合三个方面进行综述,旨在为该方法的进一步应用提供参考。     

Estimating and Characterizing COVID-19 Deaths,Puerto Rico,March–July 2020

ObjectivesUsing the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) classification guidelines, we characterized coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)–associated confirmed and probable deaths in Puerto Rico during March–July 2020. We also estimated the total number of possible deaths due to COVID-19 in Puerto Rico during the same period.MethodsWe described data on COVID-19–associated mortality, in which the lower bound was the sum of confirmed and probable COVID-19 deaths and the upper bound was excess mortality, estimated as the difference between observed deaths and average expected deaths. We obtained data from the Puerto Rico Department of Health COVID-19 Mortality Surveillance System, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Electronic Disease Surveillance System Base System, and the National Center for Health Statistics.ResultsDuring March–July 2020, 225 COVID-19–associated deaths were identified in Puerto Rico (119 confirmed deaths and 106 probable deaths). The median age of decedents was 73 (interquartile range, 59-83); 60 (26.7%) deaths occurred in the Metropolitana region, and 140 (62.2%) deaths occurred among men. Of the 225 decedents, 180 (83.6%) had been hospitalized and 93 (41.3%) had required mechanical ventilation. Influenza and pneumonia (48.0%), sepsis (28.9%), and respiratory failure (27.1%) were the most common conditions contributing to COVID-19 deaths based on death certificates. Based on excess mortality calculations, as many as 638 COVID-19–associated deaths could have occurred during the study period, up to 413 more COVID-19–associated deaths than originally reported.ConclusionsIncluding probable deaths per the CSTE guidelines and monitoring all-cause excess mortality can lead to a better estimation of COVID-19–associated deaths and serve as a model to enhance mortality surveillance in other US jurisdictions.     

中国10个地区成年人共病流行特征分析

目的 描述中国成年人的共病流行情况及其长期变化,以及常见的共病模式。方法 本研究纳入参与中国慢性病前瞻性研究第二次重复调查的25 033人,利用研究对象参加2004-2008年基线调查和2013-2014年第二次重复调查时采集的信息进行分析。根据自报疾病史、现场体格检查及血液样本检测等信息定义了13种慢性病或健康问题,将共病定义为同时患有≥2种慢性病或健康问题。采用系统聚类分析法描述共病模式。结果 研究对象在基线调查时的年龄为（51.5±10.1）岁,第二次重复调查时为（59.5±10.2）岁。2次调查平均间隔时间（8.0±0.8）年,共病率由33.5%上升至58.1%,人均患病数由1.15个增加至1.82个,平均每5年增长0.42个患病数。年长者、城市人群、文化程度低者的共病率较高,且患病数量随年龄的增速更快。吸烟及过量饮酒者的患病数量随年龄增速也更快。该人群中最常见的共病组合为：超重肥胖、高血压、糖尿病、中风和冠心病。结论 我国成年人群共病率较高,且随年龄增长而增加。共病情况在不同地区、文化程度水平和不同生活方式人群中存在差异。     

1990-2019年中国动脉粥样硬化心血管病疾病负担变化及其危险因素分析

目的 量化分析1990-2019年我国动脉粥样硬化心血管病（ASCVD）疾病负担及其主要危险因素影响的变化趋势。方法 利用2019年全球疾病负担（GBD2019）研究结果,以伤残调整寿命年（DALY）及其年龄标准化率为指标,分析1990-2019年我国ASCVD疾病负担和危险因素归因疾病负担的变化情况,并采用Gupta建立的分解法对人口增长、老龄化、年龄别患病率和疾病严重程度所致的DALY变化进行了量化分析。结果 2019年我国61.00%的心血管病疾病负担由ASCVD所致,缺血性心脏病的DALY较1990年增长了133.66%,其中29.57%可归因于人口增长、108.74%归因于人口老龄化、8.87%归因于年龄别患病率的增加、-13.53%归因于疾病严重程度;缺血性卒中的DALY较1990年增长了138.64%,归因于上述4部分的变化率依次为30.95%、123.38%、55.80%和-71.49%。2019年高血压依然是ASCVD首要危险因素,其次是高LDL-C,归因于饮酒的年龄标准化DALY率较1990年增幅最大（486.01%）,年均增长10.93%。结论 1990-2019年,人口老龄化是我国ASCVD疾病负担大幅增长最主要的原因,而其他可改变危险因素的不利趋势,特别是代谢性危险因素的持续流行同样不容忽视。     

2004-2018年中国老年居民慢性非传染性疾病死亡水平与变化趋势

目的分析2004-2018年中国≥65岁老年居民慢性非传染性疾病(慢性病)死亡水平及变化趋势,预测2019-2023年慢性病年龄标化死亡率。方法利用2004-2018年中国死因监测数据集中老年居民死亡数据,分析不同性别、城乡、地区的慢性病粗死亡率、年龄标化死亡率、构成比及变化趋势。采用2010年第六次全国人口普查的人口构成计算年龄标化死亡率;采用加权最小二乘法拟合Joinpoint回归模型,计算全时间段内平均年度变化百分比(AAPC)及95%可信区间;采用对数线性模型预测年龄标化死亡率。结果2004-2018年我国老年居民慢性病年龄标化死亡率从4697.05/10万降至3555.35/10万,平均每年下降2.0%(95%CI:-2.7%~-1.3%)。不同性别、城乡、地区间年龄标化死亡率呈下降趋势。东部地区(AAPC=-2.1%,95%CI:-2.8%~-1.3%)、中部地区(AAPC=-2.8%,95%CI:-3.4%~-2.1%)下降速度均快于西部地区(AAPC=-0.8%,95%CI:-1.8%~0.2%)。慢性病死亡构成比从89.82%上升至91.41%,平均每年上升0.1%(95%CI:0.1%~0.2%)。预计至2023年,男性年龄标化死亡率(3906.23/10万)仍高于女性(2708.43/10万);农村年龄标化死亡率(3283.20/10万)与城市(3250.01/10万)相接近;西部地区(3782.48/10万)与东部地区(3037.01/10万)、中部地区(3249.24/10万)的年龄标化死亡率的差距将进一步拉大。结论2004-2018年我国老年居民慢性病年龄标化死亡率呈下降趋势,死亡构成比呈上升趋势,建议以老年人群中男性居民和西部地区居民作为今后慢病防控关注的重点人群。     

Efficacy of m-Health for the detection of adverse events following immunization – The stimulated telephone assisted rapid safety surveillance (STARSS) randomised control trial

IntroductionPassive surveillance is recommended globally for the detection of adverse events following immunisation (AEFI) but this has significant challenges. Use of Mobile health for vaccine safety surveillance enables a consumer-centred approach to reporting. The Stimulated Telephone Assisted Rapid Safety Surveillance (STARSS) a randomised control trial (RCT) sought to evaluate the efficacy and acceptability of SMS for AEFI surveillance.MethodsMulti-centre RCT, participants were adult vaccinees or parents of children receiving any vaccine at a trial site. At enrolment randomisation occurred to one of two SMS groups or a control group. Prompts on days 2, 7 and 14 post-immunisation, were sent to the SMS group, to ascertain if a medical event following immunisation (MEFI) had occurred. No SMS’s were sent to the control participants. Those in the SMS who notified an MEFI were pre-randomised to complete a computer assisted telephone interview or a web based report to determine if an AEFI had occurred whilst an AEFI in the controls was determined by a search for passive reports. The primary outcome was the AEFI detection rate in the SMS group compared to controls.ResultsWe enrolled 6,338 participants, who were equally distributed across groups and who received 11,675 vaccines. The SMS group (4,225) received 12,675 surveillance prompts with 9.8% being non-compliant and not responding. In those that responded 90% indicated that no MEFI had been experienced and 184 had a verified AEFI. 6 control subjects had a reported AEFI. The AEFI detection rate was 13 fold greater in the SMS group when compared with controls (4.3 vs 0.3%).ConclusionWe have demonstrated that the STARSS methodology improves AEFI detection. Our findings should inform the wider use of SMS-based surveillance which is particularly relevant since establishing robust and novel pharmacovigilance systems is critical to monitoring novel vaccines which includes potential COVID vaccines.     

2015—2019年四川省流感哨点监测结果分析

目的 描述四川省2015—2019年流感病毒流行特征,为疫情防控提供依据。方法 对流感监测系统上报的流感样病例数据开展回顾性流行病学分析。结果 2015—2019年间,四川省共监测流感样病例标本131 477份,其中阳性标本23 844份,流感阳性率为18.14%。2015—2019年四川省优势流感亚型主要为甲型H1N1,季节性H3N2和B(Victoria)系流感。流感阳性率随月份、季节而改变,四川省流感阳性率高峰主要出现在冬季,其次为秋季。甲型流感主要在秋冬季流行,乙型流感主要在冬春季流行。流感病毒阳性检出率在5～14岁组年龄段最高。结论 四川省流感有明显的冬季流行高峰,各型别呈交替流行。秋冬季应加强流感防控工作;甲型和乙型流感好发于5～14岁群体,应继续加强对儿童学生流感的防控。     

2019年内蒙古包头市细菌耐药监测

目的 监测2019年包头市11所三级医院所有临床分离菌株的构成及对常用抗菌药物的耐药情况,为临床科室选择抗菌药物提供可靠依据。方法 对上述医院的临床分离菌采用纸片扩散法（KB法）或全自动药敏仪法进行药敏试验,按CLSI 2018年版 M - 100标准判读药敏结果,采用WHONET 2019软件进行数据分析。结果 2019年共收集上述医院非重复临床分离菌8 430株,其中革兰阳性菌2 278株,占比27.0%,革兰阴性菌6 152株,占比73.0%。葡萄球菌属中耐甲氧西林凝固酶阴性葡萄球菌（MRCNS）和耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌 (MRSA）检出率分别为65.5%和12.8%,未检出利奈唑胺、万古霉素和替考拉宁耐药菌株。粪肠球菌（EFA）对多数抗菌药物的耐药率均低于屎肠球菌（EFM）,EFA中检出2株利奈唑胺耐药菌株,EFM中检出1株替考拉宁耐药菌株、2株万古霉素耐药菌株。产超广谱β- 内酰胺酶（ESBLs）大肠埃希菌（ECO）和ESBLs（+）克雷伯菌属菌株的检出率分别为46.0%和16.8%。耐碳青霉烯大肠埃希菌（CREC）和耐碳青霉烯肺炎克雷伯菌（CRKP） 的检出率分别为0.5%和1.1%,CREC对左旋氧氟沙星的耐药率为100%,远高于CRKP的29.4%。结论 本地区ECO对喹诺酮类抗菌药物耐药率较高,应继续做好耐药监测工作,加强抗菌药物的合理使用,预防耐药菌的产生与传播。     

2011年与2017年南京市≥25岁居民归因于豆类摄入不足的缺血性心脏病疾病负担研究

目的了解2011年与2017年南京25岁及以上人群归因于豆类摄入不足的缺血性心脏病(IHD)疾病负担和期望寿命损失情况,为IHD的饮食防控策略提供数据支撑。方法本研究资料来源于2011年和2017年南京市慢性病及其危险因素监测、南京市死因监测和2017全球疾病负担(GBD)资料,采用GBD团队提供的Excel插件程序计算人群归因分值(PAF),估算豆类摄入不足导致的IHD死亡和寿命损失。使用SPSS 20.0软件进行t检验。结果2017年,南京市因豆类摄入不足导致IHD的死亡例数占IHD总死亡例数的13.73%,较2011年(12.44%)增长了10.37%。2017年南京市归因于豆类摄入不足的IHD死亡例数和过早死亡损失寿命年(YLL)分别为645例、8116人年,较2011年(449例、6610人年)分别上升43.65%、22.78%;而标化归因死亡率和标化YLL率分别由2011年的11.05/10万、155.72/10万下降至2017年的8.86/10万、118.66/10万,下降率分别为19.82%、23.80%。2017年,豆类摄入不足导致的IHD死亡使期望寿命损失0.17岁,男性、女性分别损失0.13、0.21岁;与2011年相比,2017年男性、女性及总人群归因于豆类摄入不足的期望寿命损失均上升。结论豆类摄入不足已成为影响南京市居民死亡和期望寿命的饮食危险因素之一,应积极倡导合理膳食,增加居民豆类摄入水平,从而减少心血管疾病负担。