军队男性老年人脑卒中发病与死亡因素的队列研究

目的了解军队男性老年人群脑卒中发病与死亡相关因素。方法从2005年6月30日至2006年6月30日对1987年建立的西安市22所军队干休所离退休干部队列人群进行了再次调查,统计学方法主要应用多元Cox比例风险模型进行多因素分析,由SPSS13.0软件完成。结果至2005年6月30日脑卒中发病186人,调整发病率为984.43/10万人年,其中新发脑梗死157人,新发脑出血29人;至2006年6月30日脑卒中死亡69人,死亡率为357.02/10万人年,其中脑梗死死亡26人,脑出血死亡43人;队列研究结果显示,年龄、收缩压、舒张压、既往脑动脉硬化和高血压病史与脑卒中发病相关,HR值(95%CI)分别为1.037(1.002～1.072)、1.087(1.012～1.169)、1.186(1.050～1.340)、1.515(1.006～2.281)和1.571(1.052～2.347);脑卒中死亡相关因素为年龄、收缩压、吸烟、高血压家族史、卒中家族史、体质指数、卒中、高脂血症和高血压既往病史,HR值(95%CI)分别为1.072(1.017～1.131)、4.283(1.706～10.753)、2.180(1.019～4.665)、2.069(1.066～4.014)、2.069(1.066～4.014)、0.858(0.779～0.946)、10.034(3.366～29.912)、3.351(1.194～9.406)和2.366(1.247～4.491)。结论西安地区军队男性老年人群脑卒中发病以缺血性为主,脑卒中死亡以出血性为主;发病率和死亡率均低于全国水平;控制血压、总胆固醇、总胆红素和体重水平,戒烟,控酒,预防脑动脉硬化、高脂血症和高血压可以降低该人群脑卒中发病风险。     

青年脑卒中危险因素分析

目的探讨青年脑卒中危险因素。方法对卒中组（56人）与对照组（61人）的性别、体重指数、血管病家族史、吸烟、饮酒、高血压、糖尿病、血脂代谢紊乱、心脏病、代谢综合征和多种危险因素并存进行分析比较。结果血管病家族吏、高血压、糖尿病、血脂代谢紊乱、代谢综合征和多种危险因素并存对青年脑卒中的发病有统计学意义；性别、体重指数、吸烟、饮酒、心脏病与青年脑卒中发病无统计学意义。结论血管病家族史、高血压、糖尿病、血脂代谢紊乱、代谢综合征及多种危险因素并存使青年脑卒中发病率增高，其中代谢综合征及多种危险因素并存是青年脑卒中的重要危险因素，提示预防青年脑卒中要加强综合预防需要。     

老年人吸烟及戒烟与相关死亡的前瞻性研究

目的：前瞻性探讨男性老年人吸烟及戒烟与烟草有关疾病死亡的相互关系。方法：研究对象为1987年西安市22个军队干休所的全部男性离体干部,共计1268人,基线调查时,388人为不吸烟者,419人为吸烟者,461人为戒烟者。终点指标为全死因和与烟草有关疾病死亡。结果：截止1999年,共观察14163人年,平均随访11年。共死亡299人,943人存活,26人失访。在调整了年龄,血压、体重指数,总胆固醇,甘油三酯、饮酒,体育锻炼和既往病史等因素后,多元Cox生存分析模型显示：既往吸烟与该人群相关死亡的对危险度（95％CI）分别为总死亡1．34（1．02－1．76）、慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）3．23（0．95－10．91）,肺癌、2．31（0．95－5．61）、冠心病1．60（0．81－3．19）。其死亡危险性随既吸烟量的增多和吸烟年限的延长而升高,存在明确的剂量反应关系。与继续吸烟者相比,戒烟总死亡和冠心病死亡和危险性分别下降56％和93％,但COPD的死亡危险却升高了174％。结论：（1）吸烟是中国男性老年人的主要死因之一,而戒烟降低总死亡和心血管病死亡;（2）戒烟者COPD死亡危险高于继续吸烟者的原因可能与“无病吸烟者作用”和“因病戒烟作用有关。     

上海市奉贤社区脑卒中危险因素队列研究基线调查和随访分析

目的 了解上海市奉贤社区脑卒中危险因素暴露水平并探讨各危险因素与脑卒中发病间的关系.方法　2003与2004年整群抽取上海市奉贤区两个社区≥40岁本市户籍常住人口10 565人建立脑卒中队列研究人群,调查高血压病、心脏病、糖尿病、脑卒中家族史、吸烟、饮酒等危险因素暴露状况,并进行脑血管血液动力学指标(CVHI)检测,以统一方法对CVHI进行积分,积分值＜75分为异常,随访脑卒中新发病例共78例,对研究因素进行单因素和多因素Cox回归分析.结果　2003年基线调查显示,该社区高血压病、心脏病、糖尿病、脑卒中家族史、肥胖(BMI≥28 kg/m2)、吸烟、饮酒、CVHI积分异常等八项的暴露率分别为21.14%、6.72%、1.88%、5.63%、4.17%、34.96%、17.81%、29.43%.通过2-3年脑卒中病例随访,单因素分析显示,这八项的相对危险度(RR)及其95%CI分别为:高血压病2.76(1.76～4.32)、心脏病2.19(1.16～4.14)、糖尿病1.52(0.38～6.19)、脑卒中家族史1.58(0.69～3.62)、肥胖1.24(0.45～3.38)、吸烟1.75(1.12～2.73)、饮酒2.10(1.30～3.39)、CVHI积分异常12.72(7.02～23.06).多因素Cox回归分析显示,被筛选进入回归方程的因素是吸烟和CVHI积分异常.结论 高血压病、心脏病、吸烟、饮酒、CVHI积分异常与脑卒中发病有显著的病因学联系,CVHI积分异常和吸烟是脑卒中独立的预测因子.     

我国成人适宜体重指数切点的前瞻性研究

目的 分析我国成人队列基线体重指数（BMI）和随访期间总死亡率以及心血管病发病率的关系。为超重和肥胖的切点提供验证。方法 汇总我国现有队列人群的前瞻性研究数据。分析按BMI分层的年龄调整总死亡率，以显示基线BMI和总死亡的关系。以方差倒数加权平均方法求出在控制其他危险因素后BMI对于冠心病和脑卒中发病的综合Cox回归系数，以分析BMI对于冠心病和脑卒中发病是否有独立的作用以及其作用强度。结果 汇总分析4组队列人群共76227人，合计随访745346人年，结果表明，按BMI分层的年龄调整总死亡率呈“U”形曲线，在除外随访前3年内死亡之后和仅在不吸烟者，这种“U”形关系仍然存在，在BMI18.5以下和28以上死亡率升高，Cox回归分析结果显示BMI对于冠心病和脑卒中发病有独立于其他危险因素的作用，BMI每增加2kg/m^2，冠心病，总脑卒中和缺血型卒中发病的相对危险分别增高15.4%,6.1%和18.8%，将BMI控制在24以下男性可能减少冠心病和缺血型卒中发病11%和15%，女性可能减少二者发病各22%。结论 在中国成年人群以BMI18.5为体重过低，28为肥胖切点是适宜的。     

基线体质指数与男性胃癌发病关系的前瞻性队列研究

目的 研究基线BMI与男性胃癌发病风险之间的关联。方法 基于开滦队列（2006-2015年）男性人群,收集身高、体重等流行病学信息。每两年随访1次,收集胃癌发病结局资料;检索开滦附属医院医疗信息系统、开滦集团保险系统、唐山市医疗保险系统,补充收集随访过程中可能遗漏的胃癌新发病例。以体重正常（18.5 kg/m² ≤ BMI<24.0 kg/m²）人群为参照组,利用Cox风险比例模型分析基线BMI与男性胃癌发病风险的关联,计算发病风险比（HR）及其95% CI。结果 共纳入109 600名男性,共随访860 399.79人年,中位随访时间8.8年,收集胃癌新发病例272例。和正常体重人群相比,调整年龄、文化程度、吸烟状态、饮酒频率、粉尘暴露、食盐习惯、饮茶习惯等潜在的混杂因素后,体重过轻人群（BMI<18.5 kg/m²）胃癌发病风险升高（HR=2.11,95% CI：1.23~3.62）,超重/肥胖与胃癌发病风险无统计学关联。按照年龄、文化程度、吸烟、饮酒、饮茶、粉尘暴露等进行分层分析,结果显示,高年龄组、高文化程度、不吸烟、不饮酒、不饮茶、有粉尘暴露人群中,低体重与胃癌发病关联依然有统计学意义。结论 体重过轻可能增加男性胃癌发病风险,且该关联受年龄、文化程度、吸烟、饮酒、饮茶、粉尘暴露等因素影响。     

40岁以上人群冠心病和脑卒中死亡的危险因素分析

目的　了解 1991- 1999年四川省 4 0岁及以上人群冠心病、脑卒中死亡率水平及其危险因素。方法　对 74 11例随访对象的流行病学调查资料 ,用SPSSV12软件进行数据清理及描述性分析 ,在SASV8 2软件中用非条件logistic回归进行冠心病、脑卒中死亡危险因素的筛选。 结果　1991- 1999年冠心病死亡 2 5人 ,脑卒中死亡 10 0人 ,冠心病累积死亡率 3 4‰ ,脑卒中累积死亡率13 5‰。冠心病按世界标准[1] 标化年死亡率男性为 13 4 / 10万 ,女性为 11 5 / 10万 ,脑卒中标化年死亡率男性为 6 1 0 / 10万 ,女性为 33 4 / 10万。冠心病死亡的危险因素有 :地区、年龄 (按 10岁分组 )、就业情况、高血压家族史和血压水平 (5级 ) ,脑卒中死亡的危险因素有年龄 (按 10岁分组 )、饮酒史、脑卒中既往史和血压水平 (5级 )。结论　四川省 4 0岁及其以上人群冠心病死亡率低于北京地区 ,脑卒中死亡率与国际相比属于较低水平。为减少冠心病、脑卒中死亡危险 ,应重点加强老年人群的血压监测 ,倡导健康生活方式。     

台州市高血压患病情况及其危险因素调查

目的了解台州市居民高血压患病情况及有关的危险因素。方法进行整群随机抽样，调查台州市35周岁以上的常住人口。调查内容包括：一般情况、吸烟、饮酒、高血压家族史、生活习惯、运动情况、既往史并进行血压测量。结果台州市35周岁以上人群高血压2007年患病率为27．18％（男性29．4％，女性25．5％），发病的危险因素有吸烟、饮酒等个人生活方式。结论高血压在台州市35周岁以上人群中常见，其患病与家族史、体型超重、生活方式行为、饮食等因素有关。     

体质指数与非吸烟男性肺癌发病关系的前瞻性队列研究

目的 利用前瞻性队列研究,探讨BMI与非吸烟男性肺癌发病的关系。方法 利用始建于2006年5月的开滦集团动态人群队列,收集基线调查时社会人口学资料,吸烟、饮酒等生活方式和身高、体重等测量指标及肺癌发病结局信息。采用多因素Cox比例风险回归模型分析非吸烟男性基线BMI与其肺癌发病的风险比（HR）及其95% CI。结果 截止2011年12月31日在纳入的48 799名非吸烟男性中,共计随访214 620.18人年,平均随访4.40年,共收集肺癌新发病例198例。以BMI（kg/m²）正常组（18.5≤BMI < 24.0）为参比组,调整年龄、教育程度、饮酒情况、体育锻炼、工作环境和糖尿病史后,低体重组（BMI<18.5）、超重组（24.0≤BMI<28.0）和肥胖组（BMI≥28）的HR值及其95% CI分别为1.14（0.53～2.45）、0.57（0.41～0.78）和0.61（0.38～0.97）,趋势检验差异有统计学意义（P<0.001）。将BMI作为连续性变量,调整年龄、教育程度、饮酒、体育锻炼、工作环境和糖尿病史后,BMI每增加5 kg/m²,肺癌的发病风险降低22%（HR=0.78,95% CI：0.64～0.95）。在年龄≥50岁组、锻炼频率<4次/周组、不饮酒组以及井上作业组中,BMI每增加5 kg/m²,其肺癌的发病风险分别降低26%（HR=0.74,95% CI：0.60～0.92）,24%（HR=0.76,95% CI：0.62～0.95）,20%（HR=0.80,95% CI：0.65～1.00）和23%（HR=0.77,95% CI：0.61～0.97）,剔除随访1年内新发肿瘤患者及其贡献的人年数后,结果无明显变化。结论 该队列人群中非吸烟男性的BMI与肺癌发病相关,且发病风险随BMI增加呈下降趋势。     

2359例青年脑卒中患者危险因素研究

目的探讨中国青年脑卒中患者的危险因素.方法从全国18个省、市36家医院共收集脑卒中病例 64 558例作为病例组,其中 18～45岁脑卒中患者共 6 305例,抽取 2 359例进行了脑卒中危险因素调查和特征分析;对 35～45岁的 1 988例有关危险因素水平与对照组即相同年龄正常人群脑卒中的有关危险因素水平进行比较.结果纳入研究对象的脑卒中患者平均年龄为( 39.5± 5.4)岁,缺血性卒中占 63.6%,男性占 72.7%;病例组的各项主要危险因素均高于对照组.特别是高血压病史、吸烟和饮酒( P＜ 0.001);病例组病死率为 2.5%,死亡原因主要为脑疝和中枢性的呼吸循环衰竭. 结论国内≤45岁的脑卒中占全部脑卒中 9.77%,以缺血性脑卒中为主,男性居多.青年脑卒中病死率较低,死亡原因主要为脑疝中枢性的呼吸循环衰竭.病例组脑卒中危险因素均明显高于对照组.危险因素依次排列为高血压病史、吸烟、饮酒、脑卒中病史、心脏病史、糖尿病史、高脂血症病史.     

Risk factors and 28 year morbidity and mortality of coronary heart disease in a cohort with a low incidence of the disease: the Manresa Study

BACKGROUND: To Study the incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and all-cause mortality in a cohort of men followed during 28 years, and their association with serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, glycemia, cigarette smoking and body mass index measured at baseline. METHODS: A cohort of 1,059 men aged 30 to 59 years and free of cardiovascular diseases at baseline in 1968, was reexamined every five years until 1988. The last examination was performed in 1996. Information was collected on 96.4% of the participants. RESULTS: Incidence and mortality rates from CHD and from all-causes of death per 10(5) person-years of observation were 499.80, 235.80 y 925.33, respectively. At the end of follow-up, high levels of serum cholesterol and smoking were independently associated with the incidence and mortality from CHD controlling by age, blood pressure, glycemia and BMI. Serum cholesterol, hyperglycemia and smoking were independently associated with all-cause mortality. CONCLUSIONS: In this industrial cohort of men, with relative low incidence of CHD, smoking and serum cholesterol at baseline remained associated with the incidence of CHD through 28 years of observation.     

Predictors of subsequent coronary events,stroke, and death among survivors of first hospitalized myocardial infarction

We identified predictors of prognosis among n = 2,677 health maintenance organization enrollees 30 to 79 years old who survived a first hospitalized myocardial infarction (MI) during 1986-1996 (mean follow-up 3.4 years). Independent risk factors for reinfarction/fatal coronary heart disease (CHD) (incidence = 49.0/1,000 person-years, 445 events) were age, diabetes, chronic congestive heart failure (CHF), angina, high body mass index (BMI), low diastolic blood pressure (DBP), high serum creatinine, and low/high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol. Independent risk factors for stroke (incidence = 13.0/1,000 person-years, 124 events) were age, diabetes, CHF, high DBP, and high creatinine. Independent predictors of death (incidence = 44.2/1,000 person-years, 431 events) were age, diabetes, CHF, continued smoking after MI, low DBP, high pulse rate, high creatinine, and low HDL cholesterol, while BMI had a significant U-shaped association with death (elevated risk at low and high BMI). The occurrence of study end points did not differ significantly between men and women after adjustment for other risk factors and use of preventive medical therapies, although men tended to have higher rates of reinfarction/CHD than women among older subjects. In summary, we demonstrated that the major cardiovascular risk factors age, diabetes, CHF, smoking, and dyslipidemia are important prognostic factors in the years after nonfatal MI. Elevated BMI was associated with increased risk of reinfarction/CHD and death and elevated DBP with increased risk of stroke, but we also observed high mortality among those with low BMI and high risk of recurrent coronary disease and death among those with low DBP. Finally, high creatinine was a strong, independent predictor of a variety of adverse outcomes after first MI.     

A comparison between BMI and Conicity index on predicting coronary heart disease: the Framingham Heart Study

PURPOSE: This study examined the relationship of mortality and morbidity of coronary heart disease with body mass index (BMI) and Conicity index (CI). METHODS: Among 5209 Framingham Heart Study participants, 1882 men and 2373 women had waist and weight measurement at the 4th examination period and height measured on the 5th visit. These were used for BMI and CI. RESULTS: During a 24-year follow-up, 597 men and 468 women developed CHD and 248 men and 150 women died from CHD associated causes. In men the relative risks (RR) (95% confidence interval) adjusted for age, hypertension, diabetes, smoking status, and total cholesterol for CHD incidence in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th quartiles of BMI were 1.28 (1.0, 1.65), 1.45 (1.13, 1.86), and 1.53 (1.19, 1.96). The RR for CHD incidence in the 4th quartile of BMI in women was 1.56 (1.16, 2.08). No CI quartiles were risk factors for CHD incidence. There was 86% higher risk of CHD related death in the 4th quartile of BMI than the 1st quartile of BMI in women. In men no significantly higher risks of death were found across the quartiles of BMI. No associations were found between CI quartiles and CHD mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity as measured by BMI is an important risk factor for CHD incidence in men and women and for CHD mortality in women. CI was not associated with an increase in CHD incidence or mortality. Thus, BMI is a better marker than CI for predicting CHD incidence and mortality.     

老年男性保健人群六年累计缺血陛心血管病发病率及其危险因素的前瞻陛研究

目的 研究老年保健人群6年累计缺血性心血管病(ICVD)的发病率及其相关危险因素.方法 基线人群为2003年5月某医院数据库记录在案的、出生于1938年1月1日前(即年龄＞65岁)的所有老年保健对象,剔除基线时已患有ICVD者.收集的危险因素有:基线时年龄、性别、体重指数、收缩压、血总胆固醇浓度、血甘油三酯浓度、血高密度脂蛋白胆固醇(HDL-C)浓度、血肌酐浓度、血载脂蛋白A1浓度、糖尿病、吸烟,以人年作为观察时间,计算基线危险因素不同分期水平下的人年发病率及累计发病率,进行单因素分析.使用Cox比例风险回归模型进行多因素分析.结果 基线人群为2271名男性老年人,6年内ICVD累计发病率为23.56%,人年发病率达到了45.41‰.单因素分析表明,与ICVD事件正相关的变量是:收缩压、体重指数、血总胆固醇水平、血甘油三酯水平、血载脂蛋白A1水平、糖尿病、吸烟;与ICVD事件负相关的变量是:血HDL-C浓度、血肌酐浓度;多元Cox比例风险模型的分析结果显示:收缩压、糖尿病、血总胆固醇、体重指数是最主要的危险因素,血HDL-C是主要的保护因素.结论 老年保健人群ICVD发病率较高.控制血压、血糖,提高血HDL-C水平可能是降低未来ICVD事件最为有效的措施.     

Obesity in 70-year-old subjects as a risk factor for 15-year coronary heart disease incidence

OBJECTIVE: To investigate the role of obesity in general and waist circumference (WC) and BMI in particular as risk factors for 15-year incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in the elderly. RESEARCH METHODS AND PROCEDURES: This prospective study was based on 1597 (737 males and 860 females) 70-year-olds free from CHD and participants of three birth cohorts examined in 1971 to 1972 (Cohort I), 1976 to 1977 (Cohort II), and 1981 to 1982 (Cohort III) at G?teborg, Sweden. Fifteen-year incidence of CHD (fatal and nonfatal) was ascertained from follow-up examinations and registers. Relative risk (RR) for first ever CHD in reference to the lowest quartiles of WC and BMI was calculated from Cox regression. RESULTS: In males, RRs for CHD in the highest WC and BMI quartiles were 1.36 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.00 to 1.85] and 1.42 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.92), respectively, after adjustment for cohorts, smoking habits, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, and total cholesterol. In men, the risk associated with WC was independent of BMI. Neither WC nor BMI was related to CHD risk in females. After exclusion of first 5-year all-cause deaths, the adjusted RRs in the highest WC and BMI quartiles in males were 1.47 (95% CI 1.06 to 2.04) and 1.42 (1.04 to 1.92), respectively. In females, a significantly higher RR of 1.41 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.94) was observed in the second BMI quartile only after such exclusions. DISCUSSION: WC, an indicator of both central and general obesity, appears to be a stronger predictor of CHD than BMI in elderly males, but in females, obesity was not a risk factor for CHD.     

Lifestyle factors,cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality in middle-aged and elderly women: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors, incidence and death increases from around the time of menopause comparing to women in reproductive age. A healthy lifestyle can prevent CVD, but it is unclear which lifestyle factors may help maintain and improve cardiovascular health for women after menopausal transition. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies to evaluate the association between modifiable lifestyle factors (specifically smoking, physical activity, alcohol intake, and obesity), with CVD and mortality in middle-aged and elderly women. Pubmed, Embase, among other databases and reference lists were searched until February 29th, 2016. Study specific relative risks (RR) were meta-analyzed using random effect models. We included 59 studies involving 5,358,902 women. Comparing current versus never smokers, pooled RR were 3.12 (95% CI 2.15–4.52) for CHD incidence, 2.09 (95% CI 1.51–2.89) for stroke incidence, 2.76 (95% CI 1.62–4.71) for CVD mortality and 2.22 (95% CI 1.92–2.57) for all-cause mortality. Physical activity was associated with a decreased risk of 0.74 (95% CI 0.67–0.80) for overall CVD, 0.71 (95% CI 0.67–0.75) for CHD, 0.77 (95% CI 0.70–0.85) for stroke, 0.70 (95% CI 0.58–0.84) for CVD mortality and 0.71 (95% CI 0.65–0.78) for all-cause mortality. Comparing moderate drinkers versus non-drinkers, the RR was 0.72 (95% CI 0.56–0.91) for CHD, 0.63 (95% CI 0.57–0.71) for CVD mortality and 0.80 (95% CI 0.76–0.84) for all-cause mortality. For women with BMI 30–35 kg/m² the risk was 1.67 (95% CI 1.24–2.25) for CHD and 2.3 (95% CI 1.56–3.40) for CVD mortality, compared to normal weight. Each 5 kg/m² increase in BMI was associated with 24% (95% CI 16–33%) higher risk for all-cause mortality. This meta-analysis suggests that physical activity and moderate alcohol intake were associated with a reduced risk for CVD and mortality. Smoking and higher BMI were associated with an increased risk of these endpoints. Adherence to a healthy lifestyle may substantially lower the burden of CVD and reduce the risk of mortality among middle-aged and elderly women. However, this review highlights important gaps, as lack of standardized methods in assessing lifestyle factors and lack of accurate information on menopause status, which should be addressed by future studies in order to understand the role of menopause on the association between lifestyle factors and cardiovascular events.     

Parental history of coronary heart disease, hypertension, diabetes, and stroke: Relationship to coronary heart disease risk factor variables in their adult children

Relationships of parental (familial) history of coronary heart disease, stroke, hypertension, and diabetes to major coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors were examined in 738 adults (average age, 40 years) in the Cincinnati Lipid Research Clinics Princeton School study. Men reporting parental CHD had higher plasma triglyceride and higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure than comparison group men reporting no parental CHD, stroke, hypertension, or diabetes. Women reporting parental CHD had higher plasma triglycerides than comparison group women reporting no parental CHD, stroke, hypertension, or diabetes. Men reporting stroke in one parent had higher total plasma cholesterol and triglyceride levels than comparison men. Women reporting stroke in one parent had higher triglyceride levels than comparison group women. Women reporting hypertension in one parent had higher mean triglyceride and systolic blood pressure than comparison women. Men and women reporting diabetes in one parent had higher triglyceride than comparison adults. Matching men whose fathers had died of CHD with those whose fathers were free of CHD revealed significant increments in triglyceride levels, systolic, and diastolic blood pressure in the men with positive family history of CHD. Matching women whose fathers had died of CHD with those whose fathers were free of CHD revealed higher total plasma cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and Quetelet index. In men, categorical assessment by CHD risk factor levels (low, intermediate, high), revealed that plasma triglycerides and systolic blood pressure were positively associated with a parental history of CHD, while high-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely related. In women, similar observations were made for triglycerides. Family history is a practical tool for identification of risk to CHD, hypertension, stroke, and diabetes. Serial risk factor measurements in offspring from CHD-, hypertension-, stroke-, and diabetes-positive families should have considerable utility in early recognition and documentation of CHD risk factor levels which, in turn, should facilitate primary intervention designed to ameliorate or prevent the development of CHD.     

Estimating the effect of cardiovascular risk factors on all-cause mortality and incidence of coronary heart disease using G-estimation: the atherosclerosis risk in communities study

Standard methods for analysis of cohort studies may give biased estimates of exposure effects in the presence of time-varying confounding. Such effects may instead be estimated by using G-estimation. This study aimed to examine the relations between important cardiovascular risk factors and all-cause mortality and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), accounting for confounding between exposures over time using G-estimation. Results were compared with those from standard survival analyses (e.g., Weibull regression) with time-updated covariates. The dataset consisted of all participants in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities cohort study who had complete data on the first two of four visits, giving a sample of 13,898 people at baseline. Death and occurrence of CHD or stroke were recorded. G-estimated associations between several risk factors and mortality/CHD incidence differed from those estimated using standard survival analysis. The associations between mortality/CHD incidence and smoking, presence of diabetes, and use of antihypertensives were stronger than the standard survival estimates, while the G-estimated effect of low density lipoprotein and high density lipoprotein cholesterol on CHD incidence were more linear than the standard estimate. Complex relations between exposures over time may lead to biased exposure effect estimates in standard survival analyses. G-Estimation can be used to overcome such biases, and thus may have important implications for the analysis of observational studies.     

Smoking,blood pressure and serum cholesterol-effects on 20-year mortality

BACKGROUND: To study the impact of smoking and blood pressure conditional on serum total cholesterol levels, we investigated the 20-year mortality risk associated with high systolic blood pressure (> or =140 mmHg) and smoking, at low (<5.2 mmol/Liter), medium (5.2-6.49mmol/Liter), and high (> or =6.5 mmol/Liter) serum total cholesterol levels. METHODS: The study population comprised a cohort of 50,000 men and women age 30-54 years, examined between 1974 and 1980, in five Dutch towns. The duration of follow-up averaged 20 years. Age-adjusted relative risks (RRs) for mortality from coronary heart disease (CHD), cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and all causes were estimated, for six risk profiles (based on levels of total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure and smoking), using Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: Given a low cholesterol level, smoking had a larger impact than elevated blood pressure on CHD, CVD and all-cause mortality. The combination of elevated blood pressure and smoking among persons with low cholesterol was associated with RRs of 3.0 for CHD, 6.0 for CVD and 4.1 for all-cause mortality in men, and 2.3, 3.6 and 2.6, respectively, in women. Among persons with high cholesterol, the combination of high blood pressure and smoking was associated with RRs of 9.7 for CHD, 13.9 for CVD and 5.7 for all-cause mortality in men, and 15.9, 9.3 and 4.3, respectively, in women. For each risk profile, the absolute number of CHD, CVD and total deaths was larger in men than in women. CONCLUSIONS: The results demonstrate the potential power of a multifactorial approach to risk factor reduction in the prevention of cardiovascular diseases and all-cause mortality.