山西省2009-2020年手足口病流行特征及时空聚集性分析

目的 分析山西省手足口病流行特征及时空聚集性特征。方法 资料来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统传染病报告信息管理系统2009-2020年山西省手足口病数据,运用描述流行病学方法、Joinpoint回归、空间自相关分析和时空扫描对山西省手足口病进行分析。结果 山西省2009-2020年共报告手足口病病例293 477例,年均报告发病率为67.64/10万（293 477/433 867 454）,重症率为5.36/10万（2 326/433 867 454）,重症比例为0.79%（2 326/293 477）,死亡率为0.015/10万（66/433 867 454）,病死率为22.49/10万（66/293 477）。手足口病报告发病率、重症率、死亡率和病死率均呈下降趋势。主要的高发人群为0~5岁散居儿童和托幼儿童。手足口病发病存在明显的季节性变化,每年有两个发病高峰,主高峰为6-7月,次高峰为9-11月,高发期为4-11月。实验室共确诊病例13 942例,确诊率为4.75%（13 942/293 477）,其中肠道病毒A71型（EV-A71）阳性4 438例（35.11%,4 438/293 477）,柯萨奇病毒A16型（CV-A16）阳性4 609例（33.06%,4 609/293 477）,其他肠道病毒阳性4 895例（31.83%,4 895/293 477）。山西省手足口病存在空间正自相关（Moran''s I值介于0.12~0.58,均P<0.05）即存在空间聚集性,高值聚集区主要分布在山西省中部太原市、南部临汾市、运城市和晋东南地区长治市。时空扫描探测到1个一类聚集区和8个二类聚集区,其中一类聚集区（RR=2.65,LLR=22 387.42,P<0.001）位于山西省太原市和晋中市,包括12个县（区）,聚集时间为2009年4月1日至2018年11月30日。结论 山西省2009-2020年手足口病存在明显的时空聚集性,疫情总体呈下降趋势,重点区域为地级市的市中心所在区及与其相邻县（区）,应加强对手足口病其他肠道病毒监测及型别区分。     

甘肃省2009－2013年流行性腮腺炎发病时空扫描分析

目的 使用空间统计学的方法,分析甘肃省2009－2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率的时空分布特征,探索发病的时空聚集区。方法 利用甘肃省2009－2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率数据,以区(县)水平计算其空间分布的全局、局部自相关系数,并分析时空分布特征。结果 甘肃省2009－2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率存在空间相关性(P< 0.001);局部G统计量分析显示热点区域主要分布于河西地区,冷点区域主要分布于天水、陇南及庆阳的部分县(区)。时空分析结果显示,甘肃省2009－2013年流行性腮腺炎报告发病率存在时空聚集性,高发病率最大可能聚集区分布于河西地区,聚集时间为2012－2013年(RR=3.05,LLR=4 670.995,P< 0.001),低发病率最大可能聚集区分布于陇东地区,聚集时间为2009－2010年(RR=0.36,LLR=1 980.686,P< 0.001)。结论 甘肃省2009－2013年流行性腮腺炎发病率存在空间和时空聚集区域,对流行性腮腺炎监测及防控策略的制定具有重要意义。     

我国澳门地区2011－2016年肠道病毒感染时空分析

目的 了解我国澳门地区近年肠道病毒感染的时空分布规律。方法 基于2011－2016年澳门地区卫生局流行病学调查确认的学前期至小学教育机构肠道病毒感染事件，使用回顾性时空分析法，并用伯努利模型作模拟。事件的描述性分析使用SPSS 20.0软件，时空聚集性扫描使用SaTScan 9.4.4软件，利用Google Earth软件呈现事件的地理信息。结果 2011－2016年澳门地区共有330起肠道病毒感染事件，其中2014年最多为101起（30.6%），多出现在每年5、6月。澳门岛东北部于2011－2013年有个半径为0.7 km的事件聚集区（对数似然率为13.4，P<0.001），RR=1.4。结论 澳门地区应在每年2－3月开展预防肠道病毒感染，其重点为澳门岛的东北部。     

甘肃省2009－2013年肺结核发病的时空聚集性研究

目的 分析2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率的时空及发病聚集区分布特征。方法 采用空间统计学方法, 利用2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率数据, 以区(县)水平计算其空间分布的全局、局部自相关系数, 并分析时空分布特征。结果 2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率存在空间相关性(P<0.001);局部G统计量分析显示热点区域主要分布于河西地区、临夏州、定西部分县区(渭源县、漳县、岷县、安定区), 冷点区域主要分布于兰州市、定西地区部分县区(陇西县、通渭县)、天水市、平凉市及庆阳市部分县区;时空分析结果显示, 2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率存在时空聚集性, 高发病率最大可能聚集区分布于河西地区, 聚集时间为2009－2010年(LLR=3 031.10, RR=2.27, P<0.001), 低发病率最大可能聚集区分布于兰州市, 聚集时间为2011－2013年(LLR=1 545.52, RR=0.37, P<0.001)。结论 2009－2013年甘肃省肺结核报告发病率存在空间和时空聚集区域, 河西地区是甘肃省肺结核防控的重点地区。     

浙江省2013年麻疹疫情时空分布特征

目的 探讨浙江省麻疹疫情的时空演变规律。方法 数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统和中国免疫规划信息管理系统,采用Power-law的时空多成分模型拟合浙江省各县(市、区)2013年麻疹逐日发病个案数据,通过时间自相关、局部特性、空间流行等成分值比较各县(市、区)麻疹的流行特征。结果 浙江省2013年麻疹报告总例数为1494例,发病率为2.72/10万;Power-law算法相比一阶确定性邻近矩阵,模型拟合后的赤池信息量准则更低;麻疹疫情后续传播影响较大的区域主要是柯桥区、萧山区和越城区(时间自相关成分分别为1.39、0.88和0.77);麻疹本地发病风险较大的区域主要是柯桥区、衢江区和萧山区(局部特性成分分别为4.06、3.74和3.55);麻疹疫情受邻近区域影响较大主要是柯桥区、上虞区和建德市(空间流行成分分别为3.08、2.54和2.21)。结论 浙江省各县(市、区)麻疹疫情的时空流行特征存在异质性,针对性地采取相关措施更易控制麻疹疫情。     

陕西省2009－2018年手足口病流行特征及动态变化分析

目的 了解陕西省手足口病流行特征及动态变化特点,为科学防控手足口病提供依据。方法 数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统2009－2018年陕西省手足口病报告病例,采用动态几何数列平均法和圆形分布法对其流行特征进行描述和分析。结果 2009－2018年陕西省手足口病年均发病率为140.04/10万,发病率呈上升趋势,死亡率和病死率均呈波动性下降。发病率最高的依次为1～岁组（3 494.24/10万）、2～岁组（2 734.79/10万）和3～岁组（2 608.58/10万）,报告死亡率最高的依次为1～岁组（1.42/10万）、2～岁组（0.77/10万）和0～岁组（0.53/10万）。发病率增长速度最快的是1～岁组和0～岁组,平均增长速度分别是17.89%和17.05%。年均报告发病率位居前3位的分别是西安市（251.34/10万）、渭南市（161.21/10万）和咸阳市（123.73/10万）,均位于关中平原地区。10个地级市的发病率平均增长速度均>0;多个地级市的重症比例呈不同程度下降趋势。圆形分布法推测的发病高峰时间为每年的4月10－11日,高发月份为每年的4－7月。2018年的肠道病毒71型的构成比仅为26.47%（1 303/4 922）。2014－2018年柯萨奇病毒A组16型的构成比在20.06%（753/3 753）～23.08%（855/3 705）之间。其他肠道病毒构成比从2009年的6.09%（14/230）增加到2018年的51.91%（2 555/4 922）。结论 2009－2018年陕西省手足口病的重点人群为<3岁幼儿,总体发病率呈上升趋势,而死亡率、病死率呈下降趋势,大部分地区的重症比例呈下降趋势。病原构成也随时间的发展不断变化。     

2013-2018年中国结核病空间聚集性分析

目的 分析2013-2018年中国结核病以县（区）为单位的空间聚集性特征及其变化趋势。方法 数据来源于中国疾病预防控制信息系统结核病信息管理系统,以2013-2018年全国各县（区）结核病登记数据和同期人口数据为基础,描述2013-2018年结核病疫情的空间分布特征,采用SaTScan 9.6软件对2013-2018年以县（区）为单位的结核病登记率进行空间扫描,通过扫描窗口下的对数似然比（LLR）和P值判断结核病聚集区的位置和范围,在此基础上分析聚集区结核病发病的RR值。结果 2013-2018年,全国结核病登记率基本呈缓慢下降趋势。全国范围内存在多个空间高值聚集区,主要位于西部的新疆维吾尔自治区（新疆）、西藏自治区（西藏）、陕西省、四川省、重庆市、云南省、贵州省、广西壮族自治区（广西）,中东部的内蒙古自治区、湖北省、湖南省、江西省、广东省、海南省。结核病空间聚集区覆盖的县（区）数量呈缓慢下降趋势,从2013年的1 112个下降到2018年的806个。新疆南疆地区、西藏西部地区的结核病聚集区相比于其他地区,结核病发病的RR值始终维持在较高水平（RR>3.0）。结论 2013-2018年我国结核病聚集区域覆盖的县（区）数量逐渐减少,聚集区主要分布于西部、中部的多个省份,应加强结核病聚集区的结核病患者健康教育和早期发现等防控工作,防止结核病疫情的扩散。西部地区不仅存在结核病聚集性,且结核病发病RR值较高,应加强结核病患者的治疗管理等工作。     

江苏省3个城市2012-2015年手足口病聚集性与暴发疫情监测分析

目的 分析江苏省无锡、常州、连云港3个城市2012-2015年手足口病聚集性和暴发疫情的流行病学特征及其影响因素,为全省手足口病的防控提供科学依据。方法 依据《手足口病聚集性和暴发疫情处置工作规范（2012版）》,主动收集3个城市2012-2015年手足口病聚集性和暴发疫情资料,实验室确认试验采用荧光定量RT-PCR 方法,分析描述疫情的时间、地区、场所分布及其规模,采用logistic回归模型分析疫情罹患率和持续时间的影响因素。结果 2012-2015年3个城市共报告手足口病疫情1 425起（其中聚集性疫情1 314起,暴发疫情111起）。发病时间主要集中在每年3-6月和9-12月,分别占58.18%（829/1 425）和33.68%（480/1 425）;无锡市报告的疫情较多,占59.30%（845/1 425）;疫情场所主要在托幼机构,占68.63%（978/1 425）。931起聚集性和暴发疫情经实验室确认试验显示,2012年、2014年以肠道病毒71型（EV71）和柯萨奇病毒A组16型（Cox A16）两种病毒株主导流行,2013年、2015年分别以单一病毒株EV71和Cox A16为优势毒株。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,疫情的罹患率与周围环境卫生状况有关,卫生状况越好,罹患率越小（中 vs. 差：OR=0.150,95%CI：0.034～0.667;好 vs. 差：OR=0.072,95%CI：0.016～0.317）;疫情持续时间与报告的及时性有关,报告时间越晚,疫情的持续时间越长（4～7 d vs. 1～3 d：OR=3.452,95%CI：2.293～5.198;8 d vs. 1～3 d：OR=12.108,95%CI：7.767～18.763）。结论 江苏省3个城市手足口病聚集性和暴发疫情的时间特征呈现双峰分布,病毒型别存在年份差异,托幼机构是疫情主要场所,疫情报告的及时性对控制疫情起关键作用。     

ARIMA乘积季节模型在陕西省手足口病预测中的应用

目的 应用自回归求和移动平均（ARIMA）乘积季节模型预测陕西省手足口病发病人数。方法 利用R软件对2009年1月至2015年6月手足口病数据构建ARIMA乘积季节模型,同时利用2015年7-12月实际发病人数与模型拟合数据比较,评价模型的预测性能,预测2016-2017年的手足口病发病人数。结果 陕西省手足口病发病人数具有明显的季节性,建立了ARIMA（2,1,0）×（1,1,0）₁₂乘积季节模型,预测方程为（1-B）（1-B₁₂）Ln（X_t）=（（1-1.000B）/（（1-0.532B-0.363B²）（1-0.644B₁₂-0.454B₁₂²）））ε_t,与2015年7-12月实际发病人数比较,绝对误差的平均值为531.535,相对误差的平均值为0.114,预测2016-2017年陕西省手足口病发病人数与2015年基本保持一致。结论 ARIMA（2,1,0）×（1,1,0）₁₂乘积季节模型可用于陕西省手足口病的发病人数预测。     

2011-2018年中国手足口病发病的时空特征及影响因素研究

目的 分析我国手足口病的时空特征,探讨社会、经济、人口和卫生服务等因素对我国手足口病发病的影响,为手足口病疫情防控提供参考依据。方法 采用贝叶斯时空模型对手足口病数据进行拟合,评估手足口病的时空变化,并识别手足口病发病风险与社会、经济、人口和卫生服务等因素的潜在关联。结果 2011-2018年,我国共报告手足口病例17 118 050例,死亡2 283例,2011-2014年报告发病率呈波动上升趋势,2014-2018年报告发病率呈波动下降趋势,报告死亡率一直呈波动下降趋势。手足口病的发病具有空间聚集性,报告发病率最高的地区为华南地区且为热点区域及高风险区域,报告发病率最低的为西北地区,冷点区域及低风险区域也集中在其部分区域。手足口病发病风险与人均地区生产总值（RR=3.54）、每万人规模以上工业企业单位数（RR=1.61）、城市化率（RR=3.00）、人口出生率（RR=2.36）、每万人医疗机构床位数（RR=3.40）和人均公园绿地面积（RR=0.57）有关。结论 2011-2018年我国手足口病防控重点区域为东南沿海地区,在加快城市化进程的同时需考虑增加人均公园绿地面积,以降低手足口病的发病率。     

The human drama of genetics: 'hard' and 'soft' media representations of inherited breast cancer

This paper examines media coverage of 'breast cancer genetics', and explores its implications for public understanding. We present a content analysis of coverage in British newspapers and look at a variety of popular forms, including women's magazines, television soap opera and radio drama. Genetic/inherited risk receives a great deal of coverage across a wide range of media formats and outlets. Much of this attention has focused on individuals from 'high risk families' and dilemmas around prophylactic mastectomies. Through examining media coverage, combined with interviews with media personnel and their sources, we show why this story proved so attractive to the media and highlight the different production values which influence coverage. Finally, we introduce preliminary findings from focus group discussions to demonstrate how such 'human interest' framing has engaged audience attention and influenced public understandings. The paper concludes by highlighting the implications for analysing, predicting, and engaging with, media representations of science.     

Worker education in the primary prevention of occupational dermatoses

This paper reports the evaluation of a skin care education programmeconducted on a fine chemicals manufacturing site where over1,000 employees are located. Approximately 60% are involvedin chemical manufacture. Over a 12 month period production staffreceived training in prevention of occupational dermatoses linkedto a site-wide poster initiative. The incidence of new casesof occupational dermatoses fell from 0.055 (70 cases in 1,277employees) to 0.021 (27 cases in 1,277 employees) before andafter the intervention respectively (p<0.0001). After otherfactors such as chemicals handled, observer bias and changesin reporting related to socioeconomic climate were taken intoaccount it is concluded that this study demonstrates the importanceof worker education as a tool for primary prevention of disease.Training materials such as video and poster presentations maybe effectively used in the chemical manufacturing industry asan adjunct to prevention and control of exposure to substanceshazardous to the skin. Such methods may also be used in otherindustries where there are significant risks of dermatoses.     

Regional Variation in Travel-related Illness acquired in Africa,March 1997–May 2011

To understand geographic variation in travel-related illness acquired in distinct African regions, we used the GeoSentinel Surveillance Network database to analyze records for 16,893 ill travelers returning from Africa over a 14-year period. Travelers to northern Africa most commonly reported gastrointestinal illnesses and dog bites. Febrile illnesses were more common in travelers returning from sub-Saharan countries. Eleven travelers died, 9 of malaria; these deaths occurred mainly among male business travelers to sub-Saharan Africa. The profile of illness varied substantially by region: malaria predominated in travelers returning from Central and Western Africa; schistosomiasis, strongyloidiasis, and dengue from Eastern and Western Africa; and loaisis from Central Africa. There were few reports of vaccine-preventable infections, HIV infection, and tuberculosis. Geographic profiling of illness acquired during travel to Africa guides targeted pretravel advice, expedites diagnosis in ill returning travelers, and may influence destination choices in tourism.     

The design of hazard risk assessment matrices for ranking occupational health risks and their application in mining and minerals processing

Two hazard risk assessment matrices for the ranking of occupational health risks are described. The qualitative matrix uses qualitative measures of probability and consequence to determine risk assessment codes for hazard-disease combinations. A walk-through survey of an underground metalliferous mine and concentrator is used to demonstrate how the qualitative matrix can be applied to determine priorities for the control of occupational health hazards. The semi-quantitative matrix uses attributable risk as a quantitative measure of probability and uses qualitative measures of consequence. A practical application of this matrix is the determination of occupational health priorities using existing epidemiological studies. Calculated attributable risks from epidemiological studies of hazard-disease combinations in mining and minerals processing are used as examples. These historic response data do not reflect the risks associated with current exposures. A method using current exposure data, known exposure-response relationships and the semi-quantitative matrix is proposed for more accurate and current risk rankings.     

Psychopathological features of a patient population of targets of workplace bullying

BACKGROUND: A strong association between workplace bullying and subsequent anxiety and depression, indicated by empirical research, suggests that bullying is an aetiological factor for mental health problems. AIMS: To evaluate levels of stress and anxiety-depression disorder developed by targets of workplace bullying together with outcome at 12 months and to characterize this population in terms of psychopathology and sociodemographic features. METHODS: Forty-eight patients (36 women and 12 men) meeting Leymann Inventory of Psychological Terror criteria for bullying were included in a prospective study. Evaluations were performed at first consultation and at 12 months using a standard clinical interview, a visual analogue scale of stress, the Hospital Anxiety and Depression (HAD) scale, the Beech scale of stress in the workplace and a projective test (Picture-Frustration Study). RESULTS: At first consultation, 81% of patients showed high levels of perceived stress at work and 83 and 52% presented with anxiety or depression, respectively. At 12 months, only 19% of working patients expressed a feeling of stress at work. There was a significant change in symptoms of anxiety while there was no change in symptoms of depression. Stress at work and depression influenced significatively capacity to go back to work. At 12-month assessments, workers showed a significantly better score on the HAD scale than non-workers. Over half the targets presented a neuroticism-related predominant personality trait. CONCLUSION: Workplace bullying can have severe mental health repercussions, triggering serious and persistent underlying disorders.     

The rise and fall in incidence of malignant mesothelioma from a British Naval Dockyard, 1979-1999

BACKGROUND: The incidence of malignant mesothelioma in Britain is predicted to rise over the next 15-25 years because of past failure to protect the workforce against inhalation of asbestos. In British Naval dockyards, alternative insulation materials and respiratory protection were introduced from the mid-1960s. Aims This study was carried out to investigate the effects of these control measures on mesothelioma deaths in dockyard workers. METHODS: Cases of mesothelioma of the pleura and peritoneum between 1979 and 1999 in workers from the Devonport Naval Dockyard, south-west England, were sought from coroners' and medico-legal records. RESULTS: Three hundred and one cases were identified, 7% peritoneal. The peak incidence occurred in 1991 with 25 cases per annum (quadratic model fit R(2) = 74.2%, P < 0.001) and we predict that by 2003 the incidence will fall to fewer than five cases per annum. The mean time between first exposure and presentation was 48.5 years [95% confidence interval (CI) = 47.3-49.8], but this was significantly shorter in the more heavily exposed trades, when compared with the less heavily exposed (42 years, 95% CI = 39.0-45.0, versus 49.5 years, 95% CI = 48.2-50.9). Those with higher exposure were also at significantly greater risk of peritoneal disease (P < 0.023, Fisher's exact test). CONCLUSION: The reduction in incidence of mesothelioma is greater than can be accounted for by reduction in numbers of dockyard workers over the last 50 years. Changes in insulation materials and improved industrial hygiene measures introduced into the Devonport Dockyard from the mid-1960s have resulted in an earlier decline in the incidence of malignant mesothelioma than that predicted for the British workforce as a whole.     

Organophosphate toxicity and occupational exposure

The ubiquitous organophosphates present a continuing health hazard in agriculture, public health eradication programmes and as chemical warfare agents. Despite significant progress in understanding the potential mechanisms of toxicity far beyond the commonly accepted mechanism of cholinesterase inhibition in intentional exposures, the precise health effects following occupational exposures are yet to be completely defined. A much greater understanding exists of the clinical features of organophosphate poisoning. These are characterized by a triphasic response involving an initial acute cholinergic phase, an intermediate syndrome (both associated with high mortality) and a disabling but non-lethal delayed polyneuropathy. The delayed polyneuropathy may occur in the absence of the cholinergic or intermediate phases. However, progress is still required in order to improve the quantification and assessment of occupational exposures and the implementation of appropriate preventive measures. Finally, evidence-based guidelines for appropriate or optimal therapeutic interventions following poisoning are required urgently and collaborative work with colleagues in developing countries, where the occurrence of organophosphate exposures is more frequent, may provide the answers.     

Miliaria rubra of the lower limbs in underground miners

This report documents a case series of miliaria rubra of the lower limbs in miners at a deep underground metalliferous mine in tropical arid Australia. During the summer months of February and March 1999, all cases of miliaria rubra of the lower limbs in underground miners seen at the mine's medical centre were clinically examined and administered a questionnaire. Twenty-five patients were seen, an incidence of 56.4 cases per million man-hours. Miliaria rubra was most often located between the ankle and knee (88% of cases). Twenty-four percent had concurrent folliculitis and 20% had concurrent tinea. Thirty-two percent had a personal history of asthma. Walking through ground-water and splashing of the legs was common. Three to 4 weeks of sedentary duties in air conditioning was generally required to achieve resolution of miliaria rubra. The incidence of miliaria rubra of the lower limbs is 38% of the incidence of heat exhaustion at the same mine. The length of disablement is greater, however. Atopics may be at increased risk of miliaria rubra. Control measures are discussed.     

Planning research

The starting point for any research project should be a question.Once this has been defined and the relevant scientific literaturereviewed, a protocol should be drawn up. This will be used notonly as a guide to the conduct of the study and in the preparationof the final report, but also in seeking any financial supportand approvals that are required for the investigation. A protocolis normally arranged in sections covering the background tothe study, the question(s) that it will address, the methodsthat will be used for the collection and analysis of data, thestatistical power of the investigation (where relevant), anyethical considerations, and the financial input that will beneeded. A pilot study is often helpful where aspects of thestudy method are untried or of uncertainvalidity.     

Stress in the Norwegian police service

BACKGROUND: High levels of stress have been attributed to the conditions of police work, but there is little empirical evidence for this. AIMS: To develop a new instrument to measure job stress in the police; to assess the most severe and frequent police stressors; to compare levels of stress according to the demographic and organizational factors; and to study stress in relation to personality traits, work locus of control and coping strategies. METHODS: A comprehensive nationwide questionnaire survey of 3272 Norwegian police at all hierarchical levels, including the Norwegian Police Stress Survey (NPSS), the Job Stress Survey, the Basic Character Inventory, the Work Locus of Control Scale, and the Coping Strategies Scale. RESULTS: Work injuries were appraised as the most stressful but least frequent stressor and job pressure was reported the least severe but most frequent stressor. Females experienced job stressors less frequently, but appraised them as more severe than men did. Older police officers reported more job pressure severity and fewer work injuries. The police in districts where peer support was planned but not implemented, and who worked in districts with more than 50,000 inhabitants, perceived the lack of support more severely than others. The correlations between stress and personality traits, work locus of control, and coping were moderate. CONCLUSIONS: The NPSS captures police-specific stressors that are not adequately measured by global stress instruments. The study of stress in police work should preferably involve a nationwide use of police-specific stress instruments.