长沙体检人群身体质量指数与脂肪肝关系的探讨

目的 分析身体质量指数(body mass index, BMI)与脂肪肝的关系,明确发生脂肪肝的BMI临界值,以便及时识别并干预脂肪肝高危人群。 方法 收集2020年1月—2021年8月在湖南省人民医院健康管理中心进行体检的成年人健康体检资料24 019例,根据我国目前超重和肥胖标准分成体重过轻组、正常组、超重组和肥胖组,使用二元logistic 回归分析评估四组患脂肪肝的风险,利用受试者工作特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve, ROC曲线)判断发生脂肪肝的BMI临界值。 结果 ①本次所选取长沙地区体检人群的脂肪肝患病率为35.64%;②二元logistic回归分析矫正混杂因素后显示超重组和肥胖组患脂肪肝的风险分别是正常组的2.946倍和9.168倍(P<0.05),表明BMI增高是脂肪肝的独立危险因素;③超重组和肥胖组患脂肪肝的风险在不同的甘油三酯和高密度脂蛋白胆固醇水平中存在差异(P_交互作用<0.05)。④ROC曲线显示,男性发生脂肪肝的BMI 临界值为24.60,曲线下面积(area under curve, AUC)为0.814,女性发生脂肪肝的BMI临界值为23.20,AUC为0.848。 结论 BMI增高是脂肪肝的独立危险因素,对脂肪肝有一定的预测价值,当男性BMI＞24.60、女性BMI＞23.20时,应重视体重管理,以减少脂肪肝的发生。     

我国城乡基层“2 + X”家庭医生团队现状与预测研究

目的 预测“十四五”期间我国城乡人口和基层医疗卫生机构“2 + X”家庭医生团队数量,探究我国城乡家庭医生服务覆盖情况,为家庭医生健康发展提供科学依据。方法 依据2013—2019年相关数据,采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型预测2020—2025年我国城乡人口数和“2 + X”家庭医生团队数量和相关卫技人员数。观察每 2000 服务人口标准下,2018—2025年我国城乡“2 + X”家庭医生团队服务人数和服务覆盖率。结果 2020—2025年我国城镇人口数逐年增长,到2025年增至98 831万人;城市基层医疗卫生机构全科医生数、注册护士数、家庭医生团队数量逐年增长,到2025年分别增至171 712人、848 324人、171 712个;全科医生与护士比逐年上升,到2025年升至1∶4.94;2018—2025年我国城市“2 + X”家庭医生团队服务人口覆盖率逐年上升,到2025年升至35%。2020—2025年我国乡村人口数逐年下降,到2025年降至48 053万人;乡镇基层医疗卫生机构全科医生数、注册护士数、家庭医生团队数量逐年增长,到2025年分别增至447 672人、854 976人、447 672个;全科医生与护士比逐年下降,到2025年降至1:1.91;2018—2025年我国乡村“2 + X”家庭医生团队服务人口覆盖率逐年上升,理论上2022年实现全面覆盖。结论 2018—2025年我国城乡“2 + X”家庭医生团队数量逐年增加,但城市家庭医生缺口较大,应加强全科医学人才培养,增强家庭医生职业吸引力,缩小城乡全科医生薪资差距,优化家庭医生服务覆盖均衡性。     

Comparison of the PROMIS Preference Score (PROPr) and EQ-5D-5L Index Value in General Population Samples in the United Kingdom,France, and Germany

ObjectivesThe Patient-Reported Outcome Measurement Information System (PROMIS) Preference score (PROPr) can be used to assess health state utility (HSU) and estimate quality-adjusted life-years in cost-effectiveness analyses. It is based on item response theory and promises to overcome limitations of existing HSU scores such as ceiling effects. The PROPr contains 7 PROMIS domains: cognitive abilities, depression, fatigue, pain, physical function, sleep disturbance, and ability to participate in social roles and activities. We aimed to compare the PROPr with the 5-level EQ-5D (EQ-5D-5L) in terms of psychometric properties using data from 3 countries.MethodsWe collected PROMIS-29 profile and EQ-5D-5L data from 3 general population samples (United Kingdom = 1509, France = 1501, Germany = 1502). Given that cognition is not assessed by the PROMIS-29, it was predicted by the recommended linear regression model. We compared the convergent validity, known-groups construct validity, and ceiling and floor effects of the PROPr and EQ-5D-5L.ResultsThe mean PROPr (0.48, 0.53, 0.48; P<.01) and EQ-5D-5L scores (0.82, 0.85, 0.83; P<.01) showed significant differences of similar magnitudes (d = 0.34; d = 0.32; d = 0.35; P<.01) across all samples. The differences were invariant to sex, income, occupation, education, and most conditions but not for age. The Pearson correlation coefficients between both scores were r = 0.74, r = 0.69, and r = 0.72. PROPr’s ceiling and floor effects both were minor to moderate. The EQ-5D-5L’s ceiling (floor) effects were major (negligible).ConclusionsBoth the EQ-5D-5L and the PROPr assessed by the PROMIS-29 show high validity. The PROPr yields considerably lower HSU values than the EQ-5D-5L. Consequences for quality-adjusted life-year measurements should be investigated in future research.     

Preoperative management of obese patients undergoing bariatric surgery: Role of endoscopy and Helicobacter eradication

BackgroundObesity is a pandemic disease associated to severe health problems. Management is usually multimodal, but many patients eventually need surgery to reduce weight. Many guidelines recommend endoscopy prior to surgery. This study reviews a series of patients undergoing sleeve gastrectomy to see whether endoscopy performance and histopathological findings influence surgery outcome.Material and methodsRetrospective series of patients undergoing sleeve gastrectomy as bariatric procedure at a single institution. We have reviewed the demographic data, the associated pathologies, endoscopic findings prior to surgery, histopathological findings in the surgical resection specimen and postoperative complication rate.Results259 patients fulfilled criteria for the study. Over 70% were women and the mean age was 46.9 (SD 9.8). Preoperative endoscopy was performed in 28.9% of the patients and biopsy only in 19.3%. Helicobacter pylori was detected in 28% of the patients undergoing endoscopy (either in the biopsy or the urease test) and eradicated before surgery in all the patients. Helicobacter pylori was present in 9.7% of the surgical resection specimens and its presence was significantly associated with the development of postoperative complications, mostly staple line leaks (p = 0.01).ConclusionOur study confirms that Helicobacter infection is significantly associated with postoperative complications after sleeve gastrectomy. It is therefore important to detect its presence and eradicate it before surgery.     

The Role of Maternal Weight in the Hierarchy of Macrosomia Predictors; Overall Effect of Analysis of Three Prediction Indicators

So far it has not been established which maternal features play the most important role in newborn macrosomia. The aim of this study is to provide assessment of a hierarchy of twenty six (26) maternal characteristics in macrosomia prediction. A Polish prospective cohort of women with singleton pregnancy (N = 912) which was recruited in the years 2015–2016 has been studied. Two analyses were performed: for probability of macrosomia > 4000 g (n = 97) (vs. 755 newborns 2500–4000 g); and for birthweight > 90th percentile (n = 99) (vs. 741 newborns 10–90th percentile). A multiple logistic regression was used (with 95% confidence intervals (CI)). A hierarchy of significance of potential predictors was established after summing up of three prediction indicators (NRI, IDI and AUC) calculated for the basic prediction model (maternal age + parity) extended with one (test) predictor. ‘Net reclassification improvement’ (NRI) focuses on the reclassification table describing the number of women in whom an upward or downward shift in the disease probability value occurred after a new factor had been added, including the results for healthy and ill women. ‘Integrated discrimination improvement’ (IDI) shows the difference between the value of mean change in predicted probability between the group of ill and healthy women when a new factor is added to the model. The area under curve (AUC) is a commonly used indicator. Results. The macrosomia risk was the highest for prior macrosomia (AOR = 7.53, 95%CI: 3.15–18.00, p < 0.001). A few maternal characteristics were associated with more than three times higher macrosomia odds ratios, e.g., maternal obesity and gestational age ≥ 38 weeks. A different hierarchy was shown by the prediction study. Compared to the basic prediction model (AUC = 0.564 (0.501–0.627), p = 0.04), AUC increased most when pre-pregnancy weight (kg) was added to the base model (AUC = 0.706 (0.649–0.764), p < 0.001). The values of IDI and NRI were also the highest for the model with maternal weight (IDI = 0.061 (0.039–0.083), p < 0.001), and (NRI = 0.538 (0.33–0.746), p < 0.001). Adding another factor to the base model was connected with significantly weaker prediction, e.g., for gestational age ≥ 38 weeks (AUC = 0.602 (0.543–0.662), p = 0.001), (IDI = 0.009 (0.004; 0.013), p < 0.001), and (NRI = 0.155 (0.073; 0.237), p < 0.001). After summing up the effects of NRI, IDI and AUC, the probability of macrosomia was most strongly improved (in order) by: pre-pregnancy weight, body mass index (BMI), excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) and BMI ≥ 25 kg/m². Maternal height, prior macrosomia, fetal sex-son, and gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) occupied an intermediate place in the hierarchy. The main conclusions: newer prediction indicators showed that (among 26 features) excessive pre-pregnancy weight/BMI and excessive GWG played a much more important role in macrosomia prediction than other maternal characteristics. These indicators more strongly highlighted the differences between predictors than the results of commonly used odds ratios.     

A Multidisciplinary,Community-Based Program to Reduce Unplanned Hospital Admissions

ObjectivesTo evaluate the effect of Hospital Admission Risk Program (HARP) on unplanned hospitalization, bed days, and mortality of enrolled individuals and to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of HARP.DesignA retrospective longitudinal analysis of hospital administrative data.InterventionIndividuals at risk of hospitalization were provided with multidisciplinary, community-based care support managed by care coordinators including integrated care planning, education, monitoring, service linkages, and general practitioner liaison over 6-9 months.Setting and ParticipantsIndividuals who were enrolled into 1 of 8 HARP chronic disease management programs between July 1, 2017, and June 30, 2018, at the Royal Melbourne Hospital, Australia.MethodsHospital admissions between 18 months before and 18 months after HARP enrollment were analyzed. Total hospital costs were compared between 18 months before and 12 months after HARP enrollment.ResultsA total of 1553 individuals with a median age of 71 years (interquartile range 60-81), 63.4% males, were admitted to HARP. Both unplanned hospitalizations and bed days were reduced during the HARP intervention compared to within 3 months before enrollment in each of the HARP management programs. After the HARP intervention, cardiac coach, cardiac heart failure, chronic respiratory, diabetes comanagement, and medication management programs had higher hospitalizations and bed days than individuals’ baseline of at least 3 months before HARP enrollment. Individuals in cardiac heart failure and chronic respiratory management programs had a higher mortality rate than other HARP chronic disease management programs. Individuals in cardiac coach, diabetes comanagement, and medication management programs had lower hospital costs during the HARP intervention compared to within 3 months before HARP enrollment.Conclusions and ImplicationsHARP reduced unplanned hospitalization and bed days but did not return individuals’ hospital use to baseline before the intervention. The variations in mortality between HARP chronic disease management programs implies that condition-specific goals between programs is preferable.     

基于季节性ARIMA模型的新疆肺结核发病预测分析

目的 探讨季节性时间序列模型(autoregressive integrated moving average,ARIMA)在新疆肺结核发病预测中的应用,并验证模型的可行性和适用性。 方法 采用季节性ARIMA(p, d, q )(P, D, Q)_s拟合2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核月发病人数,建立多个季节时间序列模型并进行比较,选出最优模型对2019年9—12月肺结核发病人数进行预测。 结果 2005年1月—2019年8月新疆地区肺结核累积发病人数为627 869例,年平均发病人数为3 567例。 新疆地区肺结核月发病数具有季节性,1—5月平均发病数高于平均水平,6—12月平均发病数低于平均水平,发病高峰为1月和3月,发病低谷为9月。通过赤池信息量(Akaike Information Criterion,AIC)和贝叶斯信息量(Bayesian Information Criterion,BIC)最小原则得出,ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂是最优模型,其残差序列为白噪声,参数的回归系数均具有统计学意义,拟合的平均绝对百分比误差MAPE为8.723%。预测的MAPE为18.674%,真实值均处于预测值的95%置信区间内。 结论 ARIMA(1, 1, 1 )(0, 1, 2)₁₂模型能够较好地拟合新疆肺结核发病数据,并进行短期预测,对新疆卫生防控措施的制定具有一定指导意义。     

我国常见细菌耐药趋势预测研究:基于灰色GM (1,1)模型

 目的 通过对耐甲氧西林金黄色葡萄球菌（MRSA）、耐碳青霉烯类铜绿假单胞菌（CRPA）、耐碳青霉烯类鲍曼不动杆菌（CRAB）、耐第三代头孢菌素的大肠埃希菌（3GCR-E.coli）、耐第三代头孢菌素的肺炎克雷伯菌（3GCR-KP）等细菌耐药数据构建灰色预测模型,分析细菌耐药特征的变化趋势,探讨灰色预测模型在细菌耐药领域的应用价值。方法 采用2014-2018年全国细菌耐药监测报告中MRSA、CRPA和CRAB、3GCR-E.coli、3GCR-KP等耐药率数据构建灰色预测GM （1,1）模型。用后验差比C值和小误差概率P值评估模型精度,用相对误差和级比偏差评估模型拟合效果,并用2019-2020年数据对模型预测效果进行验证。最终根据模型对2021-2023年的耐药率进行预测。结果 本研究构建的GM （1,1）模型对MRSA、CRPA、CRAB、3GCR-E.coli和3GCR-KP等细菌耐药率预测效果较好,根据该模型预测到2023年其耐药率分别可降低至23.9%、15.2%、50.2%、43.8%、26.1%。结论 全国针对细菌耐药情况采取的控制措施取得明显成效,GM （1,1）模型对细菌耐药率预测效果较好,可在细菌耐药管理领域推广应用。     

预测加氢裂化过程的产率

以缓和加氢裂化数据为基础,对于两种典型的加氢裂化动力学模型－－Stangeland模型和改进MHC模型,使用Shor最优化法进行了参数的拟合,比较了这两种动力学模型的结果、算法、复杂度以及预测能力。结果表明,改进MHC模型是一种更为合理的动力学模型,该模型也可用于实际加氢过程。     

La densidad de los ganglios linfáticos en la linfadenectomía retroperitoneal como marcador novel para predecir la recurrencia en pacientes con cáncer testicular de células germinales: estudio de casos y controles y experiencia clínica a largo plazo de un hospital de referencia terciario

Introduction and objectivesIn this retrospective study, we aimed to evaluate lymph node (LN) density in retroperitoneal lymph node dissection (RPLND) to analyze whether residual mass after chemotherapy might behave as predicting factor for recurrence in patients with germ cell testicular cancer (GCTC).Materials and methodsThe data of 185 patients that were operated between 12/2004 and 02/2017 because of GCTC were reviewed retrospectively. LN density was calculated. The patients were compared statistically in terms of demographic features, tumor characteristics, serum tumor marker levels, treatment strategies, and pathological results according to GCTC subtypes. Correlation analysis was performed to determine the parameters related to recurrent disease.ResultsThe median follow-up was 79 (31-179) months and the median age of the patients was 23 (16-71). The median tumor size was 4 (1-18) cm. Five (2.7%) patients had metastatic disease at initial diagnosis. Seminoma, non-seminomatous-GCT and mix type-GCTC was detected in 62 (33.5%), 60 (32.4%) and 63 (34.1%) patients, respectively. Following inguinal orchiectomy, 48 (25.9%) patients underwent follow-up, 126 (68.1%) patients underwent chemotherapy and 11 (5.9%) patients underwent radiotherapy. A total of 21 (11.4%) patients underwent post-chemotherapy RPLND. Early and late recurrence was seen in 3 (1.6%) and 2 (1.1%) of the patients, respectively. A mild to moderate, negative, but significant correlation was found between the recurrence and the number of LNs containing metastatic deposits and LN density (r= –0.490, P=.024 and r= –0.450, P=.041, respectively).ConclusionsThere was a negative correlation between the number of LNs containing metastatic deposits and LN density and recurrent disease.