Effects of state reinsurance programs on health insurance exchange premiums and insurer participation

Objective

The aim of the study was to estimate the effect of the state-based reinsurance programs through the section 1332 State Innovation Waivers on health insurance marketplace premiums and insurer participation.

Data Source

2015 to 2022 Robert Wood Johnson Foundation Health Insurance Exchange Compare Datasets.

Study Design

An event study difference-in-differences (DD) model separately for each year of implementation and a synthetic control method (SCM) are used to estimate year-by-year effects following program implementation.

Data Collection/Extraction Methods

Not applicable.

Principal Findings

Reinsurance programs were associated with a decline in premiums in the first year of implementation by 10%–13%, 5%–19%, and 11%–17% for bronze, silver, and gold plans (p < 0.05). There is a trend of sustained declines especially for states that implemented their programs in 2019 and 2020. The SCM analyses suggest some effect heterogeneity across states but also premium declines across most states. There is no evidence that reinsurance programs affected insurer participation.

Conclusion

State-based reinsurance programs have the potential to improve the affordability of health insurance coverage. However, reinsurance programs do not appear to have had an effect on insurer participation, highlighting the need for policy makers to consider complementary strategies to encourage insurer participation.     

Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

人工智能在中医药领域的应用进展及现状思考

人工智能（Artificial Intelligence，AI）的蓬勃兴起为现代社会带来了前所未有的机遇，中医药是中华民族传承千年的文化瑰宝。随着人工智能技术不断在中医药领域的科技创新中崭露头角，二者的融合不断加深，人工智能在中医药领域的发展前景、争议挑战也引发了诸多思考。本文将从人工智能在中医药领域的应用入手，对人工智能辅助中医诊断、智能决策与数据挖掘、健康管理及中草药现代化研究等方面，就近年来国内外研究进展进行总结与分析，以期为AI视域下实现中医药现代化、智能化赋能。     

基于文本挖掘和生物医学数据库的新型冠状病毒肺炎药物发现

目的 基于文本挖掘技术和生物医学数据库对新型冠状病毒肺炎（COVID-19）相关文献进行数据挖掘分析，探究COVID-19及其主要症状发热、咳嗽、呼吸障碍相关基因靶点，筛选潜在有效的化学药和中药。方法 使用GenCLiP 3网站获取COVID-19和其主要症状咳嗽、发热、呼吸障碍共4个关键词的共有靶点，在METASCAPE数据库中对其进行基因本体（GO）和通路富集分析，再利用String数据库和Cytoscape软件构建共有靶点的蛋白质相互作用网络，筛选获得核心基因，运用DGIdb数据库、SymMap数据库针对核心基因进行中西医治疗药物预测。结果 获得COVID-19及其主要症状共有基因靶点28个，其中有IL2、IL1B、CCL2等核心基因16个，使用DGIdb数据库筛选获得与16个关键靶点相互作用的化学药包括沙利度胺、来氟米特、环孢素等28种，中药包括虎杖、黄芪、芦荟等70味。结论 COVID-19及其主要症状的病理机制可能和CD4、KNG1、VEGFA等28个共有基因相关，可能通过介导TNF、IL-17等信号通路参与COVID-19病理过程。潜在有效药物可能通过作用相关靶点通路起到治疗COVID-19的作用。     

基于真实世界数据探讨中医药治疗糖尿病肾病用药规律的研究＊

目的 基于临床信息系统分析总结真实世界的数据，采用数据挖掘的方法探讨中医药治疗糖尿病肾病的用药规律。方法 收集2018年1月-2020年12月上海中医药大学附属曙光医院宝山分院健康信息系统确诊的糖尿病肾病的门诊或住院患者的诊疗信息，建立Excel数据库，采用Excel 2010软件统计高频药物的四气、五味、归经及功效；使用SPSS Modeler 18.0软件中的Apriori算法分析关联规则，采用web节点建构药对关联网状图；运用SPSS 25统计软件进行因子分析。结果 本研究最终纳入477例接受中药饮片治疗的DKD患者，在1203条方剂信息中，涉及中药462种；使用频数排名前5位的中药分别是黄芪、黄精、石斛、山茱萸、麦冬；使用频数前5类的中药类别分别是补气药、补阴药、清热燥湿药、活血调经药、息风止痉药；在30味高频药物中，苦、甘、辛药味最为常见；药性寒、温数量接近；归脾经、肝经、肺经、肾经居多；关联规则提示，药物组合中置信度最高的组合为地龙-当归-僵蚕，因子分析共得到5个有效因子，累积贡献率为47.33%。结论 中医药治疗DKD在补益气血阴阳的同时，兼顾对瘀血、湿邪和痰饮的治疗，结合证型，可考虑使用黄芪、黄精、石斛、山茱萸、麦冬、金蝉花等药物的使用，清热燥湿药物如黄连、黄芩、黄柏可适当加入，为使邪有去处，大黄、车前子或可增添疗效。     

数据挖掘法探讨周珉教授治疗原发性肝癌用药规律及经验总结

[目的]数据挖掘法分析周珉教授治疗原发性肝癌的中医用药规律,探讨相关病机并进行经验总结。[方法]收集2016年2月—2018年5月周珉教授门诊期间治疗原发性肝癌的方剂,运用"中医传承辅助系统(V2.50)"进行数据挖掘,并结合周珉教授临床经验,进行原发性肝癌病机探讨及用药规律分析。[结果]共收集治疗原发性肝癌方剂176首,涉及中药235种,列出方剂中的高频药物及组合规律。[结论]总结原发性肝癌以"湿热痰毒、气阴两伤"为基础病机,"清热化湿、健脾养阴"治则贯穿原发性肝癌治疗始末,同时,根据疾病不同发展阶段及治疗措施,权衡"扶正"与"祛邪"的主次分配,斟酌应用"攻毒散结""行气化瘀"等治法,以达到改善患者生活质量、延缓疾病进展的目的。     

Reference set for performance testing of pediatric vaccine safety signal detection methods and systems

BackgroundSafety signal detection in spontaneous reporting system databases and electronic healthcare records is key to detection of previously unknown adverse events following immunization. Various statistical methods for signal detection in these different datasources have been developed, however none are geared to the pediatric population and none specifically to vaccines. A reference set comprising pediatric vaccine-adverse event pairs is required for reliable performance testing of statistical methods within and across data sources.MethodsThe study was conducted within the context of the Global Research in Paediatrics (GRiP) project, as part of the seventh framework programme (FP7) of the European Commission. Criteria for the selection of vaccines considered in the reference set were routine and global use in the pediatric population. Adverse events were primarily selected based on importance. Outcome based systematic literature searches were performed for all identified vaccine-adverse event pairs and complemented by expert committee reports, evidence based decision support systems (e.g. Micromedex), and summaries of product characteristics. Classification into positive (PC) and negative control (NC) pairs was performed by two independent reviewers according to a pre-defined algorithm and discussed for consensus in case of disagreement.ResultsWe selected 13 vaccines and 14 adverse events to be included in the reference set. From a total of 182 vaccine-adverse event pairs, we classified 18 as PC, 113 as NC and 51 as unclassifiable. Most classifications (91) were based on literature review, 45 were based on expert committee reports, and for 46 vaccine-adverse event pairs, an underlying pathomechanism was not plausible classifying the association as NC.ConclusionA reference set of vaccine-adverse event pairs was developed. We propose its use for comparing signal detection methods and systems in the pediatric population.     

Reference values of postural balance in preschoolers: Age and gender differences for 4–5 years old Tunisian children

BackgroundPreschool age is a critical stage of postural balance development. Posturography normative data during this age are crucial for surveillance of postural balance and for the timely diagnosis of any dysfunction. The aim of this study was to provide normative data, specific to Tunisian preschoolers, according to age and gender, and to examine gender- and age-related differences in postural balance.Research questionAre there postural balance gender- and age-related differences in Tunisian preschoolers?MethodsThe study included 410 (205 boys and 205 girls) preschool children aged between 4- and 5-year-old selected within a large geographic area of Tunisia. Postural balance was assessed using a stabilometric platform under 4 sensory conditions. The mean center of pressure velocity (CoP-V) parameter was selected for analysis. Differences between gender and age groups were analysed using the Mann–Whitney U. Normative data were expressed in percentiles.ResultsSignificant gender effect was found in conditions where sensory inputs are most challenged with a significantly smaller mean CoP-V in girls compared to boys (p < 0.05). Moreover, 5-year-old children had significantly better postural balance than 4-year-old ones in almost all conditions (p < 0.05).SignificanceThe normative data established for Tunisian preschoolers provide useful comparative data for pediatricians, teachers and coaches for the early evaluation and monitoring of postural balance during this age. Gender and age-related differences should be considered in this population.