A risk model for the prediction of recurrent falls in community-dwelling elderly: a prospective cohort study

The object of this article was to determine the predictive value of risk factors for recurrent falls and the construction of a fall risk model as a contribution to a mobility assessment for the identification of community-dwelling elderly at risk for recurrent falling in general practice. The design was a prospective cohort study (n = 311). There were four primary health care centers. A sample stratified on previous falls, age, and gender of community-dwelling elderly persons aged 70 years or over (n = 311) was taken from the respondents to a mail questionnaire (n = 1660). They were visited at home to assess physical and mental health, balance and gait, mobility and strength. A 36-week follow-up with telephone calls every 6 weeks was conducted. Falls and fall injuries were measured. During follow-up 197 falls were reported by 33% of the participants: one fall by 17% and two or more falls by 16%. Injury due to a fall was reported by 45% of the fallers: 2% hip fractures, 4% other fractures, and 39% minor injuries. A fall risk model for the prediction of recurrent falls with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.79, based on logistic regression analysis, showed that the main determinants for recurrent falls were: an abnormal postural sway (OR 3.9; 95% Cl 1.3-12.1), two or more falls in the previous year (OR 3.1; 95% Cl 1.5-6.7), low scores for hand grip strength (OR 3.1; 95% Cl 1.5-6.6), and a depressive state of mind (OR 2.2; 95% CI 1.1-4.5). To facilitate the use of the model for clinical practice, the model was converted to a "desk model" with three risk categories: low risk (0-1 predictor), moderate risk (two predictors), and high risk (> or =3 predictors). A fall risk model converted to a "desk model," consisting of the predictors postural sway, fall history, hand dynamometry, and depression, provides added value in the identification of community-dwelling elderly at risk for recurrent falling and facilitates the prediction of recurrent falls.     

重庆市老年人多次跌倒发生率及相关因素分析

目的 了解重庆市65岁及以上老年人过去1年多次跌倒发生率及相关因素,为开展干预工作提供建议.方法 在4个区县采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样抽取65岁及以上老年人进行问卷调查.多次跌倒发生率的比较采用x2检验,多次跌倒发生的相关因素采用多因素logistic回归分析.结果 共计调查1607人,平均年龄(72.36±6.27)...     

Fall-related factors in a cohort of elderly community residents

OBJECTIVE: To identify factors associated to fall and recurrent fall episodes among elderly living in a community, and to determine the relative risk of each factor as a fall predictor. METHODS: A two-year follow-up study with two segments of multi-dimensional household surveys (1991-1992 and 1994-1995) was carried out in a cohort of 1,667 elderly, aged 65 or older, living in a community in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The instrument used for data collection was the BOMFAQ, the Brazilian version of the Multidimensional Functional Assessment Questionnaire (OARS). A stepwise logistic regression analysis was conducted with p<0.05 and 95% CI. RESULTS: About 31% of the elderly referred a fall episode and around 11% referred two or more fall episodes in the previous year of the first survey. After follow-up, 53.4% didn't refer any fall episodes, 32.7% referred a fall episode either in the first survey or in the second one and almost 14% referred fall episodes in both surveys. The predictive model of recurrent falls was composed by the following variables: absence of a spouse (OR=1.59 95% CI 1.00-2.52), not having a reading habit (OR= 1.56 95% CI 1.03-2.37), history of fractures (OR=4.6 95% CI 2.23-9.69 difficulty to perform one to three activities of daily life (OR=2.37 95% CI 1.49-3.78), difficulty to perform four or more activities of daily life (OR=3.31 95%CI 1.58-6.93) and among those whose sight is most impaired (OR=1.53 95%CI 1.00-2.34). CONCLUSIONS: Population ageing and increase in life expectancy demand preventive and rehabilitation actions in order to reduce risk factors for falls, such as impaired functional capacity, impaired eye sight and lack of cognitive stimulation.     

Fall-risk screening test: a prospective study on predictors for falls in community-dwelling elderly

This large prospective cohort study was undertaken to construct a fall-risk model for elderly. The emphasis of the study rests on easily measurable predictors for any falls and recurrent falls. The occurrence of falls among 1285 community-dwelling elderly aged 65 years and over was followed during 1 year by means of a "fall calendar." Physical, cognitive, emotional and social functioning preceding the registration of falls were studied as potential predictors of fall-risk. Previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and use of benzodiazepines were the strongest predictors identified in the risk profile model for any falls (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.65), whereas previous falls, visual impairment, urinary incontinence and functional limitations proved to be the strongest predictors in the model for recurrent falls (AUC = 0.71). The probability of recurrent falls for subsequent scores of the screening test ranged from 4.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 4.0-5.4%) to 46.8% (95% CI: 43.0-50.6%). Our study provides a fall-risk screening test based on four easily measurable predictors that can be used for fall-risk stratification in community-dwelling elderly.     

Validation of the LASA fall risk profile for recurrent falling in older recent fallers

ObjectivesThe fall risk profile developed in the Longitudinal Aging Study Amsterdam (LASA) identifies community-dwelling elderly at high risk for recurrent falling. This study assessed the predictive validity of this profile in older persons seeking care after a fall.Study Design and SettingThe LASA fall risk profile was completed for 408 persons of 65 years and older who consulted the emergency department or general practitioner after a fall. Falls were prospectively reported with a calendar during 1 year. Recurrent falling was defined as ≥2 falls within a period of 6 months.ResultsDuring 1 year of followup, 76 (18.6%) participants became recurrent fallers. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.65 (95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 0.58–0.72). At a cutoff value of 8, the sensitivity was 56.6% (CI: 51.8–61.4), the specificity was 71.4% (CI: 67.0–75.8), the positive predictive value was 34.1% (CI: 29.5–38.7), and the negative predictive value was 85.6% (CI: 82.2–89.0).ConclusionThe discriminative ability of the LASA fall risk profile was moderate. The predictive validity of the LASA fall risk profile to identify recurrent fallers is limited among older persons who consulted the emergency department or general practitioner after a fall.     

湖北省抽样点老年人跌倒风险状况及其影响因素研究

目的研究湖北省抽样点老年人群跌倒风险情况及其相关影响因素,为采取针对性的预防措施提供理论依据。方法于2018年1-12月采取多阶段分层整群随机抽样的方法,在湖北省抽取1个区和1个县作为研究点。将符合纳入标准的2970名年龄≥60岁老年人作为研究对象,以标准化问卷进行调查,并进行身体测量和跌倒风险评估。用SPSS22.0统计软件进行χ²检验,采用多因素logistic回归模型分析老年人跌倒风险的影响因素。结果2970名老年人中存在跌倒风险的人数为1703人(57.34%),1年内摔倒1、2和3次及以上的比例分别为5.42%,0.88%和0.40%。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,女性(OR=1.681,95%CI:1.431~1.975),高龄(70~74岁OR=1.925,95%CI:1.338~2.669,75~79岁OR=2.698,95%CI:1.883~3.886,≥80岁OR=5.014,95%CI:3.327~7.556),无配偶(OR=1.305,95%CI:1.054~1.615),跌倒相关药物服药史(OR=1.440,95%CI:1.215~1.707),日常生活活动能力受损(OR=3.238,95%CI:2.104~4.984)及患有眼疾(OR=2.844,95%CI:1.711~4.729)的湖北省抽样点老年人群跌倒风险较高,居住在农村(OR=0.515,95%CI:0.429~0.620)、每天进行体育锻炼(OR=0.715,95%CI:0.555~0.921)的湖北省抽样点老年人群跌倒风险较低。结论湖北省抽样点老年人群跌倒风险较高,且呈现影响因素多样化,个体跌倒影响因素叠加等现象,应重点关注女性、高龄独居和日常生活活动能力受损的老年人,通过社会、家庭和个体3个维度的综合性干预措施来降低老年跌倒风险。     

中国老年人不同严重程度跌倒风险与慢性病和睡眠的关联研究

  目的  探索老年人慢性疾病和睡眠状况与不同严重程度跌倒风险之间的关联,为老年人跌倒所致伤害的预防和干预提供线索。  方法  采用病例对照研究发生风险,以“中国健康与养老追踪调查项目”数据为基础,利用2011-2015年抽样调查数据,运用多因素Logistic回归分析模型分析慢性疾病和睡眠的暴露与中国老年人普通跌倒和跌倒就医发生风险的关联。  结果  11 912例老年人两年内普通跌倒报告率和跌倒就医报告率分别为7.82%和17.09%;多因素Logistic回归分析模型结果显示,听力退化、身体疼痛、有抑郁症状、肾脏病、关节炎和日常生活自理能力(activities of daily living, ADL)受损与老年人普通跌倒和跌倒就医发生风险存在关联(均有P < 0.05);患高血糖与普通跌倒发生风险存在关联(OR=1.43, 95% CI: 1.13~1.81, P=0.002),患脑卒中与跌倒就医发生风险存在关联(OR=1.34, 95% CI: 1.03~1.75, P=0.031);睡眠时长5~ h和≥7 h与老年人两类跌倒发生风险存在负关联(均有P < 0.05)。  结论  老年人退行性疾病及慢性疾病可能是跌倒发生的共同危险因素,充足的睡眠可能是两类跌倒的共同保护因素,应当针对高危老年人群体和暴露因素开展跌倒的预防和干预。     

Incidence, risk factors and consequences of falls among elderly subjects living in the community: A criteria-based analysis

In order to obtain an overview of the incidences, risk factorsand health consequences of falls among elderly persons livingin the community from the available literature, a Medline computersearch of publications over the period 1981–1994 was carriedout. Fourteen studies met the following inclusion criteria:i) the study is an original investigation of falls among theelderly, ii) the study deals with the incidence, risk factorsand/or consequences of falls among the elderly and iii) thestudy refers to a population at risk consisting of persons aged60 years or over belonging to a population relevant to generalpractice. The selected studies were subjected to a methodologicalassessment on the basis of 10 methodological criteria. All thestudies were independently assessed by 1 author and 1 assistantto obtain a methodological consensus. The relevant outcomesof these studies are reported. Pooling of data was not performedbecause of relevant differences between the studies. Two studiesmet all methodological criteria and 2 other studies were secondbest. These 4 studies were given preference. Approximately 30%of subjects older than 65 years fall at least once a year andapproximately 15% fall recurrently. The main risk factors forfalls among the elderly belong to the intrinsic (patient-related)risk factors: cognitive impairment, balance and gait disorders,use of sedatives and hypnotics, a history of stroke, advancedage, arthritis of the knee and a high level of dependence. Extrinsic(environment-related) risk factors did not play a significantrole in any of the studies. Not all studies dealt with the healthconsequences of falls among the elderly. Major injuries werereported in 0.5–9% and fractures in 3–14%.     

河南省老年人能力状况对跌倒的影响

目的 了解河南省老年人跌倒发生情况,并探讨老年人能力状况与跌倒之间的关系。方法 采用分阶段抽样的方法,对河南省60岁及以上的老年人进行问卷调查。采用二元logistic回归模型分析日常生活能力、精神状态能力、感知觉与沟通能力、社会参与能力对老年人跌倒的影响。结果 共调查5 570例老年人,其中496例老年人发生了跌倒,发生率为8.9%。Logistic回归分析表明,全人群中日常生活能力受损（OR = 3.060,95%CI = 2.418～3.872）、感知觉与沟通能力受损（OR = 1.449,95%CI = 1.128～1.861）、社会参与能力受损（OR = 1.438,95%CI = 1.100～1.880）是河南省老年人跌倒的危险因素。根据性别进行分层后无论对于男性（OR = 3.542,95%CI = 2.445～5.130）还是女性（OR = 2.826,95%CI = 2.075～3.848）,跌倒都受日常生活能力受损的影响。除此之外,感知觉与沟通能力受损（OR = 1.543,95%CI = 1.118～2.130）和社会参与能力受损（OR = 1.480,95%CI = 1.045～2.096）也是女性老年人跌倒的危险因素。结论 能力状况受损是老年人跌倒的危险因素,其中男性跌倒主要受日常生活能力的影响,女性跌倒受日常生活能力、感知觉与沟通能力、社会参与能力的影响。     

北京市社区老年人跌倒发生现况及危险因素分析

目的 了解北京市社区老年人跌倒的发生特点与规律,并对造成跌倒发生的危险因素进行分析,为进一步开展老年人跌倒的预防工作提供依据.方法 本次调查覆盖北京市某街道所辖的12个社区,在每个社区内符合条件的60岁及以上老年人中,采用系统抽样方法分别抽取100名老年人进行人户调查.结果 在被调查的老年人中,1年内共有169位老年人发生过258次跌倒,跌倒发生率为15.6％,其中男性跌倒发生率为14.7％ (96人次),女性跌倒发生率为16.4％(162人次);老年人跌倒大多发生在室内.不同性别的老年人跌倒发生地点的构成差异有统计学意义(x2=8.05,P=0.045);社区老年人跌倒损伤部位以四肢最多见,其次为躯干和头面部,导致内脏损伤较少见,只有5人,不同性别的老年人跌伤部位的构成差异有统计学意义(x2=7.99,P=0.046);年龄高(OR=2.395,95％ CI:1.902～3.001)、担心跌伤(OR=1.433,95％ CI:1.120～1.833)、家庭不和睦(OR=1.238,95％ CI:1.047～2.049)为社区老年人跌倒的危险因素.结论 北京市社区老年人跌倒发生率较高,严重威胁着老年人的身心健康.     

苏州市某社区居家老年人跌倒危险因素分析

目的 探讨苏州市某社区居家老年人跌倒现状及危险因素,为社区跌倒预防工作提供参考.方法 采用方便抽样的方法,于2018年4—7月选取苏州市某社区60岁及以上居家养老的375名老年人为研究对象,采用Logistic回归模型分析跌倒的危险因素.结果 65名居家老年人在一年内发生过跌倒,发生率为17.33％,午饭后到晚饭间是老...     

慢性病对中老年人跌倒伤害影响的队列研究

目的:分析慢性病对我国中老年人跌倒伤害风险的影响。方法:数据来源于中国健康与养老追踪调查（CHARLS）,以2011年基线调查募集的13 670名≥45岁中老年人作为研究对象并追踪至2018年,其中45~59岁中年人7 443例（54.45%）,≥60岁老年人6 227例（45.55%）。采用Cox比例风险模型分析不同...     

Falls in the elderly were predicted opportunistically using a decision tree and systematically using a database-driven screening tool

ObjectiveTo identify risk factors for falls and generate two screening tools: an opportunistic tool for use in consultation to flag at risk patients and a systematic database screening tool for comprehensive falls assessment of the practice population.Study Design and SettingThis multicenter cohort study was part of the quality improvement in chronic kidney disease trial. Routine data for participants aged 65 years and above were collected from 127 general practice (GP) databases across the UK, including sociodemographic, physical, diagnostic, pharmaceutical, lifestyle factors, and records of falls or fractures over 5 years. Multilevel logistic regression analyses were performed to identify predictors. The strongest predictors were used to generate a decision tree and risk score.ResultsOf the 135,433 individuals included, 10,766 (8%) experienced a fall or fracture during follow-up. Age, female sex, previous fall, nocturia, anti-depressant use, and urinary incontinence were the strongest predictors from our risk profile (area under the receiver operating characteristics curve = 0.72). Medication for hypertension did not increase the falls risk. Females aged over 75 years and subjects with a previous fall were the highest risk groups from the decision tree. The risk profile was converted into a risk score (range −7 to 56). Using a cut-off of ≥9, sensitivity was 68%, and specificity was 60%.ConclusionOur study developed opportunistic and systematic tools to predict falls without additional mobility assessments.     

上海市青浦区60岁及以上老年人跌倒风险评估及相关危险因素分析*

摘要 目的 探讨上海市青浦区60岁及以上老年人跌倒风险以及相关危险因素的分布,为探索预防老年人跌倒防控措施的制定提供科学依据。方法 采用多阶段分层随机抽样的方法,抽取920名老年人作为研究对象,对其2016年8月—2017年7月发生的跌倒情况进行回顾性问卷调查。结果 920名调查对象中,跌倒发生率为8.50%,其中男性跌倒发生率为5.10%, 女性跌倒发生率为11.50%;不同性别跌倒发生率差异有统计学意义(X2=11.9,P＜0.00);年龄分层分析结果显示,70岁及以上年龄组跌倒发生率明显高于70岁以下年龄组（X2?=10.66, P=0.001）;多因素logistic回归分析显示：走路或者站立困难、感觉触觉下降、有足部疾病、患有3种或以上的慢性病、有骨骼、关节等骨骼肌肉系统损害或疾病是社区老年人跌倒发生的危险因素,相对于女性,男性不易发生跌倒。结论 青浦区老年人发生跌倒潜在风险依然较高,应针对患有多种慢性疾病、骨质疏松和触觉下降等的老年人制定综合干预措施。     

The Clinical Potential of Frailty Indicators on Identifying Recurrent Fallers in the Community: The Mr. Os and Ms. OS Cohort Study in Hong Kong

ObjectivesTo compare the clinical value of 3 frailty indicators in a screening pathway for identifying older men and women who are at risk of falls.DesignA prospective cohort study.Setting and participantsFour thousand Chinese adults (2000 men) aged ≥65 years were recruited from the community in Hong Kong.MethodsThe Cardiovascular Health Study Criteria, the FRAIL scale, and the Study for Osteoporosis and Fracture Criteria (SOF) were included for evaluation. Fall history was used as a comparative predictor. Recurrent falls during the second year after baseline was the primary outcome. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to evaluate the ability of the frailty indicators and fall history to predict recurrent falls. Independent predictors identified in logistic regression were put in the Classification and Regression Tree (CART) analysis to evaluate their performance in screening high-risk fallers.ResultsFall history predicts recurrent falls in both men and women (AUC: men = 0.681; women = 0.645) better than all frailty indicators (AUC ≤ 0.641). After adjusting for fall history, only FRAIL (AUC = 0.676) and SOF (AUC = 0.673) remained as significant predictors for women whereas no frailty indicator remained significant in men.FRAIL could classify older women into 2 groups with distinct chances of being a recurrent faller in people with no fall history (3.8% vs 7.5%), a single fall history (9.5% vs 37.5%), and history of recurrent falls (16.0% vs 30.8%). SOF has limited ability in identifying recurrent fallers in the group of older adults with a single fall history (no fall history: 3.9% vs 8.6%; single fall history: 10.2% vs 10.9%; history of recurrent falls: 16.5% vs 20.6%).Conclusions and implicationsSOF and FRAIL could provide some additional prediction value to fall history in older women but not men. FRAIL could be clinically useful in identifying older women at risk of recurrent falls, especially in those with a single fall history.     

老年人跌倒及其后果的调查分析

目的：了解中国老年人跌到问题的基本信息,包括人口学资料、跌倒的发生率和后果,方法：共调查415人,运用访谈、观察和查阅病历的方法收集资料。结果：老年人年跌倒发生率为14％,其中6．3％发生骨折,多数跌倒有软组织损伤、暂时性日常活动水平下降和害怕再次跌倒等心理反应。结论：老年人跌倒的发生率和跌倒致伤率高。即使为非致命性损伤,亦可能引发致命性或严重功能能障碍性并发症,跌倒往往导致老人生理,心理和生社功能状态的减退,是威胁老人生命和健康康的重要的危险因素,故应积极春流行病学、有关的危险因素和有效的预防措施,跌倒的发生率是否存在种族或化背景的差异还需要进一步的调查。     

The degree and timing of orthostatic blood pressure changes in relation to falls in nursing home residents

BACKGROUND: Orthostatic hypotension (OH) is traditionally defined as a decline in systolic or diastolic blood pressure of >20 or >10 mm Hg, respectively, after 1 or 3 minutes of upright posture. OH is common in the elderly, but has not been consistently demonstrated to be an independent risk factor for falls in nursing home residents. Previous studies have used the standard definition of OH in assessing fall risk. No study has sought to determine if the timing of postural changes in blood pressure adds prognostic value; if changes in systolic, diastolic, or mean blood pressure are equivalent in predicting subsequent falls; and what degree of decline in blood pressure has the best predictive value. OBJECTIVE: We sought to define the timing and degree of orthostatic changes in blood pressure in a cohort of elderly nursing home residents during active standing and to explore the relationship to subsequent falls to test the hypothesis that orthostatic changes in blood pressure with noninvasive beat-to-beat technology would predict falls in nursing home residents better than the standard definition of OH. METHODS: One hundred eleven elderly (88 +/- 7 years) residents of a long-term care facility had measurement of orthostatic blood pressure changes during active standing for up to 3 minutes with a real-time continuous, noninvasive beat-to-beat blood pressure device. Falls were determined prospectively over a median follow-up period of 270 days (range, 8-657 days). The degree and timing of declines in systolic, diastolic, or mean blood pressure and their association with subsequent falls was determined using a time-to-event analysis. RESULTS: Forty-six subjects (41%) fell. The standard definition of OH was not predictive of subsequent falls (hazard ratio 1.03 at 1 minute and 1.32 at 3 minutes, P = not significant). Other measures of orthostatic blood pressure changes were also not associated with a significant increase in risk for subsequent falls, including declines in blood pressure within the first minute of standing. CONCLUSION: The standard definition of OH was not an independent predictor of falls in frail nursing home residents. A one-time measure for the presence of postural hypotension using beat-to-beat tonometry was not predictive of fall risk. The timing and degree of orthostatic changes in blood pressure does not significantly enhance risk prediction for falls.     

Risk indicators for falls in institutionalized frail elderly

The aim of this study was to identify individual predisposing risk indicators for falls in a sample of institutionalized frail elderly in southern Germany. The design was a prospective observational study with a 1-year follow-up (October 1998-September 1999). The study population included 472 long-term-care residents whose mean age was 84 years; 77% were female. Risk indicators for accidental falls were analyzed by using logistic regression. Residents were found to have an incidence density rate of falls of 2,558 per 1,000 resident-years. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed short-term memory loss, transfer assistance, urinary incontinence, positive fall history, and use of trunk restraints as predictors of falls. In a further logistic regression analysis, depressive symptoms, transfer assistance, urinary incontinence, and positive fall history were associated with frequent falls. Using these risk indicators as a screening procedure to identify fallers would be easy to administer and could be accomplished by nursing staff. Study results encourage specifically addressing urinary incontinence, cognitive impairment, use of restraints, depression, and transfer difficulties as modifiable predisposing risk factors for falls. Fall history represents an important nonmodifiable marker to identify residents at high risk.     

廊坊市燕达养老社区老年人跌倒情况分析

目的 探讨养老社区老年人群跌倒影响因素及预防对策。方法 采用方便抽样方法抽取长期（在该社区生活≥6个月）生活在燕达养老社区中年龄≥60岁老年人进行问卷调查,调查内容为人口学特征、跌倒情况、既往史、个人生活习惯能否正确认识自己的能力、日常生活能力、照明、预防跌倒意识等,对该人群跌倒发生情况进行分析,并采用单、多因素分析方法对跌倒影响因素进行分析。结果 共纳入428名老年人,平均年龄（73.46 ± 6.68）岁。跌倒发生率为24.53%（105/428）。年龄71~80、≥81岁（OR=1.573、1.880）、女性（OR=1.803）、未使用助行器（OR=2.483）、白内障（OR=3.709）、不能正确认识自己的能力（OR=1.546）、未进行规律体育锻炼（OR=5.226）、高血压（OR=3.445）、有跌倒相关慢性疾病（OR=4.101）、使用致跌倒相关药物（OR=1.765）、日常生活能力受损（OR=3.350）、照明差（OR=2.392）、无预防跌倒意识（OR=2.731）、喜欢穿拖鞋出门（OR=5.478）、喜欢饮酒（OR=2.483）者发生跌倒风险较大。结论 燕达养老社区老年人群跌倒发生率较高,危险因素较多,仍需加强对老年人跌倒的预防干预。     

A multivariate regression model predicted falls in residents living in intermediate hostel care

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: To evaluate whether individual falls risk could be predicted in a frail elderly population. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We developed and tested an assessment tool and falls risk score for predicting falls based on a multivariate regression model in a prospective cohort study of intermediate care residents. RESULTS: During the follow-up period, 1,736 falls by 1,107 subjects were recorded with an average of 170 falls per 100 person-years. Fifty percent of the study population had at least one fall within a year. Significant independent risk factors were poor balance, cognitive impairment, incontinence, higher illness severity rating, and older age. Twenty-two percent of participants with a falls risk score > or =7 accounted for 42% of the total falls, with a falls rate of 317 per 100 person-years. This rate was a sixfold increase from the falls rate of 52 per 100 person-years observed in participants with a score < 3. A high score (> or =7) indicated almost a 2 in 3 chance of falling, while a low score (<3) indicated approximately a 1 in 7 chance of falling within 6 months. CONCLUSION: The assessment tool and falls risk score could identify individuals in this frail elderly population at high risk of falls.