模糊时间序列分析在肾综合征出血热发病率预测的应用初探

目的 探讨模糊时间序列分析在传染病发病率预测的应用价值.方法 采用模糊时间序列分析方法,对2004年1月～2010年7月我国内地法定报告的肾综合征出血热(HFRS)逐月发病率资料建立预测模型,并对2010年8月～2010年11月的相应数据进行预测,并将预测结果与传统SARIMA模型预测结果进行比较.结果 本次研究结果显示,模糊时间序列分析相对于SARIMA模型,有较好的预测能力.结论 模糊时间序列分析对于HFRS等传染病发病率的预测具有较好的应用价值.     

医学时间序列谱分析中的日历因素及修正方法

医学现象的科学研究,有时需对客观事物进行 动态观察。按时间顺序排列的随机变量的一组实测值是随机过程的一个实现,称作时间序列。时间序列统计特征研究包括两个范畴:一是基于协方差函数/自相关函数的时域分析,另一是基于功率谱密度函数的频域分析。谱分析算法应注意数据序列的采集方式与最终谱图意义解释之间的一致性问题,     

谱分析方法在医院时间序列资料分析中的应用

目的介绍谱分析方法的原理，探索应用谱分析方法对医院患者住院时间规律进行分析．方法介绍谱分析方法的原理和计算步骤，并以伤害住院儿童为例，应用谱分析方法对医院信息系统中的患者住院时间字列资料进行分析。结果医院住院患者时间序列在频域范围内进行分析，儿童伤害住院人次数的时间规律呈现以6个月为周期的波动。结论利用谱分析能准确地提取周期信息，这对于时间序列数据的进一步处理有着重要的意义．     

视网膜电图振荡电位的提取分析方法

阐述一种视网膜电图振荡电位的频域的时域分析法，并用此法分析了９例９只视网膜分支静脉阻塞患眼，９例９只视网膜中央静脉阻塞患眼和４０只正常对照眼的视网膜电图振荡电位。它对视网膜电图振荡电位作快速城叶变换得到视网膜电图振荡电位的频谱，总功率，最大振幅、最大功率和主频率；     

数字信号处理技术用于生物分子序列的分析

对数字信号处理用于生物分子序列的分析作了初步的概念介绍。主要从时域和频域两方面说明符号序列如何转换为数值序列。     

宁波市镇海区伤寒疫情ARIMA时间序列模型分析

时间序列分析是专门用于分析时间序列资料的统计模型。它考虑的不是变量间的因果关系，而是重点考察变量在时间方面的发展变化规律，并为之建立数学模型。时间序列分析法中又有指数平滑法、自回归线性模型、ARIMA模型和季节解构。这四种方法各有其特点，比较常用的就是ARIMA模型，对于这种预测方法在疾病预防控制中有广泛的用途。     

时间序列分析在麻疹疫情预测预警中的应用研究

目的研究时间序列分析在传染病疫情预测预警中的应用,并探讨提高模型预测准确性和实用性的思路。方法以1952年1月至2006年12月江苏省麻疹发病资料建立时间序列分析模型,以2007年的发病资料作为模型预测效果的考核样本,然后将2007年的实际数据加入到原始序列中建立模型用2008年的数据来考核,并对以年为单位的发病资料进行分析和讨论。先采用差分方法对序列资料进行平稳化,然后进行定阶并估计参数,建立ARIMA模型,最后对预测结果进行分析和评价,探讨对疫情进行预警的方法和思路。结果江苏省麻疹的发病趋势自2006年明显上升之后保持平稳,但有小幅波动,这与实际情况吻合。检验表明模型结果具有较好的参考价值。结论用时间序列分析对传染病发病情况的拟合结果满意,预测和预警效果良好,为传染病防治提供了依据。     

用时间序列分析法进行尘肺流行预测研究

目的 对尘肺的历史流行和中长期预测进行研究。方法 采用线性趋势分析、逐步回归周期分析和平稳随机序列分析的方法,把尘肺患病数量变化的时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项,经叠加后用于中长期预测。结果 揭示1960－1998年福建省尘肺时间序列中存在的规律,得出1999－2007年福建省尘肺患病数的预测值。结论 时间序列分析法可用于尘肺患病娄的预测。     

湖南省恶性肿瘤死亡率时间序列分析及灰色预测

湖南省恶性肿瘤死亡率时间序列分析及灰色预测吴胜其高敏英张亚利对湖南省恶性肿瘤死亡率进行时间序列分析，并应用改进的灰色预测模型预测恶性肿瘤死亡率。１．资料与方法：对湖南省卫生厅１９８２～１９９２年《湖南省２１县、市居民病伤死亡年报资料》，应用随机性检验...     

以心率和心率变异性为指标的疲劳分析系统

从心电信号中提取心率(HR)和心率变异性(HRV),并对其5项时频域指标进行分析。实验结果发现:疲劳后,HRV时域测量指标中的正常R-R间期的标准差(SDNN)明显上升,HRV频域测量指标中的总功率值TP明显上升,低频段功率值LF明显上升,高频段功率值HF明显下降,LF与HF的比值LF/HF明显上升。并根据其上升与下降的速率的不同划分疲劳等级。因而,采用此5项心电图时频域指标,可以对疲劳程度进行定量化的反映和评价。     

Survey of ethylenethiourea (ETU) in ethylenebis(dithiocarbamate) (EBDC) fungicides

Ethylenethiourea (ETU) has been recognized as a compound with adverse toxicological properties. It may occur in ethylenebis(dithiocarbamate) (EBDC) fungicides as a by-product and/or a degradation product. Restrictions have been issued by the Italian Health Authority to keep the level of ETU in EBDC formulations under 0.5% (on an EBDC technical product basis). A survey was carried out on 85 samples of commercial formulations from the Italian market to verify compliance with the above limitation. ETU was extracted by methanol and determined by gas chromatography with a flame ionization detector. Three of the 85 samples (3.5%) exceeded the limit of 0.5% established by the Italian legislation for ETU.     

Diagnostic image (5) (Ileum pathology)

In a 28-year-old woman Crohn's disease was diagnosed. She had drug treatment but the situation deteriorated and ileocoecal resection was carried out. In the surgical specimen the diagnosis was confirmed.     

Crusted (Norwegian) scabies in Dakar (Senegal)

Between January 1993 and June 1997, 30 patients with crusted scabies were seen at the dermatological clinic in Dakar (Senegal). Seventeen of these patients were male and 13 were female. Six were children aged 5 to 15 years and 24 were adults aged 18 to 70 years. Diagnosis of crusted scabies was straightforward because this condition, which was rare in Dakar before 1990, has become much more common and is now familiar to Senegalese dermatologists. The infection presented as an extensive scaly or crusted eruption with symmetrical lesions affecting the hands, feet, knees, elbows and ears in particular. Scalp involvement was reported in 25 patients. Erythrodermia was present in 4 cases and pachyonychia in 4 cases. Twenty-seven of the 30 patients had moderate or severe pruritus, whereas an absence of pruritus is regarded as a classical characteristic of crusted scabies. Diagnosis was readily confirmed by examination of hyperkeratotic material under the microscope: numerous mites and eggs were present. The two most common etiological factors were auto-immune diseases (6 cases, 4 of whom were receiving no steroid or other immunosuppressive treatment at the time of onset of crusted scabies) and malnutrition (5 of the 6 children in the study). The other associated conditions identified were: physical debilitation (4 cases), HIV infection (3), mental disability-Down's syndrome (3) and long term use of topical steroids for artificial depigmentation (2). Two patients were immunocompetent and 5 patients died shortly after diagnosis, before any underlying conditions could be identified. Seven patients were cured with benzyl benzoate. Seven others, all adults, received a single oral dose of ivermectin (200 mg/kg) and topical kerolytic drugs. Ivermectin was ineffective in 1 case, and an improvement was observed in another case, although a complete cure was achieved only after a second dose. The other patients were all cured and showed no signs of scabies one month after ivermectin treatment. A recurrence was observed in 3 patients a few months later however, suggesting that these patients were reinfected. No side effects were reported in any of the patients treated with ivermectin.     

Diagnostic image (6) (Pustulous skin lesions)

During chemotherapy a 35-year-old woman developed pustulous skin lesions. Biopsies of these lesions showed Candida albicans. Blood cultures were positive for C. albicans. The patient died.