2011—2015年北京市儿童流行性感冒流行特征分析

目的 了解北京市儿童2011—2015年流行性感冒(流感)的流行特征和流感病毒优势株的变化,为儿童流感的防控提供参考.方法 利用北京市儿童医院2011—2015年监测到的流感样病例(influenza like illness,ILI)及流感病原学监测数据,分析流感流行趋势和流感病毒的构成情况.结果 在7331597例门、急诊病例中监测到ILI 638623例,ILI占门、急诊就诊病例的8.71％,0～岁组所占比例最高,为69.56％;采集门诊ILI咽拭子标本5351例,其中流感病毒核酸阳性515例.各年份优势毒株构成不同,夏季也出现了ILI就诊的高峰.结论 2011—2015年各年份流感流行高峰出现在冬春季,小于5岁儿童是主要易感人群,建议夏季就诊高峰对儿童ILI开展多病原检测,从而可采取有针对性的预防及治疗措施.     

2015年中国大陆流行性感冒流行特征分析

【摘要】 目的  对2015年流行性感冒的监测结果及流行特征进行分析总结,对2016的流行趋势进行预判。 方法  统计中国流感监测信息系统以及突发公共卫生事件信息管理系统2015年全年中国大陆地区的流感样病例（ILI）监测数据以及流感样病例爆发疫情数据。 结果  2015年夏季南方出现了流行高峰,北方维持在低水平,均为A（H3N2）亚型占绝对优势。南北方省份均在12月份开始相继进入2015~2016冬春季流感流行季节,甲型H1N1、A（H3N2）和B型共同流行。 结论  预计2016年2月下旬,流感活动水平将达到峰值,春夏季中国大陆省份将以甲型H1N1、 A（H3N2）和B型流感共同流行,但以甲型H1N1流感为主要流行株。     

2009-2010年度葫芦岛市流感监测结果分析

目的分析葫芦岛市2009-2010年度流感流行特点及病原学变化规律,为流感防控提供科学依据。方法计算哨点医院流感样病例就诊比例,并采集流感样病例标本进行病原学检测。结果流感样病例就诊比例平均为4.93%,高峰出现在2009年第43 45周;15岁以下年龄组发病较高;病毒核酸检测阳性率为33.86%,甲型H1N1亚型最多占55.73%,但不同时期优势型别不同。结论甲型H1N1流感的流行造成了流感流行强度的大幅波动,流行强度与病毒型别及人群免疫力有关,防控重点为青少年、儿童。     

湖北省市级血防机构科研水平现况研究

目的 目的 评价湖北省17个市级血防机构血吸虫病研究文献产出水平。 方法 方法 以中国知网、 维普、 万方数据为数 据源, 检索2008-2012年湖北省市级血防机构发表的血吸虫病研究相关文献, 按纳入排除标准筛选后, 采用NoteExpress 软件和Excel软件进行文献计量学及内容分析。 结果 结果 共168篇文献纳入分析。荆州市、 武汉市血防机构的文献发表量 最高。文献主要发表在 《中国血吸虫病防治杂志》 和 《公共卫生与预防医学》。文献综合影响指数较高的3个市依次为荆 州、 武汉和潜江。荆州市的文献内容范围较广泛, 武汉市文献内容则主要集中于血吸虫病流行病学调查、 临床病例报告、 钉螺控制等方面。 结论 结论 各地血吸虫病研究内容广泛, 荆州市的血防科研能力尤为突出, 在以后的科研工作中应积极 发挥模范带头作用。     

2007—2008年新疆流感监测结果分析

目的分析2007—2008年新疆流行性感冒（流感）流行特征和流感病毒优势株的情况。方法收集、分析监测哨点医院流感样病例及实验室病原学资料,用细胞培养分离并用血球凝集抑制试验对流感病毒进行分型。结果监测哨点医院2007—2008年流感样病例处于较为平稳的水平,无明显的流行高峰,病例相对集中在2007年12月-2008年1月,此监测年度无疫情暴发报告;共收集流感样病例标本589份,分离病毒60株,阳性率为10．19％;其中B（Yamagata）型52株（86％）,H3N2亚型7株（12％）,H1N1亚型1株（2％）。结论2007—2008年新疆流感活动较为平稳,流行毒株以B（Yamagata）型病毒为主,并有向H3N2亚型转化的趋势。     

绝经综合征各类影响因素文献分析

目的 整理分析绝经综合征相关影响因素.方法 检索中国知网、万方、维普、中国生物医学文献服务系统等中文数据库,对符合纳入标准,研究绝经综合征相关影响因素的文献进行计量统计分析.结果 共纳入文献133篇,总体发文量呈逐年上升趋势,主要发表期刊为《中国妇幼保健》《护理研究》《中国老年学杂志》等;获课题基金支持的研究46篇(3...     

妊娠合并甲型H1N1流行性感冒的临床特征及1年随访分析

在此次甲型H1N1流行性感冒(流感)大流行中,各国均将妊娠作为甲型H1N1流感感染的高危因素[1-3].近来,甲型H1N1流感在世界各地再次出现小范围流行,个别地区出现死亡病例,其影响仍不可小视,且感染后对母婴健康的影响,国内外尚鲜见相关研究.本研究回顾性描述分析32例妊娠合并甲型H1N1流感患者住院及1年随访的临床资料,总结其临床特点并分析其对患者健康状况的影响.     

2009～2010年度济南市流感监测结果分析

目的了解2009~2010年度济南市流感流行特征及流感流行优势毒株的分布,为流感防治工作提供科学依据。方法对济南市2009~2010年度流感监测哨点医院流感样病例、病原学监测结果及暴发疫情资料进行描述性分析。结果济南市2009~2010年流感监测哨点医院流感样病例就诊百分比为3.69%,较上年度大幅上升,呈现春、夏、冬季三个流行高峰,其中冬季高峰较往年提前,且持续时间最长。流感哨点医院病原学监测结果呈现多种流感病毒交替或混合流行的特点,有明显的季节性分布特点。不同人群流感病毒核酸阳性率及各型别阳性率不同,其中15~24岁年龄组流感病毒阳性率及甲型H1N1阳性率最高。全市报告37起流感样病例暴发疫情,为济南市历史上报告疫情最多年份。结论2009~2010年度济南市流感活动较强,呈现春、夏、冬季三个流行高峰;流感流行优势毒株随季节变化而明显不同。     

“知信行”在中国结核病防治领域的应用情况分析

目的 了解“知信行”理论在我国结核病防治领域应用现状及存在的问题.方法 采用系统综述的方法,检索2015年5月前我国以中文形式发表的“知信行”在结核病防治领域应用的文献并进行描述性分析.检索数据库为“中国知网(CNKI),万方数据库,维普中文科技期刊数据库”,通过主题词检索,共查到文献1789篇.按照纳入与排除标准最终纳入文献144篇.结果 本研究纳入文献起自1999年,2007年前共发表13篇,占9.03％(13/144);2007年增至14篇,占9.72％(14/144);2009年达高峰,为23篇,占15.97％(23/144);此后出现下降趋势,至2013年再次上升.研究内容以了解“知信行”现状为最多,有62篇,占43.06％(62/144).可分出知识、态度或信念、行为(即“知信行”)三类题目者106篇,占73.61％(106/144);仅包括一类或两类题目者28篇,占19.44％(28/144);未介绍或仅介绍部分题目者10篇,占6.94％(10/144).“知信行”三类问题间具有相关性者57篇,占53.77％(57/106);采用“知信行”理论进行行为研究者22篇,占38.60％(22/57),占纳入文献总数的15.28％(22/144).结论 2007年是“知信行”在我国结核病防治领域研究文献发表的分界点,已发表文献中大部分文献未设定知、信、行三类问题或问题间元相关性,仅少量文献采用“知信行”理论进行了行为研究.     

输入型肺组织胞浆菌病的临床和影像及病理学特征

目的 探讨输入型肺组织胞浆菌病的临床、影像及病理特征及治疗方法,提高临床医生对该病的鉴别诊断能力.方法 对3例输入型肺组织胞浆菌病病例的临床、影像及病理学表现和治疗进行分析,并分别以“imported pulmonary histoplasmosis"、“输入病例”和“肺组织胞浆菌”为关键词在PubMed数据库和中国期刊全文数据库、万方数据库和维普数据库中检索1989-2014年发表的相关文献,对其中所有输入型肺组织胞浆菌病病例进行分析,阐述输入型肺组织胞浆菌病的临床特征、诊断和治疗措施.结果 3例肺组织胞浆菌病患者均为免疫正常宿主,均为男性,年龄44～67岁,有流行区蝙蝠洞/坑道暴露史,发病后症状轻重不一,但均出现流感样症状,影像学表现为双肺多发随机分布的结节影,伴纵隔淋巴结肿大.3例分别行经皮肺穿刺或开胸肺活检,病理组织学均表现为肉芽肿性炎症伴坏死,1例穿刺肺组织培养肺组织胞浆菌阳性.3例经伊曲康唑治疗后肺部病变吸收良好.共检索到13篇关于输入型肺组织胞浆菌病的外文文献,共报道60例患者,男42例,女16例,未报道性别2例,年龄为17 ～64岁.未检索到中文文献.这些患者的共同特征与本文病例一致,即流行病学史、流感样症状、双肺多发结节样病变,经抗真菌治疗或自行好转.结论 输入型肺组织胞浆菌病例的流行病史、流感样症状、双肺多发结节样病变等临床表现有重要的诊断价值,如果排除其他原因,即使无明确病原,根据临床表现、组织病理和对抗真菌治疗的良好反应也可诊断.     

Association of early annual peak influenza activity with El Niño southern oscillation in Japan

Background Seasonality characterizing influenza epidemics suggests susceptibility to climate variation. El Niño southern oscillation (ENSO), which involves two extreme events, El Niño and La Niña, is well‐known for its large effects on inter‐annual climate variability. The influence of ENSO on several diseases has been described. Objectives In this study, we attempt to analyze the possible influence of ENSO on the timing of the annual influenza activity peak using influenza‐like illness report data in Japan during 1983–2007. Materials Influenza surveillance data for 25 influenza epidemics, available under the National Epidemiological Surveillance of the Infectious Diseases, was used in this study. ENSO data were obtained from the Japan Meteorological Agency. Results Influenza‐like illness peak week varied largely during the study period, ranging between 4th and 11th weeks (middle of winter to early spring). The average of peak week during ENSO cycles (n = 11, average = 4·5 ± 0·9) was significantly earlier than in non‐ENSO years (n = 14, average = 7·6 ± 2·9; P = 0·01), but there was no significant difference in the peak timing between hot (El Niño) and cold (La Niña) phases. Earlier peaks of influenza activity were observed in 16, out of 25, epidemics. These coincided with 10 (90·9%) out of 11 ENSO and 6 (85·7%) out of seven large‐scale epidemics. Conclusion Influenza activity peak occurred earlier in years associated with ENSO and/or large scale epidemics.     

Predicting high-risk years for malaria in Colombia using parameters of El Niño Southern Oscillation

The interannual variation in malaria cases in Colombia between 1960 and 1992 shows a close association with a periodic climatic phenomenon known as El Niño Southern Oscilation (ENSO). Compared with other years, malaria cases increased by 17.3% during a Niño year and by 35.1% in the post Niño year. The annual total number of malaria cases is also strongly correlated ( r = 0.62, P < 0.001) with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a principal parameter of ENSO. The strong relation between malaria and ENSO in colombia can be used to predict high and low-risk years for malaria with sufficient time to mobilize resources to reduce the impact of epidemics. In view of the current El Niño conditions, we anticipate an increase in malaria cases in Colombia in 1998. Further studies to elucidate the mechanisms which underlie the association are required. As Colombia has a wide range of climatic conditions, regional studies relating climate and vector ecology to malaria incidence may further improve an ENSO-based early warning system. Predicting malaria risk associated with ENSO and related climate variables may also serve as a short-term analogue for predicting longer-term effects posed by global climate change.     

Influenza Vaccines: A Moving Interdisciplinary Field

Vaccination is by far the most effective way of preventing morbidity and mortality due to infection of the upper respiratory tract by influenza virus. Current vaccines require yearly vaccine updates as the influenza virus can escape vaccine-induced humoral immunity due to the antigenic variability of its surface antigens. In case of a pandemic, new vaccines become available too late with current vaccine practices. New technologies that allow faster production of vaccine seed strains in combination with alternative production platforms and vaccine formulations may shorten the time gap between emergence of a new influenza virus and a vaccine becoming available. Adjuvants may allow antigen-sparing, allowing more people to be vaccinated with current vaccine production capacity. Adjuvants and universal vaccines can target immune responses to more conserved influenza epitopes, which eventually will result in broader protection for a longer time. In addition, further immunological studies are needed to gain insights in the immune features that contribute to protection from influenza-related disease and mortality, allowing redefinition of correlates of protection beyond virus neutralization in vitro.     

ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change?

We present here quantitative evidence for an increased role of interannual climate variability on the temporal dynamics of an infectious disease. The evidence is based on time-series analyses of the relationship between El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and cholera prevalence in Bangladesh (formerly Bengal) during two different time periods. A strong and consistent signature of ENSO is apparent in the last two decades (1980-2001), while it is weaker and eventually uncorrelated during the first parts of the last century (1893-1920 and 1920-1940, respectively). Concomitant with these changes, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) undergoes shifts in its frequency spectrum. These changes include an intensification of the approximately 4-yr cycle during the recent interval as a response to the well documented Pacific basin regime shift of 1976. This change in remote ENSO modulation alone can only partially serve to substantiate the differences observed in cholera. Regional or basin-wide changes possibly linked to global warming must be invoked that seem to facilitate ENSO transmission. For the recent cholera series and during specific time intervals corresponding to local maxima in ENSO, this climate phenomenon accounts for over 70% of disease variance. This strong association is discontinuous in time and can only be captured with a technique designed to isolate transient couplings.     

New estimates of influenza-related pneumonia and influenza hospitalizations among the elderly.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study is to present a method to provide accurate estimates of influenza-associated pneumonia and influenza (P&I) hospitalizations and costs for use in tracking the continuing burden of influenza. METHODS: We estimated influenza-associated P&I hospitalizations among the U.S. elderly population for six influenza seasons, 1990-91 through 1995-96, by applying a Poisson regression model to national influenza virus surveillance information and Medicare administrative data. This model is similar to that recently published by the U.S. National Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) to estimate influenza-related mortality. RESULTS: During the six years of the study, 318,666 (9.8%) of P&I hospitalizations were estimated to be associated with influenza: range = 25,819 to 70,068 per year; average annual cost = $372.3 million. Influenza A(H3N2) was associated with 73.9% of influenza-related P&I hospitalizations; influenza B with 21.3% and influenza A(H1N1) with 4.8%. CONCLUSIONS: Our estimates were consistent with the estimates of influenza-associated P&I mortality reported by CDC. Thus, we suggest that estimates of influenza-associated morbidity and costs based on virus surveillance and administrative data may be used for monitoring the impact of influenza and of intervention strategies.     

Influenza-related mortality among adults aged 25-54 years with AIDS in South Africa and the United States of america

Background.?Data are limited on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-associated influenza burden in sub-Saharan Africa and the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We compared influenza-related mortality in adults with AIDS in South Africa and the United States in the pre-HAART era and evaluated mortality trends after HAART introduction in the United States. Methods.?Monthly all-cause and pneumonia and influenza (P&I) mortality rates were compiled for adults with AIDS aged 25-54 years in South Africa (1998-2005) and the United States (pre-HAART era, 1987-1994; HAART era, 1997-2005). We estimated influenza-related deaths as excess mortality above a model baseline during influenza epidemic periods. Influenza-related mortality rates in adults with AIDS were compared with rates for age peers in the general population and adults ≥65 years old. Results.?In the United States before HAART, influenza-related mortality rates in adults with AIDS were 150 (95% confidence interval [CI], 49-460) and 208 (95% CI, 74-583) times greater than in the general population for all-cause and P&I deaths, respectively, and 2.5 (95% CI, 0.9-7.2) and 4.1 (95% CI, 1.4-13) times higher than in elderly adults. After HAART introduction , influenza-related mortality in adults with AIDS dropped 3-6-fold but remained elevated compared with the general population (all-cause relative risk [RR], 44 [95% CI, 16-121]); P&I RR, 73 [95% CI, 47-113]). Influenza-related mortality in South African adults with AIDS in recent years was similar to that in the United States in the pre-HAART era. Conclusions.?Adults with AIDS experience substantially elevated influenza-associated mortality, which declines with widespread HAART introduction but does not disappear. These data support increased access to HAART and influenza vaccination for HIV-infected adults.     

El Niño and health

El Ni?o Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a climate event that originates in the Pacific Ocean but has wide-ranging consequences for weather around the world, and is especially associated with droughts and floods. The irregular occurrence of El Ni?o and La Ni?a events has implications for public health. On a global scale, the human effect of natural disasters increases during El Ni?o. The effect of ENSO on cholera risk in Bangladesh, and malaria epidemics in parts of South Asia and South America has been well established. The strongest evidence for an association between ENSO and disease is provided by time-series analysis with data series that include more than one event. Evidence for ENSO's effect on other mosquito-borne and rodent-borne diseases is weaker than that for malaria and cholera. Health planners are used to dealing with spatial risk concepts but have little experience with temporal risk management. ENSO and seasonal climate forecasts might offer the opportunity to target scarce resources for epidemic control and disaster preparedness.     

Strong influence of El Ni?o Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability and has a strong influence on climate over large parts of the world. In turn, it strongly influences many natural hazards (such as hurricanes and droughts) and their resulting socioeconomic impacts, including economic damage and loss of life. However, although ENSO is known to influence hydrology in many regions of the world, little is known about its influence on the socioeconomic impacts of floods (i.e., flood risk). To address this, we developed a modeling framework to assess ENSO’s influence on flood risk at the global scale, expressed in terms of affected population and gross domestic product and economic damages. We show that ENSO exerts strong and widespread influences on both flood hazard and risk. Reliable anomalies of flood risk exist during El Niño or La Niña years, or both, in basins spanning almost half (44%) of Earth’s land surface. Our results show that climate variability, especially from ENSO, should be incorporated into disaster-risk analyses and policies. Because ENSO has some predictive skill with lead times of several seasons, the findings suggest the possibility to develop probabilistic flood-risk projections, which could be used for improved disaster planning. The findings are also relevant in the context of climate change. If the frequency and/or magnitude of ENSO events were to change in the future, this finding could imply changes in flood-risk variations across almost half of the world’s terrestrial regions.El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the most dominant interannual signal of climate variability on Earth (1) and influences climate over large parts of the Earth’s surface. In turn, ENSO is known to strongly influence many physical processes and societal risks, including droughts, food production, hurricane damage, and tropical tree cover (2–4). For decision makers it is essential to have information on the possible impacts of this climate variability on society. Such information can be particularly useful when the climate variability can be anticipated in advance, thus allowing for early warning and disaster planning (5). For example, projections carried out in September 2013 already suggested a 75% likelihood that El Niño conditions would develop in late 2014 (6). According to the ENSO forecast of the International Research Institute for Climate and Society and the Climate Prediction Center/NCEP/NWS, dated 9 October 2014, observed ENSO conditions did indeed move to those of a borderline El Niño during September and October 2014, with indications of weak El Niño conditions during the northern hemisphere winter 2014–2015 (iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/current/).However, to date little is known on ENSO’s influence on flood risk, whereby risk is defined as a function of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability (7) and is expressed in terms of socioeconomic indicators such as economic damage or affected people. Although global-scale flood-risk assessments have recently become a hot topic in both the scientific and policy communities, assessments to date have focused on current risks (7–11) or future risks under long-term mean climate change (12, 13). Meanwhile, other recent research suggests that ENSO-related variations of precipitation are likely to intensify in the future (14, 15) and that extreme El Niño events may increase in frequency (16). Hence, an understanding of ENSO’s influence on flood risk is vital in understanding both the possible impacts of upcoming ENSO events as well as planning for the potential socioeconomic impacts of changes in future ENSO frequency.In this paper, we show for the first time to our knowledge that ENSO has a very strong influence on flood risk in large parts of the world. These findings build on previous studies, especially in Australia and the United States, which show that ENSO and other forms of climate variability are strongly related to flood hazard in some regions (17–25). To do this, we developed a modeling framework to specifically assess ENSO’s influence on global flood risk. The modeling framework involves using a cascade of hydrological, hydraulic, and impact models (10, 11). Using this model cascade, we assessed flood impacts in terms of three indicators: (i) exposed population, (ii) exposed gross domestic product (GDP), and (iii) urban damage (Materials and Methods). A novel aspect of the framework is that we are able to calculate flood risk conditioned on the climatology of all years, El Niño years only, and La Niña years only. This allows us, for the first time to our knowledge, to simulate the impacts of ENSO on flood risk. The hydrological and impact models have previously been validated for the period 1958–2000 (11). Here, we carried out further validation to assess the specific ability of the model cascade to simulate year-to-year fluctuations in peak river flows and flood impacts and anomalies in peak flows and impacts during El Niño and La Niña years (SI Discussion, Validation of Hydrological and Hydraulic Models).     

El Niño and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO): The largest signal in interannual climate variation

El Ni?o and the related phenomenon Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the strongest signal in the interannual variation of ocean-atmosphere system. It is mainly a tropical event but its impact is global. ENSO has been drawing great scientific attention in many international research programs. There has been an observational system for the tropical ocean, and scientists have known the climatologies of the upper ocean, developed some theories about the ENSO cycle, and established coupled ocean-atmosphere models to give encouraging predictions of ENSO for a 1-year lead. However, questions remain about the physical mechanisms for the ENSO cycle and its irregularity, ENSO-monsoon interactions, long-term variation of ENSO, and increasing the predictive skill of ENSO and its related climate variations.