新亚特兰大分类下不同CT评分标准早期预测急性胰腺炎器官衰竭的价值比较

目的基于急性胰腺炎新亚特兰大分类,比较Balthazar CT严重指数(Balthazar computed tomography severity index,CTSI)、修正CT严重指数(modified computed tomography severity index,MCTSI)和胰腺外炎症评分(extrapancreatic inflammation on CT,EPIC)对急性胰腺炎早期发生器官衰竭的预测价值。方法回顾性分析2013年12月至2014年1月期间笔者所在医院因急性胰腺炎入院治疗患者的临床资料,绘制其CTSI、MCTSI、EPIC、局部并发症及急性胰腺炎严重程度床边指数(beside index of severity in acute pancreatitis,BISAP)和新日本急性胰腺炎严重程度评分(new Japanese severity score,NJSS)诊断早期器官衰竭的受试者特征曲线,计算曲线下面积。结果 1 54例患者基线资料如年龄、性别、首次腹痛至检查间隔时间方面的差异均无统计学意义(P0.05)。2 CTSI、MCTSI、EPIC及局部并发症评价早期器官衰竭具有统计学意义(P0.05)。临床评分系统BISAP和NJSS评价早期器官衰竭无统计学意义(P0.05)。结论 CT评分系统能在早期准确预测急性胰腺炎发生器官衰竭情况。     

三种早期预警评分系统预测急性冠脉综合征患者心脏骤停的比较

目的比较改良早期预警评分(MEWS)、重要性早期预警评分(ViEWS)、国家早期预警评分(NEWS)3种评分系统预测急性冠脉综合征住院患者发生心脏骤停的效能,了解预测心脏骤停的敏感时间。方法采取病例对照研究的方法,选取福建省3所三级甲等医院急性冠脉综合征患者,以发生心脏骤停的164例急性冠脉综合征住院患者为病例组,以未发生心脏骤停的521例急性冠脉综合征患者为对照组。预测效能根据ROC曲线下面积进行评价。结果在心脏骤停前8h MEWS、NEWS、ViEWS ROC曲线面积分别是0.73、0.74、0.76,Youden指数分别是0.37、0.36、0.39。ViEWS最佳临界值为5分。结论 ViEWS对急性冠脉综合征住院患者心脏骤停的预测效能略优于另外2种评分系统,心脏骤停前8h能较早地预测心脏骤停的发生。     

基于预测评分系统的高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症的预防策略

目的 探讨高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生的危险因素和预防策略.方法 收集2006年1月至2009年12月间北京大学人民医院胃肠外科收治并行手术治疗的107例高龄结直肠癌患者(75岁以上)的临床资料.应用POSSUM、E-POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率,并用ROC曲线及实际例数／预测例数(O/E)比值评估其效度;采用Logistic回归分析影响并发症发生的独立危险因素.结果 E-POSSUM和POSSUM评分系统预测术后并发症发生率分别为13.9％～86.6％(平均32.7％)和19.1％～99.1％(平均55.5％),E-POSSUM评分系统优于POSSUM评分系统[ ROC曲线下面积(AUC值):0.862比0.576];O/E:0.771比0.454,更加接近于实际并发症发生率(25.2％,27/107).术前合并糖尿病(P=0.019)和发病部位为直肠(P=0.005)是手术相关并发症的独立危险因素;吻合口瘘为最常见的手术相关并发症;术前合并慢性阻塞性肺病(P=0.026)、术前ASA分级(P=0.025)、术前肠梗阻(P=0.037)及术前肠穿孔(P=0.001)是非手术相关并发症的独立危险因素;肺部感染是最常见的非手术相关并发症.结论 术前应用E-POSSUM评分系统可对高龄结直肠癌患者术后并发症发生率进行较为准确的预测;对于并发症发生高危患者术前应积极干预高危因素,以预防术后并发症的发生.     

结合虚拟现实技术的H.L.P.E.S.评分系统对输尿管软镜术后结石清除率的预测价值

回顾性分析我院收治的120例行输尿管软镜(FURS)治疗肾结石患者的临床资料, 采用虚拟现实技术测量影像学相关数据。单因素分析结果显示肾盂肾盏高度(H)、肾盏漏斗部长度(L)、肾盂容积(P)、结石密度(E)和结石表面积(S)与结石清除率密切相关。根据上述因素构建H.L.P.E.S.评分系统, 预测FURS术后结石清除率。H.L.P.E.S.、S.O.L.V.E.评分系统的受试者工作特征曲线下面积分别为0.921、0.754, H.L.P.E.S.评分系统具有更高的预测价值。     

常用风险评估系统在心脏手术后风险评估中的应用

目的 比较多器官衰竭评分系统(MODS)、序贯器官衰竭评分系统(SOFA)、急性生理及慢性健康评分系统(APACHE)Ⅱ、APACHE Ⅲ对患者心脏手术后风险评估的价值,为重症患者的治疗及预测预后提供依据. 方法 自2007年10月至2008年4月,北京安贞医院心脏外科监护室收治18岁以上心脏手术后患者共1 935例,男1 050例,女885例;年龄18～86岁,平均年龄53.96岁.病种包括冠心病、心瓣膜病、先天性心脏病、动脉瘤、心房颤动、心包疾病、肺动脉栓塞等.采用MODS、SOFA、APACHE Ⅱ、APACHE Ⅲ系统进行评分,分别计算各评分系统的手术当天分值、3 d内最大分值、最大分值、第3 d与第1 d的差值,再计算各评分系统不同时段的ROC曲线下面积,并进行Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验. 结果 围术期死亡47例,死亡率2.43%,主要死于循环功能、呼吸功能、肾功能、肝功能衰竭和神经系统病变.MODS评分系统的手术当天分值、最大MODS值、手术3 d内最大MODS值和手术后第3 d与第1 d的MODS分值差ROC曲线下面积分别为0.747,0.901,0.892,0.786;χ2值分别为4.712, 5.905, 5.384, 13.215.SOFA系统ROC曲线下面积分别为0.736,0.891,0.880,0.798;χ2值分别为8.673, 3.189, 3.111, 14.225.APACHE Ⅱ系统ROC曲线下面积分别为0.699, 0.848, 0.827, 0.562;χ2值分别为15.688, 10.132,8.061, 42.253.APACHE Ⅲ系统ROC曲线下面积分别为0.721, 0.872,0.869, 0.587;χ2值分别为13.608,11.196, 19.310, 47.576.MODS和SOFA评分系统的ROC曲线下面积均大于APACHE Ⅱ或APACHE Ⅲ评分系统的相应值(P<0.05);APACHE Ⅱ评分系统的ROC曲线下面积均小于APACHE Ⅲ评分系统的相应值(P<0.05). 结论 MODS、SOFA、APACHE Ⅱ、APACHE Ⅲ系统都可用于心脏外科手术后患者的风险评估,但MODS和SOFA系统对死亡的风险评估优于APACHE Ⅱ、APACHE Ⅲ系统.在心脏外科中,可以用简单的MODS和SOFA系统替代复杂的APACHE Ⅱ、APACHE Ⅲ系统.     

运用改良POSSUM评分系统预测颈椎手术并发症发生率

目的 探讨改良生理学和手术严重度评分系统(POSSUM)对预测颈椎手术患者术后并发症发生率的意义.方法 根据颈椎手术特点修改POSSUM评分系统中的部分指标(将手术严重度指标中的手术范围和手术次数替换为手术方式和手术持续时间.在生理学指标中增加颈椎核磁共振检查),并对183例颈椎手术患者术后并发症实际发生率和理论预测率进行比较.结果 按Copland公式理论预测有59例(32.2%)发生并发症,实际发生为52例(28.4%),二者比较,差异无显著性意义(P>0.05).结论 改良POSSUM评分系统能较准确地预测颈椎手术并发症发生率,对临床医疗护理工作有重要的指导意义.     

外科手术的风险预测与临床评价

外科手术的风险与手术的时机、患者的生理病理状态以及施术者的素质有密切的关系。传统观点认为,严重的临床合并症、急性生理紊乱及手术创伤大小是决定手术风险的重要因素。目前已建立不少评分系统,常用的达18种之多[1],以评估外科患者的并发症、死亡率和影响预后的危机因素,但各有其优点和不足之处,就应用范围而论APACHEⅡ和POSSUM评分法较为普遍所接受。现介绍几种习用的外科手术风险预测评分系统,并将其应用价值作简要评价。1.美国麻醉学家协会分级标准(ASA):自1963年以来ASA分级已广泛应用于临床,根据患者的病史和体检分成5级:…     

APACHE-O评分系统对急性重症胰腺炎的预测价值

目的 探讨APACHE-O评分系统(APACHE-Ⅱ 肥胖指标评分)对急性重症胰腺炎的预测价值.方法 2004年1月1日至2006年1月1日间急性胰腺炎患者142例,根据体重指数(bodv mass index,BMI)分组,把BMI≥26 kg/m归为肥胖组,BMI＜26 kg/m归为非肥胖组.比较两组患者病情严重程度及并发症等发生情况.分别计算入院24 h内APACHE-Ⅱ和APACHE-O评分在不同临界点对急性重症胰腺炎预测的敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和准确性,绘制APACHE-Ⅱ和APACHE-O评分受试者工作曲线(receive-operating curves,ROC).通过比较ROC的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)来比较两评分系统的预测准确性.结果 肥胖组中急性重症胰腺炎患者比例显著高于非肥胖组(P＜0.05),肥胖组中胰腺坏死、胰腺假性囊肿及肺功能衰竭发生率显著高于非肥胖组(P＜0.05).取临界点为8时,APACHE-Ⅱ和APACHE-O评分对急性重症胰腺炎预测的敏感性、特异性、阳性预测值、阴性预测值和准确性分别为78.9%,85.4%,45.5%,96.3%,84.5%和78.9%,82.1%,40.5%,96.2%,81.7%.APACHE-Ⅱ和APACHE-O评分的ROC的AUC分别为0.864和0.870,提示APACHE-O评分对重症胰腺炎预测价值稍高于APACHE-Ⅱ评分.结论 肥胖型急性胰腺炎患者预后更差.与入院时A-PACHE-Ⅱ评分比较,APACHE-O评分对急性重症胰腺炎的预测价值略高于APACHE-Ⅱ,为理想的急性重症胰腺炎预测系统.     

院内创伤评分及结果预测系统的现状

院内创伤评分及结果预测系统的现状谭宗奎陈庄洪自６０年代以来，一些学者在创伤评分及结果预测方面做了大量研究，历经３０余年的发展及逐步改进与完善，目前已形成院外和院内两大评分体系，其中院内评分应用最多，每种方法各有其侧重面和优缺点。本文介绍几种目前常用和...     

三种危险评分系统对二次冠状动脉旁路移植术后早期病死率的预测价值

目的 评价EuroScore、STS Score、SinoScore对二次冠状动脉旁路移植术早期病死率的预测价值.方法 回顾分析1997年1月至201 1年7月在阜外心血管病医院行二次冠状动脉旁路移植术的57例患者临床资料,使用3个评分系统分别计算每例患者的预测病死率以及全组患者的平均预测病死率,与实际病死率做对比,利用受试者特征曲线(ROC)来评价各评分系统的分辨力.结果 全组57例患者,早期死亡4例,实际病死率为7％,EuroScore、STS Score、SinoScore预测的平均病死率分别为:5.6％、2.2％、1.5％,均低于实际病死率,ROC面积分别为:0.495、0.557、0.535,表明3个评分系统预测的死亡风险与实际死亡风险之间相关性差.结论 EuroScore、STS Score、SinoScore对二次冠状动脉旁路移植术早期死亡风险的预测价值较低,手术技术是影响术后早期病死率的重要因素.     

SinoSCORE对成人心脏手术后院内死亡风险的预测——中国成人心脏外科数据库华西医院数据报告

目的评价中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术风险评估系统(Sino System for Coronary Operative Risk Evalua-tion,SinoSCORE)对华西医院(本中心)成人心脏手术后院内死亡风险的预测价值。方法连续纳入2010年1月至2012年5月进入中国成人心脏外科数据库、本中心2 088例行心脏手术患者的临床资料,比较本中心与中国成人心脏外科数据库中所有患者术前危险因素的差异。计算每例患者的SinoSCORE累计积分,评价SinoSCORE预测本中心患者院内死亡风险的鉴别度和校准度。结果本中心2 088例患者中行冠状动脉旁路移植术(CABG)168例(8.05%),心瓣膜手术1 884例(90.23%),其它手术36例(1.72%)。本中心患者的高脂血症、脑卒中、心血管手术史、肾脏疾病等与中国成人心脏外科数据库中全部患者的差异有统计学意义。本中心患者实际术后院内病死率为2.25%(47/2 088),SinoSCORE预测院内病死率为2.35%(49/2 088)[95%CI(2.18,2.47)]。SinoSCORE预测本中心患者术后院内病死率的校准度(χ2=3.164,P=0.582)和鉴别度[受试者工作特征曲线下面积0.751,95%CI(0.719,0.924)]均较好。结论 SinoSCORE对中国西南地区成人心脏手术后院内死亡风险的预测虽高估风险,但仍适用。     

SinoSCORE对手术风险的评估作用

目的 评价中国冠状动脉旁路移植手术评分系统(SinoSCORE)对冠状动脉旁路移植手术(CABG)院内病死率和术后并发症的预测效果.方法 中国心血管外科注册登记研究收集来自全国43家心脏外科中心2007年至2008年接受CABG的9564例病人的临床资料.应用logistic回归的统计学方法建立中国冠状动脉旁路移植术风险评分系统(SinoSCORE).本模型确定了包括年龄大于65岁、术前NYHA心功能分级、慢性肾功能衰竭史、慢性阻塞性肺疾病等11个危险因素.根据SinoSCORE评分将病人分为:低危组(≤1分)、中危组(2～5分)与高危组(≥6分).评价SinoSCORE对CABG院内病死率和术后并发症的预测效果,应用Homser-Lemeshow(HL)拟合优度检验考察SinoSCORE的校准度,应用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)评价SinoSCORE的区分度,并与EuroSCORE进行比较.通过比较观察病死率与预测病死率95%置信区间的差异,评估SinoSCORE对不同危险组病人院内病死率的预测功能.结果 SinoSCORE对CABG手术病死率与术后主要并发症表现出较好的预测效果:手术病死率HL拟合优度检验为P=0.70,AUC=0.80,术后主要并发症:卒中为HL P=0.43,AUC=0.76;肾衰为HL P=0.70,AUC=0.72;通气时间延长(＞24 h)为HL P=0.18,AUC=0.70;多系统衰竭为HL P=0.49,AUC=0.79,效果优于EuroSCORE.在3组不同危险程度的病人中,观察病死率与预测病死率95%置信区间均有较好的重合.结论 SinoSCORE是建立在中国最新的冠脉旁路移植手术临床数据的基础上风险评分系统,预测中国病人的院内死亡与术后并发症的能力优于EuroSCORE,更加适合我国心脏外科领域临床医师应用.     

成人体外循环心脏手术的风险评价

目的探讨欧洲评分系统(EuroSCORE)对体外循环心脏手术的风险预测效果。方法应用EuroSCORE系统对我院2004年8月-2005年5月期间接受体外循环心脏手术的46名患者作术前评分,分析评分结果与术后恶性事件(AEs)ICU滞留时间的相关性。结果EuroSCORE评分系统与AEs的相关系数是0.483,P=0.001;AUC是0.817,P=0.002;EuroSCORE评分与术后ICU滞留时间的相关系数为0.512,P<0.001。结论EuroSCORE术前评价系统在总体上能够较好地评估心脏手术后发生恶性事件的风险以及术后ICU的滞留时间。     

The Society of Thoracic Surgeons: 30-day operative mortality and morbidity risk models

BACKGROUND: Although 30 day risk-adjusted operative mortality (ROM) has been used for quality assessment, it is not sufficient to describe the outcomes after coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. Risk-adjusted major morbidity may differentially impact quality of care (as complications occur more frequently than death) and enhance a surgical team's ability to assess their quality. This study identified the preoperative risk factors associated with several complications and a composite outcome (the presence of any major morbidity or 30-day operative mortality or both). METHODS: For CABG procedures, the 1997 to 1999 Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) National Adult Cardiac Surgery Database was used to develop ROM and risk-adjusted morbidity (ROMB) models. Risk factors were selected using standard STS univariate screening and multivariate logistic regression approaches. Risk model performance was assessed. Across STS participating sites, the association of observed-to-expected (O/E) ratios for ROM and ROMB was evaluated. RESULTS: The 30-day operative death and major complication rates for STS CABG procedures were 3.05% and 13.40%, respectively (503,478 CABG procedures), including stroke (1.63%), renal failure (3.53%), reoperation (5.17%), prolonged ventilation (5.96%), and sternal infection (0.63%). Risk models were developed (c-indexes for stroke [0.72], renal failure [0.76], reoperation [0.64], prolonged ventilation [0.75], sternal infection [0.66], and the composite endpoint [0.71]). Only a slight correlation was found, however, between ROMB and ROM indicators. CONCLUSIONS: Used in combination, ROMB and ROM may provide the surgical team with additional information to evaluate the quality of their care as well as valuable insights to allow them to focus on areas for improvement.     

心脏手术风险预测方法的研究进展

手术风险预测是指用国际上权威的数学模型来预测患者术后不良事件的发生率、手术死亡率等。对于高风险的心脏外科手术,心脏手术风险预测可以指导制定治疗方案,规避术后并发症发生风险,已逐渐引起心脏外科医师的关注。心脏手术风险预测方法众多,包括欧洲心脏手术风险预测法（the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation, EuroSCORE）、加拿大安大略省心脏手术风险预测法（Ontario Province Risk,OPR）、美国胸外科医师协会心脏手术风险预测法（the Society of Thoracic Surgeons score, STS score）、克利夫兰心脏手术风险预测法（Cleve,land model）、“质量测量和管理举措”心脏手术风险预测法（Quality Measurement and Management Initiative, QMMI）、美国心脏病学院／美国心脏协会心脏手术风险预测法（American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association,ACC/AHA Guidelines for Co;on-ary Art;ry Bypass Graft Surgery）以及中国冠状动脉旁路移植术风险预测法（Sino-System for Coronary Operative Risk Evaluation, SinoSCORE）等。它们都是根据某一地域内上千或上万例行心脏手术患者的数据而建立,由于数据来源存在地域性,不同预测方案的异质性,因此,当这些预测方法用来评价其他地域的病例时,往往会存在偏倚和异质性,如何避免偏差、提高预测效果是今后研究的主要目标。现对心脏手术风险预测方法的研究进展进行综述。     

Operative and early results of coronary artery bypass grafting in female patients in different body mass indexes

Background  

Female gender has been reported to be an independent risk factor for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) in European System for Cardiac Risk Evaluation. The effect of the body size on the CABG outcome is less clear. There is ongoing debate about obesity as a risk factor for adverse outcomes after cardiovascular procedures. The goal of this retrospective study is to evaluate the in hospital and early postoperative outcomes in severe obese, obese and normal-slightly obese female patients after CABG.     

Validation of European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) in North American cardiac surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To assess the performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) when applied in a North American cardiac surgical population. METHODS: The simple additive EuroSCORE model was applied to predict operative mortality (in-hospital or 30-day) in 401684 patients undergoing coronary or valve surgery in 1998 and 1999 as well as in 188913 patients undergoing surgery in 1995 in the Society of Thoracic Surgeons (STS) database. RESULTS: The proportion of isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) was greater in STS patients (84%) than in Europe (65%). STS patients were also older (mean age 65.3 versus 62.5), and had more diabetes (30 versus 17%) and prior cardiac surgery (11 versus 7%). Other comorbidity was also significantly more prevalent in STS patients. EuroSCORE predicted overall mortality was virtually identical to the observed mortality (1998/1999: predicted 3.994%, observed 3.992%; 1995: observed and predicted 4.156%). Predicted mortality also closely matched observed mortality across the risk groups. Discrimination was good to very good for the population overall and for isolated CABG in both time periods, with the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve between 0.75 and 0.78. CONCLUSION: Despite substantial demographic differences between Europe and North America, EuroSCORE performs very well in the STS database, and can be recommended as a simple, additive risk stratification system on both sides of the Atlantic.     

Social and emotional factors as predictors of poor outcomes following cardiac surgery

 Open in a separate windowOBJECTIVESExisting risk prediction models in cardiac surgery stratify individuals based on their predicted risk, including only medical and physiological factors. However, the complex nature of risk assessment and the lack of parameters representing non-medical aspects of patients’ lives point towards the need for a broader paradigm in cardiac surgery. Objectives were to evaluate the predictive value of emotional and social factors on 4 outcomes; death within 90 days, prolonged stay in intensive care (≥72 h), prolonged hospital admission (≥10 days) and readmission within 90 days following cardiac surgery, as a supplement to traditional risk assessment by European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE).METHODSThe study included adults undergoing cardiac surgery in Denmark 2014–2017 including information on register-based socio-economic factors, and, in a nested subsample, self-reported symptoms of anxiety and depression. Logistic regression analyses were conducted, adjusted for EuroSCORE, of variables reflecting social and emotional factors.RESULTSAmongst 7874 included patients, lower educational level (odds ratio 1.33; 95% confidence interval 1.17–1.51) and living alone (1.25; 1.14–1.38) were associated with prolonged hospital admission after adjustment for EuroSCORE. Lower educational level was also associated with prolonged intensive care unit stay (1.27; 1.00–1.63). Having a high income was associated with decreased odds of prolonged hospital admission (0.78; 0.70–0.87). No associations or predictive value for symptoms of anxiety or depression were found on any outcomes.CONCLUSIONSSocial disparity is predictive of poor outcomes following cardiac surgery. Symptoms of anxiety and depression are frequent especially amongst patients with a high-risk profile according to EuroSCORE.Subj collection105, 123     

Benefit to quality of life after off-pump versus on-pump coronary bypass surgery

BACKGROUND: Whether the clinical outcome of off-pump coronary artery bypass graft (OPCABG) surgery is superior to on-pump coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery is still a matter of debate. However with the considerable reduction of mortality associated with CABG surgery in recent years, more subtle outcome indicators such as quality of life (QOL) become more important. The aim of this study was to compare midterm QOL after OPCABG with that after CABG procedures and with an age- and sex-matched standard population. METHODS: Quality of life was assessed using the Short-Form 36 Health Survey Questionnaire for 504 consecutive patients after CABG (n = 438) and OPCABG (n = 66) operated on between June 1999 and November 2000 at our institution. RESULTS: Except for single-vessel disease, which was more frequent in OPCABG compared with CABG procedures (13.6% versus 6.8%; p <0.01), the preoperative variables were similar. Median EuroSCORE (European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation) was 3.2 +/- 1.3 in the CABG group compared with 3.0 +/- 0.8 in the OPCABG group (p = not significant). After a mean follow-up of 10.8 +/- 0.5 months physical role function (73.5 +/- 38.3 versus 45.3 +/- 41.6; p <0.01) and emotional role function (75.3 +/- 40.3 versus 61.0 +/- 43.9; p <0.01) were significantly better in OPCABG than in CABG patients. Compared with a standard population, OPCABG patients were significantly impaired in emotional role function and CABG patients in physical and emotional role function. CONCLUSIONS: Midterm QOL after myocardial revascularization is fairly well preserved compared with an age- and sex-matched standard population and is superior after OPCABG compared with CABG. Whether this is only due to avoidance of cardiopulmonary bypass remains to be elucidated.     

Limitations of additive EuroSCORE for measuring risk stratified mortality in combined coronary and valve surgery.

OBJECTIVE: To study the use of the additive and logistic European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) to predict mortality following adult combined coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and valve surgery. METHODS: Data were collected prospectively, from all four centres providing adult cardiac surgery in the north west of England, on 1769 consecutive patients undergoing combined CABG and valve surgery between April 1997 and March 2002. Observed in-hospital mortality was compared to predicted mortality as determined by both additive and logistic EuroSCORE. RESULTS: Observed mortality for simultaneous CABG and valve surgery was 8.7%, compared to 6.7% (additive) and 9.4% (logistic). Sixty-five percent of patients were classified as high-risk (additive EuroSCORE >5); the observed mortality was 11.5%, compared to 8.1% (additive) and 12.8% (logistic). Discrimination was similar in both systems as measured by the C statistic (additive 0.73, logistic 0.73). CONCLUSIONS: The logistic EuroSCORE is more accurate at predicting mortality in simultaneous CABG and valve surgery, as the additive EuroSCORE significantly under-predicts in this high-risk group.