中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

中国成年人高血压患病区域聚集性及危险因素的多水平模型分析

Objective To analyze the region cluster and risk factors of hypertension in the Chinese adult population and to explore the application of multilevel regression model in the risk factors of hypertension. Methods Multi-stage random sampling technique was used to choose 15 540 individuals aged 35-74 years from 10 regions in China. Two-level logistic regression models were fitted under MLwiN 2.02 software. Results The region cluster of hypertension existed and variance portion coefficient was 3.1%. After adjusting for the age and gender, overall obese people (BMI≥28 kg/m2) were 4.50(95%CI: 4.00-5.06) times, overweight people (BMI=24-27.9 kg/m2) were 2.26 (95%CI: 2.07-2.46) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal BMI (18.5-23.9 kg/m2), and those centrally obesive people (Waist circumference≥85 cm in male or 80 cm in female) were 2.62 (95%CI: 2.42-2.83) times more likely to be hypertensive as compared with those of normal WC. The age-and gender-adjusted odds ratios (Ors) of triglyceride (TG), serum total cholesterol (TC), glucose, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) , high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and drinking alcohol were 2.10 (95% CI: 1.89-2.33) , 2.08 (95% CI: 1.84-2.35) , 1.85 (95% CI: 1.60-2.14) , 1.58 (95% CI: 1.38-1.81), 1.49(95%CI: 1.32-1.69) and 1.15(95%CI: 1.05-1.27), respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of hypertension was not only affected by individual risk factors, such as obesity, drinking alcohol, abnormal glucose and serum lipids profile, but also affected by the geographic environment where people resided in. Population-and risk factors targeted strategies, proved a promising way to reduce individual risk of hypertension in the primary prevention of hypertension.     

上海城乡老年期痴呆患者死亡率和生存预示因素研究

目的研究老年期痴呆的死亡率和影响患者生存的因素。方法在上海地区基线患病率调查的基础上随机选择5个居委会和4个村委会的居民为研究对象。通过简易精神筛查量表,按文化程度划分的分界值进行初筛。分界值以下和正常人的4%进入第二阶段细查。细查项目包括详细病史记录、体格检查和神经心理学检查。6个月后对所有进入细查的对象进行上述内容的复查。根据NINCDSADRDA和NINDAAIREN标准诊断阿尔茨海默病(AD)和血管性痴呆(VaD)。结果老年期痴呆患者的死亡率是6.06/1000人年。与非痴呆组相比,在随访40个月后,痴呆组的生存概率急剧下降57%,两者相比差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。但AD和VaD间的生存率无统计学差异(P>0.05)。由痴呆、AD和VaD导致的死亡相对危险度(RR)值分别为1.63(95%CI:1.42～1.86)、1.71(95%CI:1.44～2.03)和1.45(95%CI:1.16～1.82)。增加患者死亡危险性的因素有年龄(RR=1.0685)、疾病程度(RR=1.5733)、高社会生活功能量表(ADL)值(RR=1.0368)。结论上海地区老年期痴呆的死亡率为6.06/1000人年。AD和VaD患者的生存概率没有明显差别。增加患者死亡危险性的因素有年龄、疾病程度和高ADL值。     

Risk factors for proximal humerus, forearm, and wrist fractures in elderly men and women: the Dubbo Osteoporosis Epidemiology Study

Fractures of the proximal humerus, forearm, and wrist account for approximately one third of total osteoporotic fractures in the elderly. Several risk factors for these fractures were evaluated in this prospective study of 739 men and 1,105 women aged > or =60 years in Dubbo, Australia. During follow-up (1989-1996), the respective incidences of humerus and of forearm and wrist fractures, per 10,000 person-years, were 22.6 and 33.8 for men and 54.8 and 124.6 for women. Independent predictors of humerus fracture were femoral neck bone mineral density (FNBMD) (relative risk (RR) = 2.3, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.2, 4.5) in men and FNBMD (RR = 2.4, 95% CI: 1.7, 3.5) and height loss (RR = 1.1, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.2) in women. For forearm and wrist fractures, risk factors were FNBMD (men: RR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.0, 2.3; women: RR = 1.5, 95% CI: 1.2, 1.9) and height loss (men: RR = 1.2, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.3; women: RR = 1.1, 95% CI: 1.0, 1.2). In addition, dietary calcium (men: RR = 2.0, 95% CI: 1.0, 3.6) and a history of falls (women: RR = 1.9, 95% CI: 1.4, 2.6) were also significant. These data suggest that elderly men and women largely share common risk factors for upper limb fractures and that FNBMD is the primary risk factor.     

咖啡摄入量与心血管死亡率关系的剂量-反应Meta分析

目的 探讨咖啡每日摄入量与心血管死亡率的关系。方法 计算机检索PubMed、EMbase、The Cochrane、CBM、WanFang Data和CNKI 数据库,搜集有关咖啡摄入量与心血管疾病的相关研究,检索时限均从建库至2020年4月。由两名研究者独立筛选文献、提取文献并评价纳入研究的偏倚风险后,采用Stata 14.0进行剂量反应meta分析,并对纳入的文献进行方法学质量评价。结果 共纳入26篇队列研究,包括2 046 690例受试者。剂量-反应meta分析结果显示,咖啡摄入量每天每增加1杯心血管死亡率下降约3%（RR = 0.97,95%CI:0.96～0.98）,差异具有统计学意义,且存在一种非线性剂量反应关系（P for non - linearity:＜0.01）。与不喝咖啡的人群相比,每天喝1～8杯咖啡的人群相对死亡率分别为（RR = 0.90,95%CI:0.87～0.92）、（RR = 0.84,95%CI:0.81～0.87)、（RR = 0.82,95%CI:0.79～0.84）、（RR = 0.81,95%CI:0.78～0.84）、（RR = 0.81,95%CI:0.78～0.84）、（RR = 0.81,95%CI:0.78～0.84）、（RR = 0.82,95%CI:0.79～0.85）、（RR = 0.83,95%CI:0.80～0.87）。与不喝咖啡人群相比,meta分析结果显示喝咖啡人群的相对死亡率平均为（RR = 0.83,95%CI:0.81～0.85）,可以降低17%的死亡率,差异具有统计学意义。结论 饮用咖啡可以降低心血管死亡率,每日饮用2～4杯最佳。     

南昌市社区老年人轻度认知功能障碍向阿尔茨海默病转归研究

  目的   探讨南昌市社区老年人轻度认知功能障碍(mild cognitive impairment, MCI)向阿尔茨海默病(Alzheimer disease, AD)的转归率, 并分析其影响因素。   方法   采用分层整群抽样方法选取南昌市10个社区作为研究现场, 从抽取年龄≥60岁的1 942名老年人中筛查出361名MCI患者, 采用问卷调查和实验室检测收集研究对象一般人口学特征、生活习惯信息、疾病既往史、阿尔茨海默病相关神经丝蛋白(Alzheimer-associated neuronal thread protein, AD7c-NTP)、β淀粉样蛋白42(amyloidβ-protein 42, Aβ42)、β淀粉样蛋白40(amyloidβ-protein 40, Aβ40)等信息, 对MCI患者随访三年判断是否进展为AD。   结果   361例MCI患者共有121例转归为AD, 年均转归率为9.49%, Logistic回归分析模型分析结果显示, 高龄(80~98岁)(OR=3.651, 95% CI:1.295~10.297, P < 0.001)、女性(OR=2.603, 95% CI:1.136~5.966, P < 0.001)、大量饮酒(OR=1.479, 95% CI:1.343~1.627, P < 0.001)、ADL分值升高(OR=1.790, 95% CI:1.443~2.220, P=0.031)、吸烟(OR=1.157, 95% CI:1.091~1.224, P < 0.001)是危险因素, 而Moca分值升高(OR=0.766, 95% CI:0.681~0.861, P < 0.001)则是保护因素。   结论   加强对高龄女性的MCI患者监控, 并提倡老年人拥有健康生活方式, 积极参加体育锻炼、多读书和看报, 以延缓MCI患者向AD转归。     

中国农村中老年人社会隔离的影响因素分析

目的 调查我国农村中老年人社会隔离的影响因素。方法 采用2015年中国健康与养老追踪数据,筛选出符合研究纳入标准的农村中老年人样本7 427例,根据Berkman社会网络指数判断是否存在社会隔离,采用多因素logistic逐步回归分析,对社会隔离的影响因素进行探讨。结果 中国农村中老年人社会隔离发生率为28.84%,其主要影响因素有:性别(OR = 1.55,95%CI:1.38～1.73)、年龄(OR = 1.69,95%CI:1.58～1.80)、地域(OR = 1.21,95%CI:1.13～1.29)、教育水平(OR = 0.83,95%CI:0.74～0.94)、金融机构存款金额(OR = 0.86,95%CI:0.80～0.93)、出入阶梯数(OR = 1.06,95%CI:1.01～1.13)、听力(OR = 1.25, 95%CI:1.11～1.41)、认知情况(OR = 0.91,95%CI:0.89～0.93)、生活满意度(OR = 1.07, 95%CI:1.01～1.15)、抑郁(OR = 1.17,95%CI:1.04～1.31)。结论 我国农村中老年人社会隔离发生率较高,应结合农村中老年人群体的特殊性,加强农村基础设施建设,重视中老年人身心健康管理,增加其社会网络和社会参与,以减少社会隔离的发生。     

特定转移Cox模型在阿尔茨海默病进程研究中的应用

目的 将特定转移Cox模型应用于老年人阿尔茨海默病（alzheimer's disease,AD）进程研究中,探讨AD不同阶段转归的影响因素。方法 利用太原市三个社区2010年10月~2014年10月的9次随访数据,根据AD进程中的五个状态结构,包括轻度认知损害（mild cognitive impairment,MCI）、AD、失访或删失、死于AD（DEATH）和死于其他原因,拟合特定转移Cox模型,分析AD进程中各状态向其他状态转移的影响因素。结果 按照α=0.05水准,年龄（HR=0.68,95% CI:0.52～0.90）、性别（HR=2.13,95% CI:1.32～3.43）、吸烟（HR=1.93,95% CI:1.25～2.98）、高血压（HR=2.51,95% CI:1.55～4.08）、高血脂（HR=2.03,95% CI:1.25～3.30）、糖尿病（HR=1.71,95% CI:1.10～2.67）对MCI→AD转移有统计学意义;亲属痴呆情况（HR=4.11,95% CI:1.33～12.69）对MCI→DEATH转移有统计学意义;亲属痴呆情况（HR=5.88,95% CI:1.91～18.06）、高血压（HR=7.06,95% CI:1.60～31.26）对AD→DEATH转移有统计学意义。结论 根据AD进程中各状态间转移的主要影响因素,采取疾病分状态的重点防治措施,延缓疾病进展。     

2018—2019年中国四省55岁及以上人群认知功能现状及人口经济学影响

目的了解中国四省55岁及以上人群的认知功能现状,分析人口经济学因素对认知功能的影响。方法于2018—2019年采用分层多阶段整群随机抽样的方法,在河北、浙江、陕西及湖南省共32个社区抽取5103名55岁及以上人群作为研究对象(男性2294名,女性2809名;55~64岁1875名,65~74岁2197名,75~94岁1031名),使用搭载计算机辅助系统的电子平板录入面对面询问式问卷调查获得的基线数据。依据蒙特利尔认知测验和日常生活能力量表的评估结果判定轻度认知功能障碍(mild cognitive impairment,MCI)及其亚型。采用多重线性回归模型和多因素Logistic回归模型分析人口经济因素与认知功能、MCI及其亚型的关系。结果中国四省55岁及以上人群的总体认知功能、记忆、执行、视空间、语言、注意力和定向力认知域得分分别为(21.79±6.17)、(11.20±4.18)、(8.81±3.31)、(5.33±1.76)、(4.53±1.40)、(13.32±3.98)和(5.54±0.95),MCI、遗忘单域受损型MCI(amnestic MCI single domain,aMCI-SD)、非遗忘单域受损型MCI(nonamnestic MCI single domain,naMCI-SD)、遗忘多域受损型MCI(amnestic MCI multiple domains,aMCI-MD)和非遗忘多域受损型MCI(nonamnestic MCI multiple domains,naMCI-MD)检出率分别是35.86%、4.57%、3.64%、6.68%和3.94%。75岁及以上、农村地区和家庭人均月收入低于1000元人群的总体认知功能和各认知域得分较低(P<0.05),其MCI及其亚型检出率较高。75岁及以上者发生MCI、naMCI-SD、aMCI-MD和naMCI-MD的可能性分别是55~64岁组的2.38(95%CI 1.98~2.86)、1.54(95%CI 1.01~2.34)、2.30(95%CI 1.65~3.20)和3.11(95%CI 2.07~4.69)倍。农村发生MCI、naMCI-SD和aMCI-MD的可能性分别是城市的3.02(95%CI 2.48~3.66)、4.30(95%CI 2.69~6.88)和2.62(95%CI 1.81~3.79)倍。家庭人均月收入越高,发生MCI及其亚型的可能性越低。结论2018—2019年中国四省55岁及以上人群的MCI检出率处于较高水平。75岁及以上、农村地区和家庭人均月收入较低人群的总体认知功能和不同认知域状态较差,其发生MCI及其亚型的可能性更高。     

中国中老年人群和高个成年人中心型肥胖的腰围界值点验证

目的 探讨中国中老年人群和高个成年人的适宜腰围界值点及其对糖尿病患病危险的预测价值.方法 利用2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查数据,分析≥45岁人群和身高在全人群第85百分位数(P85)以上成年人的腰围分布特征,分析不同的腰同界值点与体重指数(BMI:kg/m2)≥24的诊断一致性,采用多元logistic回归分析不同腰围水平的调查对象患糖尿病和空腹血糖受损的相对风险,并以ROC曲线最短距离确定上述人群的适宜腰围界值点.结果 中国中老年人腰围男性均值为80.8 cm,女性均值为79.4 cm;高个男性腰围均值为84.1 cm,女性为77.9 cm.中老年人腰围以男性85 cm、女性80 cm作为界值点,与BMI≥24的诊断一致性最好,预测糖尿病的ROC曲线距离最短.与腰围<85 cm组相比,85 cm～组、90 cm～组和95 cm～组的中老年男性患糖尿病[OR值分别为2.1(95%CI:1.6～2.8)、3.0(95%CI:2.3～4.0)和4.5(95%CI:3.4～5.8)]和空腹血糖受损[OR值分别为1.6(95%CI:1.2～2.2)、2.6(95%CI:1.9～3.5)和3.5(95%CI:2.6～4.6)]的相对风险明显增加.与腰围<80 cm组相比,80 cm～组、85 cm～组和90 cm～组中老年女性患糖尿病[OR值分别为1.9(95% CI:1.4-2.6)、3.2(95%CI:2.4～4.3)和4.8(95%CI:3.7～6.1)]和空腹血糖受损[OR值分别为2.5(95%CI:1.8～3.4)、3.2(95%CI:2.4～4.4)和4.2(95%CI:3.2～5.6)]的相对风险明显增高.高个成年人腰围以男性90 cm、女性85 cm作为界值点,预测糖尿病患病的ROC曲线距离最短.与腰围<85 cm组相比,95cm～组高个男性患糖尿病和空腹血糖受损的相对风险明显增高[OR值分别为3.6(95%CI:2.1～6.4)和5.5(95%CI:3.0～10.1)].与腰围<80cm组相比,85 cm～、90 cm～组高个女性患糖尿病的相对风险明显升高[OR值分别为5.0(95%CI:2.7～9.4)和8.0(95%CI:4.6～14.1)],90 cm～组患空腹血糖受损的相对风险OR=3.7(95%CI:2.0～6.9).结论 男性85 cm和女性80 cm是中老年人群的适宜腰围界值点;对于高个成年人,此腰围界值点对于空腹血糖受损有预测价值;人群中心型肥胖预防指标建议使用男性85 cm和女性80 cm作为腰围界值点.     

河南省老年人签约家庭医生现状及影响因素分析

目的 探讨河南省老年人签约家庭医生现状及影响因素,以提高河南省老年人家庭医生签约率。方法 采用的是多阶段分层整群随机抽样的方法选取河南省60岁及以上的老年人分析其家庭医生签约情况,采用χ2检验和多因素logistic回归模型来分析老年人签约家庭医生的影响因素。结果 本研究的共纳入8 441名老年人,家庭医生签约率为67.6%。多因素logistic回归结果显示,70～79岁（OR = 1.124,95%CI:1.009～1.254）、小学初中文化（OR = 1.232,95%CI:1.095～1.386）、无业（OR = 1.165,95%CI:1.019～1.333）、贫困户（OR = 3.305,95%CI:2.584～4.227）、身体与功能有问题（OR = 1.315,95%CI:1.189～1.454）、自评健康状况一般（OR = 1.364,95%CI:1.202～1.549）和良好（OR = 1.248,95%CI:1.052～1.481）、需要人照顾（OR = 1.220,95%CI:1.049～1.417）、高血压（OR = 1.194,95%CI:1.078～1.323）和糖尿病（OR = 1.264,95%CI:1.090～1.474）是签约家庭医生的积极因素;离退休（OR = 0.596,95%CI:0.501～0.711）和距离最近医疗单位≥1公里（OR = 0.610,95%CI:0.547～0.679）是签约家庭医生的阻碍因素。结论 河南省老年人家庭医生签约率较高;需要提高老年人对家庭医生签约服务的知晓度;根据影响因素制定更加个性化服务项目,以满足不同人群的各种需求。     

四川省吸毒人群艾滋病病毒和梅毒新发感染的队列研究

目的调查四川省某地区静脉吸毒人群艾滋病病毒（HIV）和梅毒血清抗体阳转情况及其危险因素.方法2002年11月在四川省西昌市以社区为基础招募HIV血清抗体阴性的静脉吸毒人群前瞻性研究队列333人,在队列每6个月随访时调查静脉吸毒人群高危吸毒行为和性行为情况,并采集血样进行HIV和梅毒抗体检测.结果队列随访2年,静脉吸毒人群队列保持率和HIV血清抗体阳转率分别为75.7%和2.53/100人年（95%CI：1.10～3.97）,在多因素Poisson回归模型分析中,民族（RR=12.42,95%CI：2.72～56.74,P=0.0012）、近3个月共用针头或注射器（RR=4.06,95%CI：1.29～12.81,P=0.0168）与HIV血清抗体阳转的关系有统计学意义.该研究队列梅毒血清抗体阳转率为4.71/100人年（95%CI：2.59～6.82）,在多因素Poisson回归模型中,女性（RR=4.42,95%CI：1.78～10 99,P=0.0014）与梅毒血清抗体阳转的关系有统计学意义.结论该地区静脉吸毒人群HIV和梅毒新发感染率高,应采取有效的干预措施以控制HIV的传播流行.