Predicting traffic volumes and estimating the effects of shocks in massive transportation systems

Public transportation systems are an essential component of major cities. The widespread use of smart cards for automated fare collection in these systems offers a unique opportunity to understand passenger behavior at a massive scale. In this study, we use network-wide data obtained from smart cards in the London transport system to predict future traffic volumes, and to estimate the effects of disruptions due to unplanned closures of stations or lines. Disruptions, or shocks, force passengers to make different decisions concerning which stations to enter or exit. We describe how these changes in passenger behavior lead to possible overcrowding and model how stations will be affected by given disruptions. This information can then be used to mitigate the effects of these shocks because transport authorities may prepare in advance alternative solutions such as additional buses near the most affected stations. We describe statistical methods that leverage the large amount of smart-card data collected under the natural state of the system, where no shocks take place, as variables that are indicative of behavior under disruptions. We find that features extracted from the natural regime data can be successfully exploited to describe different disruption regimes, and that our framework can be used as a general tool for any similar complex transportation system.Well-designed transportation systems are a key element in the economic welfare of major cities. Design and planning of these systems requires a quantitative understanding of traffic patterns and relies on the ability to predict the effects of disruptions to such patterns, both planned and unplanned (1).There is a long history of analytic and modeling approaches to the study of traffic patterns (2), for example using simulated scenarios in simple transportation systems (3), and analysis of real traffic data in complex systems, either focusing on a small samples (4) or using more aggregate data (5, 6). Here we take this approach to the next level by making use of smart-card data and incident logs to (i) predict traffic patterns and (ii) estimate the effect of unplanned disruptions on these patterns. We analyzed 70 d of smart-card transactions from the London transportation network, composed of ∼10 million unique IDs and 6 million transactions per day on average, resulting in one of the largest statistical analyses of transportation systems to date.A related literature deals with various aspects of dynamics in complex networks and complex systems in general (7–9), using a variety of data sources, from emails (10) to the circulation of bank notes (11) to online experiments on Amazon Turk (12). More recently, a number of analyses have leveraged mobile phone data as proxies for mobility (4, 13–15).However, smart-card technology allows us to obtain large samples of passenger location and movements without requiring noisy and potentially unreliable proxies such as mobile Global Positioning System traces (16), while also leveraging a more structured environment that imposes hard constraints on patterns of urban mobility (17). In particular, these constraints of the system allow us to identify a global model of passenger behavior under local line and station closures.     

重庆市主城九区3～6岁儿童忽视状况的调查分析

目的：了解重庆市主城九区3～6岁儿童的忽视状况。方法采取分层随机抽样的方法,对重庆市主城九区18个街道的1316名3～6岁儿童,运用“中国3～6岁城区儿童忽视常模”进行问卷调查。采用SPSS13．0软件对不同年龄、性别、忽视层面（身体、情感、教育、安全和医疗）的忽视率与忽视度进行统计学描述与检验。结果重庆市主城九区3～6岁儿童总忽视率为22．95％,总忽视度为39．56±7．19,不同性别、各年龄组间儿童在忽视率和忽视度上差异无统计学意义（ P＞0．05）。儿童忽视的5种类型中,忽视率为5．09％～10．64％,其中安全与身体忽视的频率较高,分别为10．64％与9．50％;忽视度为36．94～41．24,教育、身体忽视的强度较大,分别为41．24±10．43与39．81±9．32。除各年龄组儿童情感忽视度外,5种类型的忽视率与其他4类的忽视度在各年龄组及男女童间差异均无统计学意义（P＞0．05）。儿童同时受忽视种类发生率在不同性别与各年龄组间差异均无统计学意义,所有儿童均以单项（即只在5种忽视种类的任何一种）受忽视为主,发生率13．68％,构成比59．60％。结论重庆市主城九区3～6岁儿童受到忽视的频率与强度均处于一般水平,除情感忽视强度外,不同性别、各年龄的儿童受到忽视的频率和强度相同。儿童安全与身体受到忽视的频率较高,教育、情感受到忽视的强度较大。所有儿童均以单项受忽视为主。     

将志愿者机制引入城市贫困人口护理援助体系的构想

城市贫困人口的健康问题已经成为政府和社会普遍关注的重大问题。护理援助体系的建立是利用社会民间资源对城市贫困人口实施救助的有效途径。引入志愿者机制,可实现“一助一”结对服务,普及专科防治知识,保障城市贫困人口得到持久的护理援助。     

Trichomonas vaginalis antimicrobial drug resistance in 6 US cities, STD Surveillance Network, 2009-2010

Nitroimidazoles (metronidazole and tinidazole) are the only recommended drugs for treating Trichomonas vaginalis infection, and previous samples that assessed resistance of such isolates have been limited in geographic scope. We assessed the prevalence of in vitro aerobic metronidazole and tinidazole resistance among T. vaginalis isolates from multiple geographic sites in the United States. Swab specimens were obtained from women who underwent routine pelvic examinations at sexually transmitted disease clinics in 6 US cities. Cultured T. vaginalis isolates were tested for nitroimidazole resistance (aerobic minimum lethal concentration [MLC] >50 μg/mL). Of 538 T. vaginalis isolates, 23 (4.3%) exhibited low-level in vitro metronidazole resistance (minimum lethal concentrations 50-100 μg/mL). No isolates exhibited moderate- to high-level metronidazole resistance or tinidazole resistance. Results highlight the possibility that reliance on a single class of antimicrobial drugs for treating T. vaginalis infections may heighten vulnerability to emergence of resistance. Thus, novel treatment options are needed.     

社区外来工孕产妇保健模式的调查研究

目的:调查研究深圳外来工孕产妇保健管理模式、保障外来人口的母婴健康。方法:政府增加投入,引进高级人才设备,以社区为基础,社康中心为核心,建立1790名外来工孕产妇个人健康档案,实行社康与医院双向转诊模式,孕产妇保健、产前检查、高危妊娠筛查、健康教育由社康中心完成;产前检查、高危孕妇管理、住院分娩、社区医务培训等转由公立综合医院服务,产妇档案转社区,社康中心负责产妇访视、全面管理上报。结果:1790例外来工孕产妇建卡率由77.87%增加到99.10%,产检率由66.67%增长到95.59%,住院分娩率由84.95%增长到100%,产妇死亡率由132.74/10万降至18.0/10万,围产儿死亡率147.49/10万降至35.97/10万,初步达到同期866例常住孕产妇保健指标。结论:本方法适合深圳外来工孕产妇保健模式,外来孕产妇母婴健康可得到保障。     

目前我国农村劳动力城乡迁移的个人成本意识--基于一项对375位城乡迁移的农村劳动力的探索性调查

基于笔者主持的一项探索性调查，结合已有的理论研究，文章从城乡迁移主体农村劳动力的视域出发，运用归纳分析法，认为农村劳动力城乡迁移过程中付出的个人成本类型包括体力、智慧技能、健康、与家人长期分离、劳酬不符、生活水平低下、青春、金钱、情感、孩子、不安全、社会交往等十一项成本，农村劳动力在城乡迁移过程中所付出的个人成本至少具有多样性、沉重性、非法性与参照体系的多重性等四个特点。     

Childhood obesity in transition zones: an analysis using structuration theory

Childhood obesity is particularly prevalent in areas that have seen rapid economic growth, urbanisation, cultural transition, and commodification of food systems. Structuration theory may illuminate the interaction between population and individual‐level causes of obesity. We conducted in‐depth ethnographies of six overweight/obese and four non‐overweight preschool children in Hong Kong, each followed for 12–18 months. Analysis was informed by Stones’ strong structuration theory. Risk factors played out differently for different children as social structures were enacted at the level of family and preschool. The network of caregiving roles and relationships around the overweight/obese child was typically weak and disjointed, and the primary caregiver appeared confused by mixed messages about what is normal, expected and legitimate behaviour. In particular, external social structures created pressure to shift childcare routines from the logic of nurturing to the logic of consumption. Our findings suggest that threats to what Giddens called ontological security in the primary caregiver may underpin the poor parenting, family stress and weak mealtime routines that mediate the relationship between an obesogenic environment and the development of obesity in a particular child. This preliminary study offers a potentially transferable approach for studying emerging epidemics of diseases of modernity in transition societies.     

城市儿童饮食行为与其营养状况的多重对应分析

目的深入了解城市儿童饮食行为与他们营养状况之间的关系,为改善儿童的饮食行为和促进健康提出科学的应对策略与措施。方法选择福州和莆田2个城市4所小学的1~6年级小学生做为研究对象,采用自制的调查表进行调查,并使用多重对应分析对结果进行分析。结果在儿童的各种不良饮食行为中,最常见的分别为挑食偏食(19.2%)、常喝含糖饮料(15.5%)和常吃甜食(11.7%)。有21.3%的儿童营养不良,23.3%的儿童超重或肥胖,只有55.4%的儿童营养状况正常。儿童消瘦与挑食偏食严重和不吃早餐有关;儿童超重或肥胖与不挑食偏食和有时吃西式快餐有关;儿童营养状况正常与常吃早餐、不挑食偏食,以及不吃腌制食品和西式快餐有关。结论福建省2城市4所小学学生的不良饮食行为及营养状况欠佳的发生率均较高,要重点改善早餐行为、挑食偏食行为和进食西式快餐行为,促进儿童的健康。     

Healthy research in cities: a case study on the translation of health research into action in The Netherlands

Health research plays a prominent role in Healthy City projectsin urban neighbourhoods. This article explores the problemsthat arise when research is used as a tool to promote healthaction. A special focus is on strategies to assess health needs.Additionally, a theoretical framework of ‘Cultures ofHealth’ is introduced. In a case study, a health promotionproject in an urban neighbourhood is examined in which researchplays a major role. The research, designed as action research,originates positive outcomes and demonstrates an adequate rolefor research on healthy cities.     

张謇的城市与区域规划思想及其现实意义

张謇在南通及其地区的规划与建设卓有成效。区域是城市发展的基础。张謇城市建设的思想实基于他对区域的关心和一系列的行动。张謇较之他同时代人甚至后来人高明之处，在于科技与人文并重，汇理想与笃行于一身。张謇的创新与开拓，不仅为南通建设之所需，且对于处在城市化加速时期的当今中国或许能有新的启示与鼓舞。