时间序列模型应用于新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情预测效果比较研究

目的比较常见时间序列模型应用于新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情预测的效果。方法收集2020年4月1日至9月30日美国、印度和巴西3个国家COVID-19每日确诊病例数,分别建立差分自回归移动平均(ARIMA)模型和循环神经网络(RNN)模型,使用平均绝对百分比误差(MAPE)和均方根误差(RMSE)等指标,比较不同模型预测9月21-30日确诊病例的表现。结果应用ARIMA模型预测美国、印度和巴西疫情的MAPE分别为13.18%、9.18%和17.30%,RMSE分别为6542.32、8069.50和3954.59;应用RNN模型预测美国、印度和巴西疫情的MAPE分别为15.27%、7.23%和26.02%,RMSE分别为6877.71、6457.07和5950.88。结论ARIMA和RNN模型的COVID-19预测效果存在地区差异,ARIMA模型的预测效果在美国和巴西较优,而RNN模型的预测效果在印度较优。     

c-Ha-ras、c-erbB_2癌基因产物和p53、nm23抑癌基因产物对葡萄胎恶变的预测价值

目的：探讨ｃ－Ｈａ－ｒａｓ、ｃ－ｅｒｂＢ２癌基因产物和ｐ５３、ｎｍ２３抑癌基因产物表达异常和葡萄胎恶变的关系及在预测葡萄胎恶变的价值。方法：采用针对４种基因产物的单克隆抗体，ＳＰ法免疫组织化学染色，回顾分析了≥２ａ随访证实发生恶变的葡萄胎５０例（恶变组）和未发生恶变的葡萄胎３２例（非恶变组）中４种基因产物的表达情况。结果：恶变组中ｃ－Ｈａ－ｒａｓ和ｎｍ２３基因产物的表达程度显著低于非恶变组（Ｐ＜０．０１，Ｐ＜０．００１）；恶变组中ｃ－ｅｒｂＢ２及ｐ５３基因产物的表达程度显著高于非恶变组（Ｐ＜０．０１，Ｐ＜０．０５）。进一步以４种基因产物的表达程度为变量，进行ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ回归判别分析，表明４种基因产物联合应用对葡萄胎恶变的预测敏感性率为８６％，特异性率为７８．１％，而ｌｏｇｉｓｔｉｃ逐步回归判别分析显示，ｃ－ｅｒｂＢ２和ｎｍ２３基因产物联合应用时，对葡萄胎恶变的预测敏感性率为８４％，特异性率为７５％。结论：ｃ－Ｈａ－ｒａｓ、ｃ－ｅｒｂＢ２癌基因产物及ｐ５３、ｎｍ２３抑癌基因产物表达异常与葡萄胎恶变密切相关，用以预测葡萄胎恶变具有较高的价值     

Validation of 5 prediction models for acute kidney injury and its outcome after cardiac surgery procedures in Chinese patients

ObjectiveTo assess the clinical usefulness and value of the 5 models for the prediction of acute kidney injury (AKI), severe AKI which renal replacement treatment was needed (RRT-AKI) and death after cardiac surgery procedures in Chinese patients. Methods One thousand and sixty - seven patients who underwent cardiac surgery procedures in the department of cardiac surgery in the Zhongshan Hospital, Fudan University between May 2010 and January 2011 were involved in this research. The predicting value for AKI (AKICS), RRT-AKI (Cleveland, SRI and Mehta score) and death (EURO score) after cardiac surgery procedures was evaluated by Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test for the calibration and area under receiver operation characteristic curve (AUROC) for the discrimination. ResultsThe incidence of AKI was 20.34%(217/1067), and 63.13% of their renal function recovered completely. The incidence of RRT-AKI was 3.56%(38/1067) and the mortality of AKI and RRT - AKI was 9.68%(21/217) and 44.73%(17/38) respectively. The total mortality was 3.28%（35/1067）. The discrimination and calibration for the prediction of AKI of AKICS were low. For the prediction of RRT-AKI, the discrimination and calibration of Cleveland score were high enough, but the predicated value was lower than the real value (1.70% vs 3.86%). The discrimination of Mehta score and the calibration of SRI were low. The discrimination and calibration for the prediction of death of EURO score was low. ConclusionAccording to the 2012 KDIGO AKI definition, none of the 5 models above is good at predicting AKI after cardiac surgery procedures. Cleveland score has been validated to have a proper impact on predicting RRT-AKI after cardiac surgery procedures, but the predicting value is still in doubt. EURO score has been validated to have an inaccurate predicting value for death after cardiac surgery procedures.     

Aqueous solubility: Simple predictive methods (in silico,in vitro and bio-relevant approaches)

Aqueous solubility is a key physicochemical attribute required for the characterisation of an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) during drug discovery and beyond. Furthermore, aqueous solubility is highly important for formulation selection and subsequent development processes. This review provides a summary of simple predictive methods used to assess aqueous solubility as well as an assessment of the more complex in silico methodologies and a review of the recent solubility challenge. In addition, a summary of experimental methods to determine solubility is included, with a discussion of some potential pitfalls.     

中国人感染H7N9禽流感危险区域预警识别的研究

目的 建立人感染H7N9禽流感发病危险预警模型, 识别禽流感暴发高危险区域并提出预警。方法 收集2013年2月至2014年6月中国地市级人感染H7N9禽流感病例数据及同期地理、气象数据, 通过空间自回归(SAR)模型和广义相加模型(GAM)拟合并量化地理和气象因素对发病的影响, 综合两模型的预测结果建立发病危险预警地图。结果 2014年2月中国人感染H7N9禽流感的实际发病地区全部位于研究构建的发病危险预测区域内;模型预测了疾病的空间移动趋势, 对2014年4、5月北方地区的新发疫情有准确的预警。结论 建立的模型短期预测准确度和精确度较好, 可应用于疫情监测和预警领域, 有助于早期区域预防疫情的流行及暴发。     

红外光谱分析技术评价MRI对胆囊结石成分预判的研究

利用傅里叶变换红外光谱(FT-IR)检测胆囊结石成分,评价MRI对胆囊结石成分预判的准确性。方法 选取2020 年12月～2021年8月我院100例预行胆囊切除的胆石病患者,另取同期50例无结石患者的MRI做阴性对照。术前行MRI检查,术后取胆囊结石进行FT-IR分析,分析FT-IR图及与MRI的相关性。配对样本计数资料组间比较使用McNemar检验,使用Kappa检验、ROC曲线下面积AUC、灵敏度、特异度和准确度等指标对MRI预判结石成分的准确性进行评估。结果 MRI各序列信号表现与FT-IR对比：McNemar=4.00、P=0.135,Kappa=0.962、P.＜0.05,AUC (95% CI)为0.980(0.943～0.996),准确度为97.33%,灵敏度为96.00%,特异度为100.00%,约登指数为0.96;MRI各序列信号值与FT-IR对比：McNemar=0.20,P=0.655,Kappa=0.953、P＜0.05,AUC (95% CI)为0.975(0.935～0.994),准确度为96.67%,灵敏度为95.00%,特异度为100.00%,约登指数为0.95。结论 MRI可以较准确地预判胆囊结石成分,可为临床诊疗胆石病提供新思路,为胆石病的预防及流行病学研究提供理论基础。     

老年患者肺癌根治术后谵妄的危险因素及列线图预测模型的建立

目的 探讨老年患者肺癌根治术后谵妄（POD）的危险因素,并在此基础上构建与验证预测POD发生风险的列线图模型。
方法 选择择期全麻下行肺癌根治术老年患者580例,男349例,女231例,年龄≥65岁,ASA Ⅰ—Ⅲ级。根据术后3 d内是否发生POD将患者分为两组：POD组与非POD组。通过Lasso回归筛选与POD发生相关的临床变量,并采用多因素Logistic回归分析确定独立危险因素,以此建立预测POD发生风险的列线图模型。分别通过C-index、校准曲线和受试者工作特征（ROC）曲线验证模型的区分度、一致性和准确性,并采用决策曲线分析（DCA）确定模型的临床实用性。
结果 有46例（7.93％）患者发生POD。多因素Logistic回归分析显示,年龄≥75岁、术前简易精神状态量表（MMSE）评分≤25分、术前预后营养指数（PNI）＜45、查尔森合并症指数（CCI）评分≥2分、鳞癌、术中低血压和手术时间≥3 h为POD的独立危险因素。以此构建的列线图模型经内部验证,该模型的C-index为0.864（95％CI 0.811～0.917）;校准曲线显示,该模型预测POD发生风险与实际POD发生风险平均绝对误差为0.038;ROC曲线显示,该模型预测POD发生风险的曲线下面积为0.866（95％CI 0.835～0.892）,敏感性86.96％,特异性73.78％;DCA分析显示该模型具有较好的临床实用性。
结论 年龄≥75岁、术前MMSE评分≤25分、PNI＜45、CCI评分≥2分、鳞癌、术中低血压和手术时间≥3 h是肺癌根治术老年患者POD的独立危险因素,依此构建的列线图模型对POD发生风险具有良好的预测效能。     

聚乙二醇化干扰素治疗慢性丙型肝炎疗效预测及影响因素

聚乙二醇化干扰素联合利巴韦林(RBv)是目前公认的治疗慢性丙型肝炎的标准方案.综合分析患者特点及对治疗的反应,有助于临床医生进行疗效预测并优化治疗方案.此文主要从患者治疗前的基线因素、治疗中的血清病毒动力学变化及联合的RBV剂量等方面作以综述.     

The AGH score is a predictor of disease-free survival and targeted therapy efficacy after liver transplantation in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma

Background: Liver transplantation(LT) is the “cure” therapy for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC). However, some patients encounter HCC recurrence after LT. Unfortunately, there is no effective methods to identify the LT patients who have high risk of HCC recurrence and would benefit from adjuvant targeted therapy. The present study aimed to establish a scoring system to predict HCC recurrence of HCC patients after LT among the Chinese population, and to evaluate whether these patients...