This paper examines the propagation of COVID-19 across the Spanish provinces and assesses the effectiveness of the Spanish lockdown of the population implemented on March 14, 2020 in order to battle this pandemic. To achieve these objectives, a standard spatial econometric model used in economics is adapted to resemble the popular reproduction models employed in the epidemiological literature. In addition, we introduce a counterfactual exercise that allows us to examine the Gross domestic product (GDP) gains of bringing forward the date of the Spanish Lockdown. We find that the number of COVID-19 cases would have been reduced by 70.4% in the absence of spatial propagation between the Spanish provinces. We also determine that the lockdown prevented the propagation of the virus within and between provinces. As such, the Spanish lockdown reduced the number of potential COVID-19 cases by 82.8%. However, the number of coronavirus cases would have been reduced by an additional 11.6% if the lockdown had been brought forward to March 7, 2020. Finally, an earlier lockdown would have saved approximately 26,900,000,000 euros. 相似文献
Objective/Background: To assess frequency domain heart rate variability (HRV) parameters at rest and in response to postural autonomic provocations in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) and investigate the autonomic influences on the heart of different physical activities.
Design: Cross-sectional study.
Methods: Ten subjects with complete cervical SCI and fourteen subjects with complete low thoracic SCI were prospectively recruited from the community and further divided in sedentary and physically active groups, the latter defined as regular weekly 4 hour physical activity for the preceding 3 months. Sixteen healthy individuals matched for sex and age were recruited to participate in the control group. The Low Frequency (LF), High Frequency (HF) powers and the LF/HF ratio of HRV were measured from continuous electrocardiogram (ECG) recordings at rest and after sitting using a fast Fourier transformation.
Outcome measures: The LF,HF, and the LF/HF ratio at rest and after sitting.
Results: A significant decrease in all HRV parameters in patients with SCI was found compared to controls. The change in HF, LF and LF/HF following sitting maneuver was significantly greater in controls as compared with the SCI group and greater in subjects with paraplegia as compared to subjects with tetraplegia. Better HRV values and enhanced vagal activity appears to be related to the type of physical activity in active subjects with paraplegia.
Conclusion: In this cohort of subjects spectral parameters of HRV were associated with the level of the injury. Passive standing was associated with higher HRV values in subjects with paraplegia. 相似文献
Recently, we developed a high-frame-rate echocardiographic imaging system capable of acquiring images at rates up to 2500 per second. High imaging rates were used to quantify longitudinal strain parameters in patients with echocardiographically normal function. These data can serve as a baseline for comparing strain parameters in disease states. The derived timing data also reveal the propagation of mechanical events in the left ventricle throughout the cardiac cycle. High-frame-rate echocardiographic images were acquired from 17 patients in the apical four-chamber view using Duke University's phased array ultrasound system, T5. B-Mode images were acquired at 500–1000 images per second by employing 16:1 or 32:1 parallel processing in receive, a scan depth ≤14 cm and an 80° field of view with a 3.5-MegaHertZ (MHz), 96-element linear array. The images were analyzed using a speckle tracking algorithm tailored for high-frame-rate echocardiographic images developed at Aalborg and Duke University. Four specific mechanical events were defined using strain curves from six regions along the myocardial contour of the left ventricle. The strain curves measure the local deformation events of the myocardium and are independent of the overall cardiac motion. We observed statistically significant differences in the temporal sequence among different myocardial segments for the first mechanical event described, myocardial tissue shortening onset (p < 0.01). We found that the spatial origin of tissue shortening was located near the middle of the interventricular septum in patients with echocardiographically normal function. The quantitative parameters defined here, based on high-speed strain measurements in patients with echocardiographically normal function, can serve as a means of assessing degree of contractile abnormality in the myocardium and enable the identification of contraction propagation. The relative timing pattern among specific events with respect to the Q wave may become an important new metric in assessing cardiac function and may, in turn, improve diagnosis and prognosis. 相似文献
BackgroundAlthough measles is endemic throughout the World Health Organization European Region, few studies have analysed socioeconomic inequalities and spatiotemporal variations in the disease’s incidence.AimTo study the association between socioeconomic deprivation and measles incidence in Germany, while considering relevant demographic, spatial and temporal factors.MethodsWe conducted a longitudinal small-area analysis using nationally representative linked data in 401 districts (2001–2017). We used spatiotemporal Bayesian regression models to assess the potential effect of area deprivation on measles incidence, adjusted for demographic and geographical factors, as well as spatial and temporal effects. We estimated risk ratios (RR) for deprivation quintiles (Q1–Q5), and district-specific adjusted relative risks (ARR) to assess the area-level risk profile of measles in Germany.ResultsThe risk of measles incidence in areas with lowest deprivation quintile (Q1) was 1.58 times higher (95% credible interval (CrI): 1.32–2.00) than in those with highest deprivation (Q5). Areas with medium-low (Q2), medium (Q3) and medium-high deprivation (Q4) had higher adjusted risks of measles relative to areas with highest deprivation (Q5) (RR: 1.23, 95%CrI: 0.99–1.51; 1.05, 95%CrI: 0.87–1.26 and 1.23, 95%CrI: 1.05–1.43, respectively). We identified 54 districts at medium-high risk for measles (ARR > 2) in Germany, of which 22 were at high risk (ARR > 3).ConclusionSocioeconomic deprivation in Germany, one of Europe’s most populated countries, is inversely associated with measles incidence. This association persists after demographic and spatiotemporal factors are considered. The social, spatial and temporal patterns of elevated risk require targeted public health action and policy to address the complexity underlying measles epidemiology. 相似文献
Background:No other disease has killed more than ischemic heart disease (IHD) for the past few years globally. Despite the advances in cardiology, the response time for starting treatment still leads patients to death because of the lack of healthcare coverage and access to referral centers.Objectives:To analyze the spatial disparities related to IHD mortality in the Parana state, Brazil.Methods:An ecological study using secondary data from Brazilian Health Informatics Department between 2013–2017 was performed to verify the IHD mortality. An spatial analysis was performed using the Global Moran and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) to verify the spatial dependency of IHD mortality. Lastly, multivariate spatial regression models were also developed using Ordinary Least Squares and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) to identify socioeconomic indicators (aging, income, and illiteracy rates), exam coverage (catheterization, angioplasty, and revascularization rates), and access to health (access index to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers) significantly correlated with IHD mortality. The chosen model was based on p < 0.05, highest adjusted R2 and lowest Akaike Information Criterion.Results:A total of 22,920 individuals died from IHD between 2013–2017. The spatial analysis confirmed a positive spatial autocorrelation global between IDH mortality rates (Moran’s I: 0.633, p < 0.01). The LISA analysis identified six high-high pattern clusters composed by 66 municipalities (16.5%). GWR presented the best model (Adjusted R2: 0.72) showing that accessibility to cardiologists and chemical reperfusion centers, and revascularization and angioplasty rates differentially affect the IHD mortality rates geographically. Aging and illiteracy rate presented positive correlation with IHD mortality rate, while income ratio presented negative correlation (p < 0.05).Conclusion:Regions of vulnerability were unveiled by the spatial analysis where sociodemographic, exam coverage and accessibility to health variables impacted differently the IHD mortality rates in Paraná state, Brazil.Highlights
The increase in ischemic heart disease mortality rates is related to geographical disparities.
The IHD mortality is differentially associated to socioeconomic factors, exam coverage, and access to health.
Higher accessibility to chemical reperfusion centers did not necessarily improve patient outcomes in some regions of the state.
Clusters of high mortality rate are placed in regions with low amount of cardiologists, income and schooling.