International validation and update of the Amsterdam model for prediction of survival after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer

BackgroundThe objective of this study was to validate and update the Amsterdam prediction model including tumor grade, lymph node ratio, margin status and adjuvant therapy, for prediction of overall survival (OS) after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer.MethodsWe included consecutive patients who underwent pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer between 2000 and 2017 at 11 tertiary centers in 8 countries (USA, UK, Germany, Italy, Sweden, the Netherlands, Korea, Australia). Model performance for prediction of OS was evaluated by calibration statistics and Uno's C-statistic for discrimination. Validation followed the TRIPOD statement.ResultsOverall, 3081 patients (53% male, median age 66 years) were included with a median OS of 24 months, of whom 38% had N2 disease and 77% received adjuvant chemotherapy. Predictions of 3-year OS were fairly similar to observed OS with a calibration slope of 0.72. Statistical updating of the model resulted in an increase of the C-statistic from 0.63 to 0.65 (95% CI 0.64–0.65), ranging from 0.62 to 0.67 across different countries. The area under the curve for the prediction of 3-year OS was 0.71 after updating. Median OS was 36, 25 and 15 months for the low, intermediate and high risk group, respectively (P < 0.001).ConclusionsThis large international study validated and updated the Amsterdam model for survival prediction after pancreatoduodenectomy for pancreatic cancer. The model incorporates readily available variables with a fairly accurate model performance and robustness across different countries, while novel markers may be added in the future. The risk groups and web-based calculator www.pancreascalculator.com may facilitate use in daily practice and future trials.     

Antimicrobial activity of selected synbiotics targeted for the elderly against pathogenic Escherichia coli strains

The aim of the present study was to evaluate the antimicrobial activity of two synbiotic combinations, Lactobacillus fermentum with short-chain fructooligosaccharides (FOS-LF) and Bifidobacterium longum with isomaltooligosaccharides (IMO-BL), against enterohaemorrhagic Escherichia coli O157:H7 and enteropathogenic E. coli O86. Antimicrobial activity was determined (1) by co-culturing the synbiotics and pathogens in batch cultures, and (2) with the three-stage continuous culture system (gut model), inoculated with faecal slurry from an elderly donor. In the co-culture experiments, IMO-BL was significantly inhibitory to both E. coli strains, while FOS-LF was slightly inhibitory or not inhibitory. Factors other than acid production appeared to play a role in the inhibition. In the gut models, both synbiotics effectively inhibited E. coli O157 in the first vessel, but not in vessels 2 and 3. E. coli O86 was not significantly inhibited.     

抑郁症大鼠模型海马区及前额叶组织BDNF因子、Trkb蛋白表达的实验研究

目的:观察抑郁症大鼠模型脑组织不同部位神经营养因子水平的变化及抗抑郁药物使用后改变。方法:将成年SD大鼠30只分为正常对照组、模型对照组、药物干预组,每组10只,雌雄对半;正常组正常养殖,模型组采用慢性不可预知应激结合孤养方式制备抑郁模型大鼠4周。药物干预组采用模型组造模过程4周后给予药物(氟西汀)给入,自实验开始之后每周观察大鼠体重、糖水消耗、旷场实验指标的变化,最后采用荧光定量PCR法观察大鼠脑部BDNF因子及Trkb的表达。结果:与正常对照组大鼠相比,模型组大鼠体重增加缓慢、糖水消耗减少、旷场试验各项指标较正常组间差异具有统计学意义;荧光定量PCR结果显示:模型组较对照组各脑区BDNF及Trkb受体表达减少,药物干预组脑区BDNF及Trkb受体表达显著高于模型对照组。结论:脑部BDNF因子及Trkb的表达在抑郁症发生与治疗中有所改变。     

Risk-based cost-benefit analysis of alternative vaccines against COVID-19 in Brazil: Coronavac vs. Astrazeneca vs. Pfizer

We propose a probabilistic model to quantify the cost-benefit of mass Vaccination Scenarios (VSs) against COVID-19. Through this approach, we conduct a six-month simulation, from August 31st, 2021 to March 3rd, 2022, of nine VSs, i.e., the three primary vaccine brands in Brazil (CoronaVac, AstraZeneca and Pfizer), each with three different vaccination rates (2nd doses per week). Since each vaccine has different individual-level effectiveness, we measure the population-level benefit as the probability of reaching herd immunity (HI). We quantify and categorize the cost-benefit of VSs through risk graphs that show: (i) monetary cost vs. probability of reaching HI; and (ii) number of new deaths vs. probability of reaching HI. Results show that AstraZeneca has the best cost-benefit when prioritizing acquisition costs, while Pfizer is the most cost-beneficial when prioritizing the number of deaths. This work provides helpful information that can aid public health authorities in Brazil to better plan VSs. Furthermore, our approach is not restricted to Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic, or the mentioned vaccine brands. Indeed, the method is flexible so that this study can be a valuable reference for future cost-benefit analyses in other countries and pandemics, especially in the early stages of vaccination, when data is scarce and uncertainty is high.     

Medical waste management and environmental assessment in the Rio University Hospital,Western Greece

At this study a multi-criteria model was developed to examine the available procedures, techniques and methods of handling infectious waste in the large healthcare unit of University Regional General Hospital of Patras, Western Greece. Particularly, this study examined the: a) current legislation and Directives issued for medical waste management at Greece and among the other EU-members, b) contribution of healthcare wastes (HCW) generation rate on social and economic parameters in selected European countries, c) available procedures, techniques, and methods upon the disposal of infectious wastes at the healthcare studied, and, d) propositions for integrated management of such hazardous wastes. Specifically, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) methodology was applied under pair wise comparison matrices in two stages: 1) the scale factors and the indicators, and 2) the criteria and their sub–criteria. The assessment of these pair wise matrices included the indicators and the sub–criteria. Subsequently, two pair wise comparison matrices, upon a) the “Fulfillment of environmental objectives” indicator and b) the “Energy consumption” sub criterion, were denoted. The AHP methodology yielded good results; however there is still space of improving the environmental performance. The normalized relative weights obtained for the criteria and sub criteria motivated specific actions that have to be handled. Particularly, the results indicated a very good value in environmental management criteria due the values obtained for the commitment towards the environmental policy standards and the waste management procedures. However, further improvements on staff awareness (such as development programs to enhance sensitivity) and more green purchasing suppliers, should be further addressed.     

杨宇飞教授舌癌的中医康复治疗与验案两则＊

舌癌患者手术及放化疗后会出现构音障碍、吞咽困难、口腔黏膜炎、口干、营养不良等并发症，使患者生存质量下降，甚至导致肿瘤的复发转移，影响生存期，单一方法往往顾此失彼。依托于中国中医科学院西苑医院肿瘤康复基地，杨宇飞教授在国内外调研考察基础上，结合中国国情，构建了一种“门诊多学科肿瘤康复模式”，在舌癌康复方面，以患者为中心，以中医肿瘤内科为主导，多学科共同参与，结合康复科、口腔科、营养科、药剂科等各科优势，形成全程个体化规范序贯康复方案，对患者及早进行康复，在放疗前进行预防性干预尤其重要，使患者能够快速缓解手术和放疗的不良反应，患者获益明显。现取两个典型案例总结其舌癌多学科康复的经验，以期为舌癌的康复提供借鉴。     

行为-结构化-关系干预模式对短期住院孤独症谱系障碍儿童的疗效分析

目的 探讨以行为-结构化-关系(BSR)干预模式对短期住院孤独症谱系障碍(ASD)儿童的干预疗效,为改善ASD儿童的预后提供参考依据。方法 选取2015年12月－2016年12月确诊为ASD的2~6岁儿童141例,随机分为治疗组和对照组。治疗组ASD儿童均接受BSR模式的短期课程训练,训练课程包括个别辅导、游戏课、运动课、音乐课等,每天训练时间6 h,持续1个月;对照组ASD儿童处于干预等待,接受随访观察和评估。所有ASD儿童干预前、后均接受儿童心理教育评估(第三版)(PEP-3)来进行各方面能力变化的评估。结果 治疗组、对照组干预前各副测验的原积分差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。两组ASD儿童干预后认知、语言理解、模仿、情感表达、社会互动、行为特征-非语言、适应行为的原积分比较,差异均有统计学意义(t=2.41、2.02、4.14、3.69、4.42、2.69、2.96,P<0.05);但小肌肉、大肌肉、自理的原积分比较,差异无统计学意义(t=-1.13、-1.05、-0.84,P>0.05)。结论 BSR干预模式能够有效改善短期住院ASD儿童的预后,可推广用于儿童ASD的治疗。