健康期望寿命测算方法与应用进展

随着社会经济发展和人群健康状况不断改善,居民期望寿命不断延长,长寿状态下的生命质量越来越受到重视,人们关注的焦点是在期望寿命不断延长的情况下如何活得更加健康。期望寿命是居民健康评价的常用指标,但只能从数量上反映生存时间长短,无法反映存活时的健康状况和生命质量。健康期望寿命指标包含死亡、疾病和伤残等一系列非健康状态信息,能综合反映生命的长度和质量,更全面地评价人群健康状况。本文总结了国内外对健康期望寿命指标和测算方法的研究,阐述了健康期望寿命的概念提出、指标发展、计算方法和国内外研究应用进展,对健康期望寿命的研究方法进行了总结,为开展进一步研究提供学术参考。     

人群健康综合测量——健康期望寿命的发展及应用

健康期望寿命是人群健康综合测量的代表性指标,本文介绍了其产生与发展的历程,总结了健康状态期望寿命与健康调整期望寿命两大类指标的特点：前者为两分或多分型指标,计算简便易于解释和理解;后者为权重调整型指标,在指标设计层面更为科学全面,但测算过程复杂。文章介绍了健康调整期望寿命、健康寿命年等指标在世界卫生组织、欧盟等国际组织及地区的应用现状,分析了各自的优劣及前景,并建议我国未来应重视健康期望寿命的研究和应用。     

健康期望寿命的应用与发展

目的准确评估人群健康状况,比较分析适合中国的健康期望寿命指标体系。方法采用文献综述的方法,全面总结了健康期望寿命的涵义、分类和计算方法;介绍了相关理论假说;重点概括了其产生、发展及应用的历程;综合分析了健康期望寿命的影响因素。结果健康期望寿命作为先进的人群健康综合测量指标,在全球范围内受到越来越多的重视。国际上,健康期望寿命已经被政府机构、私人部门用于制定健康促进项目、卫生保健计划养老保障核算的政策依据。尤其是欧洲健康期望寿命指标监测运用日趋成熟,适宜推广。结论建议全国统一人群健康综合测量工具,明确健康期望寿命指标类别,推荐采取类似欧盟最小健康模块监测指标,并纳入中国居民健康状况核心指标体系。     

南京市>60岁居民不同类型健康期望寿命分析

目的测算南京市60岁居民不同类型健康期望寿命指标,综合评价老年人群健康状况。方法基于寿命表和沙利文法(Sullivan Method)测算各类健康状态老人期望寿命指标和基于SF-6D健康效用值测算质量调整期望寿命(QALE)。结果 2015年南京市60岁居民期望寿命为24.44岁(男性22.89岁,女性26.08岁)。横断面调查60岁有1 291人,无慢性病期望寿命为8.76岁(男性8.37岁,女性9.24岁),无活动受限期望寿命为14.90岁(男性14.69岁,女性14.89岁),自评健康期望寿命为17.73岁(男性16.60岁,女性19.01岁),质量调整期望寿命为18.07岁(男性17.03岁,女性19.17岁)。结论南京市60岁居民总体健康状况女性优于男性,但健康状况的差距小于双方期望寿命体现的差异;女性慢性病患病及活动受限程度高于男性。用健康期望寿命评价老年人健康状况更为合理。     

健康期望寿命指标分类及评价比较

健康期望寿命是人群健康综合测量的代表性指标,在国际上已得到广泛研究和应用。重点介绍了健康期望寿命指标的分类,对健康状态期望(health state expectancy,HSE)和健康调整期望寿命(health-adjusted life ex-pectancy,HALE)两类指标群进行了评价与比较,提出适宜研究资料的缺乏与计算方法的分歧是当前国内健康期望寿命研究应着力解决的两大重要问题。     

基于健康期望寿命评价人类发展水平的可行性研究

目的探索评价人类发展水平的新指标。方法采用Pearson相关分析、主成分分析和变异度分析,探讨健康期望寿命评价人类发展水平的可行性。结果人类发展指数与健康期望寿命的相关系数最高(r=0.934);健康期望寿命在人类发展指数的权重高于其涵盖的四个指标;健康期望寿命的变异系数0.173比期望寿命的变异系数0.153高13.07%。结论健康期望寿命取代期望寿命参与描述人类发展指数能更准确、全面的反映人类发展水平。     

健康期望寿命的指标定义和测算方法研究进展

目的 健康期望寿命（HLE）将预期寿命与健康水平相结合,是各国衡量国民寿命长度和质量的重要综合性指标。本研究采用概括性综述梳理全球HLE的指标定义和测算方法以及实证研究,以期为决策者遴选和发展适合中国国情的HLE指标和算法提供借鉴和参考。方法 检索7个中英文文献数据库,检索时限为建库至2022年5月7日;同时,手动检索综述性文献及其参考文献。纳入HLE指标及测算方法相关的系统评价和实证研究,提取并汇总研究地区、研究类型、研究人群、HLE指标、测算方法、测算数据源和近5年实证研究等内容,梳理HLE的指标定义演变、不同指标适用范围、定义健康的量表,以及HLE的测算方法,总结不同指标测算方法的实证研究结果。研究遵循概括性综述规范实施步骤,文章撰写参考PRSIMA-ScR声明。结果 共纳入文献84篇,其中13篇综述评价,17篇为HLE指标定义的原始研究,10篇为指标测算方法的原始研究,44篇为近5年开展的实证研究。HLE的相关指标多达20种,定义健康的量表各有侧重;不同学者提出10种指标测算方法,根据指标的健康定义、是否设置权重和数据类型而不同。近5年最常用的指标是无残疾期望寿命和不区分具体类型的HLE。对于HLE的测算,横断面数据多使用沙利文法、纵向数据多采用多状态寿命表法。结论 HLE的定义和测算方法多样,尚无公认的最优方法。总结全球范围内的HLE概念、健康评价技术和测算方法以及实证研究,可为我国HLE指标测算的本土化提供借鉴和参考。     

上海市成年人健康期望寿命测算研究

目的 评价上海市居民健康状况,测算健康期望寿命,分析影响居民健康相关因素,为卫生决策提供有力的信息和依据。方法 采用多阶段分层随机抽样方法随机抽取上海市≥18岁户籍居民作为调查对象,采用WHO在世界健康调查中使用的自评健康调查问卷,进行居民自评健康状况调查。应用CHOHT模型校正自评健康调查数据,获得人群自报伤残测度,结合上海市居民出生、死亡和人口资料编制人口寿命表计算期望寿命,采用Sullivan法测算居民健康期望寿命。结果 2017年上海市≥18岁成年人自评伤残测度为0.25,女性（0.28）高于男性（0.23）;≥18岁成年人期望寿命为65.76岁,女性（68.22岁）高于男性（63.39岁）;≥18岁成年人健康期望寿命为47.99岁,男性（49.05岁）高于女性（47.14岁）;健康期望寿命在期望寿命中的比例随年龄增加逐渐降低,18岁组居民健康期望寿命占期望寿命比例为72.97%,至85岁组仅为39.00%。结论 上海市成年人男性健康水平高于女性,随着年龄增加健康期望寿命损失占期望寿命的比例越来越高。应重视提高女性、老龄等人群的生存质量,提升对影响居民寿命质量的慢性病等重大疾病防控,加强重点人群的长期照护及健康支持体系,提升居民健康水平和生活质量。     

2010年成都市居民期望寿命及减寿情况分析

人均期望寿命不仅反映了一个国家、一个地区的人群健康水平,同时也反映了其经济、教育、文化、环境的发展水平[1-2].因此,我国提出在国民经济和社会发展第十二个五年规划(以下简称"十二五"规划)建设周期末,提高全国人均期望寿命1岁;成都市市政府由此提出,在"十二五"规划地方建设周期末,提高成都市人均期望寿命达到78.5岁.本研究中我们对2010年成都市居民人均期望寿命、去死因期望寿命、潜在寿命损失率等指标进行分析,确定主要的健康问题,为提高成都市居民人均期望寿命提供依据.     

北京市居民健康期望寿命测算研究

目的：基于卫生系统现有数据测算北京市居民健康期望寿命,对该指标本土化研究与应用提出建议。资料与方法：利用2008年北京市年度人口和死亡资料,第四次国家卫生服务调查和第二次全国残疾人抽样调查资料,基于沙利文法测算常用健康期望寿命指标。结果：2008年北京市居民0岁自评健康期望寿命为72．75岁,男性71．22岁,女性73．89岁。0岁无失能期望寿命75．18岁,男性73．85岁,女性76．56岁。0岁无慢性病期望寿命62．73岁,男性61．87岁,女性63．75岁。北京居民健康期望寿命在期望寿命中的占比男性通常高于女性,但老年人口中,男性健康期望寿命在期望寿命中的占比低于女性。政策建议：使用健康期望寿命作为居民健康状况评价的重要指标,借鉴国外成熟经验建立本土化的数据报告和收集制度,推进居民全生命周期人口相关信息数据的整合与利用,重视老年人口的长期照护需求及其健康支持体系建设。     

中国人均预期寿命时空变化及影响因素分析

运用变异系数和灰色关联分析法,对中国人均预期寿命时空变化特征及影响因素的强度进行研究。结果表明:(1) 1981—2015年,我国人均预期寿命增长经历了慢—快—慢—快的四个阶段,预期寿命增长指数上升到113,其中男性上升到111,女性上升到115,男女预期寿命差距逐步增大。(2) 1990—2010年,全国31个省份人均预期寿命变异系数从0. 051降低到0. 036,预期寿命水平较低省份的增长速度明显高于较高的省份。(3)我国人均预期寿命的地域分布大体上分为东南部高预期寿命水平区、中北部中预期寿命水平区、西南部低预期寿命水平区。2010年我国人均预期寿命水平绝大多数省份处于第二级(76～80岁)和第三级(71～75岁),相对于1990年提高了两级。到2020年,我国将有北京、天津和上海3市处于第一级寿命水平(81～85岁),其余为第二和第三级预期寿命水平。影响我国省际人均预期寿命时空差异的因素是多方面的,其中最主要的是各地区的经济发展、医疗服务和医疗保障水平。     

Multilevel survival analysis of health inequalities in life expectancy

Background

The health status of individuals is determined by multiple factors operating at both micro and macro levels and the interactive effects of them. Measures of health inequalities should reflect such determinants explicitly through sources of levels and combining mean differences at group levels and the variation of individuals, for the benefits of decision making and intervention planning. Measures derived recently from marginal models such as beta-binomial and frailty survival, address this issue to some extent, but are limited in handling data with complex structures. Beta-binomial models were also limited in relation to measuring inequalities of life expectancy (LE) directly.

Methods

We propose a multilevel survival model analysis that estimates life expectancy based on survival time with censored data. The model explicitly disentangles total health inequalities in terms of variance components of life expectancy compared to the source of variation at the level of individuals in households and parishes and so on, and estimates group differences of inequalities at the same time. Adjusted distributions of life expectancy by gender and by household socioeconomic level are calculated. Relative and absolute health inequality indices are derived based on model estimates. The model based analysis is illustrated on a large Swedish cohort of 22,680 men and 26,474 women aged 65-69 in 1970 and followed up for 30 years. Model based inequality measures are compared to the conventional calculations.

Results

Much variation of life expectancy is observed at individual and household levels. Contextual effects at Parish and Municipality level are negligible. Women have longer life expectancy than men and lower inequality. There is marked inequality by the level of household socioeconomic status measured by the median life expectancy in each socio-economic group and the variation in life expectancy within each group.

Conclusion

Multilevel survival models are flexible and efficient tools in studying health inequalities of life expectancy or survival time data with a geographic structure of more than 2 levels. They are complementary to conventional methods and override some limitations of marginal models. Future research on determinants of health inequalities in the LE of the specific cohort on the household and individual factors could reveal some important causes over the marked household level inequalities.     

Regional differences in healthy life expectancy in The Netherlands

BACKGROUND: Healthy life expectancy has mainly been studied at the level of healthcare systems rather than at regional level within healthcare systems. In this article, healthy life expectancy at birth and at 65 years of age for men and women in the Netherlands has been described, and factors related to these regional variations have been explored. METHODS: Ecological study of 27 healthcare regions (hospital catchment areas). Life expectancy and healthy life expectancy were calculated using 1995 mortality data and pooled health interview survey data (1992-1997) from Statistics Netherlands. RESULTS: Healthy life expectancy shows a regional pattern, slightly different from that found in life expectancy and self-reported health. The regional distribution of male and female healthy life expectancy is different, especially at 65 years. Healthy life expectancy of women aged 65 years is independent of their total life expectancy. Social conditions and lifestyle differences between regions are negatively associated with healthy life expectancy in Dutch regions. Healthcare supply variables show no clear relationship. CONCLUSION: Although the Netherlands is a small, homogeneous country, substantial differences were found in healthy life expectancy.     

2000年我国少数民族人口死亡水平

目的　分析 2 0 0 0年我国 18个百万以上人口的少数民族的死亡水平 ,并与 1990年第 4次人口普查的数据进行比较 ,反映我国目前少数民族的卫生现状。方法　利用EXCEL软件计算死亡指标 ,SAS软件编制寿命表。结果　与 1990年相比 ,18个少数民族的期望寿命有不同程度的提高 ,12个少数民族的婴儿死亡率出现下降 ,同时各民族间的死亡水平存在较大差距。结论　提高卫生资源分配的公平性 ,保证基本卫生服务在少数民族地区的可及性 ,加强健康教育 ,不仅可以改善少数民族人口的健康状况 ,还可以进一步提高我国全社会人口的健康水平。     

Social gradient in life expectancy and health expectancy in Denmark

Summary Objectives: Health status of a population can be evaluated by health expectancy expressed as average lifetime in various states of health. The purpose of the study was to compare health expectancy in population groups at high, medium and low educational levels.Methods: Health interview data were combined with life table figures using Sullivans method.Results: Life expectancy was 4.3 years longer for 30-year-old men with a high educational level than for those with a low level. At age 30, the proportion of expected lifetime in self-rated good health was 67.7%, 76.1% and 82.3% for men with a low, medium and high educational level, respectively. Among women, life expectancy differed by 2.7 years between low and high educational level, and the proportion of expected lifetime in self-rated good health was 62.5% at the low and 80.5% at the high educational level.Conclusions: Educational level and life expectancy are clearly related. The social gradient in terms of health expectancy is even greater than that in terms of life expectancy.     

山西省居民预期寿命及其影响因素分析

目的了解山西省居民预期寿命水平,并探讨其影响因素。方法采用SAS13．0软件编制普查人口简略寿命表;用系统聚类法分析经济状况、卫生事业发展水平对居民预期寿命的影响。结果2010年山西省居民预期寿命为77．07岁,其中男性为75．02岁,女性为79．39岁,比2000年分别提高4．40岁、4．07岁和4．78岁,城镇居民预期寿命高于农村。2010年11个市居民预期寿命仍为太原市最高,晋城市最低。聚类分析结果显示,山西省经济及卫生事业发展越好的地区预期寿命越高。不同地理位置居民预期寿命有所差别,中部地区居民预期寿命较高。结论山西省居民预期寿命不断提高,社会经济、卫生事业发展水平以及自然环境因素是影响居民预期寿命的重要因素。     

四川省老年人口状况分析

目的:探讨四川省65岁以上老年人口的生存状况,为相关决策部门提供参考。方法:主要利用全国2000年第五次人口普查资料,运用描述性方法,进行有关指标的计算及比较。结果:四川省老年人口系数为7.56%,四川省已进入老龄化社会。四川省女性老年人口的平均余寿要高于男性1.94岁,城镇老年人口的平均余寿要高于农村3.95岁。四川省老年人口的健康状况要高于全国平均水平,其平均余寿高于全国平均水平0.17岁,但四川省老年人口的经济、文化状况低于全国平均水平。结论:为改善四川省老年人口的生存状况,应着重提高老年人口的经济、文化水平,同时要加强和完善养老及社会保障体系。     

Not all built the same? A comparative study of electoral systems and population health

Much literature depicts a worldwide democratic advantage in population health. However, less research compares health outcomes in the different kinds of democracy or autocracy. In an examination of 179 countries as they existed between 1975 and 2012, advantages in life expectancy and infant health appear most reliably for democracies that include the principle of proportional representation in their electoral rules. Compared to closed autocracies, they had up to 12 or more years of life expectancy on average, 75% less infant mortality, and double the savings in overall mortality for most other age groups. Majoritarian democracies, in contrast, did not experience longitudinal improvements in health relative to closed autocracies. Instead their population health appeared to be on par with or even superseded by competitive autocracies in most models. Findings suggest that the principle of proportional representation may be good for health at the national level. Implications and limitations are discussed.     

Priorities in the Polish health care system

Since 1999, Polish health policy has changed, the quality of services has increased, and also the level of financing, mainly from public benefits. Despite constant growth of indexes reflecting the health status of Polish society, such as life expectancy, quality of life, or decreasing index of deaths at birth, just as in the majority of European countries, in Poland the society is growing older, which implies the necessity to reorganize the system. In this paper, the author has described the most important factors that determine the operation of the health system in Poland, as well as presents the ways it was restructured over the last few years, taking into consideration the structural, legislative, financial, organizational, and quantitative aspects. Also, the latest trends in Polish health policy, which take into account new goals of the system, have been presented within.