基于心理健康维度的农村老年人健康预期寿命测算——多状态马尔科夫模型

目的 评估农村老年人基于心理维度的预期寿命(life expectancy, LE)和健康预期寿命(healthy life expectancy, HLE),以便提出延长农村老年人LE和HLE的对策建议。方法 基于“河南农村队列”基线和随访调查数据,通过多状态寿命表法分年龄性别计算农村≥60岁老年人群的LE和HLE。所计算的HLE指标包括无抑郁或焦虑症状预期寿命(depression-or anxiety-free life expectancy, DAFLE)、无抑郁症状预期寿命(depression-free life expectancy, DFLE)和无焦虑症状预期寿命(anxiety-free life expectancy, AFLE)。结果 60岁总人群的DAFLE、DFLE和AFLE分别为20.081 5岁、20.230 1岁和20.435 2岁,分别占LE的95.85%、96.28%和96.99%;60岁男性的DAFLE、DFLE和AFLE分别为18.076 8岁、18.012 8岁和18.166 5岁,分别占LE的96.70%、97.10%和97.41%;60岁女...     

中国肢体残疾人口预期寿命研究

目的 估算中国肢体残疾人口预期寿命.方法 基于2007-2010年监测肢体残疾人口平均死亡率,使用生命表方法 估算不同特征人口预期寿命及其标准误(s-x).结果 (1)肢体残疾人口女性预期寿命高于男性,女性和男性0岁预期寿命分别是63岁(s-x=2.6)和55岁(s-x=3.1);(2)35～50岁人口预期寿命城镇高于农村;(3)轻度肢体残疾人口预期寿命高于重度残疾人口,0岁预期寿命分别为62.5岁(s-x=2.4)和42岁(s-x=5.4);(4)肢体残疾人口预期寿命低于中国普通人群,男性和女性0岁预期寿命差距分别为17.1岁和12.7岁.结论 中国肢体残疾人口死亡水平较高,需要采取措施提高其预期寿命.

Abstract：

Objective To estimate the life expectancy of persons with physical disabilities in China based on data related to representative national disability.Methods Life table technique was used to estimate the life expectancy and its standard error by various characteristics on the basis of average mortality rates from the monitoring cases during 2007-2010.Results (1)Females were expected to live longer than males.The life expectancy at birth for females was 63 years with standard error(SE)=2.6 while for males it was 55 years(SE=3.1).(2)Persons aged 35-50 in urban areas had higher life expectancy than those in rural areas.(3)Life expectancy of persons with mild disability [62.5 years(SE=2.4)] was higher than that of persons with severe disability[42 years(SE=5.4)].(4)Life expectancies of persons with physical disability were much lower than that of the Chinese general population.Gaps of male and female life expectancy at birth were 17.1 years and 12.7 years,respectively.Conclusion Persons with physical disability had higher mortality and actions should be taken to improve their life expectancy,accordingly.     

我国老年人口健康预期寿命变动分析——基于人口普查数据的实证研究

目的：探究我国2010—2020年60岁及以上老年人口健康预期寿命的性别差异及时空分布特征,为促进健康预期寿命性别平等和地区均衡提供实证依据。方法：基于全国第六次和第七次人口普查数据,使用沙利文法计算我国60岁及以上老年人口健康预期寿命并比较其性别差异及时期变动,采用空间自相关(Moran’s I)分析健康预期寿命余寿占比的空间分布特点。结果：健康率随年龄增加而降低,男性老年人口健康率高于女性,性别差异主要集中在高龄段且随着时间缩小。女性的平均预期寿命和健康预期寿命均高于男性且提升幅度大于男性。健康预期寿命余寿占比,随时间扩大的基础上表现为男性高于女性,但性别差异呈缩小趋势;其空间分布特征为东部优于西部,且地区间的聚集程度增强。结论：十年间,我国老年人口健康水平提高,女性在长寿方面存在优势,但生存质量与男性相比仍然存在一定差距;老年人健康预期寿命余寿占比扩大,符合“疾病压缩”假说;同时,健康水平性别差异不断弥合,但地区间非均衡性加深。     

基于多状态Markov模型的我国老年人无失能期望寿命及其影响因素

目的 了解我国老年人无失能期望寿命（DFLE）现状及其影响因素和影响程度。方法 利用中国老年人口健康长寿调查研究2011-2018年数据,采用多状态Markov模型和微观仿真法计算我国≥65岁老年人的期望寿命（LE）、DFLE、DFLE占比（DFLE/LE）及危险因素所致的DFLE损失,利用Bootstrap法估计95%CI。结果 我国≥65岁老年人DFLE为14.27（95%CI：13.85~14.74）年,女性高于男性,经济状况较好者高于经济状况较差者;DFLE/LE为86.33%（95%CI：85.52%~87.18%）,男性高于女性,农村高于城镇。未定期体检、蔬菜水果摄入不足、吸烟和压力分别造成男性0.74、0.41、0.62、0.12年和女性0.82、0.42、0.19、0.20年的DFLE损失。消除以上4种危险因素,可使我国男女性老年人的DFLE分别增长1.73年和1.45年。结论 提高我国老年人DFLE应重点关注男性、经济状况较差的人群。促进老年人定期体检和足量的蔬菜水果摄入、禁烟、缓解老年人压力等措施可提高我国老年人的DFLE。     

北京市老年人健康预期寿命及其变化

目的了解北京地区老年人的健康预期寿命和变化。方法采用纵向研究方法对北京城区（宣武区）、郊区（大兴区）和山区（怀柔县）一个有代表性老年人群（3257人）进行了12年追踪，调查其健康和存活状况。用WHO的基本生活能力评估量表（ADL），评估老年人躯体功能健康状况及变化，采用IMaCH多状态法分析多次调查结果及不同健康状况的转变，计算老年人的健康预期寿命及不同时段的变化。结果纵向结果显示一些基本特征在不同时段维持不变：老年人的平均预期寿命（LE）、健康预期寿命（ALE）和健康预期寿命比值（ALE／LE）在城区显著高于农村；女性平均预期寿命高于男性，但ALE／LE低于男性。纵向观察的变化表现为：老年人的平均预期寿命有所提高，增加的幅度在农村大于城区，男性大于女性；城区高龄女性老年人的健康预期寿命近年有明显下降；所有老年人的ALE／LE近年呈下降趋势，尤其是城区老年人和高龄老年人更突出。结论北京地区老年人的健康预期寿命未与预期寿命同步增长，加强心脑血管疾病等慢性病防治，预防残疾和加强功能康复，是提高老年人健康预期寿命和生活质量的基础。     

健康预期寿命研究进展

近年来,随着老年人口的增多和寿命的延长,寿命中的生命质量日益成为社会关注的热点.之前用于评估人群健康状态和决定老龄人口政策制订所采用的指标是预期寿命(life expectancy),但预期寿命只能反映生命的数量,无法反映生命的质量.     

应用Fairlie分解法的老年人自评健康状况性别差异研究

  目的  了解我国老年人健康状况之间存在的性别差异，为缩小老年人性别之间存在的健康差异，提高健康公平性提供依据。  方法  以2013年中国健康与养老追踪调查（China health and retirement longitudinal study，CHARLS）中3 744名65岁及以上老年人为研究对象，采用Stata 14.0软件分析老年人健康状况存在的性别差异。  结果  3 744名老年人当中，男性的自评健康率为47.1%，女性为41.6%。不同性别老年人健康状况差异有统计学意义（χ2=11.74，P<0.001）；经Fairlie分解后得出，老年人自评健康状况之间存在的性别差异，主要受生活方式、收入和受教育程度的影响（均有P<0.05），贡献率分别为73.98%、17.48%和16.70%。  结论  我国男性老年人的自评健康状况好于女性。对女性老年人加大健康教育的宣传工作，提倡形成健康的生活习惯和生活方式，有益于提高女性老人的健康水平，从而缩小老年人健康状况的性别差异，促进老年人的健康公平。     

2011―2020年全国65岁及以上老年人肺结核报告发病情况分析

  目的  分析2011―2020年全国≥65岁老年人(简称老年人)肺结核报告发病特征。  方法  利用中国2011―2020年肺结核发病监测数据，分析老年人肺结核报告发病率及分布特征，计算年均变化趋势。  结果  全国老年人肺结核报告发病率从2011年的158.7/10万下降至2020年的98.3/10万。老年人肺结核的发病风险是＜65岁人群的2.4~2.9倍，其中以70~＜75岁和75~＜80岁年龄组的发病率最高。老年人中，男性的发病风险是女性的2.5~3.1倍，1月和3月的报告发病数最高，其中2020年1月―2020年4月的报告发病数较既往同期出现了大幅下降。中国东、中、西部老年人肺结核报告发病率分别为95.9/10万、159.0/10万和184.4/10万，中、西部地区分别是东部地区的1.7倍和1.9倍。2011―2019年，老年人肺结核报告发病率的年均递降率为3.5%，东、中、西部分别为4.9%、4.5%和1.5%，推算获得的2020年报告发病率高于实际的报告发病率。  结论  2011―2020年，中国老年人肺结核防治工作取得了显著成效，但总体负担依然很重，应重点关注西部的重点地区，并强化老年肺结核患者的发现等工作。     

2015-2019年云南省居民肝癌死亡趋势及寿命损失分析

  目的  了解2015-2019年云南省居民肝癌的死亡水平、变化趋势及寿命损失情况,为当地制定科学的防制措施提供依据。  方法  通过《人口死亡信息登记管理系统》获取云南省2015-2019年的肝癌死因监测数据,利用Stata 16软件和Excel 2019软件计算肝癌死亡和寿命损失相关指标,并用Joinpoint 4.9.0软件分析肝癌死亡和寿命损失的变化趋势,采用统计描述方法对云南省肝癌的死亡水平和寿命损失情况进行流行病学描述。  结果  2015-2019年云南省肝癌死亡累计报告30 912例,平均死亡年龄为(61.76±13.81)岁,标化死亡率(standardized mortality rate, SMR)从2015年的12.40/10万上升到2019年的14.10/10万,男性死亡率均高于女性,农村高于城市。云南省肝癌死亡率随年龄增长而增加,男性35岁死亡趋势开始快速增加。2015-2019年因肝癌死亡导致的潜在减寿年数(potential years of life lost, PYLL)为256 380人年,潜在减寿年率(potential years of life lost rate, PYLLR)为1.08‰;标化潜在减寿年数(standardized potential years of life loss, SPYLL)为266 962人年;标化潜在减寿年率(standardized potential years of life loss rate, SPYLLR)为1.12‰;男性的寿命损失高于女性;农村的寿命损失高于城市。  结论  2015-2019年云南省肝癌粗死亡率(crude death rate, CDR)和寿命损失呈上升趋势,男性和农村居民是高危人群,今后须加强对男性的早期体检,农村地区须投入更多的医疗资源,向全社会倡导合理膳食、体育锻炼等健康的生活方式,做好肝癌的早期预防工作。     

2010-2020年广州市人群疾病负担分析

  目的  评价2010-2020年广州市人群疾病负担的变化趋势,分析其性别和年龄差异。  方法  使用2010-2020年广州市死因监测数据和人口学数据测算伤残调整寿命年(disability-adjusted life years, DALY),Joinpoint回归分析模型分析DALY的变化趋势。  结果  2020年广州市男女粗死亡率分别为640.87/10万人和464.49/10万人,主要死因为心血管疾病、肿瘤和慢性呼吸道疾病。2010-2020年,男性心血管疾病上升为疾病负担首位,肌肉骨骼疾病、皮肤和皮下疾病、意外伤害和营养不良的疾病负担顺位上升。女性心血管疾病保持疾病负担首位,肌肉骨骼疾病、营养不良、神经失调、意外伤害、皮肤和皮下疾病的疾病负担顺位上升。男性和女性的总DALY基本保持不变,但粗率和中标率呈下降趋势。不同年龄组的疾病负担顺位有所差异。  结论  2010-2020年广州市疾病负担以非传染性疾病为主,不同性别和年龄人群的疾病负担模式具有各自特征。应结合城市层面的主要健康问题,探明危险因素,针对重点人群疾病制定有效的预防控制策略。     

Differences in disability-free life expectancy by gender and autonomous regions in Spain

BACKGROUND: Improvement of population health is the main aim and an important challenge for the health system. To monitor the population health indicators like disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) have been implemented. The purpose of this paper was to analyze the geographical distribution of DFLE according to autonomous regions in Spain. METHODS: Data of mortality, population and disability for the year 1999, provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INE), were used. To calculate DFLE by gender and region we used the Sullivan method that weights the expected time to live according to the status of disablement of the population. The standard error of DFLE, the expectation of disability and the proportion of time lived free of disability have also been estimated. RESULTS: In 1999 the DFLE at birth in Spain was 68.5 year for men and 72.2 years in women. Men lived proportionally more time free of disability than women (91% versus 87.7%) with an expectation of disability of 6.8 and 10.1 years respectively. Variability among regions was higher in DFLE than in life expectancy (LE). The regions with highest LE are not always those with the highest proportion of time lived without disability. CONCLUSIONS: Highest life expectancy does not always mean best health as it has been assumed currently. The DFLE indicator is a useful tool to show health status differences among the Spanish population.     

Differential inequity in health expectancy by region in Belgium

Summary. Objectives: To evaluate the size of social inequities in health between regions in Belgium using a composite health measure, the disability free life expectancy (DFLE). Methods: Mortality data (5-years follow-up of the 1991 census) are combined with the 1997 Health Interview Survey to estimate the DFLE by education. Differences in partial life expectancy_25–74 (LE_25–74) and in DFLE_25–74 between those at the bottom and those at the top of a relative social scale are used to compare the regional inequities. Results: The higher educated person has a longer LE, with more years free of disability and less years with disability (in years: Flemish males: LE = 46.48; DFLE = 42.08; Walloon males: LE = 44.92; DFLE = 39.80; Flemish females: LE = 47.90; DFLE =41.93; Walloon females: LE = 46.90; DFLE = 39.84) compared to the population at the bottom of the education hierarchy (in years: Flemish males: LE = 44.86; DFLE = 30.16; Walloon males: LE = 42.77; DFLE = 27.00; Flemish females: LE = 46.86; DFLE =28.30; Walloon females: LE = 45.44; DFLE = 25.30). The inequity in LE and in DFLE is larger in the Walloon Region than in the Flemish Region. Only the regional difference in inequity in LE is statistically significant. Conclusion: The DFLE can be used to monitor the size of health inequities. An erratum to this article is available at .     

Inequalities in healthy life expectancy between ethnic groups in England and Wales in 2001

Objectives. We aim to develop robust estimates of disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and healthy life expectancy (HLE) for ethnic groups in England and Wales in 2001 and to examine observed variations across ethnic groups.

Design. DFLE and HLE by age and gender for five-year age groups were computed for 16 ethnic groups by combining the 2001 Census data on ethnicity, self-reported limiting long-term illness and self-rated health using mortality by ethnic group estimated by two methods: the Standardised Illness Ratio (SIR) method and the Geographically Weighted Method (GWM).

Results. The SIR and GWM methods differed somewhat in their estimates of life expectancy (LE) at birth but produced very similar estimates of DFLE and HLE by ethnic group. For the more conservative method (GWM), the range in DFLE at birth was 10.5 years for men and 11.9 years for women, double that in LE. DFLE at birth was highest for Chinese men (64.7 years, 95% CI 64.0–65.3) and women (67.0 years, 95% CI 66.4–67.6). Over half of the ethnic minority groups (men: 10; women: 9) had significantly lower DFLE at birth than White British men (61.7 years, 95% CI 61.7–61.7) or women (64.1 years, 95% CI 64.1–64.2), mostly the Black, Asian and mixed ethnic groups. The lowest DFLE observed was for Bangladeshi men (54.3 years, 95% CI 53.7–54.8) and Pakistani women (55.1 years, 95% CI 54.8–55.4). Notable were Indian women whose LE was similar to White British women but who had 4.3 years less disability-free (95% CI 4.0–4.6).

Conclusions. Inequalities in DFLE between ethnic groups are large and exceed those in LE. Moreover, certain ethnic groups have a larger burden of disability that does not seem to be associated with shorter LE. With the increasing population of the non-White British community, it is essential to be able to identify the ethnic groups at higher risk of disability, in order to target appropriate interventions.     

The contribution of specific diseases to educational disparities in disability-free life expectancy

OBJECTIVES: We examined the contribution that specific diseases, as causes of both death and disability, make to educational disparities in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE). METHODS: We used disability data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey (1997) and mortality data from the National Mortality Follow-Up Study (1991-1996) to assess education-related disparities in DFLE and to partition these differences into additive contributions of specific diseases. RESULTS: The DFLE advantage of higher-educated compared with lower-educated persons was 8.0 years for men and 5.9 years for women. Arthritis (men, 1.3 years; women, 2.2 years), back complaints (men, 2.1 years), heart disease/stroke (men, 1.5 years; women, 1.6 years), asthma/chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) (men, 1.2 years; women, 1.5 years), and "other diseases" (men, 2.4 years) contributed the most to this difference. CONCLUSIONS: Disabling diseases, such as arthritis, back complaints, and asthma/COPD, contribute substantially to differences in DFLE by education. Public health policy aiming to reduce existing disparities in the DFLE and to improve population health should not only focus on fatal diseases but also on these nonfatal diseases.     

Does socio-economic advantage lead to a longer, healthier old age?

The effect of socio-economic disadvantage on mortality is well documented and differences exist even at older ages. However, whether this translates into differences in the quality of life lived at older ages is less well studied, and in particular in the proportion of remaining life spent without ill health (healthy life expectancy), a key UK Government target. Although there have been studies exploring socio-economic differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) worldwide, these have tended to focus on a single measure of socio-economic advantage, for example, education, race, social class or income, with the majority based on cross-sectional data from younger populations. In this prospective study we examine differences in DFLE and total life expectancy (TLE) at older ages using a range of measures of socio-economic advantage. We use a longitudinal study of 1480 participants aged 75 years or over in 1988 registered with a UK primary care practice, who were followed up until 2003 with measurements at up to seven time points. Disability was defined as difficulty with any one of five activities of daily living. The largest differences in DFLE for both men and women were found for housing tenure. Women aged 75 years living in owned or mortgaged property could expect to live 1 year extra without disability compared with those living in rented accommodation, while for men the difference was almost 1.5 years. The effect of socio-economic advantage on disability-free and total life expectancies appeared to be larger for men than women. In women, socio-economic advantage had more effect on DFLE than total life expectancy for all indicators considered, thus the socio-economically advantaged experienced a compression of disability.     

中国老年人慢性病患病、失能与失智状况对死亡风险的影响:基于人群的前瞻性队列研究

  目的  利用基于人群的前瞻性队列研究,分析协同控制后中国老年人慢性病患病、失能和失智对死亡风险的影响。  方法  基于中国老年健康影响因素,跟踪调查2002―2018年共6期数据中13 540位65岁及以上老年人,采用Cox比例风险模型分析慢性病患病、失能和失智与死亡风险的关系。  结果  65岁及以上老年人的生存平均时间为5.75(2.33. 13.00)年。在充分调整混杂因素并协同控制三个维度健康因素后,本研究发现在慢性病患病维度,癌症患者比未患癌症者死亡风险高50%(HR=1.50, 95% CI: 1.16~1.94),而非癌慢性病患病与否与死亡风险的关系差异无统计学意义。在失能维度,日常活动能力受限者比不受限者死亡风险高40%(HR=1.40, 95% CI: 1.32~1.47)。在失智维度,认知受损者相较于未受损者死亡风险高30%(HR=1.30, 95% CI: 1.23~1.37),痴呆患者相较于未患痴呆者死亡风险高26%(HR=1.26, 95% CI: 1.09~1.46)。  结论  在过去20年里,中国老年人健康相关的死亡风险因素主要来自患癌、日常活动能力受限、认知受损和罹患痴呆,提示对于老年人的死亡风险,相较于疾病特别是非癌慢性病患病本身,罹患疾病后的失能与失智尤为值得关注。     

Regional variations in and correlates of disability-free life expectancy among older adults in China

Background  

Considerable socioeconomic and health inequalities have been reported in China. However, because of a lack of appropriate data, limited research has been conducted on variations in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) among older adults. This study aimed to use the most up-to-date disability survey data to explore geographical variations in DFLE at age 60 in China and to identify the socioeconomic and health care factors that partially account for these variations.     

男男性行为人群与男性性伴和女性性伴的性行为特征及影响因素

  目的  了解安徽省男男性行为人群（men who have sex with men,MSM）与其男性性伴和女性性伴的性行为特征及影响因素。  方法  以合肥、芜湖和六安3个城市为研究现场,采用滚雪球法和网络招募法招募MSM人群,对符合纳入标准的MSM进行匿名问卷调查。采用多因素Logistic回归分析模型分析MSM人群最近6个月发生异性性行为的危险因素。  结果  共招募1 200名MSM,最近6个月78.3% MSM与男性性伴有过肛交性行为,20.9%与女性性伴有过异性性行为,16.5%最近6个月与男性性伴、女性性伴均有过性行为。最近6个月异性性行为中的安全套坚持使用率（29.9%）明显低于同性性行为的安全套坚持使用率（53.0%）,在最近一次异性性行为中的安全套使用率（52.2%）也明显低于同性性行为中的安全套使用率（79.6%）（均有P < 0.05）。多因素分析结果显示,已婚（包括在婚/同居/离异/丧偶）、在调查城市居住时间>2年、有同性商业性行为的MSM更容易发生异性性行为。  结论  MSM人群存在较高比例的双性性行为,且安全套坚持使用率较低,应该加强对他们的性健康教育、风险感知教育和行为干预。     

Inequalities in longevity and quality of life between Andalusia and Spain

BACKGROUND: Because of the increase in life expectancy (LE) throughout the twentieth century, indicators providing information on quality of life and its distribution in distinct geographical areas are required. We describe LE and life expectancy without disability (LEWD) by age and sex and estimate the magnitude of inequalities between Andalusia and Spain. MATERIAL AND METHOD: Mortality data from the Natural Population Movement, the Survey of Disabilities, Deficiencies and Health Status, and the populations of the National Institute of Statistics for Andalusia and Spain in 1999 were used. Abbreviated life tables were constructed and were used to calculate LEWD through Sullivan's method. LE and LEWD by age and sex were obtained for Andalusia and Spain. RESULTS: LE was lower in Andalusia than in Spain in all age groups and in both sexes. At birth, LE was 73.9 years for men and was 80.9 years for women in Andalusia and was 75.0 years and 82.1 years in Spain respectively. Inequalities between Andalusia and Spain in LEWD were greater in all age groups both in men and in women: at birth LEWD was 66.0 years and 69.0 years for men and women in Andalusia and was 68.3 years and 72.0 years in Spain. CONCLUSIONS: Longevity and quality of life are lower in Andalusia than the mean for Spain, especially in elderly women.