Clinicopathologic factors and preoperative ultrasonographic characteristics for predicting central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma: a single center retrospective study

IntroductionThe treatment of papillary thyroid microcarcinoma remains controversial. Central lymph node metastasis is common in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma and it is an important consideration in treatment strategy selection.ObjectiveThe aim of this study was to investigate clinicopathologic risk factors and thyroid nodule sonographic characteristics for central lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed the data of 599 papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients who underwent surgery from 2005 to 2017 at a single institution. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to identify the clinicopathologic factors and preoperative sonographic features of central lymph node metastasis. A receiver-operating characteristic, ROC curve analysis, was performed to identify the efficacy of ultrasonographic features in predicting central lymph node metastasis. A nomogram based on the risk factors was established to predict central lymph node metastasis.ResultsThe incidence of central lymph node metastasis was 22.4%. The univariate and multivariate analyses suggested that gender, age, multifocality, extrathyroidal invasion, and lateral lymph node metastasis were independent risk factors for central lymph node metastasis. The univariate and multivariate analyses revealed that nodular shape, margin, and calcification were independently associated with central lymph node metastasis. The ROC curve analysis revealed that the combination of shape, margin and calcification had excellent accuracy in predicting central lymph node metastasis. The nomogram was developed based on the identified risk factors for predicting central lymph node metastasis, and the calibration plot analysis indicated the good performance and clinical utility of the nomogram.ConclusionsCentral lymph node metastasis is associated with male gender, younger age (<45 years), extrathyroidal invasion, multifocality and lateral lymph node metastasis in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma patients. The ultrasongraphic features, such as irregular shape, ill-defined margin and calcification, may improve the efficacy of predicting central lymph node metastasis. Surgeons and radiologists should pay close attention to the patients who have these risk factors. The nomogram may help guide surgical decision making in papillary thyroid microcarcinoma.     

基于SEER数据库脊索瘤临床预测模型的建立及验证

目的构建脊索瘤患者的预测模型并进行验证。方法从SEER数据库(2004~2015年)中鉴定和收集597例脊索瘤患者。Nomogram是基于建模组420例拥有完整数据的患者建立的。C指数(C-index)和校正曲线确定Nomogram的预测精度和判别能力。结果建立了基于年龄、种族、原发部位及数量、肿瘤分期(TNM)、手术方式、是否放疗、肿瘤转移和肿瘤大小等预后因素的预测模型,C指数为0.778。确定生存概率的校准曲线表明,Nomogram预测结果与实际观测结果吻合较好。年龄>60岁(P<0.001,HR 5.723,95%CI 1.988~16.474)、M1(P<0.001,HR 4.121,95%CI 1.834~9.257)、手术方式(全切除,P<0.01,HR0.416,95%CI 0.236~0.732;根治性扩大切除,P<0.0001,HR 0.251,95%CI 0.143~0.442)是独立预后因素。结论 Nomogram为脊柱脊索瘤患者提供了更准确的预后预测。本研究结果显示,年龄>60岁肿瘤分期M1和不进行手术是显著缩短脊索瘤患者生存时间的独立危险因素。     

Nomogram for predicting overall survival in patients with triple-negative apocrine breast cancer: Surveillance,epidemiology, and end results-based analysis

PurposeTriple-negative apocrine carcinoma (TNAC) is a sort of triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) that is rare and prognosis of these patients is unclear. The present study constructed an effective nomogram to assist in predicting TNAC patients overall survival (OS).MethodsA total of 373 TNAC patients from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) got extracted from 2010 to 2016 and were divided into training (n = 261) and external validation (n = 112) groups (split ratio, 7:3) randomly. A Cox regression model was utilized to creating a nomogram according to the risk factors affecting prognosis. The predictive capability of the nomogram was estimated with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA).ResultsMultivariate Cox regression analysis revealed age, surgery, chemotherapy, stage, and first malignant primary as independent predictors of OS. A prediction model was constructed and virtualized using the nomogram. The time-dependent area under the curve (AUC) showed satisfactory discrimination of the nomogram. Good consistency was shown on the calibration curves in OS between actual observations and the nomogram prediction. What's more, DCA showed that the nomogram had incredible clinical utility. Through separating the patients into groups of low and high risk group that connects with the risk system that shows a huge difference between the low-risk and high risk OS (P < 0.001).ConclusionTo predict the OS in TNAC patients, the nomogram utilizing the risk stratification system that is corresponding. These tools may help to evaluate patient prognosis and guide treatment decisions.     

An Internally Validated Nomogram for Predicting the Likelihood of Improvement of Clinical Global Impression in Patients With Lifelong Premature Ejaculation Treated With Dapoxetine

BackgroundAlthough the introduction of dapoxetine has ushered in a new era in the treatment of premature ejaculation, many patients with lifelong premature ejaculation (LPE) exhibit an unimproved clinical global impression even after treatment with dapoxetine.AimTo investigate independent predictors of the improvement of Clinical Global Impression (iCGI) in patients with LPE treated with dapoxetine and develop a nomogram to predict a patient's likelihood of achieving iCGI.MethodsData of 243 patients with LPE diagnosed at Xijing Hospital (Xi'an, China) and Northwest Women's and Children's Hospital (Xi'an, China) from January 2019 to May 2020 were analyzed. Independent predictors of iCGI were identified, and a nomogram was developed using R software based on a multivariate logistic regression model. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram was measured using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The nomogram was calibrated by comparing predictions with observations.Main Outcome MeasuresThe primary outcome was the patient-rated Clinical Global Impression of Change scale score after a 4-week course of dapoxetine treatment, which was collected via an online questionnaire. A Clinical Global Impression of Change score of ≥1 was defined as iCGI in this study.ResultsPatients with LPE with at least a bachelor's degree, a self-reported intravaginal ejaculation latency time of >1 minute, and an International Index of Erectile Function question 5 score of ≥3 were independent factors associated with achieving iCGI, whereas a Premature Ejaculation Diagnostic Tool question 1 score of ≥2 was an independent factor negatively associated with achieving iCGI. The predictive accuracy of the nomogram, which was developed by integrating all variables with independent predictive significance, was 0.710 (95% confidence interval: 0.702–0.718). In addition, the calibration plot demonstrated excellent agreement between predictions and observations.Clinical ImplicationsIf the predictive performance of our nomogram is further proven in multiple external validations, it can be used to select suitable patients for dapoxetine treatment, thereby reducing the number of patients discontinuing treatment.Strengths & LimitationsThis study developed the first nomogram for predicting the likelihood of achieving iCGI in patients with LPE treated with dapoxetine. However, our nomogram was not externally validated using independent cohorts from other institutions.ConclusionThis study identified several independent predictors of iCGI in patients with LPE treated with dapoxetine. An effective nomogram was developed to predict their likelihood of achieving iCGI. External validations using data of Western patients with LPE are required to test the broader applicability of this Chinese patient-based tool.Hou G, Gao M, Zhang L, et al. An Internally Validated Nomogram for Predicting the Likelihood of Improvement of Clinical Global Impression in Patients With Lifelong Premature Ejaculation Treated With Dapoxetine. J Sex Med 2020;17:2341–2350.     

A novel prognostic nomogram based on microvascular invasion and hematological biomarkers to predict survival outcome for hepatocellular carcinoma patients

PurposeThis study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for overall survival (OS) prediction in which combine clinical characteristics and hematological biomarkers in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsWe performed a retrospective analysis of 807 HCC patients. All the clinical data of these patients were collected through electronic medical record (EMR). The independent predictive variables were identified by cox regression analysis. We tested the accuracy of the nomograms by discrimination and calibration, and then plotted decision curves to assess the benefits of nomogram-assisted decisions in a clinical context, and compared with the TNM staging systems and microvascular invasion (MVI) on HCC prognosis.ResultsThe primary cohort consisted of 545 patients with clinicopathologically diagnosed with HCC from 2008 to 2013, while 262 patients from 2014 to 2016 in external validation cohort. Variables included in the nomograms were TNM Stage, microvascular invasion (MVI), alpha fetoprotein (AFP), platelet to lymphocyte ratio (PLR) and prothrombin time (PT). The C-index of nomogram was 0.768, which was superior than the C-index of TNM Stage (0.660, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.664, P < 0.001) alone in the primary cohort. In the validation cohort, the models had a C-index of 0.845, and were also statistically higher when compared to C-index values for TNM Stage (0.687, P < 0.001) and MVI(0.684, P < 0.001). Calibration curves showed adequate calibration of predicted and reported OS prediction throughout the range of HCC outcomes. Decision curve analysis demonstrated that the nomogram was clinically useful than the TNM Stage and MVI alone. Moreover, patients were divided into three distinct risk groups for OS by the nomogram: low risk group, middle risk group and a high risk group, respectively.ConclusionThe nomogram presents more accurate and useful prognostic power, which could be used to predict OS for patients with HCC.     

原发性肝癌射频消融术后复发预测模型的建立及评价

目的 构建和评价用于预测原发性肝癌（primary liver cancer，PLC）患者射频消融（radiofrequency ablation，RFA） 术后无瘤生存率的列线图模型。 方法 回顾性分析2009年6月至2017年5月于广西医科大学附属肿瘤医院接受射频消融治疗的213例PLC患者的临床资料。ＰＬＣ患者被随机分为训练组（n=133）和验证组（n=80）。采用Cox回归模型分析射频消融术后复发的因素，并建立复发的列线图模型。通过校准曲线评估模型的预测符合度，Kaplan-Meier 曲线评估模型的实用性，一致性指数（C-index）评估模型的准确度。结果 训练组1年、3年、5年无瘤生存率分别为65.25%、40.91%、26.99%，验证组分别为66.29%、48.10%、24.59%，两组生存曲线比较差异无统计学意义（P=0.785）。Cox回归分析结果显示，肿瘤数目（HR=1.921， 95%CI：1.136~3.251）、丙肝抗体阳性（HR=4.545，95%CI：1.700~12.149）、HBV-DNA≥10² IU/mL（HR=1.993，95%CI：1.209~3.284）及血清前白蛋白（HR=0.996，95%CI：0.993~0.999）为无瘤生存率的影响因素。基于肿瘤数目、HBV-DNA和血清前白蛋白等因素建立列线图模型，训练组和验证组的 C-index 分别为 0.649（95%CI：0.588~0.710）、0.641（95%CI：0.556~0.724），校准图形中标准曲线与预测校准曲线贴合良好。采用列线图将患者分为高风险组和低风险组，高风险组无瘤生存率低于低风险组（P<0.05）。结论 基于肿瘤数目、HBV-DNA和血清前白蛋白等因素建立的列线图测模型可预测PLC射频消融术后的无瘤生存率，对患者辅助治疗具有一定指导价值。     

A Novel Nomogram to Identify Candidates for Extended Pelvic Lymph Node Dissection Among Patients with Clinically Localized Prostate Cancer Diagnosed with Magnetic Resonance Imaging-targeted and Systematic Biopsies

Background

Available models for predicting lymph node invasion (LNI) in prostate cancer (PCa) patients undergoing radical prostatectomy (RP) might not be applicable to men diagnosed via magnetic resonance imaging (MRI)-targeted biopsies.

Individual prediction of lateral neck metastasis risk in patients with unifocal papillary thyroid carcinoma

IntroductionMuch controversy exists over whether to perform lateral neck dissection (LND) on patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC). This study aimed to build predictive nomograms that could individually estimate lateral neck metastasis (LNM) risk and help determine follow up intensity.Patients and methodsUnifocal PTC patients who underwent LND between April 2012 and August 2014 were identified. Clinical and pathological variables were retrospectively evaluated using univariate and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis. Variables that had statistical significance in final multivariate logistic models were chosen to build nomograms, which were further corrected using the bootstrap resampling method.ResultsIn all, 505 PTC patients were eligible for analysis. Among these, 178 patients (35.2%) had lateral neck metastasis. Two nomograms were generated: nomogram (c) and nomogram (c + p). Nomogram (c) incorporated four clinical variables: age, tumor size, tumor site, and extrathyroidal extension (ETE). It had a good discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.79 (bootstrap-corrected, 0.78). Nomogram (c + p) incorporated two clinical variables and two pathological variables: tumor size, tumor site, extranodal extension (ENE), and number of positive nodes in the central compartment. Nomogram (c + p) showed an excellent discriminative ability, with a C-index of 0.86 (bootstrap-corrected, 0.85).ConclusionTwo predictive nomograms were generated. Nomogram (c) is a clinical model, whereas nomogram (c + p) is a clinicopathological model. Each nomogram incorporates only four variables and can give an accurate estimate of LNM risk in unifocal PTC patients, which may assist clinicians in patient counseling and decision making regarding LND.     

COH outcomes in breast cancer patients for fertility preservation: a comparison with the expected response by age

PurposeBreast cancer is the most common cancer diagnosed during childbearing age, and fertility preservation is becoming increasingly more essential. However, recent studies indicate a possible poorer response to controlled ovarian hyperstimulation (COH) in cancer patients than in non-cancer controls and a negative impact of BRCA mutations on female fertility. This study aims to evaluate ovarian response and the number of mature oocytes (MII) vitrified in women with breast cancer, with or without BRCA mutation, comparing them to the expected response according to an age-related nomogram.MethodsThis is a retrospective observational study involving sixty-one breast cancer patients who underwent COH for oocyte cryopreservation. The age-specific nomogram was built using 3871 patients who underwent COH due to oocyte donation, fertility preservation for non-medical reasons, or FIVET for male factor exclusively.ResultsThe mean number of oocytes retrieved was 13.03, whereas the mean number of MII oocytes was 10.00. After the application of the z-score, no statistically significant differences were found compared with the expected response in the general population, neither by dividing patients according to the presence or absence of BRCA mutation nor according to the phase in which they initiated stimulation.ConclusionThe results obtained do not support the notion of a negative impact of the BRCA mutation on the ovarian response of women with breast cancer. Women with breast cancer undergoing COH for fertility preservation can expect the ovarian response predicted for their age.