2016年重庆市学校结核病疫情流行概况分析

目的 通过对2016年重庆市学校结核病疫情处置现状进行分析,了解当前学校结核病疫情处置的不足,为学校结核病防控措施提供参考。 方法 利用Excel 2007建立重庆市学校结核病疫情监测及处置数据库,以辖区内学校为监测单位,收集重庆市2016年学校结核疫情处置信息,采用SPSS 16.0进行统计学分析。 结果 2016年重庆市39个区县528所学校发生了结核病疫情,其中303所学校发现528次散发病例,13所学校发现14次聚集性疫情苗头,1所学校发现1次聚集性疫情,主要集中在公办、寄宿制、高级中等教育阶段。筛查学校结核病患者的密切接触者46 831例,发现结核病患者53例,检出率为0.11%,学生(0.11%)、教职工(0.05%)、家属(0.63%)接触者中结核病检出率差异有统计学意义(Fisher精确概率法, P=0.000)。寄宿制学生、非寄宿制学生休学比例分别为70.87%、80.83%,差异有统计学意义(χ²=8.28,P=0.004)。学校发生结核病疫情后开展结核病健康教育、培训、感染控制比例较低,分别为67.80%、56.44%、69.32%,不同教育阶段学校开展健康教育的比例不同,差异有统计学意义(χ²=13.484,P=0.018),其中学前教育、中等职业教育、高等教育比例较低,分别为42.86%、58.72%、58.82%。 结论 2016年重庆市学校结核病疫情主要为散发病例,寄宿制高级中等教育阶段是学校结核病防控工作的重点,规范密切接触者筛查方式,加强休学管理,重视健康教育、培训、感染控制对学校结核病防控工作具有重要意义。     

广州天河区2001-2010年传染病流行概况分析

目的探讨10年来传染病发生趋势,为制定防控措施提供参考依据。方法采用描述性流行病学方法对本辖区2001-2010年间各类法定传染病疫情报告资料进行统计学分析。结果 10年来共报告法定传染病31种93 566例,其中甲类1种7例,乙类22种49289例,丙类8种44 270例。10年间传染病构成比主要以肠道传染病和呼吸道传染病为主。虫媒和自然疫源性疾病构成比波动较小。结论由于本辖区人口构成比较复杂,流动人口较多,规范性预防接种难以实现,经常有输入性传染病病例的发生,导致传染病防控难度加大。需要政府加大对传染病防控机构人力和财力的投入。     

SIR型传染病的预测方法研究

首先利用疾病传播的规律建立了SIR型传染病传播机理的微分方程模型,根据历史资料对模型中的参数进行多项式回归,得出回归曲线。基于此模型建立了甲型H1N1的动态预测模型,并以2009年全国的甲型H1N1数据为例进行了预测和分析,预测结果显示该模型具有一定的精度和可行性,可以给相关部门提供切实可行的参考建议。     

2012咸宁市手足口病疫情分析

目的了解咸宁市手足口病的流行特点,为制定手足口病防治措施提供依据。方法对2012年咸宁市区（咸宁市中心医院、咸宁市第一人民医院咸安区妇幼保健院咸安桂花镇卫生院、马桥镇卫生院、汀泗镇卫生院、浮山大幕卫生院）手足口病疫情资料进行分析。结果 2012年咸宁市区报告手足口病1 480人,同期总人口28.15万人,发病率525.75/10万,男性患者961例,女性患者519例,男女比例是1.85∶1,男性患者高于女性患者（P〈0.01）;温泉城区592人（40.0%）,咸安城区656人（44.32%）,咸安妇幼保健院71人（4.79%）,永安社区61人（4.12%）,马桥镇卫生院62人（4.18%）,桂花镇卫生院15人（1.01%）,咸安浮山社区12人（0.81%）,汀泗桥卫生院4人,大幕乡卫生院3人,向阳湖1人。1480例中4~7月发病848例（57.29%）,10~12月发病428例（28.91%）;五岁及以下儿童1467例（99.12%）,散居儿童1201例（81.14%）,幼托儿童259例（17.5%）,学生18例（1.21%）。结论 2012年咸宁市手足口病发病率相对较高,防控工作的重点为散居儿童和幼托机构儿童。     

Emergence and Spread of SARS-CoV-2 Lineages B.1.1.7 and P.1 in Italy

Italy’s second wave of SARS-CoV-2 has hit hard, with more than three million cases and over 100,000 deaths, representing an almost ten-fold increase in the numbers reported by August 2020. Herein, we present an analysis of 6515 SARS-CoV-2 sequences sampled in Italy between 29 January 2020 and 1 March 2021 and show how different lineages emerged multiple times independently despite lockdown restrictions. Virus lineage B.1.177 became the dominant variant in November 2020, when cases peaked at 40,000 a day, but since January 2021 this is being replaced by the B.1.1.7 ‘variant of concern’. In addition, we report a sudden increase in another documented variant of concern—lineage P.1—from December 2020 onwards, most likely caused by a single introduction into Italy. We again highlight how international importations drive the emergence of new lineages and that genome sequencing should remain a top priority for ongoing surveillance in Italy.     

SARIMA-GRNN组合模型和SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用

目的 探讨SARIMA-GRNN组合模型和SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用,并对他们的预测效果进行比较。 方法 选取2004—2016年上海市流行性腮腺炎逐月发病率资料,基于2004年1月—2016年6月的数据建立SARIMA模型。利用2004—2015年流行性腮腺炎的SARIMA模型拟合值与实际值、时间因子训练SARIMA-GRNN组合模型,并运用2016年1—6月数据进行验证,筛选模型最优平滑因子(spread)。采用2016年7—12月数据进行回代验证模型的外推预测效果。评价指标包括平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)、平均误差率(MER)、均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)。 结果 SARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)₁₂为最优SARIMA模型。SARIMA-GRNN组合模型spread 值为0.0037。SARIMA模型、SARIMA-GRNN组合模型拟合的MAPE、MER、MSE和MAE依次分别为16.19%、15.18%、0.14、0.25;2.93%、2.28%、0.01、0.04。SARIMA模型、SARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测的MAPE、MER、MSE和MAE依次分别为17.40%、17.26%、0.03、0.16;15.24%、15.50%、0.02、0.14。 结论 SARIMA-GRNN组合模型拟合及预测效果均优于SARIMA模型,但预测精度有待进一步提高。     

乳山市两所医院鲍曼不动杆菌耐药性及流行性分析

目的分析乳山市两所医院鲍曼不动杆菌的耐药性及流行特点。方法收集乳山市人民医院、乳山市中医院2015年1-12月临床分离鲍曼不动杆菌,进行药敏试验,选取50株鲍曼不动杆菌采用脉冲场凝胶电泳分析菌株同源性。结果共收集鲍曼不动杆菌158株,其中乳山市人民医院108株,乳山市中医院50株。标本来源以痰液(59.9%)为主,分布科室以呼吸科(39.8%)和ICU(25.3%)为主。药敏结果显示,所检测菌株对氨曲南、氨苄西林、头孢西丁100.0%耐药,对多黏菌素B、替加环素均敏感。50株鲍曼不动杆菌可分为A~E共5种型别,其中A型又分为A1、A2、A3等3个亚型,为主要流行型别。结论乳山市两所医院鲍曼不动杆菌耐药问题较严峻,主要存在于呼吸科、ICU等科室,以引起呼吸道感染为主,在两所医院不同科室间存在播散流行。     

Cell attenuated porcine epidemic diarrhea virus strain Zhejiang08 provides effective immune protection attributed to dendritic cell stimulation

Since 2010, the porcine epidemic diarrhea coronavirus (PEDV) has caused significant damage to the global pork industry. However, classical PEDV vaccine strains only provide limited protection against emerging strains. In this study, we successfully isolated and attenuated the PEDV epidemic strain Zhejiang08, which was characterized by good cell adaptation and high-titer production 48 h post infection in Vero E6 cells. The attenuated virus induced a high level of virus-specific neutralizing antibodies until 120 days after immunization in piglets and provided complete protection when challenged with an emerging virus strain on day 14 post immunization. Moreover, the capability to activate dendritic cells (DCs) of this isolate was identified. Higher expression levels of IL-12 and IFN-γ were recorded in DCs after treatment with Zhejiang08 for 24 h. Furthermore, genome sequencing and phylogenetic analysis revealed high homology between the main antigen epitopes of Zhejiang08 and PEDV pandemic isolates following 2011. Combining the glycosylation site prediction results and their distribution within the spatial structure of the S protein, led to the conclusion that the observed more effective host immune response of Zhejiang08 compared to CV777 was possibly associated with a lack of the potential glycosylation site in the 296 amino acids of the S protein. In summary, we illustrated that the attenuated virus represents a promising vaccine candidate.     

Cross-neutralization between vaccine and circulating wild-type mumps viruses in Korea

Mumps is a contagious disease caused by the mumps virus. It can be prevented using mumps vaccines, administered as a measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine. For first and second dose immunization, children aged 12–15 months and 4–6 years have been administered this vaccine since 1997 in Korea. Nevertheless, mumps outbreaks still occur in vaccinated populations worldwide. Hence, immunity against these diseases may be attenuated, or there are antigenic differences between currently available vaccine strains and circulating wild-type viruses. After the introduction of national immunization programs in Korea, mumps cases became sporadic. Viral genotypes F, H, and I have emerged since 1998 whereas the vaccine strains belong to genotype A. Here, we compared the amino acid sequences of the haemagglutinin-neuraminidase (HN) gene from wild-type viruses and the mumps vaccine and measured the cross-neutralization titers between them. We selected the F, H, and I wild-type mumps strains circulating in Korea from 1998 to 2016 and analyzed changes in the amino acid sequence of the protein encoded by the HN gene. We measured mumps virus-specific IgG and rapid focus reduction neutralization test (FRNT) titers in Korean isolates and sera obtained from 50 children aged 1–2 years who had been administered a single dose of MMR vaccine. Analysis of the HN protein sequences disclosed no changes in the glycosylation sites but did reveal 4–5 differences between the Korean isolates and the genotype A vaccine strain in terms of the neutralizing epitope sites on their HN proteins. Post-vaccination FRNT titers were significantly lower against genotypes F, H, and I than they were against genotype A. This finding highlights the possibility of a recurrence of mumps outbreaks in vaccinated populations depending on the degree of genetic conservation of the HN gene. Further research into this issue is needed to prevent the resurgence of mumps.