Working‐correlation‐structure identification in generalized estimating equations

Selecting an appropriate working correlation structure is pertinent to clustered data analysis using generalized estimating equations (GEE) because an inappropriate choice will lead to inefficient parameter estimation. We investigate the well‐known criterion of QIC for selecting a working correlation structure, and have found that performance of the QIC is deteriorated by a term that is theoretically independent of the correlation structures but has to be estimated with an error. This leads us to propose a correlation information criterion (CIC) that substantially improves the QIC performance. Extensive simulation studies indicate that the CIC has remarkable improvement in selecting the correct correlation structures. We also illustrate our findings using a data set from the Madras Longitudinal Schizophrenia Study. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

求和自回归滑动平均模型结合圆分布法分析脑卒中死亡率动态规律

通过1999年1月至2006年12月天津市脑卒中逐月死亡率数据,应用圆分布法探讨脑卒中死亡率的季节分布,动态变化规律,建立监测与预测的时间序列模型.通过模型辨识、参数估计及其检验、白噪声检验、模型的拟合度分析等过程,建立求和自回归滑动平均模型(ARIMA)的季节乘积模型(P,d,q)(P,D,Q)s.脑卒中死亡率以年为周期,一年中1月为高发月份.建立ARIMA(0,1,0)×(0,1,1)12:模型:(1-B)(1-B12)lnx1=0.001+(1-0.537B12)εt.结论:ARIMA乘积模型结合圆分布法是对脑卒中死亡率进行时间序列分析的重要方法;应用该方法可对脑卒中流行趋势及死亡率进行预测,为卫生资源合理分配、公共卫生政策计划制定和防治结果考核提供科学依据.     

枯草杆菌Bacillus sp F26产过氧化氢酶的发酵条件

从内蒙古呼伦贝尔草原的盐碱湖中分离到的一株低度嗜盐嗜碱细菌Bacillus sp F26，能积累高水平过氧化氢酶（CAT）。对Bacillus sp F26发酵产过氧化氢酶的环境与营养条件的研究结果表明，其积累高水平过氧化氢酶的适宜环境条件为：温度37℃，种龄20-22h，接种量5％，装液量50mL／（250mL的摇瓶）。适宜发酵培养基组成（g／L）为：葡萄糖15，牛肉膏10，玉米浆10，酵母膏5，磷酸二氢钾1，氯化镁0．2，氯化钠50，碳酸钠10。采用上述条件进行摇瓶分批发酵实验，发酵20h，过氧化氢酶酶活达到16．32U／mL，细胞干重为4．12g／L。进一步研究发现，在对数生长后期（16h）添加2mmol／L的H2O2可以明显刺激产酶，在5L的发酵罐上进一步以指数速率方式流加H2O2，由于该流加方式可降低H2O2对细胞的毒害作用，过氧化氢酶酶活达到29．89U／mL，与分批发酵相比提高了92．8％。     

兔肝VX2肿瘤模型的建立及影像学研究现状

VX2肿瘤细胞株是一种可移植的肿瘤细胞株,可接种到兔的肝脏、肾脏等部位,建立原位肿瘤动物模型。兔VX2肝癌模型是目前较常用的实验性动物肝癌模型,本文就兔肝VX2肿瘤模型的建立和影像学表现进行综述。     

Is the political system really related to health?

We analyze whether the political system and its stability are related to cross-country differences in health. We apply factor analysis on various national health indicators for a large sample of countries over the period 2000–2005 and use the outcomes of the factor analysis to construct two new health measures, i.e., the health of individuals and the quality of the health care sector. Using a cross-country structural equation model with various economic and demographic control variables, we examine the relationship between the type of regime and political stability on the one hand and health on the other. The political variables and the control variables are measured as averages over the period 1980–1999. Our results suggest that democracy has a positive relationship with the health of individuals, while regime instability has a negative relationship with the health of individuals. Government instability is negatively related to individual health via its link with the quality of the health care sector, while democracy is positively related with individual health through its link with income. Our main findings are confirmed by the results of a panel model and various sensitivity tests.     

DA→LEW大鼠肝脏急性排斥反应模型的技术改进与评价

目的:建立大鼠肝脏移植急性排斥反应模型并改进其手术技巧,对所建模型进行评价。方法:采用近交系雄性DA大鼠60只,Lewis大鼠120只,分为两组,其中A组30例:Lewis大鼠为供体(n=30),Lewis大鼠为受体;B组60例:DA大鼠为供体(n=60),Lewis大鼠为受体。采用改良“二袖套”法建立肝脏移植模型,观察手术成功率、平均存活时间、术后第1、3、5、7和10 d各时相点血清丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT)、总胆红素(TBIL)水平以及移植肝脏的病理学变化。结果:手术成功率为93.3%(84/90);总耗时(90.0±15.0)min;无肝期时间(14.2±2.6)min;平均存活时间A组超过100d,B组(16.2±1.4)d;术后第5 d B组血清ALT和TBIL升高,与A组比较差异非常显著(P<0.01);B组移植肝脏病理检查有明显的排斥反应,而A组没有。结论:DA→LEW(Lewis)大鼠的品系组合是稳定的肝脏移植急性排斥反应模型;通过改进手术技巧提高了手术成功率,为进一步研究提供技术保障。     

盲肠结扎穿刺致豚鼠急性肺损伤动物模型建立

目的 研究败血性急性肺损伤的动物模型，并探讨其在急性肺损伤研究中的意义。方法 用盲肠结扎穿刺(CLP)法的豚鼠急性肺损伤模型，结合动脉血气分析、外周血白细胞计数、肺湿重／干重比值(W／D)及肺组织病理观察。结果 CLP模型中动物的症状和表现缓慢出现，逐渐恶化．最后导致败血性休克，于2d左右出现大量死亡。结论 用盲肠结扎穿刺的方法制作豚鼠急性肺损伤动物模型较大鼠内毒素性休克，表现更类似于人类的肠源性肺损伤，且症状缓慢发生，逐渐恶化，有利于观察和进行各种干预。     

碱性成纤维细胞生长因子在实验性硬脑膜重建中的应用

[目的] 探讨碱性成纤维细胞生长因子( bFGF)在实验性自体筋膜硬脑膜重建中的应用价值.[方法]取 SD大鼠 35只,分成 5组.其中 A组 3只,直接将背部筋膜覆盖在硬膜外, B组 5只,采用自体筋膜硬脑膜重建模型,通过免疫组织化学方法观察这两组大鼠自体筋膜硬脑膜移植的愈合过程及细胞因子 bFGF在其中的表达; C组、 D组、 E组各 9只,分别进行自体筋膜硬脑膜重建, D组加用外源性 bFGF, E组仅用明胶海绵,通过脑脊液漏研究、免疫组织化学方法研究外源性 bFGF对自体筋膜重建硬脑膜愈合过程的影响并用 RT- PCR方法研究内源性 bFGF mRNA的表达情况.[结果] 大鼠自体筋膜移植硬脑膜部位 bFGF表达明显; C、 D、 E组大鼠重建硬脑膜抵抗脑脊液漏压力值( mmH2O)分别为 311± 75, 497± 153, 338± 88,Ⅰ型胶原纤维表达值分别为 4.9± 0.8, 10.9± 1.6, 5.3± 0.9, D组均好于对照组( P< 0.05);内源性 bFGF mRNA的表达没有明显变化.[结论] 在自体筋膜移植硬脑膜的愈合过程中 bFGF可能起了重要的作用;外源性 bFGF处理的大鼠其移植筋膜愈合要好于对照组.     

基于免疫系统非线性模型对中医正邪相争理论和扶正祛邪治则的一个非线性动力学诠释

文中基于免疫系统有关免疫活性细胞或分子与外来抗原相互作用的非线性的动力学模型对中医学正邪相争理论及其扶正祛邪治则进行了新的诠释,提出了新的研究思路。认为:中医学关于外感邪气致病的六经、卫气营血和三焦辨证在本质上是识别抗原与免疫活性细胞或分子相互作用的三种不同的非线性动力学诊断模式,其证相应于这一过程中不同的非线性动力状态,可以用一个或一组非线性动力学方程进行定量描述。一个证常常对应于抗原与免疫活性的细胞或分子非线性动力学相互作用相空间中的一个稳定或不稳定的极限环和混沌,这可以作为证诊断的图形或形象标识。以中医学扶正祛邪的治疗思想为先导,有可能研制出全新靶向的和更有效的治疗传染性疾病的药物。     

Simulation model of renal replacement therapy: predicting future demand in England.

BACKGROUND: The demand for renal replacement therapy (RRT) in England has risen steadily, although from a lower base than many other developed countries. Predicting the future demand for RRT and the impact of factors such as the acceptance rate, transplant supply and patient survival, is required in order to inform the planning of such services. METHODS: A discrete event simulation model estimates the future demand for RRT in England in 2010 for a range of scenarios. The model uses current prevalence and current and projected future acceptance rates, survival rates and the transitions between modalities to predict future patient numbers. National population and mortality data, published literature and data from the UK Renal Registry and UK Transplant, are used to estimate unmet need for RRT, the impact of changing demography and incidence of Type 2 diabetes, patient haemodialysis (HD) survival and transplant supply. RESULTS: By 2010 the predicted prevalence will have increased from about 30,000 in 2000 to between 42 and 51,000 (900-1000 p.m.p.), an average annual growth of 4.5-6%. Changing transplant supply has a small effect on overall numbers but changes the proportion of patients with functioning graft by up to 8%. Even with an optimistic increase in transplant supply (11% p.a. for 5 years), numbers on HD will continue to rise substantially, especially in the elderly. The factors most influencing future patient numbers are the acceptance rate and dialysis survival. CONCLUSION: This model predicts a substantial growth in the RRT population to 2010 to a rate approaching 1000 p.m.p., particularly in the elderly and those on HD, with a steady state not being reached for at least 25 years.