德尔菲法构建学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系

目的 构建学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系,为指导学生传染病症状监测预警工作提供科学依据。方法 在文献查阅基础上,通过两轮德尔菲法专家咨询筛选学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标,并通过层次分析法和专家评分法确立指标权重,构建指标体系。结果 32位专家两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为87.5%(28/32)和100.0%(28/28),专家平均权威系数(Cr)为0.792,第二轮咨询专家协调系数为0.245(χ²=459.416,P<0.001),经指标筛选,形成由6项一级指标、19项二级指标和43项三级指标构成的学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系。6项一级指标权重从高到低依次为信息质量(0.2281)、学校管理(0.2123)、疾控管理(0.1927)、预警信息管理(0.1450)、系统维护(0.2)和预警效果评价(0.1108)。结论 本研究建立了学生传染病症状监测质量控制和预警效果评价指标体系,本体系专家积极程度和权威程度较高,意见趋于一致,可为国内学生传染病症状监测工作提供参考。     

2015—2020年湖南省感染性腹泻病原学及分子流行病学特征分析

目的 了解湖南省感染性腹泻的病原谱,追踪其分子流行病学演变趋势,为感染性腹泻的综合防治提供科学依据。 方法 通过哨点监测结合暴发疫情监测的方法,收集2015—2020年湖南省感染性腹泻标本,对细菌病原采用细菌培养、生化鉴定进行检测;对病毒病原采用分子生物学方法进行分型鉴定,并对部分PCR阳性标本进行序列测定。 结果 哨点医院主动监测的总阳性率为35.61%,病毒检出率20.26%高于细菌检出率11.26%,混合病原感染检出率为4.09%。细菌病原谱以沙门菌O∶4群鼠伤寒型为主,病毒病原谱以轮状病毒A组G9P[8]型和诺如病毒GⅡ.4Sydney[P31]型感染为主。不同监测、不同年份的病原谱构成及其基因型变迁规律各不相同:哨点医院监测细菌阳性率低而病毒阳性率高时,诺如暴发疫情随之增加;暴发疫情中诺如病毒感染为86.78%,其中69.43%为GⅡ型感染,12.42%为GⅠ型感染,混合感染占3.03%。诺如病毒暴发疫情具有明显季节性,优势基因型为GⅡ.2[P16]占42.97%。 结论 2015—2020年湖南省感染性腹泻病毒类病原体高于细菌类,鼠伤寒沙门菌、A组轮状病毒G9P[8]和诺如病毒GⅡ.4 Sydney [P31]是最主要的病原体和优势血清/基因型;GⅡ.2 [P16]是诺如病毒暴发流行的优势基因型;通过连续哨点监测的数据支持,提前为暴发疫情做好了防控,促成了湖南省感染性腹泻发病率的平稳下降。     

Genomic Analysis of Novel Poxvirus Brazilian Porcupinepox Virus,Brazil, 2019

We obtained the complete sequence of a novel poxvirus, tentatively named Brazilian porcupinepox virus, from a wild porcupine (Coendou prehensilis) in Brazil that had skin and internal lesions characteristic of poxvirus infection. The impact of this lethal poxvirus on the survival of this species and its potential zoonotic importance remain to be investigated.     

SARS-CoV-2 Serial Interval Variation,Montana, USA,March 1–July 31, 2020

We report mean severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 serial intervals for Montana, USA, from 583 transmission pairs; infectors’ symptom onset dates occurred during March 1–July 31, 2020. Our estimate was 5.68 (95% CI 5.27–6.08) days, SD 4.77 (95% CI 4.33–5.19) days. Subperiod estimates varied temporally by nonpharmaceutical intervention type and fluctuating incidence.     

SARS-CoV-2对生育的影响

近年严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2（severe acute respiratory syndrome corona virus 2,SARS-CoV-2）大流行对人类健康造成了威胁。研究表明,SARS-CoV-2对人类生育能力有潜在影响,对男性生育力的影响远大于女性。目前研究表明接种疫苗可能不会对人类的生育能力存在不利影响。感染SARS-CoV-2会不会发生性传播、垂直传播及母婴传播,从而对下一代产生影响,目前暂不清楚。尚需要从生殖医学科、传染病学科角度探讨SARS-CoV-2及其疫苗对生育的影响,并讨论可能存在的性传播、垂直传播和母婴传播,以提高对SARS-CoV-2及其疫苗的认识。     

Cytomegalovirus DNAemia and risk of mortality in allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation: Analysis from the Spanish Hematopoietic Transplantation and Cell Therapy Group

The net impact of cytomegalovirus (CMV) DNAemia on overall mortality (OM) and nonrelapse mortality (NRM) following allogeneic hematopoietic stem cell transplantation (allo-HSCT) remains a matter of debate. This was a retrospective, multicenter, noninterventional study finally including 749 patients. CMV DNA monitoring was conducted by real-time polymerase chain reaction (PCR) assays. Clinical outcomes of interest were OM and NRM through day 365 after allo-HSCT. The cumulative incidence of CMV DNAemia in this cohort was 52.6%. A total of 306 out of 382 patients with CMV DNAemia received preemptive antiviral therapy (PET). PET use for CMV DNAemia, but not the occurrence of CMV DNAemia, taken as a qualitative variable, was associated with increased OM and NRM in univariate but not in adjusted models. A subcohort analysis including patients monitored by the COBAS Ampliprep/COBAS Taqman CMV Test showed that OM and NRM were comparable in patients in whom either low or high plasma CMV DNA threshold (<500 vs ≥500 IU/mL) was used for PET initiation. In conclusion, CMV DNAemia was not associated with increased OM and NRM in allo-HSCT recipients. The potential impact of PET use on mortality was not proven but merits further research.     

Early steroid withdrawal in HIV-infected kidney transplant recipients: Utilization and outcomes

Kidney transplant (KT) outcomes for HIV-infected (HIV+) persons are excellent, yet acute rejection (AR) is common and optimal immunosuppressive regimens remain unclear. Early steroid withdrawal (ESW) is associated with AR in other populations, but its utilization and impact are unknown in HIV+ KT. Using SRTR, we identified 1225 HIV+ KT recipients between January 1, 2000, and December 31, 2017, without AR, graft failure, or mortality during KT admission, and compared those with ESW with those with steroid continuation (SC). We quantified associations between ESW and AR using multivariable logistic regression and interval-censored survival analysis, as well as with graft failure and mortality using Cox regression, adjusting for donor, recipient, and immunologic factors. ESW utilization was 20.4%, with more zero HLA mismatch (8% vs 4%), living donors (26% vs 20%), and lymphodepleting induction (64% vs 46%) compared to the SC group. ESW utilization varied widely across 129 centers, with less use at high- versus moderate-volume centers (6% vs 21%, P < .001). AR was more common with ESW by 1 year (18.4% vs 12.3%; aOR: _1.081.61_2.41, P = .04) and over the study period (aHR: _1.021.39_1.90, P = .03), without difference in death-censored graft failure (aHR _0.600.91_1.36, P = .33) or mortality (aHR: _0.751.15_1.77, P = .45). To reduce AR after HIV+ KT, tailoring of ESW utilization is reasonable.     

Cost-effectiveness of using hepatitis C viremic hearts for transplantation into HCV-negative recipients

Outcomes following hepatitis C virus (HCV)-viremic heart transplantation into HCV-negative recipients with HCV treatment are good. We assessed cost-effectiveness between cohorts of transplant recipients willing and unwilling to receive HCV-viremic hearts. Markov model simulated long-term outcomes among HCV-negative patients on the transplant waitlist. We compared costs (2018 USD) and health outcomes (quality-adjusted life-years, QALYs) between cohorts willing to accept any heart and those willing to accept only HCV-negative hearts. We assumed 4.9% HCV-viremic donor prevalence. Patients receiving HCV-viremic hearts were treated, assuming $39 600/treatment with 95% cure. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were compared to a $100 000/QALY gained willingness-to-pay threshold. Sensitivity analyses included stratification by blood type or region and potential negative consequences of receipt of HCV-viremic hearts. Compared to accepting only HCV-negative hearts, accepting any heart gained 0.14 life-years and 0.11 QALYs, while increasing costs by $9418/patient. Accepting any heart was cost effective (ICER $85 602/QALY gained). Results were robust to all transplant regions and blood types, except type AB. Accepting any heart remained cost effective provided posttransplant mortality and costs among those receiving HCV-viremic hearts were not >7% higher compared to HCV-negative hearts. Willingness to accept HCV-viremic hearts for transplantation into HCV-negative recipients is cost effective and improves clinical outcomes.     

The burden of cutaneous disease in solid organ transplant recipients of color

Organ transplant recipients (OTRs) are at increased risk of cutaneous malignancy. Skin disorders in OTRs of color (OTRoC) have rarely been systematically assessed. We aimed to ascertain the burden of skin disease encountered in OTRoC by prospectively collecting data from OTRs attending 2 posttransplant skin surveillance clinics: 1 in London, UK and 1 in Philadelphia, USA. Retrospective review of all dermatological diagnoses was performed. Data from 1766 OTRs were analyzed: 1024 (58%) white, 376 (21%) black, 261 (15%) Asian, 57 (3%) Middle Eastern/Mediterranean (ME/M), and 48 (2.7%) Hispanic; and 1128 (64%) male. Viral infections affected 45.1% of OTRs, and were more common in white and ME/M patients (P < .001). Fungal infections affected 28.1% and were more common in ME/M patients (P < .001). Inflammatory skin disease affected 24.5%, and was most common in black patients (P < .001). In addition, 26.4% of patients developed skin cancer. There was an increased risk of skin cancer in white vs nonwhite OTRs (HR 4.4, 95% CI 3.5-5.7, P < .001): keratinocyte cancers were more common in white OTRs (P < .001) and Kaposi sarcoma was more common in black OTRs (P < .001). These data support the need for programs that promote targeted dermatology surveillance for all OTRs, regardless of race/ethnicity or country of origin.