Scenarios of future lung cancer incidence by educational level: Modelling study in Denmark

ObjectiveTo model future trends in lung cancer incidence in Denmark by education under different scenarios for cigarette smoking.MethodsLung cancer incidence until 2050 was modelled using Prevent software. We estimated lung cancer incidence under a baseline scenario and under four alternative scenarios for smoking reduction: decreasing initiation rates among the young, increasing cessation rates among smokers, a scenario combining both changes and a levelling-up scenario in which people with low and medium levels of education acquired the smoking prevalence of the highly educated. Danish National Health Interview Surveys (1987–2005) and cancer registry data combined with individual education status from Statistics Denmark were used for empirical input.ResultsUnder the baseline scenario, lung cancer rates are expected to decrease for most educational groups during the next few decades, but educational inequalities will increase further. Under the alternative scenarios, an additional decrease in lung cancer rates will be observed from 2030 onwards, but only from 2050 onwards it will be observed under the initiation scenario. The cessation and the combined scenarios show the largest decrease in lung cancer rates for all educational groups. However, in none of these scenarios would the relative differences between educational groups be reduced. A modest decrease in these inequalities will be observed under the levelling-up scenario.DiscussionOur analyses show that relative inequalities in lung cancer incidence rates will tend to increase. They may be reduced to a small extent if the smoking prevalence of people with a low level of education was to converge towards those more highly educated people. An important decrease in lung cancer rates will be observed in all educational groups, however, especially when focusing on both initiation and cessation strategies.     

Principal and teacher reports of strategies to enforce anti-tobacco policies in Florida middle and high schools

This study describes anti-tobacco policies implemented by middle and high schools in Florida. All schools had in place formal anti-tobacco policies but implementation of those policies was more rigorous at the middle school level. Principals and tobacco use prevention education teachers reported the formal and informal strategies used to enforce their school's anti-tobacco policies. Punitive enforcement strategies were more commonly reported than nonpunitive strategies. Enforcement strategies were significantly associated with several features of school settings including number of supports for teachers' efforts, teachers' perceptions of program success, and training opportunities for teachers. Middle school staff reported using significantly more enforcement strategies than high school staff, and their strategies were more likely to be associated with school context variables. Implications of these findings for the maintenance of anti-tobacco programs in secondary schools are discussed.     

Prevalence of Tobacco Use Among Junior High and Senior High School Students in Taiwan

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use is a major preventable cause of death in the world. This article describes and compares tobacco use prevalence for students attending junior high schools and senior high schools in Taiwan. METHODS: This report uses data from the Global Youth Tobacco Survey (GYTS) completed among 4689 junior high school students and 4426 senior high school students in Taiwan in 2004‐2005. The GYTS uses a 2‐stage sampling design to produce nationally representative data for junior and senior high students in general and vocational schools. RESULTS: Higher smoking prevalence was observed among senior high (10.1% general schools and 15.9% vocational schools) than junior high (5.5%) school students. Smoking prevalence of girls in junior high (3.2%) and senior high schools (4.6% general and 11.1% vocational) was almost as high or higher than adult females’ (4.3%) smoking rates. The pattern of smoking intensity across school years and type of school shows that the percentage of smokers who were experimenters (47.1%) was higher in junior high school and the percentage of smokers who were regular/established smokers (over 50%) was higher in senior high school. CONCLUSIONS: Smoking prevalence described in this report shows that there are challenges facing the tobacco prevention and control program in Taiwan. The findings suggest that schools should increase their smoking initiation prevention efforts and make available cessation programs and counseling to help students quit smoking. If effective youth tobacco control programs are not developed and implemented in Taiwan, future morbidity and mortality attributed to tobacco will surely increase, especially among women.     

Reasons for quitting smoking in young adult cigarette smokers

BackgroundAlthough most young adult smokers want to quit smoking, few can do so successfully. Increased understanding of reasons to quit in this age group could help tailor interventions, but few studies document reasons to quit in young adults or examine reasons to quit by smoker characteristics.MethodsIn 2011–12, 311 current smokers (age 22–28, M = 24.1; 48.9% male, 51.1% female; 50.4% daily smokers) from the Nicotine Dependence in Teens Study completed the Adolescent Reasons for Quitting scale. We assessed differences in the importance of 15 reasons to quit by sex, education, smoking frequency, quit attempt in the past year, perceived difficulty in quitting, and motivation to quit. We also examined differences between participants who discounted the importance of long-term health risks and those who acknowledged such risks.ResultsConcerns about getting sick or still smoking when older were considered very important by > 70% of participants. Median scores were higher among daily smokers, those who had tried to quit or who expressed difficulty quitting, and those with strong motivation to quit. Discounters (14.5% of participants) were primarily nondaily, low-consumption smokers. Their Fagerström Test for Nicotine Dependence scores did not differ from non-discounters', and 11% (vs. 35.7% of non-discounters) were ICD-10 tobacco dependent.ConclusionsNovel smoking cessation interventions are needed to help young adult smokers quit by capitalizing on their health concerns. Discounters may need educational intervention to better understand the impact of even “light” smoking on their health before or in conjunction with quit interventions.     

Emotion dysregulation explains the relation between insomnia symptoms and negative reinforcement smoking cognitions among daily smokers

IntroductionInsomnia co-occurs with smoking. However, mechanisms that may explain their comorbidity are not well known.MethodThe present study tested the hypothesis that insomnia would exert an indirect effect on negative reinforcement smoking processes via emotion dysregulation among 126 adult non-treatment seeking daily smokers (55 females; M_age = 44.1 years, SD = 9.72). Negative reinforcement smoking processes included negative reinforcement smoking outcome expectancies, negative reinforcement smoking motives, and two negative expectancies from brief smoking abstinence (somatic symptoms and harmful consequences).ResultsInsomnia symptoms yielded a significant indirect effect through emotion dysregulation for negative reinforcement smoking outcome expectancies, negative reinforcement smoking motives, and harmful consequences expectancies from brief smoking abstinence. In contrast to prediction, however, insomnia was not associated with somatic symptom expectancies from brief smoking abstinence through emotion dysregulation.ConclusionsThese data may suggest that the indirect effect of emotion dysregulation is more relevant to cognitive-affective negative reinforcement processes rather than somatic states. Overall, the present findings contribute to a growing body of literature linking emotion dysregulation as an explanatory mechanism for insomnia and smoking and uniquely extend such work to an array of clinically significant negative reinforcement smoking processes.     

中国四大慢性病死亡率可持续发展目标实现的预测研究

目的通过中国30～70岁居民1990-2019年心脑血管疾病、糖尿病、慢性呼吸系统疾病和癌症四大慢性病死亡趋势, 预测2030年我国四大慢性病实现可持续发展目标(SDGs)3.4.1的情况。方法基于2019年全球疾病负担研究中国四大慢性病1990-2019年疾病负担数据, 利用年龄-时期-队列的贝叶斯模型预测2020-2030年我国慢性病死亡情况及2030年SDGs 3.4.1的实现情况。结果 1990-2019年我国四大慢性病年龄标化死亡率(ASR)呈下降趋势, 预测我国30～70岁居民四大慢性病死亡数将由2020年的296.12万例增加至2030年的318.50万例, ASR将由2020年的308.49/10万下降至2030年的277.80/10万, 与2015年的330.46/10万相比, 2030年仅下降15.94%, 其中男性下降18.73%, 女性下降14.31%。另外心脑血管疾病下降25.09%, 癌症下降4.76%, 慢性呼吸系统疾病下降37.21%, 而糖尿病基本不变。结论我国30～70岁居民1990-2019年四大慢性病ASR呈下降趋势, 但按目前的下降速度至203...     

上海市初中生2013年与2019年烟草流行情况比较分析

目的 了解上海市初中生烟草流行情况和变化趋势,探索初中生吸烟行为的影响因素,为制定青少年控烟干预策略提供数据支持和科学依据。方法 采用多阶段分层整群随机抽样的方法,分别于2013年抽取8个区,2019年抽取10个区,调查上海市初中在校学生的烟草流行情况。采用χ²检验比较2次调查的烟草流行率,多因素logistic回归分析相关影响因素。结果 2019年上海市初中生现在吸烟率为0.6%,尝试吸烟率为2.9%,均低于2013年水平（分别为0.7%和6.9%）;2019年现在电子烟使用率（0.6%）较2013年无明显变化（0.6%）;2019年听说过电子烟的比例（78.4%）显著高于2013年水平（47.2%）;2019年初中生在家中、室内公共场所、室外公共场所、公共交通工具二手烟暴露率为72.5%,略低于2013年水平（73.0%）,以上比较均差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。多因素logistic回归分析结果显示,2019年,好朋友吸烟（OR=27.381,95%CI：12.037~62.287）、校内看到有人吸烟（OR=2.477,95%CI：1.155~5.312）、认为二手烟可能没有危害（与认为二手烟肯定有危害相比,OR=8.471,95%CI：1.464~49.005）的初中生现在吸烟率更高。≥15岁（与≤12岁相比,OR=8.688,95%CI：1.922~39.266）、室外二手烟暴露（OR=8.608,95%CI：1.048~70.692）、好朋友吸烟（OR=8.115,95%CI：1.754~37.545）的初中生现在电子烟使用率更高,认为吸烟使社交更不舒服［与认为吸烟使社交更舒服相比（OR=0.105,95%CI：0.018~0.615）］的初中生现在电子烟使用率更低,以上均差异有统计学意义（P<0.05）。结论 上海市初中生烟草流行情况在近年保持较低水平,但二手烟暴露情况不容乐观。初中生吸烟行为与个人对烟草的态度认知、二手烟暴露、同伴吸烟及学校控烟状况密切相关,应从多维度开展预防和干预,切实保护青少年远离烟草危害。