SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

Comparative Study of Modified Posterior Operation to Treat Kümmell's Disease

The present study aimed at examining the curative effect of modified posterior operation on treatment of Kümmell''s disease.About 30 patients of Kümmell''s disease with complete image and clinical data treated during June 2004 to July 2013 were conducted with anterior and posterior approaches, respectively. Kyphotic Cobb angle, fractured vertebra wedge angle, and the anterior and posterior heights of fractured vertebra were all measured through x-ray before and after operation, and the pain visual analog scale (VAS) was determined for evaluating the effect of operations. The injury and restoration of neurological function were assessed using Frankel classification.Patients in group A were treated with anterior operation, whereas group B was posterior operation. Postoperatively, VAS score, kyphotic Cobb angle, anterior vertebra height, and pathologic vertebra wedge angle were all significantly improved in patients with Kümmell''s disease receiving modified posterior operation (group B). Similar results were also observed in patients with anterior operation. The improvement of VAS and correction rate of kyphotic Cobb angle indicated equivalent effects of posterior and anterior operations. Meanwhile, alleviated neurological function damage was observed in 2 groups. Relevant factor analysis illustrated that there was no significant correlation of the severity and improvement rate of pain symptoms with age, medical history, anterior and posterior vertebra heights, kyphotic Cobb angle, and pathological vertebra wedge angle.Compared with traditional anterior approach, modified posterior operation, adopting transpedicular vertebral body grafting combined with vertebral pedicle screw fixation, could produce equivalent effects on kyphosis correction, pain relief, and improvement of neurological function in patients with Kümmell''s disease.     

中国九市四至七岁儿童乳恒牙替换及其与体格生长的相关性分析

目的探讨中国9个城市(简称九市)4~7岁儿童乳恒牙替换及其与体格生长的关系,分析恒牙发育长期变化趋势。方法采用分层整群抽样的方法,以4~7岁儿童为调查对象,于2015年6—10月在北京、哈尔滨、西安(北片),上海、南京、武汉(中片),广州、福州、昆明(南片)九市进行横断面调查,共37973名儿童,其中男19035名,女18938名。6岁以下每6个月为1组,6~<7岁1岁为1组。现场检查乳牙脱落、恒牙萌出情况,测量身高、体重等,并依据2009年中国儿童生长标准计算体格指标Z分值。采用Probit概率单位回归方法计算换牙年龄。不同性别、地区、年龄分组组间比较采用χ2检验或t检验。并利用1995年中国九市儿童体格发育调查中乳恒牙替换相关数据,分析恒牙发育的长期变化趋势。结果九市37973名儿童随着年龄增长换牙率逐渐增加,从4.0~<4.5岁的0.6%(42/7568)增长至5.5~<6.0岁的30.3%(2295/7583),6.0~<7.0岁达到74.5%(5680/7627)。除4.0~4.5岁组外,无论城郊男童换牙率均低于女童(P均<0.05);城区换牙率(男5.5~<6.0岁、女4.5~<5.0岁组之后)略高于郊区,如6.0~<7.0岁组男童城郊分别为74.2%(1427/1924)、69.2%(1305/1885)(χ2=11.446,P<0.01)。九市儿童换牙年龄为6.00(95%CI:5.98~6.01)岁。换牙年龄的第3~97百分位变化范围为4.88~7.11岁。女童中位换牙年龄(5.94岁)早于男童(6.06岁);城区(5.94岁)早于郊区(6.05岁);北片(5.97岁)、中片地区(5.97岁)略早于南片地区(6.05岁)。已换牙儿童体重、身高、体质指数Z分值均高于未换牙儿童(0.35±1.17比0.03±1.13、0.32±1.00比0.03±1.02、0.23±1.16比0.04±1.13,t=20.81、21.67、12.09,P均<0.05)。与1995年相比,2015年5.0岁以后儿童换牙率明显提高,如城区男童6.0~<7.0岁组1995年为63.8%(1146/1796),2015年提高至74.2%(1427/1924)(χ2=46.748,P<0.01);中位换牙年龄2015年较1995年提前0.24岁。结论九市4~7岁儿童换牙年龄女童早于男童,城区早于郊区,北、中片早于南片地区。换牙早晚与体格生长水平有关。近20年换牙年龄存在小幅提前趋势。     

Radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for predicting liver failure

BACKGROUND Postoperative liver failure is the most severe complication in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) after major hepatectomy. Current available clinical indexes predicting postoperative residual liver function are not sufficiently accurate.AIM To determine a radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for predicting liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.METHODS For this retrospective study, a radiomics-based model was developed based on preoperative hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance images in 101 patients with HCC between June 2012 and June 2018. Sixty-one radiomic features were extracted from hepatobiliary phase images and selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to construct a radiomics signature. A clinical prediction model, and radiomics-based model incorporating significant clinical indexes and radiomics signature were built using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The integrated radiomics-based model was presented as a radiomics nomogram. The performances of clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model for predicting post-operative liver failure were determined using receiver operating characteristics curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses.RESULTS Five radiomics features from hepatobiliary phase images were selected to construct the radiomics signature. The clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model incorporating indocyanine green clearance rate at 15 min and radiomics signature showed favorable performance for predicting postoperative liver failure(area under the curve: 0.809-0.894). The radiomics-based model achieved the highest performance for predicting liver failure(area under the curve: 0.894; 95%CI: 0.823-0.964). The integrated discrimination improvement analysis showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of liver failure prediction when radiomics signature was added to the clinical prediction model(integrated discrimination improvement = 0.117, P =0.002). The calibration curve and an insignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic(P = 0.841) demonstrated good calibration of the radiomics-based model. The decision curve analysis showed that patients would benefit more from a radiomics-based prediction model than from a clinical prediction model and radiomics signature alone.CONCLUSION A radiomics-based model of preoperative gadoxetic acid–enhanced MRI can be used to predict liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.     

温阳解毒化瘀颗粒对肝衰竭IETM大鼠TLR4 mRNA,TNF-α及肝细胞凋亡的影响

目的:研究Toll样受体4(TLR4) mRNA及其下游炎性因子肿瘤坏死因子-α(TNF-α)与肝衰竭肠源性内毒素血症(IETM)大鼠肝细胞凋亡的关系,并探索温阳解毒化瘀颗粒对内毒素介导的肝细胞凋亡的调控机制。方法:SPF级雄性SD大鼠85只,随机分为正常组,模型组,TLR4单克隆抗体组和温阳解毒化瘀颗粒组(8.925 g·kg^-1)。采用D-半乳糖胺(D-Gal)腹腔注射建立肝衰竭IETM模型,TLR4单克隆抗体组和温阳解毒化瘀颗粒组在造模前5 d给予温阳解毒化瘀颗粒溶液灌胃,正常组、模型组以等容积蒸馏水代替,直至处死。各组分别在24,48,72 h随机处死大鼠并采集标本。检测24,48,72 h各组时间点血清丙氨酸氨基转移酶(ALT),天门冬氨酸氨基转移酶(AST)水平,苏木素-伊红(HE)染色观察肝组织病理变化,实时荧光定量聚合酶链式反应(Real-time PCR)检测肝组织TLR4 mRNA表达,酶联免疫吸附测定法(ELISA)检测肝组织TNF-α表达,流式细胞仪检测肝细胞凋亡率。结果:与正常组比较,模型组ALT,AST升高,肝组织病理损伤程度明显加重,TLR4mRNA,TNF-α表达均增高(P<0.05,P<0.01),肝细胞凋亡率明显上升(P<0.05,P<0.01);与模型组比较,温阳解毒化瘀颗粒组ALT,AST显著降低(P<0.01),肝组织病理损伤程度明显减轻(P<0.05),TLR4 mRNA,TNF-α表达显著下降(P<0.01),肝细胞凋亡率亦显著降低(P<0.01)。结论:TLR4 mRNA,TNF-α在肝衰竭时与肝细胞凋亡呈正相关,温阳解毒化瘀颗粒能够改善肝衰竭IETM大鼠肝功能,减轻肝细胞损伤,减少肝细胞凋亡,其机制可能与其下调肝脏TLR4 mRNA表达,抑制TNF-α释放,降低肝细胞凋亡率有关。     

甲状腺疾病患者血清 Tg-CIC 中 Tg-Ab 水平检测及相关临床研究

目的　对血清甲状腺球蛋白免疫复合物 (thyroglobulin circulating immune complex, Tg-CIC) 中抗甲状腺球蛋白抗体 (anti-thyroglobulin antibody, Tg-Ab) 含量检测，探讨 Tg-CIC 在甲状腺疾病中的临床以及流行病学意义。方法　收集甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 187 例，每例血清标本分为两组 ( 实验组和空白对照组 )，采用免疫复合物解离专利技术对甲状腺疾病患者血清标本 Tg-CIC 进行分离、解离，通过检测 Tg-CIC 解离后的 Tg-Ab 含量来间接反映甲状腺疾病患者血清中Tg-CIC 水平，按照不同的甲状腺疾病进行分组并对实验结果分析讨论。结果　不同甲状腺患者血清中 Tg-CIC 总阳性率达 92.51%，不同甲状腺疾病血清中 Tg-CIC 的阳性率差异无统计学意义 (χ?=2.917, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义 (H=3.882, P>0.05)，不同甲状腺疾病患者间血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量差异无统计学意义(H=5.5842, P>0.05)。不同甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的 Tg-Ab 含量呈正相关 (P<0.05)，甲状腺功能减退、甲状腺肿瘤患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 的含量与血清 CIC 中的Tg-Ab 含量不相关 (P>0.05)。结论　在甲状腺疾病患者血清中，大部分可检出 Tg-CIC，与疾病类型无关。而甲状腺疾病患者中，甲状腺功能亢进、甲状腺炎以及甲状腺结节患者血清游离 Tg-Ab 含量与血清 CIC 中 Tg-Ab 含量存在相关性，为我们进一步了解 Tg-CIC 与甲状腺疾病的发生、发展的相关性研究奠定了基础，提供了新的研究视角。