天干岁运与北京地区180年实际降水变化的吻合性研究

目的:以"定性"和"定量"的方法研究天干岁运与北京地区180年实际降水变化是否吻合。方法:对北京地区180年降水数据采用"定性"和"定量"两种方法进行比较:第一,按"十天干"、"五运"和"太过不及"模式将180年各自归类,计算出三种模式的年平均降水量均值;第二,定性比较:三种模式的年降水量均值高于180年年降水量均值为湿,低于则为燥;第三,定量比较:由于三种模式的年降水量均值数据均为非正态分布资料,采用非参数检验的Kruskal-Wallis H检验方法进行统计比较。结果:天干岁运与北京地区180年实际降水量变化相比较,定性吻合,定量不吻合,其降水量变化差异没有统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:干支运气所推算出气候变化模式在定性(燥湿之性)方面是有意义的,但无定量(燥湿差异)的统计学意义。

The anastomosis Research of the Heavenly Stems with Beijing Area Actual Precipitation Changes for 180 Years

Objective： with ＂Qualitative＂ and ＂ quantitative＂ method research of the Heavenly Stems agreement with Beijing actual precipitation changes for 180 years. Methods： In the Beijing area 180 years the precipitation data using ＂ qualitative＂ and ＂quantitative＂ two methods comparison. First,click ＂ten Heavenly Stems ＂,＂ Five Movements＂ and ＂ Too much and less＂ model will be 180 years their classification, and calculates the annual average precipitation of three modes ; Second, qualitative comparison ： the annual average precipitation of the three modes higher than the average annu- al precipitation of 180 years,mean for damp, below is dry; Third, Quantitative comparison： because the annual precipitation data in three modes are non - normally distributed data, using the Kruskal - Wallis H method for comparisons of non -parametric tests. Results ： The Heavent~ Stems and 180 years of actual precipitation changes of the Beijing area compared qualitatively consistent,quantitative do not coincide, the precipitation changes were not statistically significant （ P 〉 0. 05）. Conclusion： The Heavenly Stems have calculated that climate change models in qualitative （damp and dry） is correct,but no quantitative （precipitation difference） statistical significance.