| 利用数学模型预测季节性传染病发病率的探讨 |
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| 引用本文： | 方华.利用数学模型预测季节性传染病发病率的探讨[J].中华流行病学杂志,1993,14(5):287-290. |
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| 作者姓名： | 方华 |
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| 作者单位： | 北京铁路局中心卫生防疫站 100038 |
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| 摘 要： | 笔者对１９８１－１９９１年北京铁路局北京地区传染病报表进行统计分析，运用数学模型对痢疾各季度发病率进行１９９２年预测，通过精度分析选我为理想的预测模型，以便于季节性传染病防治工作的利用。
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| 关 键 词： | 数学模型 传染病 发病率 |
| 收稿时间： | 1993/1/30 0:00:00 |
Application of the Mathematical Model to Forecast the Incidence Rates of Seasonal Infectious Diseases |
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| Fang Hua.Application of the Mathematical Model to Forecast the Incidence Rates of Seasonal Infectious Diseases[J].Chinese Journal of Epidemiology,1993,14(5):287-290. |
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| Authors: | Fang Hua |
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| Institution: | Beijing Railway Hygiene and Epidemic Prevention Station, Beijing 100038 |
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| Abstract: | The incidence rates of infectious diseases were selected and analysed according to data from the Beijing Railway Area during 1981~1991. We put forward the mathematical model to forecast the incidence rate of dysentery each quarter in 1992. The best mathematical model was selected from analysis of precision, and very useful in the prevention and treatment of seasonal infectious diseases. |
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| Keywords: | Mathematical model Infectious diseases Incidence rate |
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