Bayesian consensus clustering for multivariate longitudinal data

In clinical and epidemiological studies, there is a growing interest in studying the heterogeneity among patients based on longitudinal characteristics to identify subtypes of the study population. Compared to clustering a single longitudinal marker, simultaneously clustering multiple longitudinal markers allow additional information to be incorporated into the clustering process, which reveals co-existing longitudinal patterns and generates deeper biological insight. In the current study, we propose a Bayesian consensus clustering (BCC) model for multivariate longitudinal data. Instead of arriving at a single overall clustering, the proposed model allows each marker to follow marker-specific local clustering and these local clusterings are aggregated to find a global (consensus) clustering. To estimate the posterior distribution of model parameters, a Gibbs sampling algorithm is proposed. We apply our proposed model to the primary biliary cirrhosis study to identify patient subtypes that may be associated with their prognosis. We also perform simulation studies to compare the clustering performance between the proposed model and existing models under several scenarios. The results demonstrate that the proposed BCC model serves as a useful tool for clustering multivariate longitudinal data.     

Prolyl and lysyl hydroxylases in collagen synthesis

Collagens are the most abundant proteins in the extracellular matrix. They provide a framework to build organs and tissues and give structural support to make them resistant to mechanical load and forces. Several intra‐ and extracellular modifications are needed to make functional collagen molecules, intracellular post‐translational modifications of proline and lysine residues having key roles in this. In this article, we provide a review on the enzymes responsible for the proline and lysine modifications, that is collagen prolyl 4‐hydroxylases, 3‐hydroxylases and lysyl hydroxylases, and discuss their biological functions and involvement in diseases.     

Efficacy and safety of transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) created using covered stents of different diameters: A systematic review and meta-analysis

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to make a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the stent diameter (8 mm vs. 10 mm) that conveys better safety and clinical efficacy for transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS).Materials and methodsFour databases were used to identify clinical trials published from inception until March 2020. Data were extracted to estimate and compare one-year and three-year overall survivals, hepatic encephalopathy, variceal rebleeding, and shunt dysfunction rates between patients with 8 mm covered stents and those with 10 mm covered stents.ResultsFive eligible studies were selected, which included 489 patients (316 men, 173 women). The 8 mm covered stent group had higher efficacy regarding one-year or three-year overall survival (odds ratio [OR], 2.88; P = 0.003) and (OR, 1.81; P = 0.04) and lower hepatic encephalopathy (OR, 0.69; P = 0.04) compared with 10 mm covered stent group. There were no significant differences in variceal rebleeding rate (OR 0.80; P = 0.67). However, shunt dysfunction was lower in 10 mm covered stent group (OR, 2.26; P = 0.003).ConclusionsOur results suggest that the use of 8 mm covered stents should be preferred to that of 10 mm covered stents for TIPS placement when portal pressure is frequently monitored.     

Role of surgical treatments in high-grade or advanced gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms

Over the last 40 years, the incidence and prevalence of gastroenteropancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms (GEP-NENs) have continued to increase. Compared to other epithelial neoplasms in the same organ, GEP-NENs exhibit indolent biological behavior, resulting in more chances to undergo surgery. However, the role of surgery in high-grade or advanced GEP-NENs is still controversial. Surgery is associated with survival improvement of well-differentiated high-grade GEP-NENs, whereas poorly differentiated GEP-NENs that may benefit from resection require careful selection based on Ki67 and other tissue biomarkers. Additionally, surgery also plays an important role in locally advanced and metastatic disease. For locally advanced GEP-NENs, isolated major vascular involvement is no longer an absolute contraindication. In the setting of metastatic GEP-NENs, radical intended surgery is recommended for patients with low-grade and resectable metastases. For unresectable metastatic disease, a variety of surgical approaches, including cytoreduction of liver metastasis, liver transplantation, and surgery after neoadjuvant treatment, show survival benefits. Primary tumor resection in GEP-NENs with unresectable metastatic disease is associated with symptom control, prolonged survival, and improved sensitivity toward systemic therapies. Although there is no established neoadjuvant or adjuvant strategy, increasing attention has been given to this emerging research area. Some studies have reported that neoadjuvant therapy effectively reduces tumor burden, improves the effectiveness of subsequent surgery, and decreases surgical complications.     

我国家庭医生签约服务政策执行的制约因素与优化路径：基于史密斯政策执行过程模型

深化家庭医生签约服务是深化医药卫生体制改革、强化基层医疗卫生服务、实现"健康中国"战略目标的重要选择，也是当前更好维护人民群众健康的重要途径。为有效推进签约服务工作，国家陆续推出各项政策，全国各地也在积极进行实践探索，成效明显。但是，签约服务仍面临诸多问题，其中"执行难"是签约服务深度推进的一大困境。通过史密斯政策执行过程模型，结合签约服务政策执行过程，发现签约服务仍存在法治性不足、政策执行人员水平不高、激励不足、政策环境影响等诸多制约因素。因此，需要从法律和制度方面进行顶层设计、提升执行人员素质和职业认同、建立医患互信、优化政策执行环境等角度进行政策创新，探索家庭医生签约服务可持续发展的路径。     

Deepm5C: A deep-learning-based hybrid framework for identifying human RNA N5-methylcytosine sites using a stacking strategy

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Predicting Survival for Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy: A Validation of Survival Models Using Follow-Up Data From ZUMA-1

ObjectivesSurvival extrapolation for chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies is challenging, owing to their unique mechanistic properties that translate to complex hazard functions. Axicabtagene ciloleucel is indicated for the treatment of relapse or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after 2 or more lines of therapy based on the ZUMA-1 trial. Four data snapshots are available, with minimum follow-up of 12, 24, 36, and 48 months. This analysis explores how survival extrapolations for axicabtagene ciloleucel using ZUMA-1 data can be validated and compared.MethodsThree different parametric modeling approaches were applied: standard parametric, spline-based, and cure-based models. Models were compared using a range of metrics, across the 4 data snapshot, including visual fit, plausibility of long-term estimates, statistical goodness of fit, inspection of hazard plots, point-estimate accuracy, and conditional survival estimates.ResultsStandard and spline-based parametric extrapolations were generally incapable of fitting the ZUMA-1 data well. Cure-based models provided the best fit based on the earliest data snapshot, with extrapolations remaining consistent as data matured. At 48 months, the maximum survival overestimate was 8.3% (Gompertz mixture-cure model) versus the maximum underestimate of 33.5% (Weibull standard parametric model).ConclusionsWhere a plateau in the survival curve is clinically plausible, cure-based models may be helpful in making accurate predictions based on immature data. The ability to reliably extrapolate from maturing data may reduce delays in patient access to potentially lifesaving treatments. Additional research is required to understand how models compare in broader contexts, including different treatments and therapeutic areas.     

SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。