Machine learning to predict myocardial injury and death after non-cardiac surgery

Myocardial injury due to ischaemia within 30 days of non-cardiac surgery is prognostically relevant. We aimed to determine the discrimination, calibration, accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of single-layer and multiple-layer neural networks for myocardial injury and death within 30 postoperative days. We analysed data from 24,589 participants in the Vascular Events in Non-cardiac Surgery Patients Cohort Evaluation study. Validation was performed on a randomly selected subset of the study population. Discrimination for myocardial injury by single-layer vs. multiple-layer models generated areas (95%CI) under the receiver operating characteristic curve of: 0.70 (0.69–0.72) vs. 0.71 (0.70–0.73) with variables available before surgical referral, p < 0.001; 0.73 (0.72–0.75) vs. 0.75 (0.74–0.76) with additional variables available on admission, but before surgery, p < 0.001; and 0.76 (0.75–0.77) vs. 0.77 (0.76–0.78) with the addition of subsequent variables, p < 0.001. Discrimination for death by single-layer vs. multiple-layer models generated areas (95%CI) under the receiver operating characteristic curve of: 0.71 (0.66–0.76) vs. 0.74 (0.71–0.77) with variables available before surgical referral, p = 0.04; 0.78 (0.73–0.82) vs. 0.83 (0.79–0.86) with additional variables available on admission but before surgery, p = 0.01; and 0.87 (0.83–0.89) vs. 0.87 (0.85–0.90) with the addition of subsequent variables, p = 0.52. The accuracy of the multiple-layer model for myocardial injury and death with all variables was 70% and 89%, respectively.     

A Very Long-term Longitudinal Study on the Evolution and Clinical Outcomes of Persistent Iatrogenic Atrial Septal Defect After Cryoballoon Ablation

Background

Persistent iatrogenic atrial septal defect (iASD) is a common but poorly characterized complication after cryoballoon (CB) pulmonary vein isolation (PVI) procedures. We therefore investigate its prevalence, evolution, risk factors, and clinical outcomes in a prospective longitudinal study.

Epiphyseal osteosarcoma revisited: four illustrative cases with unusual histopathology and literature review

Osteosarcomas arising in the epiphysis are extremely rare and easily missed in the diagnostic consideration of epiphyseal tumors. It is the purpose of this study to delineate the clinical pathological characteristics of ‘epiphyseal osteosarcoma’ under the definition of ‘a solitary long bone osteosarcoma radiographically considered an epiphyseal tumor for which the main radiologic differential diagnosis would encompass giant cell tumor, chondroblastoma and clear cell chondrosarcoma’. Four such cases with unusual histopathology were retrieved among 110 cases of osteosarcoma. Their clinical, radiological and pathological features, together with all 10 reported cases, were analyzed. The radiographic diagnoses of our four cases include two giant cell tumors, one chondroblastoma and one clear cell chondrosarcoma but turn out to be fibroblastic, giant cell rich, telangiectatic and epithelioid variant of epiphyseal osteosarcoma. Including our patients, the 14 reported epiphyseal osteosarcomas comprise 8 males and 6 females, the age at presentation ranges from 11 to 39 years, two‐third in the second decade, 71.4% affect the femur. Due to their epiphyseal locations, many carry benign radiological diagnoses notably giant cell tumor and chondroblastoma. Epiphyseal osteosarcomas may not only masquerade as benign radiological bony lesions but also assume many histological patterns; orthopedic surgeons, radiologists and pathologists should be aware of such possibility. Their behavior and prognosis are dictated by the histologic types, grading and staging rather than location.     

Contrast‐Enhanced Colosonography for the Evaluation of Children With an Imperforate Anus

This case series describes a novel method for showing the preoperative anatomy of children with anorectal malformations using ultrasound contrast, which we have termed “contrast‐enhanced colosonography (ceCS).” Six patients with anorectal malformations without a perineal fistula were studied both by fluoroscopic distal colostography and ceCS, and their results were confirmed surgically. Contrast‐enhanced CS precisely showed the complex anatomic relationships in all cases. Compared to traditional fluoroscopic studies, ceCS has the benefit of no associated ionizing radiation and thus is safer for children.     

Novel method using Hjorth mobility analysis for diagnosing attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder in girls

Background

Attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) is a common childhood neuropsychiatric disorder. Diagnosis of ADHD is based on core symptoms or checklists; however, practitioner subjectivity inevitably results in instances of over- or under-diagnosis. Although an elevated theta/beta ratio (TBR) of the electroencephalography (EEG) band has been approved by the Food and Drug Administration as a factor that may be used in diagnosis of ADHD, several studies have reported no significant differences between the TBR of patients with ADHD and controls.

Demonstrating effectiveness or demonstrating not ineffectiveness – A potential solution for rare disease drug product development?

ABSTRACT

For review and approval of new drug products, substantial evidence regarding safety and effectiveness of the drug products under investigation are necessarily provided. A traditional approach is to test a null hypothesis of ineffectiveness against an alternative hypothesis of effectiveness at the 5% level of significance. The rejection of the null hypothesis of ineffectiveness is in favor of the alternative hypothesis of effectiveness. This approach, however, is somewhat misleading because the rejection of the null hypothesis of ineffectiveness leads to the conclusion of not ineffectiveness, which consists of the proportion of inconclusiveness and the proportion of effectiveness. In this article, we explore the potential use of the concept of demonstrating not ineffectiveness and then effectiveness for regulatory approval of new drug products, especially for rare disease drug products. For rare disease drug product development, one of the major obstacles and challenges is how to use small patient population available for achieving the same standards for regulatory approval. To address this problem, a two-stage approach by first demonstrating not ineffectiveness and then ruling out (or controlling) the probability of inconclusiveness for demonstrating effectiveness is proposed. The proposed two-stage approach is useful with small patient population available for achieving the same standards for regulatory approval of rare disease drug products.     

Innovative Thinking on Endpoint Selection in Clinical Trials

ABSTRACT

In clinical trials, selection of appropriate study endpoints is critical for an accurate and reliable evaluation of safety and effectiveness of a test treatment under investigation. In practice, however, there are usually multiple endpoints available for measurement of disease status and/or therapeutic effect of the test treatment under study. For example, in cancer clinical trials, overall survival, response rate, and/or time to disease progression are usually considered as primary clinical endpoints for evaluation of safety and effectiveness of the test treatment under investigation. Once the study endpoints have been selected, sample size required for achieving a desired power is then determined. It, however, should be noted that different study endpoints may result in different sample sizes. In practice, it is usually not clear which study endpoint can best inform the disease status and measure the treatment effect. Moreover, different study endpoints may not translate one another although they may be highly correlated one another. In this article, we intend to develop an innovative endpoint namely therapeutic index based on a utility function to combine and utilize information collected from all study endpoints. Statistical properties and performances of the proposed therapeutic index are evaluated theoretically. A numerical example concerning a cancer clinical trial is given to illustrate the use of the proposed therapeutic index.