Microeconomics of intertemporal choice in zero-space during Covid-19: a behavioral economics perspective

The European Journal of Health Economics -     

Cholera Outbreak in Grande Comore: 1998–1999

In 1998, a cholera epidemic in east Africa reached the Comoros Islands, an archipelago in the Mozambique Channel that had not reported a cholera case for more than 20 years. In just a little over 1 year (between January 1998 and March 1999), Grande Comore, the largest island in the Union of the Comoros, reported 7,851 cases of cholera, about 3% of the population. Using case reports and field observations during the medical response, we describe the epidemiology of the 1998–1999 cholera epidemic in Grande Comore. Outbreaks of infectious diseases on islands provide a unique opportunity to study transmission dynamics in a nearly closed population, and they may serve as stepping-stones for human pathogens to cross unpopulated expanses of ocean.     

Fatty acid profiles in smokers with chronic periodontitis

We hypothesized that tobacco smoke induces alterations to the 3-OH fatty acids present in lipid A in a manner consistent with a microflora of reduced inflammatory potential. Whole saliva samples and full-mouth clinical periodontal recordings were obtained from persons with (22 smokers; 15 non-smokers) and without (14 smokers; 15 non-smokers) chronic periodontitis. Clear differences in the contributions of multiple saturated 3-OH fatty acid species were noted in the group with disease compared with healthy individuals. Increases in the long-chain fatty acids associated with anaerobic bacterial periodontopathogens, particularly 3-OH-C(i17.0) (146.7%, relative to controls), were apparent. Significant reductions in the 3-OH fatty acids associated with the consensus (high potency) enteric LPS structure (3-OH-C(12.0) and 3-OH-C(14.0); 33.3% and 15.8% reduction, respectively) were noted in smokers compared with non-smokers with chronic periodontitis. Thus, smoking is associated with specific structural alterations to the lipid-A-derived 3-OH fatty acid profile in saliva that are consistent with an oral microflora of reduced inflammatory potential. These findings provide much-needed mechanistic insight into the established clinical conundrum of increased infection with periodontal pathogens but reduced clinical inflammation in smokers.     

Trabecular Bone Score (TBS) Predicts Vertebral Fractures in Japanese Women Over 10 Years Independently of Bone Density and Prevalent Vertebral Deformity: The Japanese Population‐Based Osteoporosis (JPOS) Cohort Study

Bone strength is predominantly determined by bone density, but bone microarchitecture also plays an important role. We examined whether trabecular bone score (TBS) predicts the risk of vertebral fractures in a Japanese female cohort. Of 1950 randomly selected women aged 15 to 79 years, we analyzed data from 665 women aged 50 years and older, who completed the baseline study and at least one follow‐up survey over 10 years, and who had no conditions affecting bone metabolism. Each survey included spinal imaging by dual‐energy X‐ray absorptiometry (DXA) for vertebral fracture assessment and spine areal bone mineral density (aBMD) measurement. TBS was obtained from spine DXA scans archived in the baseline study. Incident vertebral fracture was determined when vertebral height was reduced by 20% or more and satisfied McCloskey‐Kanis criteria or Genant's grade 2 fracture at follow‐up. Among eligible women (mean age 64.1 ± 8.1 years), 92 suffered incident vertebral fractures (16.7/10³ person‐years). These women were older with lower aBMD and TBS values relative to those without fractures. The unadjusted odds ratio of vertebral fractures for one standard deviation decrease in TBS was 1.98 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.56, 2.51) and remained significant (1.64, 95% CI 1.25, 2.15) after adjusting for aBMD. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of TBS and aBMD combined was 0.700 for vertebral fracture prediction and was not significantly greater than that of aBMD alone (0.673). However, reclassification improvement measures indicated that TBS and aBMD combined significantly improved risk prediction accuracy compared with aBMD alone. Further inclusion of age and prevalent vertebral deformity in the model improved vertebral fracture prediction, and TBS remained significant in the model. Thus, lower TBS was associated with higher risk of vertebral fracture over 10 years independently of aBMD and clinical risk factors including prevalent vertebral deformity. TBS could effectively improve fracture risk assessment in clinical settings. © 2014 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.