SALAD‐BAAR: A numerical risk score for hospital admission or emergency department presentation in ambulatory patients with cardiovascular disease

BackgroundWhile many interventions to reduce hospital admissions and emergency department (ED) visits for patients with cardiovascular disease have been developed, identifying ambulatory cardiac patients at high risk for admission can be challenging.HypothesisA computational model based on readily accessible clinical data can identify patients at risk for admission.MethodsElectronic health record (EHR) data from a tertiary referral center were used to generate decision tree and logistic regression models. International Classification of Disease (ICD) codes, labs, admissions, medications, vital signs, and socioenvironmental variables were used to model risk for ED presentation or hospital admission within 90 days following a cardiology clinic visit. Model training and testing were performed with a 70:30 data split. The final model was then prospectively validated.ResultsA total of 9326 patients and 46 465 clinic visits were analyzed. A decision tree model using 75 patient characteristics achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 and a logistic regression model achieved an AUC of 0.73. A simplified 9‐feature model based on logistic regression odds ratios achieved an AUC of 0.72. A further simplified numerical score assigning 1 or 2 points to each variable achieved an AUC of 0.66, specificity of 0.75, and sensitivity of 0.58. Prospectively, this final model maintained its predictive performance (AUC 0.63–0.60).ConclusionNine patient characteristics from routine EHR data can be used to inform a highly specific model for hospital admission or ED presentation in cardiac patients. This model can be simplified to a risk score that is easily calculated and retains predictive performance.     

Increased Morbidity and Mortality of Emergency Laparotomy in Elderly Patients

Background

There is an increasing incidence of elderly patients requiring emergency laparotomy. Our study compares the outcomes of elderly patients undergoing emergency laparotomy against the outcomes of non-elderly patients.

Methodology

Patients who underwent emergency laparotomy between 2015 and 2017 from the National University Hospital, Singapore, were included. Apart from demographic data, indication of surgery and surgical procedure performed were collected. Prospectively collected nutritional scores were evaluated. Outcome measures included duration of surgery, length of ICU and total hospital stay, post-operative complications, and mortality indices. We performed multivariate Cox regression analysis to determine the contribution of various risk factors towards overall survival following emergency laparotomy.

Results

A total of 170 emergency laparotomies were performed. Compared to non-elderly patients, elderly patients had a significantly longer mean stay in hospital (31.5 vs. 18.6 days, p = 0.006) and mean stay in ICU (13.1 vs. 5.3 days, p = 0.003). More elderly patients suffered from post-laparotomy complications compared with non-elderly patients (65.8% vs. 37.4%, p < 0.001). 30-day mortality (31.5% vs. 8.8%, p = 0.019) and 1-year mortality (27.9% vs. 14.3%, p = 0.023) were higher in elderly patients compared with non-elderly patients. Interestingly, there was no statistically significant difference between elderly and non-elderly groups in both the global 3-MinNS as well as the global SGA nutritional scores. ASA status (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.05–6.45, p = 0.038) was an independent risk factor for decreased survival following emergency laparotomy. Notably, while age ≥ 65 demonstrated a significant correlation with survival on univariate analysis (HR 1.03 (1.01–1.05), p = 0.003), this effect was lost following multivariate regression (HR 1.01 (0.453–2.23), p = 0.989).

Conclusion

Elderly patients suffer worse morbidity and mortality following emergency laparotomy. This is likely contributed by comorbidities resulting in higher ASA status.

     

Psychiatric Advance Directives and their relevance to improving psychiatric care in Asian countries

People with mental illness may be unable to provide critical input about the care they wish to receive during a psychiatric crisis because of altered mental states. It is therefore imperative that clinicians seek to understand service users' wishes for care while they are well and able to provide meaningful input into the discussion. Achieving such an end may be done by discussing and completing a psychiatric advance directive. However, very few Asian countries have legislation that supports such advance directives. The present article seeks to give physicians more information about advance psychiatric directives and the potential role they could play to improve the healthcare provided in Asia to people at risk of losing capacity due to a mental illness. The degree to which mental health legislation supports psychiatric advance directives is documented for each country of South East Asia and Eastern Asia.     

The efficacy of blueberry and grape seed extract combination on triple therapy for Helicobacter pylori eradication: a randomised controlled trial

Helicobacter pylori is a major risk factor for gastritis, gastric ulcers and gastric cancer. Traditional therapy with proton pump inhibitor and antibiotics is regarded as optimal for H. pylori eradication whereas, the eradication rate is unsatisfactory. Studies have reported that cranberry may inhibit H. pylori adhesion to the human gastric mucus but lack of other berry extracts have been evaluated in clinical study. Thus, a 9-week add-on randomised controlled trial was conducted to explore the impact of blueberry and grape seed extract (BGE) combinations traditional therapy for H. pylori eradication. In results, we found that there was no significant difference of eradication rate between the berry extract group and placebo group in the intention-to-treat analysis and in the per-protocol analysis (94.64% versus 84.62%, p?=?0.085). Diarrhoea, constipation and epigastric pain were observed increasing during ingestion of the berry extract in some cases. In conclusion, this study indicated that no significant difference existed between the BGE extract group and placebo group in eradication rate under triple therapy.     

Immune checkpoint inhibitors in advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma: Beyond an era of chemoradiation?

Now is an exciting era of development in immunotherapy checkpoint inhibitors and their effect on the treatment of NPC. While the general prognosis of R/M disease is poor, immunotherapy offers some promise in a malignancy associated with EBV and characterized by a peritumoural immune infiltrate. Our study aims to review past and on-going clinical trials of monoclonal antibody therapies against the checkpoint inhibitors (e.g. PD1 and CTLA-4), in R/M NPC. All randomized and nonrandomized controlled trials involving immune checkpoint inhibitor interventions for treatment of NPC were included in the study. We utilized a validated “risk of bias” tool to assess study quality. Four separate Phase I–II trials report the potential of PD1 inhibitor treatment for patients with NPC. Within the observed groups, camrelizumab combined with chemotherapy achieved an objective response in 91% of patients as first-line treatment for metastatic NPC (PFS 68% at 1-year) but this was associated with a high rate of grade >3 adverse events (87%; CTCAE version 4.03). The remaining three studies focused on recurrent NPC disease in patients who had received at least one line of prior chemotherapy. Within this group, camrelizumab monotherapy achieved an objective response in 34% of patients (PFS 27% at 1-year; range across all three studies 20.5–34%). No NPC trial has yet reported on specific outcomes for non-PD1 checkpoint inhibitors but 11 on-going studies include alternative targets (e.g. PD-L1/CTLA-4) as combination or monotherapy treatments. In considering checkpoint immunotherapies for NPC, initial results show promise for anti-PD1 interventions. Further phase I–III trials are in progress to clarify clinical outcomes, fully determine safety profiles, and optimize drug combinations and administration schedules.     

Heat Sink Effect on Tumor Ablation Characteristics as Observed in Monopolar Radiofrequency,Bipolar Radiofrequency,and Microwave,Using Ex Vivo Calf Liver Model

Thermal ablation of liver tumors near large blood vessels is affected by the cooling effect of blood flow, leading to incomplete ablation. Hence, we conducted a comparative investigation of heat sink effect in monopolar (MP) and bipolar (BP) radiofrequency ablation (RFA), and microwave (MW) ablation devices.With a perfused calf liver, the ablative performances (volume, mass, density, dimensions), with and without heat sink, were measured. Heat sink was present when the ablative tip of the probes were 8.0 mm close to a major hepatic vein and absent when >30 mm away. Temperatures (T1 and T2) on either side of the hepatic vein near the tip of the probes, heating probe temperature (T3), outlet perfusate temperature (T4), and ablation time were monitored.With or without heat sink, BP radiofrequency ablated a larger volume and mass, compared with MP RFA or MW ablation, with latter device producing the highest density of tissue ablated. MW ablation produced an ellipsoidal shape while radiofrequency devices produced spheres.Percentage heat sink effect in Bipolar radiofrequency : Mono-polar radiofrequency : Microwave was (Volume) 33:41:22; (mass) 23:56:34; (density) 9.0:26:18; and (relative elipscity) 5.8:12.9:1.3, indicating that BP and MW devices were less affected.Percentage heat sink effect on time (minutes) to reach maximum temperature (W) = 13.28:9.2:29.8; time at maximum temperature (X) is 87:66:16.66; temperature difference (Y) between the thermal probes (T3) and the temperature (T1 + T2)/2 on either side of the hepatic vessel was 100:87:20; and temperature difference between the (T1 + T2)/2 and temperature of outlet circulating solution (T4), Z was 20.33:30.23:37.5.MW and BP radiofrequencies were less affected by heat sink while MP RFA was the most affected. With a single ablation, BP radiofrequency ablated a larger volume and mass regardless of heat sink.