PREDICT-GTN 1: Can we improve the FIGO scoring system in gestational trophoblastic neoplasia?

Gestational trophoblastic neoplasia (GTN) patients are treated according to the eight-variable International Federation of Gynaecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) scoring system, that aims to predict first-line single-agent chemotherapy resistance. FIGO is imperfect with one-third of low-risk patients developing disease resistance to first-line single-agent chemotherapy. We aimed to generate simplified models that improve upon FIGO. Logistic regression (LR) and multilayer perceptron (MLP) modelling (n = 4191) generated six models (M1-6). M1, all eight FIGO variables (scored data); M2, all eight FIGO variables (scored and raw data); M3, nonimaging variables (scored data); M4, nonimaging variables (scored and raw data); M5, imaging variables (scored data); and M6, pretreatment hCG (raw data) + imaging variables (scored data). Performance was compared to FIGO using true and false positive rates, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Bland-Altman calibration plots, decision curve analysis and contingency tables. M1-6 were calibrated and outperformed FIGO on true positive rate and positive predictive value. Using LR and MLP, M1, M2 and M4 generated small improvements to the ROC curve and decision curve analysis. M3, M5 and M6 matched FIGO or performed less well. Compared to FIGO, most (excluding LR M4 and MLP M5) had significant discordance in patient classification (McNemar's test P < .05); 55-112 undertreated, 46-206 overtreated. Statistical modelling yielded only small gains over FIGO performance, arising through recategorisation of treatment-resistant patients, with a significant proportion of under/overtreatment as the available data have been used a priori to allocate primary chemotherapy. Streamlining FIGO should now be the focus.     

Early intervention in myelofibrosis and impact on outcomes: A pooled analysis of the COMFORT-I and COMFORT-II studies

Background

In a pooled analysis of the phase 3 Controlled Myelofibrosis Study With Oral JAK Inhibitor Treatment I (COMFORT-I) and COMFORT-II clinical trials, adult patients with intermediate-2 or high-risk myelofibrosis who received oral ruxolitinib at randomization or after crossover from placebo or best available therapy (BAT) had improved overall survival (OS).

Methods

This post hoc analysis of pooled COMFORT data examined relevant disease outcomes based on the disease duration (≤12 or >12 months from diagnosis) before ruxolitinib initiation.

Results

The analysis included 525 patients (ruxolitinib: ≤12 months, n = 84; >12 months, n = 216; placebo/BAT: ≤12 months, n = 66; >12 months, n = 159); the median age was 65.0–70.0 years. Fewer thrombocytopenia and anemia events were observed among patients who initiated ruxolitinib treatment earlier. At Weeks 24 and 48, the spleen volume response (SVR) was higher for patients who initiated ruxolitinib earlier (47.6% vs. 32.9% at Week 24, p = .0610; 44.0% vs. 26.9% at Week 48, p = .0149). In a multivariable analysis of factors associated with spleen volume reduction, a logistic regression model that controlled for confounding factors found that a significantly greater binary reduction was observed among patients with shorter versus longer disease duration (p = .022). At Week 240, OS was significantly improved among patients who initiated ruxolitinib earlier (63% [95% CI, 51%‒73%] vs. 57% [95% CI, 49%‒64%]; hazard ratio, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.01‒2.31; p = .0430). Regardless of disease duration, a longer OS was observed for patients who received ruxolitinib versus those who received placebo/BAT.

Conclusions

These findings suggest that earlier ruxolitinib initiation for adult patients with intermediate-2 and high-risk myelofibrosis may improve clinical outcomes, including fewer cytopenia events, durable SVR, and prolonged OS.

Plain Language Summary

• Patients with myelofibrosis, a bone marrow cancer, often do not live as long as the general population. These patients may also have an enlarged spleen and difficult symptoms such as fatigue.
• Two large clinical trials showed that patients treated with the drug ruxolitinib lived longer and had improved symptoms compared to those treated with placebo or other standard treatments.
• Here it was examined whether starting treatment with ruxolitinib earlier (i.e., within a year of diagnosis) provided benefits versus delaying treatment.
• Patients who received ruxolitinib within a year of diagnosis lived longer and experienced fewer disease symptoms than those whose treatment was delayed.

     

Thyroid Dysfunction in Patients with Pulmonary Artery Hypertension (PAH): The Effect of Therapies Affecting the Prostanoid Pathway

Lung - Epoprostenol, a synthetic prostaglandin I2 (PGI2) analog, has been the mainstay of treatment for severe pulmonary arterial hypertension (PAH) for the last two decades. Treprostinil, another...     

Clinicopathological and molecular characterisation of ‘multiple-classifier’ endometrial carcinomas

Endometrial carcinoma (EC) molecular classification based on four molecular subclasses identified in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) has gained relevance in recent years due to its prognostic utility and potential to predict benefit from adjuvant treatment. While most ECs can be classified based on a single classifier (POLE exonuclease domain mutations – POLEmut, MMR deficiency – MMRd, p53 abnormal – p53abn), a small but clinically relevant group of tumours harbour more than one molecular classifying feature and are referred to as ‘multiple-classifier’ ECs. We aimed to describe the clinicopathological and molecular features of multiple-classifier ECs with abnormal p53 (p53abn). Within a cohort of 3518 molecularly profiled ECs, 107 (3%) tumours displayed p53abn in addition to another classifier(s), including 64 with MMRd (MMRd–p53abn), 31 with POLEmut (POLEmut–p53abn), and 12 with all three aberrations (MMRd–POLEmut–p53abn). MMRd–p53abn ECs and POLEmut–p53abn ECs were mostly grade 3 endometrioid ECs, early stage, and frequently showed morphological features characteristic of MMRd or POLEmut ECs. 18/28 (60%) MMRd–p53abn ECs and 7/15 (46.7%) POLEmut–p53abn ECs showed subclonal p53 overexpression, suggesting that TP53 mutation was a secondary event acquired during tumour progression. Hierarchical clustering of TCGA ECs by single nucleotide variant (SNV) type and somatic copy number alterations (SCNAs) revealed that MMRd–p53abn tumours mostly clustered with single-classifier MMRd tumours (20/23) rather than single-classifier p53abn tumours (3/23), while POLEmut–p53abn tumours mostly clustered with single-classifier POLEmut tumours (12/13) and seldom with single-classifier p53abn tumours (1/13) (both p ≤ 0.001, chi-squared test). Finally, the clinical outcome of patients with MMRd–p53abn and POLEmut–p53abn ECs [stage I 5-year recurrence-free survival (RFS) of 92.2% and 94.1%, respectively] was significantly different from single-classifier p53abn EC (stage I RFS 70.8%, p = 0.024 and p = 0.050, respectively). Our results support the classification of MMRd–p53abn EC as MMRd and POLEmut–p53abn EC as POLEmut. © 2019 The Authors. The Journal of Pathology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland.     

Vaccine confidence in the time of COVID-19

In the early months of the COVID-19 epidemic, some have wondered if the force of this global experience will solve the problem of vaccine refusal that has vexed and preoccupied the global public health community for the last several decades. Drawing on historical and epidemiological analyses, we critique contemporary approaches to reducing vaccine hesitancy and articulate our notion of vaccine confidence as an expanded way of conceptualizing the problem and how to respond to it. Intervening on the rush of vaccine optimism we see pervading present discourse around the COVID-19 epidemic, we call for a re-imagination of the culture of public health and the meaning of vaccine safety regulations. Public confidence in vaccination programs depends on the work they do for the community—social, political, and moral as well as biological. The concept of public health and its programs must be broader than the delivery of the vaccine technology itself. The narrative work and policy actions entailed in actualizing such changes will, we expect, be essential in achieving a true vaccine confidence, however the public reacts to the specific vaccine that may be developed for COVID-19.     

Biases in the Explore–Exploit Tradeoff in Addictions: The Role of Avoidance of Uncertainty

We focus on exploratory decisions across disorders of compulsivity, a potential dimensional construct for the classification of mental disorders. Behaviors associated with the pathological use of alcohol or food, in alcohol use disorders (AUD) or binge-eating disorder (BED), suggest a disturbance in explore–exploit decision-making, whereby strategic exploratory decisions in an attempt to improve long-term outcomes may diminish in favor of more repetitive or exploitatory choices. We compare exploration vs exploitation across disorders of natural (obesity with and without BED) and drug rewards (AUD). We separately acquired resting state functional MRI data using a novel multi-echo planar imaging sequence and independent components analysis from healthy individuals to assess the neural correlates underlying exploration. Participants with AUD showed reduced exploratory behavior across gain and loss environments, leading to lower-yielding exploitatory choices. Obese subjects with and without BED did not differ from healthy volunteers but when compared with each other or to AUD subjects, BED had enhanced exploratory behaviors particularly in the loss domain. All subject groups had decreased exploration or greater uncertainty avoidance to losses compared with rewards. More exploratory decisions in the context of reward were associated with frontal polar and ventral striatal connectivity. For losses, exploration was associated with frontal polar and precuneus connectivity. We further implicate the relevance and dimensionality of constructs of compulsivity across disorders of both natural and drug rewards.