基于文献的老年人群常见证候分布特征研究＊

目的 了解我国老年人中医证候分布特征，为中医药辨治老年人提供参考依据。方法 系统检索中国知识基础设施（CNKI）、中文科技期刊数据库（CCD）、万方数据资源系统数据库（CSPD），纳入研究对象为老年人的临床流行病学调查研究文献，对其调查目的、调查疾病及调查结果等进行描述统计。结果 ①最终纳入168篇文献，其中2010至2020年之间发表138篇（82.14%）；调查地区涵盖全国28个省市自治区，共纳入43948例老年人，累计覆盖340个研究中心；②主要研究结果显示，老年人中医证候阴虚阳亢证（10.05%）>血瘀证（9.5%）>痰浊（湿）证（8.91%）>阴阳两虚证（4.98%）>痰瘀互结证（4.96%）；单元证分布阴虚证（14.70%）>痰证（11.22%）>气虚证（7.15%）>肾虚证（4.72%）>血瘀证（4.18%）；涉及病变脏腑肾>肝>脾>肺>心。结论 根据统计结果，可以看出老年人证候分布虚证多于实证，虚证中又以阴虚证、气虚证最为多见，实证常见血瘀证、痰浊（湿）证等，且多见痰瘀互结证；老年人五脏皆损，其中又以肾、肝、脾功能失调最为突出。     

中医药治疗动脉粥样硬化临床研究进展

中医药防治动脉粥样硬化的研究具有良好的实践基础和应用前景,治疗方法可归于四类,即活血化瘀、化痰调脂、痰瘀同治、扶正祛邪,研究者辨证施治,多在临床上取得了满意的疗效。目前研究仍存在一些亟待解决的问题:首先,中医药防治动脉粥样硬化临床研究重复性差,缺乏大样本、多中心、高质量的临床研究及系统深入的实验研究;其次,对专家经验方及中药复方研究不够深入,临床药效物质基础不明确,缺乏对其作用机制的深入挖掘;再次,目前的研究不够系统和全面,主要集中在对动脉粥样硬化的形成和发展过程的研究,对斑块易损性研究相对较少。针对上述问题,今后应加强中医药治疗动脉粥样硬化的基础及临床研究,为治疗提供更加明确的理论依据和临床证据;同时,建立具有中医特色的研究模式,以中医宏观辨证理论为指导,利用现代医学技术,参考现代中药药理实验结果选药组方,扩大辨证选药思路,加强对中药方剂配伍规律的研究,以及对其有效成分的分离提取、鉴定和作用机制研究,并将传统组方理论与针对发病机制的对病治疗相结合,多角度、多层次探索中医药的作用机理。此外,应不断深入探索动脉粥样硬化的发病机制,并结合细胞工程、分子生物学及基因科学,积极研究中医药的药效学基础和机制。     

SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

Comparative Study of Modified Posterior Operation to Treat Kümmell's Disease

The present study aimed at examining the curative effect of modified posterior operation on treatment of Kümmell''s disease.About 30 patients of Kümmell''s disease with complete image and clinical data treated during June 2004 to July 2013 were conducted with anterior and posterior approaches, respectively. Kyphotic Cobb angle, fractured vertebra wedge angle, and the anterior and posterior heights of fractured vertebra were all measured through x-ray before and after operation, and the pain visual analog scale (VAS) was determined for evaluating the effect of operations. The injury and restoration of neurological function were assessed using Frankel classification.Patients in group A were treated with anterior operation, whereas group B was posterior operation. Postoperatively, VAS score, kyphotic Cobb angle, anterior vertebra height, and pathologic vertebra wedge angle were all significantly improved in patients with Kümmell''s disease receiving modified posterior operation (group B). Similar results were also observed in patients with anterior operation. The improvement of VAS and correction rate of kyphotic Cobb angle indicated equivalent effects of posterior and anterior operations. Meanwhile, alleviated neurological function damage was observed in 2 groups. Relevant factor analysis illustrated that there was no significant correlation of the severity and improvement rate of pain symptoms with age, medical history, anterior and posterior vertebra heights, kyphotic Cobb angle, and pathological vertebra wedge angle.Compared with traditional anterior approach, modified posterior operation, adopting transpedicular vertebral body grafting combined with vertebral pedicle screw fixation, could produce equivalent effects on kyphosis correction, pain relief, and improvement of neurological function in patients with Kümmell''s disease.     

Radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI for predicting liver failure

BACKGROUND Postoperative liver failure is the most severe complication in cirrhotic patients with hepatocellular carcinoma(HCC) after major hepatectomy. Current available clinical indexes predicting postoperative residual liver function are not sufficiently accurate.AIM To determine a radiomics model based on preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging for predicting liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.METHODS For this retrospective study, a radiomics-based model was developed based on preoperative hepatobiliary phase gadoxetic acid-enhanced magnetic resonance images in 101 patients with HCC between June 2012 and June 2018. Sixty-one radiomic features were extracted from hepatobiliary phase images and selected by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator method to construct a radiomics signature. A clinical prediction model, and radiomics-based model incorporating significant clinical indexes and radiomics signature were built using multivariable logistic regression analysis. The integrated radiomics-based model was presented as a radiomics nomogram. The performances of clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model for predicting post-operative liver failure were determined using receiver operating characteristics curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analyses.RESULTS Five radiomics features from hepatobiliary phase images were selected to construct the radiomics signature. The clinical prediction model, radiomics signature, and radiomics-based model incorporating indocyanine green clearance rate at 15 min and radiomics signature showed favorable performance for predicting postoperative liver failure(area under the curve: 0.809-0.894). The radiomics-based model achieved the highest performance for predicting liver failure(area under the curve: 0.894; 95%CI: 0.823-0.964). The integrated discrimination improvement analysis showed a significant improvement in the accuracy of liver failure prediction when radiomics signature was added to the clinical prediction model(integrated discrimination improvement = 0.117, P =0.002). The calibration curve and an insignificant Hosmer-Lemeshow test statistic(P = 0.841) demonstrated good calibration of the radiomics-based model. The decision curve analysis showed that patients would benefit more from a radiomics-based prediction model than from a clinical prediction model and radiomics signature alone.CONCLUSION A radiomics-based model of preoperative gadoxetic acid–enhanced MRI can be used to predict liver failure in cirrhotic patients with HCC after major hepatectomy.