SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

Risk Factors for Early Port Infections in Adult Oncologic Patients

PurposeThe purpose of this study was to retrospectively investigate risk factors for chest port (port) infections within 30 days of placement (early port infections) in adult oncologic patients.Materials and MethodsThis single-institution, three-center retrospective study identified 1,714 patients (868 males, 846 females; median age 60.0 years old) who underwent port placement between January 2013 and August 2017. All patients received an intravenous antibiotic prior to port placement. The median absolute neutrophil count was 5,260 cells/μL, the median white blood cell (WBC) count was 7,700 cells/μL, and the median serum albumin was 4.00 g/dL at the time of port placement. Double-lumen ports were most commonly implanted (74.85%) more frequently in an outpatient setting (72.69%). Risk factors for early port infections were elucidated using univariate and multivariate proportional subdistribution hazard regression analyses.ResultsA total of 20 patients (1.2%) had early port infections; 15 patients (0.9%) had positive blood cultures. The mean time to infection was 20 days (range, 9–30 days). The port-related 30-day mortality rate was 0.2% (4 of 1,714 patients). Most bloodstream infections were attributed to Staphylococcus spp. (n = 11). In multivariate analysis, hematologic malignancy (hazard ratio [HR], 2.61; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.15–5.92.; P = .02), hypoalbuminemia (albumin <3.5 g/dL; HR, 3.52; 95% CI: 1.48–8.36; P = .004), leukopenia (WBC <3,500 cells/μL; HR, 3.00; 95% CI: 1.11–8.09; P = .03), and diabetes mellitus (HR, 3.71; 95% CI: 1.57–8.83) remained statistically significant risk factors for early port infection.ConclusionsHematologic malignancy, hypoalbuminemia, leukopenia, and diabetes mellitus at the time of port placement were independent risk factors for early port infections.     

苏州市初治菌阴肺结核患者就诊延迟现况及临床特征

目的 分析初治菌阴肺结核患者就诊延迟现况及临床特征,为制定有效措施提供科学依据。方法 应用横断面研究,收集苏州市5家结核病定点医院初治菌阴肺结核患者人口学、经济来源、生活方式、结核病知识、主要病史及进入结核病定点医院前发病和就诊等临床资料,采用Logistic回归方法进行统计分析。结果 379例初治菌阴肺结核患者就诊延迟186例,就诊延迟率为49.08%。老年人(OR=1.898,95% CI=1.157~3.112,P=0.011)、日工作时间大于8 h(OR=1.774,95% CI=1.014~3.102, P=0.044)、流动人口(OR=3.252; 95% CI=1.807~5.855, P<0.001)和发热(OR= 2.061,95% CI=1.021~4.160,P=0.043)是初治菌阴肺结核患者发生就诊延迟的危险特征,而咯血(OR= 0.356, 95% CI= 0.164~0.773,P=0.009)是就诊延迟的保护特征。结论 初治菌阴肺结核患者就诊延迟现象较严重,需对不同临床特征的患者采取综合干预措施,减少就诊延迟发生。     

Hook plating in patella fractures

PurposeTension band wiring is considered the standard treatment for patella fractures. However, it is limited for fractures with marginal involvement, comminution, and osteoporotic bone. Our experience indicates that these limitations can be overcome with the hook plate. We evaluated the radiographic and clinical outcomes in patients with patella fracture treated with hook plating.MethodsWe enrolled 30 patients who underwent hook plating for patella fracture at two institutions between 2013 and 2017. Fracture classification and surgical options were reviewed. Postoperative fracture gap and time to union as radiographic measurements, and complications, range of motion, and functional outcome with the Lysholm score as clinical outcomes, were evaluated retrospectively.ResultsNine fractures were AO/OTA 34A1, three B1, one B2, two C1, nine C2, and six C3. All were closed fractures. There were 3 cases of revision, 4 with lateral or medial marginal fracture, 9 with isolated inferior pole fracture, and 14 with comminuted fracture. The average postoperative fracture gap was 0.4 (range, 0–2.0) mm, and bone union was achieved without additional intervention. The average time to union was 11.6 (range, 7–24) weeks. There were no complications, and no extension lag except in one case (10°). The average flexion was 138.5° (range, 110–145°). For functional outcomes, the average Lysholm score was 89.5 (range, 74–95), with 13 excellent, 14 good, 3 fair, and no poor cases.ConclusionThis study suggests that hook plating can result in good bone union and restored knee function in marginal or comminuted fractures of the patella.     

Lee-Carter模型在苏州市消化道癌症死亡分析中的应用

  目的  通过建立Lee-Carter模型，分析苏州市2002-2016年消化道癌症的死亡特征和变化趋势。  方法  采用苏州市死因监测点居民的消化道癌症死亡数据，计算死亡率和标化死亡率，并建立Lee-Carter死亡率预测模型，进行死亡率的趋势分析。  结果  以苏州市2012-2016年消化道癌症死亡率数据检验模型的应用效果，其平均绝对百分误差（mean absolute percentage error，MAPE）值在年龄和年份水平上分别为2.48%、4.13%，表明模型预测效果较佳；2002-2016年消化道癌症总体的死亡指数呈下降趋势，其中上消化道癌症死亡指数呈现下降趋势，下消化道癌症死亡指数呈现上升趋势；上消化道癌症死亡率是下消化道癌症死亡率的4.23倍，男性死亡率是女性死亡率的2.17倍。  结论  苏州市居民消化道癌症死亡率总体呈逐年下降趋势，其中下消化道癌症男性死亡率呈逐年上升趋势。本研究发现苏州市已出现人口老龄化现象，其医疗卫生水平逐年提高。     

Edaravone inhibits procaspase-3 denitrosylation and activation through FasL-Trx2 pathway in KA-induced seizure

Previous studies have demonstrated that excessive free radicals play an essential role in the initiation and progression of epilepsy and that a novel exogenous free radical scavenger edaravone (Ed) exerts some neuroprotective effects on seizure-induced neuronal damage. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the possible molecular mechanisms of Ed associated with procaspase-3 denitrosylation and activation through the FasL-Trx2 pathway in seizures rats. In this study, we investigated the effects of Ed on the regulation of the combination of Fas ligand/Fas receptor and the major components of the death-inducing signaling complex (DISC) in the hippocampus of kainic acid (KA)-treated Sprague Dawley (SD) rats. Treatment with Ed can attenuate the increased expression of FasL induced by KA and prevent procaspase-3 denitrosylation and activation via suppression of the FasL-Trx2 signaling pathway, which alleviates the neuronal damage in seizures. These results provide experimental evidence that Ed functions by preventing the denitrosylation and activation of procaspase-3 and that Ed acts as a therapeutic option for epilepsy.     

2019年苏州市输入性恶性疟2例

对苏州市2019年报告的2例输入性恶性疟病例的基本信息、流行病学史以及诊治过程资料进行收集、整理和分析。结果显示,苏州市输入性疟疾不仅在劳务输出人群中高发,在探亲访友人群中也存在感染风险,尤其是儿童感染风险应引起重视。