Performance of risk prediction models for post-operative mortality in patients undergoing liver resection

BackgroundLiver resection is commonly performed for hepatic tumors, however preoperative risk stratification remains challenging. We evaluated the performance of contemporary prediction models for short-term mortality after liver resection in patients with and without cirrhosis.MethodsThis retrospective cohort study examined National Surgical Quality Improvement Program data. We included patients who underwent liver resections from 2014 to 2019. VOCAL-Penn, MELD, MELD-Na, ALBI, and Mayo risk scores were evaluated in terms of model discrimination and calibration for 30-day post-operative mortality.ResultsA total 15,198 patients underwent liver resection, of whom 249 (1.6%) experienced 30-day post-operative mortality. The VOCAL-Penn score had the highest discrimination (area under the ROC curve [AUC] 0.74) compared to all other models. The VOCAL-Penn score similarly outperformed other models in patients with (AUC 0.70) and without (AUC 0.74) cirrhosis.ConclusionThe VOCAL-Penn score demonstrated superior predictive performance for 30-day post-operative mortality after liver resection as compared to existing clinical standards.     

Deepm5C: A deep-learning-based hybrid framework for identifying human RNA N5-methylcytosine sites using a stacking strategy

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SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

‘I believe high blood pressure can kill me:’ using the PEN-3 Cultural Model to understand patients’ perceptions of an intervention to control hypertension in Ghana

Objectives: Currently in Ghana, there is an on-going task-shifting strategy in which nurses are trained in hypertension management. While this study will provide useful information on the viability of this approach, it is not clear how patients in the intervention perceive hypertension, the task-shifting strategy, and its effects on blood pressure management. The objective of this paper is to examine patients’ perceptions of hypertension and hypertension management in the context of an on-going task-shifting intervention to manage blood pressure control in Ghana.

Design: Forty-two patients participating in the Task Shifting Strategy for Hypertension program (23 males, 19 females, and mean age 61. 7 years) completed in-depth, qualitative interviews. Interviews were transcribed, and key words and phrases were extracted and coded using the PEN-3 Cultural Model as a guide through open and axial coding techniques, thus allowing rich exploration of the data.

Results: Emergent themes included patients’ perceptions of hypertension, which encompassed misperceptions of hypertension and blood pressure control. Additional themes included enablers and barriers to hypertension management, and how the intervention nurtured lifestyle change associated with blood pressure control. Primary enabling factors included the supportive nature of TASSH nurses, while notable barriers were financial constraints and difficulty accessing medication. Nurturing factors included the motivational interviewing and patient counseling which instilled confidence in the patients that they could make lasting behavior changes.

Conclusions: This study offers a unique perspective of blood pressure control by examining how patients view an on-going task-shifting initiative for hypertension management. The results of this study shed light on factors that can help and hinder individuals in low-resource settings with long-term blood pressure management.     

The Health Belief Model in predicting healthcare workers' intention for influenza vaccine uptake in Jordan

BackgroundTheories of health behavior change are being inadequately adopted to understand the reasons behind low influenza vaccination rates among healthcare workers (HCWs). The Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) is being used to predict intention-behavior relationship while the Health Belief Model (HBM) is being employed to predict actual behavior. The purpose of this study was to test a conceptual model based on the HBM’s constructs to predict Jordanian HCWs’ intentions for influenza vaccine uptake as an alternative to the TPB.MethodA cross-sectional questionnaire-based study was conducted in 2016 in a tertiary teaching hospital in Amman-Jordan including a convenience sample of 477 HCWs with direct patient contact. The study instrument was tested for validity and reliability. A conceptual regression model was proposed incorporating the constructs of the primary HBM with some modifications in the threat construct as well as an additional variable about explicit past vaccination behavior (in the past year and/or any previous history of influenza vaccine uptake).ResultsAlmost all the constructs of the HBM demonstrated significant differences between participants intending and those who did not intend to vaccinate against influenza. After adjusting for the confounding variables in the final conceptual regression model, past vaccination behavior (OR= 4.50, 95%Confidence Interval 3.38–6.00, P< 0.0005) and the perceived benefit scale (OR= 1.19, 95% Confidence Interval 1.11–1.28, P< 0.0005) were the only significant predictors of intentions to vaccinate against influenza in the next season.ConclusionTaking into consideration the altruistic beliefs of HCWs and their explicit past vaccination history augments the utility of the original HBM tool in predicting HCWs’ intentions to vaccinate against influenza in a way that is consistent with the predictive ability of the Theory of Planned Behavior.     

Chemical applicability domain of the Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) for skin sensitisation potency. Part 2. The biological variability of the murine Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) for skin sensitisation

The Local Lymph Node Assay (LLNA) is the most common in vivo regulatory toxicology test for skin sensitisation, quantifying potency as the EC3, the concentration of chemical giving a threefold increase in thymidine uptake in the local lymph node. Existing LLNA data can, along with clinical data, provide useful comparator information on the potency of sensitisers. Understanding of the biological variability of data from LLNA studies is important for those developing non-animal based risk assessment approaches for skin allergy. Here an existing set of 94 EC3 values for 12 chemicals, all tested at least three times in the same vehicle have been analysed by calculating standard deviations (SD) for logEC3 values. The SDs range from 0.08 to 0.22. The overall SD for the 94 logEC3 values is 0.147. Thus the 95% confidence limits (2xSD) for LLNA EC3 values are within a factor of 2, comparable to those for physico-chemical measurements such as partition coefficients and solubility. The residual SDs of Quantitative Mechanistic Models (QMMs) based on physical organic chemistry parameters are similar to the overall SD of the LLNA, indicating that QMMs of this type are unlikely to be bettered for predictive accuracy.     

Gynecologic Malignancy-Associated Venous Thromboembolism and Predictive Tool at Thammasat University Hospital

Objectives: Aims were to investigate the prevalence and risk factors of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in gynecologic malignancy cases. Value of screening tool (Caprini) for prediction of VTE was also assessed. Study design: A retrospective study of gynecologic malignancy subjects who underwent major gynecological operation via exploratory laparotomy at Thammasat University Hospital, Pathum Thani, Thailand from January 2015 to December 2020. Participants were categorized into VTE and non-VTE groups. Caprini score, associated laboratory and clinical factors of both groups were evaluated. Results: A total of 392 subjects were recruited into the study. Prevalence of VTE was 7.4 (29/392) percent. VTE was diagnosed in subjects with endometrial, ovarian and cervical cancer at percentage of 7.8 (15/192), 7.9 (11/138) and 5.7 (3/53), respectively. Demographic characters of both groups were comparable. VTE group had significant more Caprini score, platelets count and platelet lymphocyte ratio (PLR) than non-VTE group. Modified Caprini score (2 multiply Caprini score plus 1 multiply PLR) was generated for better VTE prediction. Sensitivity and specificity of Caprini (≥5.5) and modified Caprini scores (≥22.8) were 72.4 vs 39.4, and 79.3 vs 52.1 percent, respectively. Conclusion: Prevalence of VTE among gynecologic malignancy cases was 7.4 percent. The modified Caprini score was an alternative VTE predictive tool. Cut-off point of modified Caprini score at equal or more than 22.8 was proposed.     

从武汉抗疫看中医药文化认同与新的医学模式

从武汉抗疫中医药的投入使用情况,反思现代临床和国人所呈现出的中医药文化认同和就医习惯,探索其历史文化根源及社会因素与医学发展的内在关联。回顾历史,中医屡次临危受命,不负重托,如今大疫当前,中医药再次发挥了重要作用。故新时代探讨如何遵循中医药发展规律,传承精华、守正创新,坚持中医药原创优势,形成中医药学科优势整体化呈现的新模式医学,对提升全社会的中医药认知度具有重要意义。