An Independent Assessment of the 7 Nomograms for Predicting the Probability of Additional Axillary Nodal Metastases After Positive Sentinel Lymph Node Biopsy in a Cohort of British Patients With Breast Cancer

IntroductionAxillary lymph node dissection (ALND) is currently the recommended procedure in patients with tumor-positive sentinel lymph node biopsy (SLNB). A significant proportion of patients with positive SLNs will not have any additional metastases in nonsentinel lymph nodes (NSLNs). Predictive nomograms could identify a subgroup of patients with low or high risk of further disease in whom completion ALND can be avoided or recommended. The aim of this study was to assess the accuracy of the currently available 7 nomograms in a cohort of British patients with breast cancer.Patients and MethodsA total of 138 patients with positive SLNs who underwent completion ALND were identified. Data were then used to calculate the probability of further metastases in NSLNs predicted by the 7 nomograms that are currently in use: the MSKCC (Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center), Cambridge, Turkish, Stanford, MDACC (University of Texas MD Anderson Cancer Center), Tenon, and MOU (Masarykuv onkologický ústav, Masaryk Memorial Cancer Institute) models. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was calculated for each nomogram.ResultsOf the 138 patients, 54 (41%) had additional metastases in NSLNs. AUC values for the MSKCC, Cambridge, Turkish, Stanford, MDACC, Tenon, and MOU models are 0.68, 0.68, 0.70, 0.69, 0.56, 0.63, and 0.74, respectively.ConclusionThe MOU nomogram was more predictive than the other nomograms, with a better AUC value and false-negative rate. None of the models were able to achieve AUC value ≥ 0.80 in a cohort of British patients with breast cancer.     

基于SEER数据的原发性小肝癌肝切除术后生存率列线图模型的构建及验证

目的基于SEER数据和中国数据建立并验证原发性小肝癌肝切除术后总生存率列线图模型。方法提取2004年—2015年美国国立癌症研究所SEER数据库所登记的原发性小肝癌接受肝切除术治疗的1809例患者资料作为建模组;收集2010年—2017年在川北医学院附属医院接受肝切除术治疗的小肝癌患者158例为验证组。采用单因素Cox风险回归、lasso回归、多因素Cox风险回归分析小肝癌患者肝切除术后OS的影响因素。根据OS的独立影响因素构建列线图模型,利用一致性指数(C-index)、绘制校准曲线及ROC曲线检验模型的预测能力。利用Kaplan-Meier生存分析和log-rank检验分析高、低风险组间的生存差异。结果多因素Cox风险回归分析发现性别(HR=1.22, 95%CI:1.05～1.41,P=0.010)、Seer分期(HR=1.51,95%CI:1.23～1.85,P<0.001;HR=10.31,95%CI:2.53～42.04,P=0.001)、肿瘤直径(HR=1.22,95%CI:1.06～1.39,P=0.004)、脉管侵犯或转移(HR=1.43,95%CI:1.24～...     

Immunocytology is a strong predictor of bladder cancer presence in patients with painless hematuria: a multicentre study

Background

Although the performance of immunocytology has been established in the surveillance of patients with urothelial carcinoma of the bladder (UCB), its value in the initial detection of UCB in patients with painless hematuria remains unclear.

Objective

To determine whether immunocytology improves our ability to predict the likelihood of UCB in patients with painless hematuria. Further, to test the clinical benefit of immunocytology in this setting using decision curve analysis.

Design, setting, and participants

The subjects were 1182 consecutive patients without a history of UCB presenting with painless hematuria and were enrolled at three centres.

Intervention

All patients underwent upper-tract imaging, cystourethroscopy, voided urine cytology, and immunocytology analysis. Bladder tumors were biopsied and histologically confirmed as UCB.

Measurements

Multivariable regression models were developed. Area under the curve was measured and compared using the DeLong test. A nomogram was constructed from the full multivariable model. Decision curve analysis was performed to evaluate the clinical benefit associated with use of the multivariable models including immunocytology.

Results and limitations

Immunocytology had the largest contribution to a multivariable model for the prediction of UCB (odds ratio: 18.3; p < 0.0001), which achieved a 90.8% predictive accuracy. Decision curve analysis revealed that models incorporating immunocytology achieved the highest net benefit at all threshold probabilities.

Conclusions

Immunocytology is a strong predictor of the presence of UCB in patients who present with painless hematuria. Incorporation of immunocytology into predictive models improves diagnostic accuracy by a statistically and clinically significant margin. The use of immunocytology in the diagnostic workup of patients with hematuria appears promising and should be further evaluated.     

肺癌患者就医延迟风险预测模型的构建及验证

目的 构建并验证肺癌患者就医延迟风险预测模型。方法 2021年9月—2022年6月,采用便利抽样法,选取广西壮族自治区某三级甲等医院收治的493例肺癌患者作为调查对象,将其随机分为建模组345例和内部验证组148例,选取另一所三级甲等医院收治的47例肺癌患者作为外部验证组;采用Logistic回归分析筛选肺癌患者就医延迟的危险因素,使用R软件构建风险预测模型和列线图模型,采用受试者操作特征曲线下面积检验模型预测效果。结果 最终构建的模型为Y=ez/（1+ez）,其中Z=9.04×低疾病感知水平+2.01×未定期体检-0.08×领悟社会支持量表得分+0.23×就医行为感知障碍量表得分-0.15×慢性病患者健康素养量表得分。内部验证组受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.849,灵敏度为82.39%,特异度为78.83%,阳性预测值为90.61%,阴性预测值为63.57%。外部验证组受试者操作特征曲线下面积为0.830,灵敏度为97.36%,特异度为80.03%,阳性预测值为94.62%,阴性预测值为80.05%。结论 低疾病感知水平、未定期体检、领悟社会支持水平低、就医行为感知障碍高、健康素养水...     

The Role of Anatomic Extented Pelvic Lymphadenectomy in Men Undergoing Radical Prostatectomy for Prostate Cancer

The rationale for locoregional staging lymphadenectomy in prostate cancer lies in the accurate diagnosis of occult micrometastases in order to stratify patients who might benefit from adjuvant therapeutic measures. In prostate cancer, extended pelvic lymphadenectomy (EPLA) including the lymphatic tissue along the common iliac region with the ureteral crossing as cranial margin, external and internal iliac region and the obturator fossa has been shown to significantly increase the yield of both total lymph nodes and lymph node metastases. The total number of lymph nodes removed is about 2 to 3-fold higher and the frequency of micrometastatic lymph nodes is approximately 2-fold higher compared to standard lymphadenectomy. Furthermore, the frequency of observed positive lymph nodes in clinically localized and locally advanced prostate cancer is significantly higher than predicted by nomograms such as Partin tables and CART analysis. Although there are no prospective randomized trials demonstrating a survival benefit associated with EPLA, there might be an advantage for those with minimal lymph node involvement. Progression-free survival is significantly improved in patients undergoing EPLA with a 35% benefit compared to standard lymphadenectomy. Various studies have documented an equal risk of cancer associated mortality in patients with no or only 1–2 positive lymph nodes. Since the surgery associated morbidity of EPLA is not increased as compared to standard lymphadenectomy, EPLA should be favoured at least for all intermediate and high risk patients undergoing radical prostatectomy; in low risk patients the option of EPLA has to be discussed thoroughly. For the future, ongoing prospective trials have to demonstrate a clear benefit in terms of biochemical free and cancer specific survival.     

Development and validation of a prognostic model for survival in peritoneal dialysis patients

Objective To develop and validate a nomogram for predicting the 1-and 3-year survival rates of patients receiving peritoneal dialysis. Methods Patients who underwent peritoneal dialysis for the first time in Zhujiang hospital from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2017 were enrolled. The patients from January 1, 2014 to December 31, 2017 were enrolled in a training dataset. Baseline clinical data were collected and the primary endpoint was all-cause death. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to analyze risk factors affecting the survival rates. Nomograms were generated using the R rms package. The Harrell' concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve were used to verify the performance of the model. Patients who underwent peritoneal dialysis from January 1, 2010 to December 31, 2013 were then selected to validate the external predictive accuracy of the prediction models. Results The prediction cohort enrolled 457 patients, with a median follow-up time of 27.67(18.37, 39.22) months, and 64 patients (14.00%) died during follow-up. The 1-and 3-year cumulative survival rates were 96.4% and 83.0%. Multivariate analysis showed that aging (every 1 year old increase, HR=1.07, 95%CI 1.04-1.09, P﹤0.001), stroke (HR=3.63, 95%CI 1.93-6.85, P﹤0.001), higher cholesterol (every 1 mmol/L increase, HR=1.51, 95%CI 1.20-1.89, P﹤0.001), higher neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (every 1 increase, HR=1.12, 95%CI 1.05-1.20, P=0.001), and lower albumin (HR=0.89, 95%CI 0.82-0.95, P=0.001) were independent risk factors affecting the survival rates of PD patients. The C-index of the prediction cohort and the validation cohort were 0.815(95%CI 0.765-0.865) and 0.804(95%CI 0.744-0.864, respectively). Both internally and externally verified calibration curves showed that the predicted results were close to the actual survival rates. Conclusion Based on age, blood total cholesterol level, stroke history, and NLR, the prognosis prediction model of peritoneal dialysis patients established with nomogram can help predict the 1-year and 3-year survival rates of peritoneal dialysis patients.     

基于列线图可视化评估结肠镜肠道准备充分度的研究

目的探讨结肠镜检查前根据肠道准备情况建立列线图, 评价肠道准备充分度并指导临床决策的可行性。方法选取2020年9月—2021年3月在中南大学湘雅医院消化内镜中心行结肠镜诊疗的受检者, 进行问卷调查, 最终回收有效问卷1 023份, 问卷内容主要包括受检者的临床特征、排便习惯、服药后排便次数和末次排便时间及检查前肠道准备自评结果, 采用单盲法并指定同一位内镜医师对受检者肠道准备情况进行波士顿肠道准备量表(Boston bowel preparation scale, BBPS)评分, 运用多因素分析探究肠道准备充分度的影响因素, 根据影响因素绘制列线图, 评估肠道准备充分度。结果根据BBPS评分, 674例受检者肠道准备充分, 349例受检者肠道准备不充分。多因素分析发现每周排便次数(OR=1.649, 95%CI:1.233～2.204, P=0.001)、服药后排便次数(OR=3.963, 95%CI:1.851～8.485, P<0.001)、服药后末次排便时间(OR=5.151, 95%CI:1.152～23.037, P=0.032)、检查前肠道准备自我评估(OR=8.2...     

术前预测结直肠癌淋巴结转移的临床-影像组学列线图的建立和验证

背景与目的：术前准确预测淋巴结转移对于结直肠癌患者的肿瘤分期、治疗决策、预后及复发等至关重要。建立和验证用于术前预测结直肠癌淋巴结转移的临床-影像组学组合模型。方法：收集复旦大学附属肿瘤医院收治的767例经病理学检查确诊为结直肠癌的患者（实验组537例，验证组230例）。然后纳入9个重要临床危险因素［年龄、性别、术前癌胚抗原（carcinoembryonic antigen，CEA）水平、术前糖类抗原19-9（carbohydrate antigen 19-9，CA19-9）水平、病理学分级、组织学类型、肿瘤位置、肿瘤大小和M分期］来构建临床模型；采用ANOVA、Relief和递归特征消除（recursive feature elimination，RFE）进行特征选择（包括临床危险因素、原发病灶和周围淋巴结的影像组学特征），通过逻辑回归分析建立各自的分类模型，并通过one-standard-error准则选择最优模型，然后组合最优模型下的临床危险因素、原发灶影像组学特征、周围淋巴结影像组学特征建立联合预测模型。接着使用受试者工作特征（receiver operating characteristic，ROC）曲线及曲线下面积（area under curve，AUC）来量化预测准确率。最后应用决策曲线分析（decision curve analysis，DCA）和列线图来评估该模型的临床应用价值。结果：临床-原发灶-周围淋巴结影像组学联合模型的AUC最高（0.743 0），为最佳模型。该临床-影像组学模型在实验队列和验证队列中都显示出良好的鉴别和校正能力。DCA表明，临床-影像组学列线图在临床上具有应用价值。结论：提出了一种基于影像组学特征和临床危险因素的临床-影像组学列线图，可用于结直肠癌患者术前预测淋巴结转移。     

Nomograms for colorectal cancer:A systematic review

AIM: To assist in the selection of suitable nomograms for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinicalpractice.METHODS: We conducted electronic searches for journal articles on colorectal cancer(CRC)-associated nomograms using the search terms colon/rectal/colorectal/nomogram. Of 174 articles initially found, we retrieved 28 studies in which a nomogram for CRC was developed.RESULTS: We discuss the currently available CRCassociated nomograms, including those that predict the oncological prognosis, the short-term outcome of treatments, such as surgery or neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy, and the future development of CRC. Developing nomograms always presents a dilemma. On the one hand, the desire to cover as wide a patient range as possible tends to produce nomograms that are too complex and yet have C-indexes that are not sufficiently high. Conversely, confining the target patients might impair the clinical applicability of constructed nomograms.CONCLUSION: The information provided in this review should be of use in selecting a nomogram suitable for obtaining desired predictions in daily clinical practice.