A Bayesian Approach for Incorporating the EQ-5D Visual Analog Scale When Estimating the Health-Related Quality of Life

ObjectivesThe EuroQoL 3-level version of EQ-5D and 5-level version of EQ-5D questionnaires are often used to quantify health states. They include ordinal responses across 5 health dimensions (EQ-5D index) and an EQ-visual analog scale (EQ-VAS) overall health rating. We investigated the value of incorporating the EQ-VAS to update health utility estimates using a Bayesian framework.MethodsWe created a joint bivariate normal EQ-VAS and EQ-5D index utility model and compared this to a univariate normal EQ-5D index utility model. We tested these models for 1026 Sri Lankan patients with chronic kidney disease and 94 Australian patients with wounds. We validated our approach by simulating EQ-VAS and EQ-5D index responses and applying our Bayesian model and then comparing the modeled estimates to our observed data.ResultsThe combined model showed a reduction in estimate uncertainty for all respondents. Compared with the EQ-5D index-only model, the mean utility for Sri Lankan respondents dropped from 0.556 (0.534-0.579) to 0.540 (0.521-0.559) in men and increased from 0.489 (0.461-0.518) to 0.528 (0.506-0.550) in women, with reduced credible interval width by 13% and 23%, respectively. The mean utility in Australian respondents moved from 0.715 (0.633-0.800) to 0.716 (0.652-0.782) in men, and 0.652 (0.581-0.723) to 0.652 (0.593-0.711) in women, with reduced credible interval width by 23% and 17%, respectively. The credible interval width for simulated data also narrowed, ranging from 8.3 to 8.5%.ConclusionsIncluding the EQ-VAS through Bayesian methods can add value by reducing requisite sample sizes and decision uncertainty using small amounts of additional data that is often collected but rarely used.     

Suprachoroidal Injection of Triamcinolone Acetonide Injectable Suspension for the Treatment of Macular Edema Associated With Uveitis in the United States: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

ObjectivesSuprachoroidal injection of triamcinolone acetonide is the first Food and Drug Administration–approved treatment for macular edema associated with uveitis. A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed comparing this treatment with best supportive care (BSC) for the management of this indication from US Medicare and commercial payer perspectives.MethodsA patient-level simulation was developed per the patient characteristics and changes in best-corrected visual acuity letter scores observed in a phase III study of triamcinolone acetonide (PEACHTREE). The wholesale acquisition cost of triamcinolone acetonide was $1650/injection; suprachoroidal injection cost was assumed at $200/injection. Healthcare costs were informed by a US claims–based analysis. Mortality risk associated with severe vision loss and blindness was modeled by applying a hazard ratio to all-cause mortality rates of the US general population. Health-related quality of life weights, obtained from a regression model fitted to the Visual Function Questionnaire-25 data from PEACHTREE, were applied based on the best-corrected visual acuity scores of both eyes. Costs (2020 US dollar) and benefits were discounted at 3% annually. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were estimated over a 10-year horizon.ResultsIn the base-case, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio comparing triamcinolone acetonide with BSC was $28 479 per quality-adjusted life-year gained. The wholesale acquisition cost for triamcinolone acetonide for suprachoroidal use was ～68%, ～56%, and ～27% below the willingness-to-pay thresholds of $150 000, $100 000, and $50 000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained, respectively. Results were robust in sensitivity and scenario analyses.ConclusionsTriamcinolone acetonide for suprachoroidal use is cost-effective compared with BSC for patients with macular edema associated with uveitis.     

Using Metamodeling to Identify the Optimal Strategy for Colorectal Cancer Screening

ObjectivesMetamodeling can address computational challenges within decision-analytic modeling studies evaluating many strategies. This article illustrates the value of metamodeling for evaluating colorectal cancer screening strategies while accounting for colonoscopy capacity constraints.MethodsIn a traditional approach, the best screening strategy was identified from a limited subset of strategies evaluated with the validated Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model. In a metamodeling approach, metamodels were fitted to this limited subset to evaluate all potentially plausible strategies and determine the best overall screening strategy. Approaches were compared based on the best screening strategy in life-years gained compared with no screening. Metamodel runtime and accuracy was assessed.ResultsThe metamodeling approach evaluated >40 000 strategies in <1 minute with high accuracy after 1 adaptive sampling step (mean absolute error: 0.0002 life-years) using 300 samples in total (generation time: 8 days). Findings indicated that health outcomes could be improved without requiring additional colonoscopy capacity. Obtaining similar insights using the traditional approach could require at least 1000 samples (generation time: 28 days). Suggested benefits from screening at ages <40 years require adequate validation of the underlying Adenoma and Serrated pathway to Colorectal CAncer model before making policy recommendations.ConclusionsMetamodeling allows rapid assessment of a vast set of strategies, which may lead to identification of more favorable strategies compared to a traditional approach. Nevertheless, metamodel validation and identifying extrapolation beyond the support of the original decision-analytic model are critical to the interpretation of results. The screening strategies identified with metamodeling support ongoing discussions on decreasing the starting age of colorectal cancer screening.     

情景模拟演练在儿科急诊新护士带教中的应用效果研究

目的研究在儿科急诊对新护士展开临床带教中,使用情景模拟演练教学法的实际应用效果。方法选择该院于2018年5月—2019年5月期间于该院儿科急诊中入岗新护士共计70名,设为该次实验对象。设立常规组与实验组后,将其平均分成两组并分别纳入作为对应组观察患者。其中常规组(2018年5—12月期间)的35名实习护士沿用传统带教模式展开教学,实验组(2019年1—5月期间)的35名实习护士沿用情景模拟演练模式展开教学。在两组同时期下收集各100例临床患者,在带教周期一月期间为其提供护理工作评价。并对其护士进科前后综合能力考评情况、护理技术考核成绩、护士带教护理满意度、患者满意度评价进行统计。结果进科前,两组对象综合能力考评能力于组间对比差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。进科后,实验组新护士综合能力考评成绩相比常规组更高,同时实验组护士的儿科护士护理技术考核明显优于常规组,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。相比较常规组,实验组新护士对带教满意度明显更高,同时对应组患者对护理工作的满意性更高,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。结论给予儿科急诊中入岗新护士情境教学法,对培养其岗前护理技能操作技能效率较高,同时能改变其患者护理满意性,加强新上岗护士综合能力,拉近护患之间关系,是较好的临床带教方法。     

登革热数学模型及其应用研究（Ⅱ）——利用数学模型评价不同措施对登革热的防治效应

利用我们建立的登革热数学模型,通过计算机对5种不同的防治措施和不同时间采取措施控制登革热流行的效应进行了模拟评价。结果显示,室内滞留喷洒对控制登革热的流行最为有效;清除孳生场所有一定效果,但视清除孳生场所的程度而定;而同时采用清除孳生场所和使用蚊帐防护的措施可收到较好的防治效果,而且费用可能较低;超低容量喷洒效果较差。模拟结果表明,同一种措施,即使只提前10天实施,效果也好得多。模拟还表明,在人群中,如果70％以上的人具有特异性免疫力,即可有效地阻止同型登革病毒的输入和流行。上述模拟结果将为现场流行病学工作提供有价值的参考,同时也显示了疾病数学模型的实际应用价值。     

化工过程在线模拟和优化的软件框架

首先讨论了在线优化和企业自动化水平的关系,接着描述了过程模型的开发和实现范例,并归纳了一个在线优化软件系统的功能需求,进而描述了一个面向程的模拟优化系统的主要组成部分,最后讨论了在线优化应用的结构以及和控制策略的关系。     

分子筛催化剂失活过程分析及评价方法

提出了将“前－后实验”和“连续实验”两种催速失活的实验方法结合起来的一种新的催化剂活性评价方法,可以较短的实验时间内,获得该催化剂比较全面、完整的活性衰退的信息。使用该评价方法,对ZSM－5分子筛催化剂AB－97催化苯与乙烯的烷基化反应的失活规律进行了实验研究,结果表明：在缓和条件与苛刻条件下,催化剂的失活规律有所不同。在实验基础上,结合Monte-Carlo模拟的方法,对此进行了机理分析,发现在不同的反应条件下,反应物在催化剂晶粒表面上吸附位置以及反应机理均不相同,同时证实了实验结果。     

居家模拟培训对老年髋关节置换患者康复效果的影响

目的探讨开展居家模拟培训提高老年髋关节置换患者康复的效果。方法按住院时间将老年髋关节置换患者162例分为对照组80例和观察组82例,对照组采取骨科常规护理方式进行康复指导,观察组在常规护理基础上由高级责任护士实施全程居家生活与出行路径的模拟培训。于入院时、术后1个月、3个月、6个月评价两组Harris髋关节功能评分与Barthel指数。结果观察组Harris髋关节功能评分及Barthel指数评分显著高于对照组(均P<0.01)。结论开展居家模拟培训有利于促进老年髋关节置换术后患者康复,提高日常生活能力。     

金银花颗粒在旋风分离器中的流场数值模拟分析

目的 针对金银花颗粒在旋风分离器中的运动行为过程进行研究,考察不同设计参数和操作工艺条件下,颗粒在设备内部的运动过程变化规律。方法 基于仿真模拟技术,考察受不同设备长径比、入口进气雷诺数、颗粒质量流量3个因素影响的金银花颗粒在分离器内的运动规律,并以金银花颗粒得粉率为验证指标参数,对模型可靠性进行了分析。结果 通过仿真模拟得到了各个不同工艺条件下的金银花颗粒运动轨迹分布,计算出了对应设备的颗粒得粉率。提出金银花颗粒分离的最佳工艺建议为设备长径比5∶1,入口进气雷诺数3.23×10⁴,颗粒质量流量80.1 mg/s,得到的金银花颗粒得粉率为96.30%。结论 为旋风分离器内金银花颗粒的有关研究提供指导,同时改善旋风分离器在控制和设计上的不足。     

新型枢椎椎板钉导向器的应用研究

目的:通过体外试验探讨新型枢椎椎板钉导向器的安全性及准确性。方法:选取2018年1月至2018年6月行颈椎三维CT的患者40例,男21例,女19例;身高165～180(172.9±9.5) cm,年龄38～55(51.1±12.8)岁,排除枢椎椎板缺损及发育不全患者。每例患者的颈椎三维CT数据制作两套3D打印标本,共80个颈椎标本,均用于体外置钉试验。根据置钉方式的不同,体外试验部分分为导向器置钉组40个和徒手置钉组40个。同时,在计算机上重建出该40例患者的颈椎三维模型,通过计算机模拟置钉,得到理想出针点数据与理想内倾角度,此为3D模拟置钉组(理想钉道),40例。在体外试验中,分别测量导向器置钉组、徒手置钉组置入螺钉的位置危险等级、出针点位置及内倾角度。并以出针点精确性及钉道内倾角度为基准,将导向器置钉组、徒手置钉组与3D模拟置钉组数据对比,并将各组数据行统计学分析以确定准确性。结果:导向组螺钉位置可接受的为75例,位置危险的为5例,可接受率为94%,双皮质率为93%。徒手组螺钉位置可接受为62例,位置危险为18例,可接受率为78%,双皮质率33%,两组比较差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。导向器置钉组与3D模拟置钉组的出针点精确性及钉道内倾角度比较,差异无统计学意义(P0.05),徒手置钉组与3D模拟置钉组出针点精确性及钉道内倾角度比较,差异有统计学意义(P0.05)。结论:本导向器为通用型,结构稳定,导向精确,操作简便,可同时置入双侧椎板钉,缩短置钉时间,同时可有效避免双向交叉螺钉的碰撞,增加双皮质率,有效提高枢椎椎板钉置钉的效率和安全性。