On estimands arising from misspecified semiparametric rate-based analysis of recurrent episodic conditions

Marginal rate-based analyses are widely used for the analysis of recurrent events in clinical trials. In many areas of application, the events are not instantaneous but rather signal the onset of a symptomatic episode representing a recurrent infection, respiratory exacerbation, or bout of acute depression. In rate-based analyses, it is unclear how to best handle the time during which individuals are experiencing symptoms and hence are not at risk. We derive the limiting value of the Nelson-Aalen estimator and estimators of the regression coefficients under a semiparametric rate-based model in terms of an underlying two-state process. We investigate the impact of the distribution of the episode durations, heterogeneity, and dependence on the asymptotic and finite sample properties of standard estimators. We also consider the impact of these features on power in trials designed to test intervention effects on rate functions. An application to a trial of individuals with herpes simplex virus is given for illustration.     

Outcomes of coronary artery bypass grafting in patients with heart failure with a midrange ejection fraction

BackgroundCoronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) improves survival in patients with heart failure and severely reduced left ventricular systolic function (LVEF). Limited data exist regarding adverse cardiovascular event rates after CABG in patients with heart failure with midrange ejection fraction (HFmrEF; LVEF > 40% and < 55%).MethodsWe analyzed data on isolated CABG patients from the Veterans Affairs national database (2010-2019). We stratified patients into control (normal LVEF and no heart failure), HFmrEF, and heart failure with reduced LVEF (HFrEF) groups. We compared all-cause mortality and heart failure hospitalization rates between groups with a Cox model and recurrent events analysis, respectively.ResultsIn 6533 veterans, HFmrEF and HFrEF was present in 1715 (26.3%) and 566 (8.6%) respectively; the control group had 4252 (65.1%) patients. HFrEF patients were more likely to have diabetes mellitus (59%), insulin therapy (36%), and previous myocardial infarction (31%). Anemia was more prevalent in patients with HFrEF (49%) as was a lower serum albumin (mean, 3.6 mg/dL). Compared with the control group, a higher risk of death was observed in the HFmrEF (hazard ratio [HR], 1.3 [1.2-1.5)] and HFrEF (HR, 1.5 [1.2-1.7]) groups. HFmrEF patients had the higher risk of myocardial infarction (subdistribution HR, 1.2 [1-1.6]; P = .04). Risk of heart failure hospitalization was higher in patients with HFmrEF (HR, 4.1 [3.5-4.7]) and patients with HFrEF (HR, 7.2 [6.2-8.5]).ConclusionsHeart failure with midrange ejection fraction negatively affects survival after CABG. These patients also experience higher rates myocardial infarction and heart failure hospitalization.     

甲状腺功能减退与子宫内膜癌的相关性分析

 目的 探讨甲状腺功能减退与子宫内膜癌（EC）的关系及EC患者癌组织分化程度和雌激素受体（ER）、孕激素受体（PR）的表达与甲状腺功能之间的关系。方法 选取2015年1月—2018年7月我院收治的EC患者113例，同时随机选取年龄与EC组相匹配的此段时间内我院健康体检的妇女156例作为对照组，检测血清促甲状腺激素（TSH）、甲状腺激素（FT4）。比较两组间甲状腺功能减退的患病率，并利用免疫组织化学法测定EC患者手术切除标本的癌组织中ER、PR的表达，分析EC患者癌组织分化程度及癌组织中ER、PR的表达与甲状腺功能之间的相关性。结果 EC组甲状腺功能减退的患病率较对照组高（P<0.000）。低分化EC患者的TSH高于中分化EC患者（P=0.025）。EC手术切除标本的癌组织中ER、PR阳性与阴性患者的TSH、FT4差异无统计学意义（P>0.05）。结论 甲状腺功能减退与EC具有相关性。     

Pump Speed Optimization in Patients Implanted With the HeartMate 3 Device

Background

Pump speed optimization in patients implanted with a ventricular assist device represents a major challenge during the follow-up period. We present our findings on whether combined invasive hemodynamic ramp tests and cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPX) can help optimize patient management.

Trade-offs between acquired and innate immune defenses in humans

Immune defenses provide resistance against infectious disease that is critical to survival. But immune defenses are costly, and limited resources allocated to immunity are not available for other physiological or developmental processes. We propose a framework for explaining variation in patterns of investment in two important subsystems of anti-pathogen defense: innate (non-specific) and acquired (specific) immunity. The developmental costs of acquired immunity are high, but the costs of maintenance and activation are relatively low. Innate immunity imposes lower upfront developmental costs, but higher operating costs. Innate defenses are mobilized quickly and are effective against novel pathogens. Acquired responses are less effective against novel exposures, but more effective against secondary exposures due to immunological memory. Based on their distinct profiles of costs and effectiveness, we propose that the balance of investment in innate versus acquired immunity is variable, and that this balance is optimized in response to local ecological conditions early in development. Nutritional abundance, high pathogen exposure and low signals of extrinsic mortality risk during sensitive periods of immune development should all favor relatively higher levels of investment in acquired immunity. Undernutrition, low pathogen exposure, and high mortality risk should favor innate immune defenses. The hypothesis provides a framework for organizing prior empirical research on the impact of developmental environments on innate and acquired immunity, and suggests promising directions for future research in human ecological immunology.     

补阳还五汤加伸筋草治疗脑梗死后痉挛型偏瘫疗效研究

目的:探讨补阳还五汤重用伸筋草治疗脑梗死后痉挛型偏瘫的作用。方法:收集脑梗死后痉挛型偏瘫患者共88例,分为两组,对照组44例,西医治疗加康复训练和补阳还五汤治疗; 研究组44例,西医治疗加康复训练及补阳还五汤重用伸筋草治疗。比较治疗前后患者患侧上下肢肌张力、临床疗效、NIHSS、日常生活能力Barthel指数以及上下肢运动功能和不良反应发生率。结果:治疗后,两组患者患侧上下肢肌张力≤1级者占比均升高,且研究组中≤1级者占比均高于对照组,组间比较有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组临床疗效等级分布和总有效率比较,差异有统计学意义(P<0.05)。治疗后两组患者NIHSS评分均降低,且研究组NIHSS评分低于对照组,治疗后两组患者Barthel指数和患侧上下肢FMA评分均升高,且研究组均高于对照组,组间比较有统计学意义(P<0.05)。两组不良反应发生率比较,差异无统计学意义(P>0.05)。结论:补阳还五汤重用伸筋草能够显著降低患者患侧上下肢肌张力,改善临床疗效和神经功能缺损,提高患者日常生活能力和患侧运动功能,且安全性良好。     

Rotavirus,vaccine failure or diagnostic error?

Immunochromatography (ICG) is highly used in clinical settings for rotavirus (RV) diagnosis. The specificity of the tests differs by brand type and is not 100%, therefore its use when the prevalence of the disease is low (i.e. in vaccinated children) may result in a proportion of false positive diagnoses.In some areas, vaccine effectiveness studies or surveillance is done using ICG. Our objective was to estimate the validity of ICG test in vaccinated children, and estimate the number of false positive results in the Valencian Region of Spain, where all RV infections are diagnosed using ICG and are not confirmed by PCR.Population based registries were used to identify all results from the RV antigen tests performed between January 2008 and June 2012 in children under 37 months. Hospitalization and vaccination status of the patients were obtained by linking different databases through a unique identification number. The Positive Predictive Value of the ICG test depending on the vaccination status of the child, hospitalization and the rotavirus season was estimated by a Bayesian model of latent classes.Of the 48,833 tests with valid results, 9429 were done in vaccinated children, and of those 3963 (42%) during the rotavirus season. The prevalence of positive results in vaccinated varied from 2.9 to 21.4% of the tests depending on the hospitalization and seasonality. The estimated PPV also varied from 27.1 to 84.6% when stratified by these two parameters. Globally it is calculated that approximately 267 out of the 520 (51.3%) positives in vaccinated children were false positive tests.The large percentage of false positives, due to an excessive number of tests in vaccinated and out of the RV season, if interpreted as vaccine failures, can cause a loss of confidence in the vaccine and lower the estimates of vaccine effectiveness.