SARIMA-GRNN组合模型和SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用

目的 探讨SARIMA-GRNN组合模型和SARIMA模型在流行性腮腺炎发病率预测中的应用,并对他们的预测效果进行比较。 方法 选取2004—2016年上海市流行性腮腺炎逐月发病率资料,基于2004年1月—2016年6月的数据建立SARIMA模型。利用2004—2015年流行性腮腺炎的SARIMA模型拟合值与实际值、时间因子训练SARIMA-GRNN组合模型,并运用2016年1—6月数据进行验证,筛选模型最优平滑因子(spread)。采用2016年7—12月数据进行回代验证模型的外推预测效果。评价指标包括平均绝对误差百分比(MAPE)、平均误差率(MER)、均方误差(MSE)和平均绝对误差(MAE)。 结果 SARIMA(0,0,2)(0,1,1)₁₂为最优SARIMA模型。SARIMA-GRNN组合模型spread 值为0.0037。SARIMA模型、SARIMA-GRNN组合模型拟合的MAPE、MER、MSE和MAE依次分别为16.19%、15.18%、0.14、0.25;2.93%、2.28%、0.01、0.04。SARIMA模型、SARIMA-GRNN组合模型预测的MAPE、MER、MSE和MAE依次分别为17.40%、17.26%、0.03、0.16;15.24%、15.50%、0.02、0.14。 结论 SARIMA-GRNN组合模型拟合及预测效果均优于SARIMA模型,但预测精度有待进一步提高。     

Comparative Anatomy of Mouse and Human Nail Units

Recent studies of mice with hair defects have resulted in major contributions to the understanding of hair disorders. To use mouse models as a tool to study nail diseases, a basic understanding of the similarities and differences between the human and mouse nail unit is required. In this study we compare the human and mouse nail unit at the macroscopic and microscopic level and use immunohistochemistry to determine the keratin expression patterns in the mouse nail unit. Both species have a proximal nail fold, cuticle, nail matrix, nail bed, nail plate, and hyponychium. Distinguishing features are the shape of the nail and the presence of an extended hyponychium in the mouse. Expression patterns of most keratins are similar. These findings indicate that the mouse nail unit shares major characteristics with the human nail unit and overall represents a very similar structure, useful for the investigation of nail diseases and nail biology. Anat Rec, 296:521–532, 2013. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Toward a highly‐detailed 3D pelvic model: Approaching an ultra‐specific level for surgical simulation and anatomical education

The surgical anatomy of the pelvis is highly complex. Anorectal and urogenital dysfunctions occur frequently after pelvic oncological surgery and are mainly caused by surgical damage of the autonomic nerves. A highly‐detailed 3D pelvic model could increase the anatomical knowledge and form a solid basis for a surgical simulation system. Currently, pelvic surgeons still rely on the preoperative interpretation of 2D diagnostic images. With a 3D simulation system, pelvic surgeons could simulate and train different scenes to enhance their preoperative knowledge and improve surgical outcome. To substantially enrich pelvic surgery and anatomical education, such a system must provide insight into the relation between the autonomic network, the lymphatic system, and endopelvic fasciae. Besides CT and MR images, Visible Human Datasets (VHDs) are widely used for 3D modeling, due to the high degree of anatomical detail represented in the cryosectional images. However, key surgical structures cannot be fully identified using VHDs and radiologic imaging techniques alone. Several unsolved anatomical problems must be elucidated as well. Therefore, adequate analysis on a microscopic level is inevitable. The development of a comprehensive anatomical atlas of the pelvis is no straightforward task. Such an endeavor involves several anatomical and technical challenges. This article surveys all existing 3D pelvic models, focusing on the level of anatomical detail. The use of VHDs in the 3D reconstruction of a highly‐detailed pelvic model and the accompanying anatomical challenges will be discussed Clin. Anat., 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Extending the Lessons of Educational Television with Young American Children

As the availability of children's educational television has increased, initiatives to expand the educational impact of programs have emerged. One such initiative is experiential mediation, a form of mediation in which the viewer physically engages with materials designed to extend the program's educational content. Limited research on the effectiveness of experiential mediation exists. A quasi-experiment was conducted with 138 American children (M = 5.32 years) to evaluate the effectiveness of such mediation with the literacy-based television program Between the Lions. Viewing plus mediation was hypothesized to provide greater support for literacy skills than no viewing or unaided viewing. Further, mediation that incorporated character-branded materials was hypothesized to be superior to mediation that relied upon generic materials. Results suggest that the benefits of experiential mediation may be tied to (1) the connection between the mediation materials and television content and (2) the complexity of the educational content.     

临床护理路径在脑梗死患者护理中的应用

目的:探讨临床护理路径在住院脑梗死患者护理中的应用效果.方法:将86例脑梗死患者按随机数字表法分为路径组和对照组各43例,路径组采取临床护理路径指导下的护理服务模式,对照组采用传统的整体护理模式.结果:路径组患者对疾病相关知识的掌握程度、出院后自护能力和护理服务满意度均高于对照组(P＜0.05);路径组住院时间和医疗费用均少于对照组(P＜0.05).结论:临床护理路径指导下的护理服务模式能促进脑梗死患者疾病的康复,缩短了住院时间,节省了住院费用.     

Modeling the Impact of PrEP Programs for Adolescent Sexual Minority Males Based on Empirical Estimates for the PrEP Continuum of Care

PurposePre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP)—an effective and safe intervention to prevent HIV transmission—was recently approved by the Food and Drug Administration for use by adolescents. Informed by studies of sexual behavior and PrEP adherence, retention, and promotion, we model the potential impact of PrEP use among at-risk adolescent sexual minority males.MethodsWe simulate an HIV epidemic among men who have sex with men (MSM) aged 13–39. We assume adult MSM ages 19–39 have had PrEP available for 3 years with 20% coverage among eligible MSM based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines. PrEP interventions for ages 16–18 are then simulated using adherence and retention profiles drawn from the ATN113 and Enhancing Preexposure Prophylaxis in Community studies across a range of uptake parameters (10%–100%). Partnerships across age groups were modeled using parameterizations from the RADAR study. We compare the percent of incident infections averted (impact), person-years on PrEP per infection averted (efficiency), and changes in prevalence over 10 years.ResultsAs compared to no PrEP use, baseline PrEP adherence and retention among adolescent sexual minority males drawn from the ATN113 and Enhancing Preexposure Prophylaxis in Community studies averted from 2.8% to 41.0% of HIV infections depending on the fraction of eligible adolescent sexual minority males that initiated PrEP at their annual health-care visit. Improved adherence and retention achieved with an array of focused interventions from real-world settings increased the percent of infections averted by as much as 26%–70%.ConclusionsEmpirically demonstrated improvements in the PrEP continuum of care in response to existing interventions can substantially reduce incident HIV infections among adolescent sexual minority males.     

Curcumin enhances anti-tumor immune response in tongue squamous cell carcinoma

PurposeThis study evaluated the role of anti-tumor immune response of curcumin on tongue squamous cell carcinama (TSCC).Experimental designCell lines (Cal 27, FaDu) and animal model (4NQO mice model) were uesd in this study. The MTT assay was used to detecte cell proliferation. The Western blotting, immunohistochemistry and immunofluorescence were used to examine the protein expression. The flow cytometry was performed to determine the number of Treg and MDSC.ResultsThe expression of PD-L1 and p-STAT3^Y705 were does-dependently inhibited in Fadu and Cal 27 cell line. The results of in vivo demonstrated that curcumin significantly attenuated tumor growth in 4NQO mice model. The expression of PD-L1 and p-STAT3^Y705 were similarly decreased in vivo. Moreover, the anti-tumor immune response was remarkably improved after curcumin treatment through increasing CD8 positive T cells and decreasing Tregs and MDSCs.ConclusionsCurcumin treatment resulted in inhibition of PD-L1 and p-STAT3^Y705 expression both in vitro and in vivo. Moreover, the immunosuppressive tumor microenvironment was changed after curcumin treatment. These data suggested that curcumin could effectively promote anti-tumor immune response in TSCC.     

2011年深圳市光明新区婴儿喂养方式现状调查

目的了解光明新区婴儿喂养方式现状,比较独生子女与非独生子女之间的差异,研究两个群体有效的营养行为干预模式。方法 2011年7月1～8日在深圳市光明新区社区儿童保健门诊,对330名0～3岁散居婴幼儿的主要照顾者进行回顾性调查,调查表由医务人员填写,主要内容包括婴幼儿基本情况、喂养现状及补充食品添加情况,以及家长关于婴儿期喂养、营养知识和行为等。结果独生子女家庭年均收入与非独生子女家庭年均收入差异均无统计学意义（P〉0.05）;独生子女母乳喂养率为35.13%,非独生子女为76.08%（P〈0.05）;断奶时间：独生子女为4.10月,非独生子女为8.08月（P〈0.05）;6个月龄时独生子女补充食品添加占29.87%,非独生子女占19.19%（P〈0.01）,两人群补充食品添加种类和频率差异均有统计学意义。结论科学合理的喂养方式取决于主要抚养人的喂养行为以及母亲的文化程度,家庭收入不是科学喂养的主要障碍,独生子女补充食物添加及喂养方式更为科学合理,分层次践行科学育儿中心-社区-家庭的干预模式。