Impact ofTemperature onMortality inThree Major Chinese Cities

Objective To study the relation between temperature and mortality by estimating the temperature-related mortality in Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou. Methods Data of daily mortality, weather and air pollution in the three cities were collected. A distributed lag nonlinear model was established and used in analyzing the effects of temperature on mortality. Current and future net temperature-related mortality was estimated. Results The association between temperature and mortality was J-shaped, with an increased death risk of both hot and cold temperature in these cities. The effects of cold temperature on health lasted longer than those of hot temperature. The projected temperature-related mortality increased with the decreased cold-related mortality. The mortality was higher in Guangzhou than in Beijing and Shanghai. Conclusion The impact of temperature on health varies in the 3 cities of China, which may have implications for climate policy making in China.     

多时相中巴资源卫星遥感图像应用于钉螺孳生地水体监测

目的探讨基于多时相中巴资源卫星02星(CBERS 02)数据监测钉螺孳生地水体变化的可能性。方法收集湖南省安乡县2003 12 20、2004 02 10、2004 04 02、2004 06 19、2004 08 10和2004 10 27 6幅连续的双月间隔的CBERS 02影像,基于归一化水体指数提取各时相河流和洲滩水体,计算水域面积,确定遥感时相。结果安乡县河流和洲滩水体的动态变化基本符合"冬陆夏水"的规律,6月因为涨水,水域面积达到最大,8月开始下降,4月面积最小。丰水期和枯水期的遥感图像分别确定为6月和4月。结论多时相遥感数据可以动态监测河流和洲滩水体的变化,有助于正确选择丰水期和枯水期影像数据,为其他研究选择遥感图像提供了方法学参考。     

2008-2012年马鞍山市某地区的昼夜温差与每日死亡的时间序列研究

目的 调查昼夜温差对死亡率的影响.方法 搜集马鞍山市气象部门和马鞍山市花山区卫生局提供的2008年1月1日～2012年12月31日每日的死亡数量和气象数据,包括最高温度,最低温度,平均温度,相对湿度.使用泊松广义线性回归模型结合分布滞后非线性模型(distributed lag non-linear model,DLNM),控制平均温度,相对湿度,季节性和长期趋势,分析昼夜温差对死亡影响的滞后效应以及累积效应.结果 马鞍山市花山区2008-2012年间的因病死亡总数为8 111例(去除意外死亡数),其中男性5 193 (64％)例,大于65岁的5 742(71％)例.该期间最高平均温度为34.5℃,最低平均温度为-3.9℃.昼夜温差的变化范围为l℃～ 25℃.昼夜温差每增加5℃能够显著性增加人群4％的死亡发生风险(RR=1.04,95％ CI:1.02 ～ 1.07).在不同性别和不同年龄组之间,男性和老人(≥65岁)更容易受到昼夜温差的影响.昼夜温差每增加5℃导致男性和老人死亡的相对危险度分别为1.05(95％ CI:1.02 ～1.09);1.05(95％ CI:1.02～1.08).结论 较大的昼夜温差能够显著性的增加死亡风险,并存在一定的滞后性;男性和老人的死亡风险更容易受到昼夜温差的影响.当昼夜温差较大时,应积极采取有效的应对措施来防止其带来的严重影响.     

Acute effect of ambient air pollution on heart failure in Guangzhou,China

Background

Heart failure (HF) is a global public health problem of increasing importance. The association between acute exposure to air pollution and HF has been well established in developed countries, but little evidence was available in developing countries where air pollution levels were much higher. We conducted a time-series study to investigate the short-term association between air pollution and overall emergency ambulance dispatches (EAD) due to HF in Guangzhou, China.

Methods

Daily data of EAD due to HF from 1 January 2008 to 31 December 2012 were obtained from Guangzhou Emergency Center. We applied the over-dispersed Poisson generalized addictive model to analyze the associations after controlling for the seasonality, day of the week and weather conditions.

Results

We identified a total of 3375 EAD for HF. A 10-μg/m³ increase in the present-day concentrations of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter of less than 10 μm, sulfur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide corresponded to increases of 3.54% [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.35%, 5.74%], 5.29% (95% CI: 2.28%, 8.30%) and 4.34% (95% CI: 1.71%, 6.97%) in daily EAD for HF, respectively. The effects of air pollution on acute HF were restricted on the concurrent day and in the cool seasons.

Conclusions

Our results provided the first population-based evidence in Mainland China that outdoor air pollution could trigger the exacerbation of HF.     

浙江省食物中毒死亡人数的时间序列分析

目的探讨应用时间序列ARIMA模型进行食物中毒死亡人数预测的可行性。方法应用时间序列分析1992-2001年浙江省10年各个季度食物中毒发生情况，同时进行ARIMA模型拟合，并用所得的模型对2002-2007年各个季度的食物中毒死亡人数情况进行预测，将预测值与实际值进行比较。结果建立了浙江省食物中毒死亡人数的ARIMA模型方程，显示75.0％实际值在预测值的可信区间内。结论时间序列模型在食物中毒死亡人数预测中具有一定的价值。     

The effect of deviations from trends in national income on mortality: The Danish and USA data revisited

The issue of whether deviations from trends in national income predict mortality in Denmark is revisited. Earlier research has yielded mixed results. The hypothesis that increases, but not decreases, in inflation-adjusted per capita income are related to decreases in age standardized mortality is tested using methods responsive to criticisms of earlier work. Results support the hypothesis. The implications of the findings for research and policy are briefly discussed.     

Applications of time-series analysis: a case study on the impact of computer tomography

Time-series techniques are applied to an analysis of the use of neurodiagnostic procedures in Athens, to evaluate the effect of the introduction of computer tomography. Results confirm the usefulness of such techniques, but illustrate the dependence of their successful application on the nature and quality of data.     

Inpatient expenditures on alcohol-attributed diseases and alcohol tax policy: a nationwide analysis in Taiwan from 1996 to 2010

ObjectivesTo assess the two opposing effects of alcohol tax policy interventions (tax rate increase in 2002 and decrease in 2009) on hospitalization in monetary terms of alcohol-attributed diseases (AADs) in Taiwan.Study designAn interrupted time-series analysis.MethodsAdmissions data from 1996 to 2010 were retrieved from the National Health Insurance Research Database claims file and analysed in this study. Data for 430,388 males and 34,874 females aged 15 or above who were admitted due to an AAD were collected. An interrupted time-series analysis examining the effects of the implementation of alcohol tax policy on quarterly adjusted hospital inpatient charges (HICs) for AADs was employed.ResultsThe study showed significant (p < 0.001) changes in the adjusted HICs for AADs in 2002. Quarterly HICs showed an abrupt 14.8% decline (i.e., a 1.3 million US dollar reduction) after the first tax policy was implemented. No change in quarterly HICs for AADs was found after the alcohol tax increase. The total cost of treating these AAD inpatients over the course of the 15-year period was 640.9 million US dollars. Each inpatient with an AAD costs an average of $900-$2000 depending on the patient's sex and age with the cost increasing gradually after the two tax interventions. More than 80% of the HICs were attributed to alcoholic liver diseases. Psychoses accounted for 6%–18% of the total HICs. Alcohol abuse and alcohol poisoning accounted for less than 2% of the total HICs.ConclusionsThis study provides evidence that alcohol taxation has resulted in an immediate reduction of medical expenditures related to AADs. The policy of increasing alcohol tax rates may have favourable influences on health care resources related to treating AADs.