Establishing the Cost-Effectiveness of New Pharmaceuticals under Conditions of Uncertainty—When Is There Sufficient Evidence?

Decisions about which health-care interventions represent adequate value to collectively funded health-care systems are as widespread as they are unavoidable. In the case of new pharmaceuticals, many countries now require formal cost-effectiveness analysis to inform this decision-making process. This requires evidence on parameters associated with health-related utilities, treatment effects, resource use, and costs, for which data from available regulatory trials are invariably absent or highly uncertain. This uncertainty results from a number of factors including the predominance of intermediate end points in the clinical evidence-base and the limited period of follow-up of patients in clinical studies. Despite these imperfections in the evidence base, decisions about whether new pharmaceuticals are sufficiently cost-effective for reimbursement cannot be side-stepped. Data limitations do, however, require the use of rigorous analytical methods to support decision making. Probabilistic decision models and value of information analysis offer a means of structuring decision problems, synthesizing all available data, characterizing the uncertainty in the decision, quantifying the cost of uncertainty, and establishing the expected value of perfect information. This analytical framework is important because it addresses two fundamental questions about new pharmaceuticals. First, is the product expected to be cost-effective on the basis of existing evidence? Second, is additional research concerning the product itself cost-effective? In addressing these questions, the analytical framework can establish when sufficient evidence exists to sustain a claim for a new pharmaceutical to be cost-effective.     

Development of the Qualeffo–31, an osteoporosis-specific quality-of-life questionnaire

Introduction Vertebral deformities are a common consequence of osteoporosis and are known to decrease quality of life. The Qualeffo–41 is a quality-of-life questionnaire especially developed for measuring quality of life in patients with vertebral deformities. It consists of 41 questions arranged in five domains: pain, physical function, social function, general health perception, and mental function. The objectives of this study were: (1) to develop a shorter version of the Qualeffo–41 by removing redundant questions; and (2) to investigate the scale characteristics, reliability, and validity of this shorter version. Methods The study was performed using data from the Qualeffo validation study and the Multiple Outcomes of Raloxifene Evaluation (MORE) study. The analyses were performed in patients with vertebral deformities (n=579). Factor analysis on polychoric correlations and an item response theory (IRT) model, i.e., the generalized partial credit model (GPCM), were used to create a shorter version of Qualeffo–41. Using GPCM, scoring weights were computed for all items. Results Three items were removed from the data set because of too many missing values. Factor analysis identified three instead of five domains: (1) pain, (2) physical function, and (3) mental function. Five items had factor loadings <0.4 and were not included in the GPCM. After excluding several items, the domains pain (four items), physical function (18 items), and mental function (nine items) showed a good, reasonable, and excellent fit, respectively. This indicates that the mental function domain and the pain domain are more unidimensional than the physical function domain. All three domains showed a very high correlation (r ≥0.95) with the corresponding domains of the Qualeffo–41. Conclusions Qualeffo–31 was developed, consisting of three domains with a reasonable to excellent fit to the GPCM. Although the fit to the GPCM supports the construct validity of the Qualeffo–31, validation in a new study should be performed before using it in practice.     

我对子午流注阴阳盛衰转换的认识

阐述了时相与阴阳的关系，阴阳昼夜的盛衰转换与经脉循行、气血流注密切相关；对传统流注说和任督为主的阴阳循环说进行了分析，认为子午流注阴阳盛衰转换在妇科学中有重要意义，子午流注所指出的4个较重要的时期与月经周期中的4期(行经期、经后期、经间排卵期、经前期)相关。重视研究日相阴阳太极钟的变化，将能更加深入地认识月经周期中阴阳消长转化的规律变化，从而推动中医妇科学向前发展。     

数字化校园构建之理论基础探讨

从总结数字化建设的实际出发,从建构主义教学理论、教育传播理论和管理科学理论三个方面,较为全面地论述了构建数字化校园的理论基础,并探讨了在数字化校园建设中如何应用理论来指导实际工作.     

论中医病因、致病因素、邪气、邪之关系

邪是一切不正常、不正当的因素,邪气是邪的一部分,主要指六气异常以及疫疠之气等外感因素。两者可以独立于人体而存在,也可以进入人体,成为可能导致疾病的因素,即致病因素,邪(邪气)进入人体是致病因素,未进入人体不是致病因素。未导致疾痛的致病因素不是病因,已经引起疾病的致病因素是病因。     

Emergency Medicine Practitioner Knowledge and Use of Decision Rules for the Evaluation of Patients with Suspected Pulmonary Embolism: Variations by Practice Setting and Training Level

Background Several clinical decision rules (CDRs) have been validated for pretest probability assessment of pulmonary embolism (PE), but the authors are unaware of any data quantifying and characterizing their use in emergency departments. Objectives To characterize clinicians' knowledge of and attitudes toward two commonly used CDRs for PE. Methods By using a modified Delphi approach, the authors developed a two‐page paper survey including 15 multiple‐choice questions. The questions were designed to determine the respondents' familiarity, frequency of use, and comprehension of the Canadian and Charlotte rules. The survey also queried the frequency of use of unstructured (gestalt) pretest probability assessment and reasons why physicians choose not to use decision rules. The surveys were sent to physicians, physician assistants, and medical students at 32 academic and community hospitals in the United States and the United Kingdom. Results Respondents included 555 clinicians; 443 (80%) work in academic practice, and 112 (20%) are community based. Significantly more academic practitioners (73%) than community practitioners (49%) indicated familiarity with at least one of the two decision rules. Among all respondents familiar with a rule, 50% reported using it in more than half of applicable cases. A significant number of these respondents could not correctly identify a key component of the rule (23% for the Charlotte rule and 43% for the Canadian rule). Fifty‐seven percent of all respondents indicated use of gestalt rather than a decision rule in more than half of cases. Conclusions Academic clinicians were more likely to report familiarity with either of these two specific decision rules. Only one half of all clinicians reporting familiarity with the rules use them in more than 50% of applicable cases. Spontaneous recall of the specific elements of the rules was low to moderate. Future work should consider clinical gestalt in the evaluation of patients with possible PE.     

SMB色谱分离过程的建模与优化

基于物料平衡理论建立了SMB色谱分离过程的理想数学模型。以提高产品纯度和叫率为目标，依据Massimo三角形理论，研究了主要操作参数对SMB性能的影响。针对具体的分离象进行了仿真和操作条件寻优，并以此指导实际分离实验，得到满意的结果。说明了简化的模型在操作优化、参数设计和分离预测中的作用。     

Insults to the body civil: Mistreatment of elderly in two Plains Indian tribes

The mistreatment of elderly is subject to various social constructions. On two geographically distinct Plains Indian Reservations which we call Lone Mountain and Abundant Lands, the abuse or neglect of elderly is construed as a health problem which is a dysfunction of the community as a whole. Both physical abuse and neglect are more common on the Lone Mountain Reservation, occurring in association with other indicators of community disorganization such as unemployment and substance abuse. On the Abundant Lands Reservation physical abuse was categorically denied and what neglect existed appeared to be a function of role strain, geographic dispersal, climate and terrain. We attribute differences in the prevalence of mistreatment of elders to variations in economic opportunities for younger residents. Examining the historical and present contexts of intergenerational relationships on the reservations, we discuss the implications of this study for social exchange theory and policy applications.This research was supported by the Gerontological Society of America AppliedThis research was supported by the Gerontological Society of America AppliedThis research was supported by the Gerontological Society of America AppliedThis research was supported by the Gerontological Society of America AppliedThis research was supported by the Gerontological Society of America AppliedThis research was supported by the Gerontological Society of America Applied     

以中医神志学说辨析百合病

运用神魂魄意志五神与五藏、五官、五体的配属关系．结合文献对百合病命名、病位、症状、病机及愈期判断加以探讨。提出百合病属中医神志失和类病变，由热病伤阴，余邪未尽．心肺阴虚，神志失养，加之情怀不畅，气郁不舒，百脉失调，形神失和而发病。     

常规医疗设备招标存在问题的思考和对策--决策学多属性效用理论的实践探索

通过对常规医疗设备招标存在问题的思考,采用决策学多属性效用理论作为一种对策方法,并在实际操作中进行了尝试探索,以取得更好的效果.