Predicting Survival for Chimeric Antigen Receptor T-Cell Therapy: A Validation of Survival Models Using Follow-Up Data From ZUMA-1

ObjectivesSurvival extrapolation for chimeric antigen receptor T-cell therapies is challenging, owing to their unique mechanistic properties that translate to complex hazard functions. Axicabtagene ciloleucel is indicated for the treatment of relapse or refractory diffuse large B-cell lymphoma after 2 or more lines of therapy based on the ZUMA-1 trial. Four data snapshots are available, with minimum follow-up of 12, 24, 36, and 48 months. This analysis explores how survival extrapolations for axicabtagene ciloleucel using ZUMA-1 data can be validated and compared.MethodsThree different parametric modeling approaches were applied: standard parametric, spline-based, and cure-based models. Models were compared using a range of metrics, across the 4 data snapshot, including visual fit, plausibility of long-term estimates, statistical goodness of fit, inspection of hazard plots, point-estimate accuracy, and conditional survival estimates.ResultsStandard and spline-based parametric extrapolations were generally incapable of fitting the ZUMA-1 data well. Cure-based models provided the best fit based on the earliest data snapshot, with extrapolations remaining consistent as data matured. At 48 months, the maximum survival overestimate was 8.3% (Gompertz mixture-cure model) versus the maximum underestimate of 33.5% (Weibull standard parametric model).ConclusionsWhere a plateau in the survival curve is clinically plausible, cure-based models may be helpful in making accurate predictions based on immature data. The ability to reliably extrapolate from maturing data may reduce delays in patient access to potentially lifesaving treatments. Additional research is required to understand how models compare in broader contexts, including different treatments and therapeutic areas.     

Dry eye in chronic stroke patients with hemiplegia: A cross-sectional study

ABSTRACT

Objective: Dry eye is reported to be associated with several neurological diseases. The aim of this study is to evaluate the patients with hemiplegia after stroke for dry eye and compare their results with a control group.

Materials and methods: Forty-five patients with hemiplegia and 45 individuals as the control group were included in the study. Tear function tests (Schirmer and tear breakup time) and a dry eye questionnaire for dry eye symptoms (ocular surface disease index) were performed and the results of the two groups were compared.

Results: Schirmer test results were significantly lower in the post-stroke hemiplegia group compared to the control group (11.3 ± 8.2 mm and 20.6 ± 11.6 mm, respectively, p < .001). Tear breakup time results were significantly lower in the post-stroke hemiplegia group compared to the control group (7.9 ± 3.1 s and 12.1 ± 4.3 s, respectively, p < .001). Ocular surface disease index scores were not significantly different between hemiplegia and control groups (21.6 ± 20.0 and 19.8 ± 13.9, respectively, p = .635). Schirmer scores lower than 10 mm (60% and 30%, p < .001) and tear breakup time results lower than 10 s (65.6% and 28.9%, p < .001) were also higher in the hemiplegia group compared to control group.

Conclusion: We found lower Schirmer test and tear breakup time results and similar OSDI scores in hemiplegia patients compared to controls. Hemiplegia patients may have dry eye without typical symptoms. This should be taken into consideration in the follow-up and rehabilitation of post-stroke hemiplegia patients.     

SARIMA模型在苏州市肺结核发病预测中的应用

目的 建立苏州市肺结核发病的SARIMA模型并预测发病,为苏州市肺结核防控提供参考。方法 收集结核病信息管理系统（新）中苏州市2010年1月—2018年12月肺结核月发病数,通过时间序列分析建立SARIMA模型并预测苏州市2019年肺结核的发病情况。结果 苏州市肺结核发病数具有明显的季节周期性,每年的发病最高峰为5月,发病最低谷为2月。苏州市肺结核发病数的最佳拟合模型为SARIMA (0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂,AIC=9.590,SBC=9.644,模型参数均具有统计学意义,模型残差为白噪声序列,模型的预测值与实际值平均绝对百分比误差MAPE=7.943%,模型预测精度较高。预测苏州市2019年肺结核发病数为3 467例,月发病数平均值为289例,发病水平较2018年略有下降。结论 SARIMA(0,1,1)×(0,1,1)₁₂模型能较好拟合出苏州市肺结核发病数的时间变化趋势,可应用于苏州市肺结核月发病数的短期预测。     

A comparison of the academic impact of plastic surgery units in the United Kingdom and Ireland using bibliometric analysis

Academic output is just one aspect of a successful career as a plastic surgeon. However, for those with a strong interest in academia, the academic output of a department will likely be a key factor when deciding how to rank jobs. The aim of this study was to quantify and rank the academic output of plastic surgery units across the UK and Ireland. The Institute for Scientific Information (ISI) Web of Science Bibliometric analysis tool was used to collate cumulative (1950–2016), 10 year (2006–2016) and 3 years (2013–2015) research output data for plastic surgery units in the UK and Ireland. Sixty-six plastic surgery units were identified. Departments were ranked for each time period according to the number of papers produced, number of citations (Nc) and h-index (a measure of the impact of scientific output). The top 3 departments for number of papers in the last 10 years were The Royal Free Hospital, London (226) Broomfield Hospital, Chelmsford (218), and Morriston Hospital and Swansea (188). The top 3 for h-number were The Royal Free Hospital (21) Wythenshawe Hospital, Manchester (18) and Morriston Hospital (17). Academic output varies across plastic surgery units in the UK and Ireland. A number of departments have consistently maintained high academic outputs across the years and will be of interest to surgeons hoping to pursue a career in academia.     

Epidemiological evidence of increased waist circumference,but not body mass index,associated with impaired baroreflex sensitivity

Although an inverse relationship between body mass index (BMI) and baroreflex sensitivity (BRS) was found, the effect of waist circumference (WC) on BRS is still inconclusive. The contradictory results of previous studies may be related to the heterogeneity and relatively small sample size of the subjects examined. The aim of this population-based study was to investigate whether the influence of increased WC is more detrimental to BRS than BMI. A total of 760 community dwellers were recruited and they were classified into Q1 (n = 189), Q2 (n = 183), Q3 (n = 192) and Q4 (n = 196) groups, based on WC quartiles. Spontaneous BRS was determined by spectral α coefficient method. Valsalva ratio was the longest RR interval after release of Valsalva maneuver divided by the shortest RR interval during maneuver. Cardiac autonomic function was calculated by power spectrum of heart rate in low and high frequency (LF, 0.04–0.15 Hz; HF, 0.15–0.40 Hz), and LF/HF ratio in supine position for five minutes. There were significant differences in spontaneous BRS and Valsalva ratio among different WC groups. In multivariate analysis, obesity was inversely associated with spontaneous BRS and Valsalva ratio. However, these inverse relationships became insignificant after further adjustment for WC quartiles. In contrast, Q4 vs. Q1, Q3 vs. Q1 and Q2 vs. Q1 of WC were inversely related to spontaneous BRS. Q4 vs. Q1 and Q3 vs. Q1 of WC were negatively associated with the Valsalva ratio. In conclusion, increased and even high-normal WC had a stronger adverse effect on BRS than BMI, independent of cardio-metabolic risk factors.     

Fine particulate matter and incidence of metabolic syndrome in non-CVD patients: A nationwide population-based cohort study

Background

It has been reported that particulate matter (PM) is associated with cardiovascular diseases (CVD) while metabolic syndrome is also an important risk factor for CVD. However, few studies have investigated the epidemiological association between PM and metabolic syndrome.

Innovative Thinking on Endpoint Selection in Clinical Trials

ABSTRACT

In clinical trials, selection of appropriate study endpoints is critical for an accurate and reliable evaluation of safety and effectiveness of a test treatment under investigation. In practice, however, there are usually multiple endpoints available for measurement of disease status and/or therapeutic effect of the test treatment under study. For example, in cancer clinical trials, overall survival, response rate, and/or time to disease progression are usually considered as primary clinical endpoints for evaluation of safety and effectiveness of the test treatment under investigation. Once the study endpoints have been selected, sample size required for achieving a desired power is then determined. It, however, should be noted that different study endpoints may result in different sample sizes. In practice, it is usually not clear which study endpoint can best inform the disease status and measure the treatment effect. Moreover, different study endpoints may not translate one another although they may be highly correlated one another. In this article, we intend to develop an innovative endpoint namely therapeutic index based on a utility function to combine and utilize information collected from all study endpoints. Statistical properties and performances of the proposed therapeutic index are evaluated theoretically. A numerical example concerning a cancer clinical trial is given to illustrate the use of the proposed therapeutic index.     

医养结合型养老机构卫生服务质量指标体系构建研究

目的:构建基于SERVQUAL模型的医养结合型养老机构卫生服务质量评价指标体系。方法:围绕医养结合型养老机构卫生服务的概念、特性、内涵、内容等,采用文献研究法、半结构式访谈法、Delphi—AHP法等定性与定量相结合的研究方法,构建指标体系并确定指标权重。结果:构建了具有7个一级指标,27个二级指标和77个三级指标的养老机构卫生服务质量评价指标体系。指标体系三轮咨询专家权威系数Cr均高于0.84,专家综合权威性系数均高于0.83;总体专家协调系数Kendall W第一、二轮为0.309,第三轮为0.706,且均通过显著性检验;内容效度指数I-CVI介于0.90~1.00之间,S-CVI为0.94,kappa值均高于0.74;信度系数Cronbachα总体为0.972,各维度Cronbachα系数在0.792~0.921之间。评价指标体系具有较好的稳定性、可靠性和一致性。结论:本研究建立的评价指标体系有利于医养结合型养老机构全面建立贴近老年人卫生服务需求的内设医疗机构,改善机构内卫生服务质量。在对指标体系进行应用时,可转化为机构中老年人对各指标项目的感受(P)与期望(E),以两者的差值(P-E)代表机构的卫生服务质量。根据专家赋权结果,应重点加强医养结合养老机构对可靠性、有效性、经济性等指标项目的建设。