Validation of PATHFx 2.0: An open-source tool for estimating survival in patients undergoing pathologic fracture fixation

Treatment decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease rely on accurate survival estimation. We developed the original PATHFx models using expensive, proprietary software and now seek to provide a more cost-effective solution. Using open-source machine learning software to create PATHFx version 2.0, we asked whether PATHFx 2.0 could be created using open-source methods and externally validated in two unique patient populations. The training set of a well-characterized, database records of 189 patients and the bnlearn package within R Version 3.5.1 (R Foundation for Statistical Computing), was used to establish a series of Bayesian belief network models designed to predict survival at 1, 3, 6, 12, 18, and 24 months. Each was externally validated in both a Scandinavian (n = 815 patients) and a Japanese (n = 261 patients) data set. Brier scores and receiver operating characteristic curves to assessed discriminatory ability. Decision curve analysis (DCA) evaluated whether models should be used clinically. DCA showed that the model should be used clinically at all time points in the Scandinavian data set. For the 1-month time point, DCA of the Japanese data set suggested to expect better outcomes assuming all patients will survive greater than 1 month. Brier scores for each curve demonstrate that the models are accurate at each time point. Statement of Clinical Significance: we successfully transitioned to PATHFx 2.0 using open-source software and externally validated it in two unique patient populations, which can be used as a cost-effective option to guide surgical decisions in patients with metastatic bone disease.     

替考拉宁在中国成人患者中的群体药动学研究

目的建立中国成年患者的替考拉宁(teicoplanin,TEC)群体药动学(population pharmacokinetics,PPK)模型,考察TEC药动学参数的影响因素。方法前瞻性收集139例革兰阳性球菌感染患者静脉注射TEC后的222份常规监测血药浓度和相关信息,采用一级消除的一室模型进行数据拟合,并应用非线性混合效应模型(nonlinear mixed effect model,NONMEM)程序建立PPK模型。采用Bootstrap、正态预测分布误差法(normalized predictive distribution error,NPDE)进行最终模型评价。利用蒙特卡洛模拟法对给药方案进行优化。结果确定了肌酐清除率(creatinine clearance,CLcr)、白蛋白(albumin,ALB)为影响TEC清除率的主要因素。最终模型为:CL(L·h^-1)=1.24×(CLcr/77)0.564×31/ALB;V(L)=69.2。验证表明,模型稳定、有效,且有较好的预测效能。对于不同ALB和CLcr的多数患者起始负荷剂量400 mg/q12h,iv,3次,维持剂量400~800 mg·d^-1的给药方案可达有效治疗谷浓度。严重感染者需调整负荷剂量至800 mg/q12h,iv,3次,维持剂量400~800 mg·d^-1的给药方案来确保血药浓度达到15 mg·L^-1以上。结论本实验报道了CLcr、ALB对TEC清除率有显著影响,所建模型对TEC在中国成人患者中实现个体化给药具有重要应用价值。     

C.B‐17 SCID mice develop epicardial calcinosis with unaltered cardiac function

Inbred mouse strains are the most widely used mammalian model organism in biomedical research owing to ease of genetic manipulation and short lifespan; however, each inbred strain possesses a unique repertoire of deleterious homozygous alleles that can make a specific strain more susceptible to a particular disease. In the current study, we report dystrophic cardiac calcinosis (DCC) in C.B‐17 SCID male mice at 10 weeks of age with no significant change in cardiac function. Acquisition of DCC was characterized by myocardial injury, fibrosis, calcification, and necrosis of the tissue. At 10 weeks of age, 38% of the C.B‐17 SCID mice from two different commercial colonies exhibited significant calcinosis on the ventricular epicardium, predominantly on the right ventricle. The frequency of calcinosis was more than 50% for mice obtained from Taconic's Cambridge City colony and 25% for mice obtained from Taconic's German Town colony. Interestingly, the DCC phenotype did not affect cardiac function at 10 weeks of age. No differences in echocardiography or electrocardiography were observed between the calcinotic and non‐calcinotic mice from either colony. Our findings suggest that C.B‐17 SCID mice exhibit DCC as early as 10 weeks of age with no significant impact on cardiac function. This strain of mice should be cautiously considered for the study of cardiac physiology.     

Predictors of condom use behaviour among male street labourers in urban Vietnam using a modified Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model

HIV risk in vulnerable groups such as itinerant male street labourers is often examined via a focus on individual determinants. This study provides a test of a modified Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills (IMB) model to predict condom use behaviour among male street workers in urban Vietnam. In a cross-sectional survey using a social mapping technique, 450 male street labourers from 13 districts of Hanoi, Vietnam were recruited and interviewed. Collected data were first examined for completeness; structural equation modelling was then employed to test the model fit. Condoms were used inconsistently by many of these men, and usage varied in relation to a number of factors. A modified IMB model had a better fit than the original IMB model in predicting condom use behaviour. This modified model accounted for 49% of the variance, versus 10% by the original version. In the modified model, the influence of psychosocial factors was moderately high, whilst the influence of HIV prevention information, motivation and perceived behavioural skills was moderately low, explaining in part the limited level of condom use behaviour. This study provides insights into social factors that should be taken into account in public health planning to promote safer sexual behaviour among Asian male street labourers.     

A conceptual model and detailed framework for stress-related,strain-related,and overuse athletic injury

A multitude of athletic injuries occur when the various tissues that make up the human body experience stresses and strains that exceed their material strength. The precise amount of stress and strain that any given tissue can withstand is determined by the mechanical properties and resultant strength of that particular tissue. These mechanical properties are directly determined by an individual’s physiology and acute regulation of these properties. A number of theoretical frameworks for athletic injury occurrence have been proposed, however, a detailed conceptual framework for injury aetiology that considers the interplay between the physiological and mechanical factors and outlines the causal pathways to tissue damage and injury is needed. This will guide injury research towards a more thorough investigation of causal mechanisms and understanding of risk factors. Further, it is important to take into account the considerable differences in loading patterns which can result in varying injury outcomes such as acute stress-related, strain-related, or overuse injury. Within this article a simplified conceptual model of athletic injury is proposed along with a detailed, evidence-informed, conceptual framework for athletic injury aetiology that focuses on stress-related, strain-related, and overuse injury.     

A new mouse model for the neurodevelopmental ciliopathy Joubert syndrome

Recent recognition of the key role of primary cilia in orchestrating human development and of the dire consequences of their dysfunction on human health has placed this small organelle in the spotlight. While the causal link between mutations in ciliary genes and central nervous system malformations and dysfunction is well established, the mechanisms by which primary cilia dysfunction acts on development and function of the CNS remain partly unknown. The recent article by Bashford and Subramanian in The Journal of Pathology describes a new mouse model for the neurodevelopmental ciliopathy Joubert syndrome, supporting a role for ciliary-mediated Hedgehog signaling on proliferation, survival, and differentiation of cerebellar granule cell progenitors. © 2019 Pathological Society of Great Britain and Ireland. Published by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

SI和DBP对女性产后出血的风险预测效果

目的考察休克指数(shock index,SI)和舒张压(diastolic blood pressure,DBP)对女性产后出血的风险预测效果。方法选取2016年1月～2018年12月在我院行产检并分娩的320例产后出血孕妇作为研究组,另外选取同期进行正常分娩的健康孕妇240例作为对照组,比较两组患者的一般临床资料、血红蛋白(hemoglobin,Hb)、舒张压(diastolic blood pressure,DBP)、收缩压(systolic blood pressure,SBP)、心率(heart rate,HR)及休克指数(shock index,SI),并采用Ordinal逻辑回归分析各参数对产后出血的风险预警。结果两组患者在年龄、孕周、BMI及新生儿体重相比,差异无统计学意义(P0.05),而孕次相比,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05);与对照组产后24 h相比,研究组产后24 h患者的DBP、SBP及Hb均显著降低,而HR和SI显著升高(P0.05);与对照组产前相比,产后24 h患者的SBP、HR及SI显著降低(P0.05);与研究组产前相比,产后24 h患者的DBP、SBP、HR及Hb均显著降低,而SI显著升高,差异具有统计学意义(P0.05);Ordinal逻辑回归分析结果显示,休克指数和舒张压对产后出血具有预警作用(P0.05)。结论休克指数和舒张压可作为评估女性产后出血的风险预测指标,临床应密切监护。