ROC评价在影像诊断中的应用

目的:介绍一种在实际影像诊断中简单制作ROC曲线的方法,及其在诊断中的价值。方法:通过“利用ROC曲线评价CT和MR T1压脂序列和动态增强扫描在诊断胰腺小腺癌中的价值”介绍ROC曲线的制作过程,采用实际病例中的所需的病灶作为信号,而非病灶或其他所需鉴别的疾病病灶作为噪声代替传统模体中的人造小球。结果:计算得到了观察者观测信号的概率值Pdel,并做出了胰腺癌两种检查方法的ROC曲线。结论:ROC评价法在临床诊断中有很大的使用价值,利用病变作为信号或噪声,可以方便、准确的制作ROC曲线。     

食品卫生抽样检验方案探讨

本文分析了我国现行规定食品抽样检验百分比抽样、平方根加一方案及(1/0)方案的不合理性;拟将序贯抽样检验和链形抽样方案应用于判断大批量食品卫生合格质量的抽检。并对其合理性、可行性进行了论述。     

Understanding Diagnostic Testing for Periodontal Diseases

Probability computations are used to characterize new periodontal diagnostic tests and are an integral facet of risk assessment for periodontal diseases. However, misinterpretation of these data can result in confusion and erroneous conclusions regarding the relationship of test results to the presence or absence of disease in a subject, or to episodes of periodontal destruction at specific sites. This paper was written to provide clinicians with a primer to help in understanding calculations used to evaluate diagnostic tests and risk assessment. J Periodontol 1995;66:659–666.     

危险因素控制场景下2030年中国糖尿病疾病负担预测研究

目的估算2030年我国糖尿病的死亡情况和过早死亡概率, 评估控制相关危险因素对糖尿病未来死亡率、年龄标化死亡率和过早死亡概率的影响。方法根据WHO及我国政府规划文件筛选糖尿病相关危险因素控制目标, 设置多种危险因素控制场景。基于比较风险评估理论, 利用2015年全球疾病负担研究结果, 采用比例变化模型预测不同危险因素控制场景下2030年糖尿病的死亡水平和过早死亡概率。结果如危险因素暴露水平按1990-2015年变化趋势发展, 2030年我国糖尿病的死亡率、年龄标化死亡率和过早死亡概率将分别上升至32.57/10万、17.32/10万和0.84%。在此期间, 男性糖尿病的死亡率、年龄标化死亡率和过早死亡概率始终高于女性。若这些危险因素暴露水平均达到控制目标, 相比于自然趋势场景, 2030年我国糖尿病死亡数将减少62.10%, 过早死亡概率将降至0.29%。如果2030年仅控制单个危险因素暴露水平, 高FPG控制对于糖尿病死亡的影响最大, 将比自然趋势场景减少56.00%的死亡数。其次是高BMI(4.92%)、吸烟(0.65%)和身体活动不足(0.53%)。结论危险因素控制对降低糖尿病的...     

Biostatistical evaluation of blood group,HLA and DNA findings in Jeffreys' immigrant test-case using special kinship and DNA algorithms

Summary In the immigration case cited by Jeffreys et al. (1985), the biostatistical evaluation of blood group findings in 16 systems and of HLA-A,B findings for the mother and child, using a special kinship algorithm developed by Ihm and Hummel (1975), produced a probability of maternity of the Ghanaian-born putative mother of W = 6%; the probability of maternity for her sister was W = 94%. Using the DNA multilocus probes 33.15 and 33.6 and the bandsharing technique, the authors analysed band patterns from the putative mother and child as well as another 3 children of the same woman. It was concluded that the putative mother was the mother of all 4 children. An evaluation of the band patterns using the multi-di-allelism model and the kinship algorithm in accordance with the Essen-Möller principle produced: W = 99.99999999999999991%, or, if the ----- constellations were not considered, W = 99.99998%.     

心理卫生调查中对敏感问题的调查技术

本文介绍了随机应答技术,以解决在心理卫生及现场调查研究中对敏感问题的调查方法     

Adaptive nonlinear least bit error-rate detection for symmetrical RBF beamforming

A powerful symmetrical radial basis function (RBF) aided detector is proposed for nonlinear detection in so-called rank-deficient multiple-antenna assisted beamforming systems. By exploiting the inherent symmetry of the optimal Bayesian detection solution, the proposed RBF detector becomes capable of approaching the optimal Bayesian detection performance using channel-impaired training data. A novel nonlinear least bit error algorithm is derived for adaptive training of the symmetrical RBF detector based on a stochastic approximation to the Parzen window estimation of the detector output’s probability density function. The proposed adaptive solution is capable of providing a signal-to-noise ratio gain in excess of 8 dB against the theoretical linear minimum bit error rate benchmark, when supporting four users with the aid of two receive antennas or seven users employing four receive antenna elements.     

Integration of Pharmacometric and Statistical Analyses Using Clinical Trial Simulations to Enhance Quantitative Decision Making in Clinical Drug Development

This article outlines a general framework in which clinical trial simulations (CTS) are employed integrating both pharmacometric and statistical analyses to support trial design and quantitative decision making in drug development. Specifically, predictive pharmacometric models are used as data-generation models to simulate data, while data-analytic models as specified in the statistical analysis plan are used to analyze the simulated data and to apply a quantitative data-analytic decision rule. Various probability metrics including probability of achieving the target value, probability of success, and probability of a correct decision are proposed to support study design recommendations and quantitative decision-making. A case study is presented to illustrate the CTS methods and procedures described in this article.     

如何正确运用Z检验——Z检验的基本概念与前提条件

本文的目的是简要介绍与Z检验有关的基本概念和理论基础。基本概念涉及五个方面的内容：①何为Z检验；②何为正态分布；③Z检验的前提条件；④Z检验的适用场合；⑤Z分位数的适用场合。理论基础涉及两个方面的内容：正态分布与其他概率分布之间的关系以及正态分布可用于某些其他概率分布的近似计算。     

Model-Based Selection for Proton Therapy in Breast Cancer: Development of the National Indication Protocol for Proton Therapy and First Clinical Experiences

AimsProton therapy is a radiation technique that yields less dose in normal tissues than photon therapy. In the Netherlands, proton therapy is reimbursed if the reduced dose to normal tissues is predicted to translate into a prespecified reduction in toxicity, based on nationally approved validated models. The aim of this paper is to present the development of a national indication protocol for proton therapy (NIPP) for model-based selection of breast cancer patients and to report on first clinical experiences.Materials and methodsA national proton therapy working group for breast cancer (PWG-BC) screened the literature for prognostic models able to estimate the individual risk of specific radiation-induced side-effects. After critical appraisal and selection of suitable models, a NIPP for breast cancer was written and subjected to comments by all stakeholders. The approved NIPP was subsequently introduced to select breast cancer patients who would benefit most from proton therapy.ResultsThe model of Darby et al. (N Engl J Med 2013; 368:987–82) was the only model fulfilling the criteria prespecified by the PWG-BC. The model estimates the relative risk of an acute coronary event (ACE) based on the mean heart dose. The absolute lifetime risk of ACE <80 years was calculated by applying this model to the Dutch absolute incidence of ACE for female and male patients, between 40 and 70 years at breast cancer radiotherapy, with/without cardiovascular risk factors. The NIPP was approved for reimbursement in January 2019. Based on a threshold value of a 2% absolute lower risk on ACE for proton therapy compared with photons, 268 breast cancer patients have been treated in the Netherlands with proton therapy between February 2019 and January 2021.ConclusionThe NIPP includes a model that allows the estimation of the absolute risk on ACE <80 years based on mean heart dose. In the first 2 years, 268 breast cancer patients have been treated with proton therapy in The Netherlands.