Risk communication in a patient decision aid for radiotherapy in breast cancer: How to deal with uncertainty?

Background and aimPatient decision aids for oncological treatment options, provide information on the effect on recurrence rates and/or survival benefit, and on side-effects and/or burden of different treatment options. However, often uncertainty exists around the probability estimates for recurrence/survival and side-effects which is too relevant to be ignored. Evidence is lacking on the best way to communicate these uncertainties. The aim of this study is to develop a method to incorporate uncertainties in a patient decision aid for breast cancer patients to support their decision on radiotherapy.MethodsFirstly, qualitative interviews were held with patients and health care professionals. Secondly, in the development phase, thinking aloud sessions were organized with four patients and 12 health care professionals, individual and group-wise.ResultsConsensus was reached on a pictograph illustrating the whole range of uncertainty for local recurrence risks, in combination with textual explanation that a more exact personalized risk would be given by their own physician. The pictograph consisted of 100 female icons in a 10 x 10 array. Icons with a stepwise gradient color indicated the uncertainty margin. The prevalence and severity of possible side-effects were explained using verbal labels.ConclusionsWe developed a novel way of visualizing uncertainties in recurrence rates in a patient decision aid. The effect of this way of communicating risk uncertainty is currently being tested in the BRASA study (NCT03375801).     

Health technology assessment with risk aversion in health

Standard cost-effectiveness models compare incremental cost increases to incremental average gains in health, commonly expressed in Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs). Our research generalizes earlier models in several ways. We introduce risk aversion in Quality of Life (QoL), which leads to “willingness-to-pay” thresholds that rise with illness severity, potentially by an order of magnitude. Unlike traditional CEA analyses, which discriminate against persons with disabilities, our analysis implies that the marginal value of improving QoL rises for disabled individuals. Our model can also value the uncertain benefits of medical interventions by employing well-established analytic methods from finance. Finally, we show that traditional QALYs no longer serve as a single index of health, when consumers are risk-averse. To address this problem, we derive a generalized single-index of health outcomes—the Generalized Risk-Adjusted QALY (GRA-QALY). Earlier models of CEA that abstract from risk-aversion nest as special cases of our more general model.     

影响颅脑外伤术后颅内感染的危险因素分析

目的探讨影响颅脑外伤开颅术后颅内感染的危险因素。方法采用回顾性研究比较分析了912例颅脑损伤术后出现颅内感染与未出现颅内感染组间的差异因素。结果非感染 770例,颅内感染142例(15．6％)。感染类型有无菌性脑膜炎、细菌性脑膜炎、脑室炎及脑室积脓、脑脓肿、硬膜下腔积脓、术区皮下或(和)骨瓣下化脓或合并骨髓炎、切口感染。细菌检出率占感染的27．5％。颅脑外伤术后感染与高温季节、高龄、重度以上损伤、短期内两次以上手术、连续两侧开颅术、长时间 (>5 h)手术、显微外科手术、颅底与后颅凹手术、脑室外引流、皮下或硬膜外积液以及急诊手术等因素相关(P<0．05)。结论对具有上述危险冈素的易感患者应给予更密切的关注和预防性的处理。     

高同型半胱氨酸血症与脑卒中相关性研究

目的探讨血浆同型半胱氨酸(H cy)水平对脑卒中临床亚型、复发及痴呆的影响,并研究高同型半胱氨酸血症(HH)与脑卒中传统危险因素之间的相关性。方法应用酶联免疫吸附试验(EL ISA)检测90例急性脑卒中患者血浆H cy水平。将研究对象分为不同临床亚型,脑白质损伤组与非脑白质损伤组,青年组与老年组,痴呆组与非痴呆组。对不同类型脑卒中患者血浆H cy水平进行比较,对HH脑卒中传统危险因素进行相关与回归分析。结果首次发作(FCS)组血浆H cy水平明显低于复发(RCS)组(P<0.01),HH发生率比较RCS组明显高于FCS组(P<0.05)。痴呆组血浆H cy水平与对照组有差别(P<0.01)。饮酒者血浆H cy含量明显高于不摄入酒精者(P<0.05)。结论HH是脑卒中的独立危险因素,脑卒中患者普遍存在HH,在复发性脑卒中患者中尤其明显。血浆H cy水平随年龄增加而增加,同时HH与血管性痴呆和/或变性性痴呆有关。     

Framing the child at risk

Risk Assessment Reports are one form of accounting practice which delineate the space of risk considered in a child abuse neglect investigation. The paper analyses two Risk Assessment Reports, contrasting what is reported, what is directly observed and what is hypothesized and implied by child protection practitioners during the assessment of risk. From an analysis of these two reports (each 4 – 5 pages long), the paper identifies the rhetorical strategies and their realizations used by two practitioners in framing the child at risk. The paper problematizes the tension between the institutional need to constrain the exercise of professional judgement through Risk Assessment Models, and the extent to which practitioners actually localize the framing of risk to specific areas of investigation.     

From Innumeracy to Insight: The Uncertainty of Help versus Harm in Treatment of Asymptomatic Aortic Aneurysms

There is insufficient evidence that the surgical treatment of asymptomatic infrarenal aneurysms > 5.5 cm. is beneficial to patients. This is the result of serious complications of aneurysm surgery and the dearth of information from randomized trials. Based on evidence from the literature we defined scenarios and translated data into natural frequency trees to improve understanding of the uncertainty of help versus harm due to treatment of aneurysms. Our analysis shows that the majority of patients can expect little on longevity from surgery while they are at risk of dying from surgery or suffering from serious morbidity. We conclude that, as long as uncertainty persist, patients should be treated in hospitals that can show very low surgical mortality and major morbidity rates. To further resolve the problem of uncertainty randomized trials for larger aneurysms should be performed. Important issues to discuss are the lower and upper limits of the diameter of the aneurysms and the age and risk profiles of the patients to be included in such trials.     

延边地区农村朝、汉族肥胖与慢性病危险因素关系分析

目的：分析延边农村地区朝、汉族肥胖与慢性病危险因素关系。方法：随机抽取延边地区农村50～60岁朝、汉族常驻人群447名，采用面对面询问法进行问卷调查，观察不同民族体质指数（BMI）、腰围（WC）水平与慢性病危险因素-血清总胆固醇（TC）、高密度脂蛋白胆固醇（HDI—C）、甘油三醋（TG）、收缩压（SBP）、舒张压（DBP）及血糖（FBG）的关系。结果：不同民族居民WC、SBP、DBP、FBG及HDL—C分布特征存在差异。不同民族BMI、WC与慢性病危险因素的相关性存在差异。结论：制定延边地区慢性病防治策略和措施时应考虑民族与肥胖种类的因素。     

中青年脑梗死68例临床分析

脑梗死多见于老年人，但近年来中青年（16-45岁）患者逐渐增多且有年轻化趋势，深人探讨中青年脑梗死的致病因素及临床表现对其防治有重要意义。本文回顾性分析了我院自1998年1月到2004年12月问收治的中青年脑梗死患者68例，现报告如下。     

Non-A,Non-B hepatitis; Factors involved in progression to chronicity

A cross-sectional, longitudinal study was undertaken on a group of acute non-A, non-B hepatitis patients, as well as on a control group of hepatitis B patients, in order to assess both the prevalence of the most important factors favoring infection, and the relevance of these factors in promoting evolution towards chronic liver disease. Exposures to unknown risk factors were present in 47.4% of acute non-A, non-B infections, followed by blood transfusions (17.9%), sporadic exposures (17.9%) and drug addiction (16.6%). Unknown as well as sporadic exposures showed a greater prevalence in control population if compared to non-A, non-B cases, while drug addiction was equally represented in the two groups, and blood transfusion nearly absent from control group. The risk of evolution to chronic liver disease was about 13 times greater in non-A, non-B group than in controls, with the greatest risk for drug addicts and the lowest for patients with unknown exposures. Among patients with known exposures, the lowest risk of chronic hepatitis was observed in post-transfusion and in sporadic cases, while the greatest was observed in drug addicts.Corresponding author.     

Sex effects in defensive behavior: Baseline differences and drug interactions

Female rats consistently show a pattern of differences in defensive behaviors compared to males which parallel the effects of exposure to a nonpainful threat stimulus (cat or cat odor) in the same tests and measures. These indications of greater defensiveness for females are particularly common in situations involving potential, as opposed to actual and present, threat, a factor which probably also reflects ceiling or floor effects in situations involving very intense defensiveness. In addition, pharmacological studies indicate sex differences in the effects of selective serotonin (5-HT) receptor agonists and antagonists on defensive responding. These findings indicate that sex effects must be considered in studies of the pharmacological control of defensive behaviors, and suggest that responsivity to sex effects may be an additional criterion for the suitability of animal models of anxiety.