Prognostic nomogram for renal insufficiency after radical or partial nephrectomy

PURPOSE: We analyzed prognostic factors to predict renal insufficiency after partial or radical nephrectomy. We developed and performed internal validations of a postoperative nomogram for this purpose. We used a prospectively updated renal tumor database of more than 1,500 patients. MATERIALS AND METHODS: From July 1989 to October 2003, 161 partial nephrectomies and 857 radical nephrectomies performed at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center for renal cortical tumors were analyzed. Computerized tomography images were reviewed by a single radiologist. Kidney volume was calculated using the ellipsoid formula, V = L1 x L2 x L3 x pi/6, where V represents volume and L represents length. Renal insufficiency was defined by 2 serum creatinine values greater than 2.0 mg/dl at least 1 month postoperatively. Tumor histology was not an exclusion criterion and yet we excluded cases of bilateral synchronous disease. Prognostic variables were preoperative serum creatinine, American Society of Anesthesiologists score, percent change in kidney volume after surgery, and patient age and sex. RESULTS: Renal insufficiency was noted in 105 of the 857 patients with radical nephrectomy (12.3%) and in 6 of the 161 with partial nephrectomy (3.7%) studied. Patients had a median followup of 21.2 months (maximum 157.9). The 7-year probability of freedom from renal insufficiency in the cohort was 79.1% (95% CI 74.6 to 83.6). The nomogram was designed based on a Cox proportional hazards regression model. Following internal statistical validation nomogram predictions appeared accurate and discriminating with a concordance index of 0.835. CONCLUSIONS: A nomogram was developed that can predict the 7-year probability of renal insufficiency in patients undergoing radical or partial nephrectomy.     

Impact of increased number of biopsies on the nature of prostate cancer identified

PURPOSE: Increasing the number of cores obtained at the time of transrectal ultrasound guided prostate biopsy has increased the number of cancers identified. However, there is increasing recognition that many men with prostate cancer may not benefit from early, aggressive intervention and that over detection of prostate cancer has resulted in over treatment. We determined the impact of the greater number of prostate biopsies on the nature of cancer identified. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In the Cancer of the Prostate Strategic Urologic Research Endeavor database, a longitudinal disease registry of men with prostate cancer, we identified those men diagnosed between 1999 and 2002 with complete data on serum prostate specific antigen, Gleason score, clinical T stage, number of biopsies obtained and number involved with cancer. RESULTS: We identified 4,072 men with 6 or more prostate biopsies obtained at initial diagnosis. Of the men 30%, 47% and 24% underwent 6, 7 to 11, and more than 12 biopsies, respectively. The number of biopsies correlated significantly with numerous sociodemographic and clinical variables including prostate specific antigen, comorbidities and income. There did not appear to be differences in disease characteristics as assessed by Kattan and Cancer of the Prostate Risk Assessment scores among men with a biopsy number between 6 and 17. In the subset of 1,548 men undergoing radical prostatectomy, no differences in biochemical-free survival were observed among the various biopsy groups at a median followup of 2.2 years. CONCLUSIONS: The increasing number of prostate biopsies obtained at diagnosis increases cancer detection but the impact on disease characteristics remains unclear. Our data suggest that the risk stratification of prostate cancers is independent of biopsy number (6 or greater) in a contemporary cohort of men.     

Nomogram predictive of pathological inguinal lymph node involvement in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis

PURPOSE: In penile cancer the therapeutic benefits of early inguinal lymphadenectomy must be counterbalanced by the high rates of morbidity, postoperative complications and mortality. A relevant aim is optimizing the selection of the patients who could really have the highest survival advantage from inguinal lymphadenectomy, limiting the cases in which this surgery might be considered over treatment with a risk of severe complications. We generated a nomogram estimating the risk of pathological inguinal lymph node involvement according to clinical lymph node stage and pathological findings of the primary tumor. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We retrospectively collected the clinical and pathological data of 175 patients who had undergone surgical therapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the penis from 1980 to 2002 at 11 urological centers in northeastern Italy. A logistic regression model was used to construct the nomogram. RESULTS: The presence of palpable groin lymph nodes and the histological findings of vascular and/or lymphatic embolization were important predictors of metastatic inguinal lymph node involvement. The nomogram predicting the risk of metastatic lymph node involvement showed a good concordance index (0.876) and good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: The clinical stage of groin lymph nodes and pathological findings of penectomy specimens allowed us to generate a nomogram to predict the probability of metastatic lymph node involvement in patients with squamous cell carcinoma of the penis. The statistical model showed an excellent ability to identify the patients with lymph node metastases and good calibration.     

Nomograms including nuclear matrix protein 22 for prediction of disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1 or CIS transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

PURPOSE: We developed and validated nomograms that accurately predict disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1, or CIS transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder using a large international cohort. METHODS: Univariate and multivariate logistic regression models targeted histologically confirmed disease recurrence, and focused on 2,542 patients with bladder TCC from 10 participating centers. Variables consisted of pre-cystoscopy voided urine Nuclear Matrix Protein 22 (NMP22) assay, urine cytology, age and gender. Resulting nomograms were internally validated with bootstrapping. Nomogram performance was explored graphically with Loess smoothing plots. RESULTS: Overall 957 patients had recurrent TCC. Tumor grade and stage was available for 898 patients, including 24% grade I, 43% grade II, and 33% grade III; 45% stage Ta, 32% T1 and/or CIS, and 23% T2 or greater. Bootstrap corrected predictive accuracy for any TCC recurrence was 0.842; grade III Ta/T1 or CIS was 0.869; and T2 or higher stage TCC of any grade was 0.858. Virtually perfect performance characteristics were observed for the nomograms predicting any TCC recurrence or grade III Ta/T1 or CIS. The nomogram predicting T2 or higher stage TCC overestimated the observed probability for predicted values greater than 45%. CONCLUSIONS: We developed and internally validated nomograms that incorporate urinary NMP22, cytology, age and gender to predict with high accuracy the probability of disease recurrence and progression in patients with Ta, T1, and/or CIS bladder TCC. These nomograms could provide a means for individualizing followup in patients with Ta, T1, CIS bladder TCC.     

超声评分系统联合临床特征列线图预测凶险性前置胎盘患者产后出血

目的 观察基于超声评分系统联合临床特征构建的列线图预测凶险性前置胎盘(PPP)患者产后出血(PPH)的价值。方法 回顾性分析342例接受剖宫产PPP孕妇,以243例产前接受超声评分系统评估者为观察组、99例接受常规超声者为对照组。比较组间孕妇基线资料及母儿结局差异;记录观察组产后24 h内出血量、判断是否发生PPH(≥1 000 ml),并按8 ∶ 2比例分为训练集(n=194,含107例PPH和87例非PPH)及测试集(n=49,含29例PPH和20例非PPH)。采用单因素及多因素logistic回归分析评估训练集临床及超声系统评分,筛选PPP患者发生PPH的独立危险因素并构建列线图,评估其预测效能、拟合度及临床有效性。结果 观察组产后24 h内出血量、输注红细胞悬液量、手术时间、住院时间及分娩孕周与对照组差异均有统计学意义(P均＜0.05)。产前体质量指数≥28 kg/m²、引产/流产次数≥3及超声系统评分≥10均为PPP患者发生PPH的独立危险因素(P均＜0.05);以之构建的列线图拟合度佳,预测测试集PPP患者发生PPH的曲线下面积为0.81,且阈值为0.22~0.98时临床净获益大于0。结论 超声评分系统联合临床特征列线图能有效预测PPP患者发生PPH。     

建立临床-影像学联合列线图模型早期识别TACE抵抗肝细胞癌

目的 建立预测TACE抵抗肝细胞癌(HCC)的临床-影像学联合列线图模型,评价其早期识别TACE抵抗HCC的价值。方法 回顾性分析218例接受TACE的HCC患者临床资料,以其中137例作为训练集,81例作为验证集。采用Cox风险回归模型,基于训练集临床及影像学资料筛选预测TACE抵抗HCC的独立因素;建立列线图模型,评价其判断训练集与验证集中TACE抵抗低、高危HCC患者中位总生存期(OS)的差异;并以校准曲线及决策曲线验证列线图模型的校准度及临床价值。结果 回归分析显示巴塞罗那临床肝癌(BCLC)分期、肿瘤最大径、边界及病灶数目是影响HCC患者中位OS的独立因素。列线图模型判断的训练集及验证集TACE抵抗低、高危HCC患者中位OS差异均有统计学意义(P均＜0.05)。校准曲线及决策曲线显示临床-影像学联合列线图模型校准度良好,可使患者净获益。结论 临床-影像学联合列线图预测模型可用于早期判别TACE抵抗HCC。     

内镜下胃息肉切除术后复发的列线图模型的建立与验证

目的 构建内镜下胃息肉切除术后复发风险的列线图预警模型，并对模型的预测效能进行验证。方法 分析271例内镜下胃息肉切除术患者的临床资料，筛选出胃息肉切除术后复发的独立危险因素，并构建风险列线图预警模型。结果 胃镜检查和病理学检测发现：胃息肉复发者48例，复发率为17.71%；两组患者年龄、进食速度、幽门螺杆菌感染、精神创伤史、息肉数量、息肉直径和病理类型等临床资料比较，差异有统计学意义（P < 0.05）；Logistic回归分析结果表明：年龄 ≥ 50岁、幽门螺杆菌感染、精神创伤史、多发息肉、息肉直径 ≥ 2 cm和腺瘤性息肉是内镜下胃息肉切除术后复发的独立危险因素。基于该6项独立危险因素，建立内镜下胃息肉切除术后复发风险的列线图预警模型，结果显示：预测值与实测值基本一致，C指数为0.796（95%CI：0.758～0.834），受试者操作特征曲线（ROC曲线）下面积（AUC）为0.819（95%CI：0.787～0.842）。结论 年龄 ≥ 50岁、幽门螺杆菌感染、精神创伤史、多发息肉、息肉直径 ≥ 2 cm和腺瘤性息肉是内镜下胃息肉切除术后复发的独立危险因素，基于上述危险因素建立的列线图模型，可准确评估和量化胃息肉复发的风险。     

Prognostic difficulties of men with breast cancer

Most adequately powered studies confirm a worse prognosis for males versus matched females with breast cancer. There is in-stage migration for stage I cancers with a different ratio of tumor/normal breast tissue in males. Younger men have a better prognosis, largely the result of increased morbidity in the elderly, exacerbated by smoking, low socioeconomic differences, and ethnic disparity. BRCA2 carriers with MBC have a worse outcome than noncarriers as do men with amplification of EMSY. Men with tumors having a high cytosol level of plasminogen activator inhibitor 1 (PAI-1) may have more invasive cancers leading to earlier spread and hence a worse outcome. PREDICT+ is a useful prognostic model for MBC and multigene testing enables more specific systemic therapies to be used.