不同复杂抽样调查的设计效率比较分析

为比较常用的几种复杂抽样调查的设计效率,以“2002年中国居民营养与健康状况调查”的数据为依据构造抽样总体,利用统计模拟的方法,估计出不同复杂抽样调查的设计效率值。结果显示,不同复杂抽样的设计效率值差别较大,样本量越大、抽样阶段数越多、分层数越少,复杂抽样的设计效率值越大。实际中采用复杂抽样时,可尽量减少抽样阶段数,细化分层类别,以降低设计效率值,提高设计效率。     

中国疾控中心网站群评测

通过多维度的科学评测方法评估分析中国疾控中心直属单位网站群建设、管理情况,介绍评测范围、方法、指标设计思路、具体指标体系,包括信息公开、公共服务、公众参与、网站设计与管理、附加项共5个1级指标,阐述评测结果并对其进行讨论,以期达到以评促建的目的。     

ARMA模型在非意外死亡率动态预测中的应用

目的：探讨ARMA模型在某县区死亡率动态分析中的应用,分析和预测其非意外死亡率的动态发展趋势。方法：对该地2008年1月-2012年9月的逐月死亡率进行ARMA模型拟合,采用2012年10-12月的实际月死亡率验证模型的预测效果。结果：MA（1）模型较好地拟合了该地区既往时间段上的死亡率序列,模型残差为白噪声（P〉0．05）,模型参数MAl,1—0．470,有统计学意义（t=-4．010,P=O．000）,AIC=431．719,SBC=435．907,模型数学函数式为：X1=35．07217＋（1＋0．4757B）εt预测得到的2012年10—12月死亡率为32．65／10万、35．07／10万、35．07／lO万,2013年1月死亡率为35．07／10万,预测误差为12．25％。结论：ARMA模型可以较好地拟合死亡率的时间变化趋势,并用于预测未来的死亡率,是一种短期预测精度较高的预测模型。     

Cancer Statistics, 2010

Each year, the American Cancer Society estimates the number of new cancer cases and deaths expected in the United States in the current year and compiles the most recent data regarding cancer incidence, mortality, and survival based on incidence data from the National Cancer Institute, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the North American Association of Central Cancer Registries and mortality data from the National Center for Health Statistics. Incidence and death rates are age‐standardized to the 2000 US standard million population. A total of 1,529,560 new cancer cases and 569,490 deaths from cancer are projected to occur in the United States in 2010. Overall cancer incidence rates decreased in the most recent time period in both men (1.3% per year from 2000 to 2006) and women (0.5% per year from 1998 to 2006), largely due to decreases in the 3 major cancer sites in men (lung, prostate, and colon and rectum [colorectum]) and 2 major cancer sites in women (breast and colorectum). This decrease occurred in all racial/ethnic groups in both men and women with the exception of American Indian/Alaska Native women, in whom rates were stable. Among men, death rates for all races combined decreased by 21.0% between 1990 and 2006, with decreases in lung, prostate, and colorectal cancer rates accounting for nearly 80% of the total decrease. Among women, overall cancer death rates between 1991 and 2006 decreased by 12.3%, with decreases in breast and colorectal cancer rates accounting for 60% of the total decrease. The reduction in the overall cancer death rates translates to the avoidance of approximately 767,000 deaths from cancer over the 16‐year period. This report also examines cancer incidence, mortality, and survival by site, sex, race/ethnicity, geographic area, and calendar year. Although progress has been made in reducing incidence and mortality rates and improving survival, cancer still accounts for more deaths than heart disease in persons younger than 85 years. Further progress can be accelerated by applying existing cancer control knowledge across all segments of the population and by supporting new discoveries in cancer prevention, early detection, and treatment. CA Cancer J Clin 2010. © 2010 American Cancer Society, Inc.     

One-year health assessment of adult survivors of Bacillus anthracis infection

Context  Little is known about potential long-term health effects of bioterrorism-related Bacillus anthracis infection. Objective  To describe the relationship between anthrax infection and persistent somatic symptoms among adults surviving bioterrorism-related anthrax disease approximately 1 year after illness onset in 2001. Design, Setting, and Participants  Cross-sectional study of 15 of 16 adult survivors from September through December 2002 using a clinical interview, a medical review-of-system questionnaire, 2 standardized self-administered questionnaires, and a review of available medical records. Main Outcome Measures  Health complaints summarized by the body system affected and by symptom categories; psychological distress measured by the Revised 90-Item Symptom Checklist; and health-related quality-of-life indices by the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short-Form Health Survey (version 2). Results  The anthrax survivors reported symptoms affecting multiple body systems, significantly greater overall psychological distress (P<.001), and significantly reduced health-related quality-of-life indices compared with US referent populations. Eight survivors (53%) had not returned to work since their infection. Comparing disease manifestations, inhalational survivors reported significantly lower overall physical health than cutaneous survivors (mean scores, 30 vs 41; P = .02). Available medical records could not explain the persisting health complaints. Conclusion  The anthrax survivors continued to report significant health problems and poor life adjustment 1 year after onset of bioterrorism–related anthrax disease.      

营养强化辅食补充对甘肃贫困农村婴幼儿智力发育的影响

目的初步探讨辅食补充对贫困农村婴幼儿智力发育的影响。方法从甘肃省5个贫困县选取4~12个月的婴幼儿分成两组,所有儿童均在保持其家庭习惯的辅助食品添加的前提下,每天再补充1包不同配方的营养补充物,其中配方1组补充了蛋白质和微量营养素,配方2组补充能量达到配方1组的同等的能量。两组均补充维生素A。补充期间,儿童每3个月进行一次体格测量,每6个月进行一次血红蛋白测量,两组儿童观察到满24个月为止。儿童满24个月龄时进行智力发育的测定。结果24个月时配方1组、配方2组儿童的总发育商分别为97.2、95.5,有显著性差别(P<0.05),其中大运动区也有显著性差别(P<0.05)。两配方组儿童在辅食的补充时间、营养状况、性别构成、母亲文化程度等没有显著差别,但是24个月时儿童血红蛋白值两配方组有显著性差别(P=0.011)。结论补充营养素强化的辅助食品有利于贫困农村4~12个月婴儿的智力发育。