2010—2021年国内外老年多重慢病研究热点分析

背景 随着人口老龄化进程的加快,同时患有多种慢病已成为老年人的常态,老年多重慢病相关研究也不断丰富,但鲜有对其研究进展及热点进行分析。目的 分析国内外老年多重慢病的研究热点,揭示近十年来（2010—2021年）老年多重慢病领域研究前沿的热点主题,为相关研究者追踪前沿信息提供参考。方法 基于文本挖掘技术和文献计量学等方法,检索Web of Science核心合集、Scopus、中国知网、万方数据知识服务平台、维普网、PubMed、中华医学会期刊全文数据库、APA-PsycINFO美国心理学会数据库中老年多重慢病领域的相关文献,检索时间为2010—2021年。使用CiteSpace 6.1.3、PASW 18、BICOMB 2.04等软件对文献的发文量趋势、来源、作者、机构、关键词等方面进行分析及可视化,并绘制战略坐标图对领域研究热点进行分析。结果 最终纳入老年多重慢病相关文献9 392篇,其中外文文献5 776篇,中文文献3 616篇。2010—2021年老年多重慢病领域中外文献发文量均呈指数型增长,中文文献年增长率为13.27%,外文文献年增长率为15.84%,该领域正处于发展阶段。中...     

Prognostic Interplay of Functional Status and Multimorbidity Among Older Patients Discharged From Hospital

ObjectivesThe purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic weight of multimorbidity and functional impairment over long-term mortality among older patients discharged from acute care hospitals.DesignA prospective multicenter observational study.Setting and ParticipantsOur series consisted of 1967 adults aged ≥65 years consecutively admitted to acute care wards in Italy, in the context of the Report-AGE project.MethodsAfter signing a written informed consent, all patients underwent comprehensive geriatric assessment by Inter-RAI Minimum Data Set acute care. The primary endpoint of the present study was long-term mortality. Patients were grouped into 3 functional clusters and 3 disease clusters using the K-medians cluster analysis. The association of functional clusters, disease clusters, and Charlson score categories with long-term mortality was investigated through Cox regression analysis and the intercluster classification agreement was further estimated. Finally, the additive effect of either disease clusters or Charlson score on predictive ability of functional clusters was assessed by using changes in Harrell’s C-index and categorical Net Reclassification Index (NRI).ResultsFunctional clusters, disease clusters, and Charlson score were significant predictors of long-term mortality, but the interclassification agreement was poor. Functional clusters predicted mortality with greater accuracy [C-index 0.66, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65–0.68] compared with disease clusters (C-index 0.54, 95% CI 0.53–0.56), and Charlson score (C-index 0.58, 95% CI 0.56–0.59). Adding multimorbidity (NRI 0.23, 95% CI 0.14–0.31) or Charlson score (NRI 0.13, 95% CI 0.03–0.20) to functional cluster model slightly improved the accuracy of prediction.Conclusions and ImplicationsFunctional impairment may better predict prognosis compared with multimorbidity, which may be relevant to optimally address individuals’ needs and to design tailored preventive interventions.     

中国中老年人共病发展轨迹及其对新发失能的影响

目的 探索我国中老年人共病发展轨迹及其对新发失能的影响,以识别具有相似共病发展历程的同质群体,为我国中老年人群的失能风险干预提供依据。方法 基于中国健康与养老追踪调查2011-2018年4期数据,采用组基轨迹模型拟合共病发展轨迹,进而采用含时间依存协变量Cox回归模型分析其对新发失能的影响。结果 共纳入8 580名中老年人,依据中老年共病发展轨迹趋势,可分为无共病型（2 136人,24.90%）、新发-发展型（3 758人,43.80%）、适度-发展型（2 270人,26.45%）和严重-发展型（416人,4.85%）4种类型。适度-发展型和严重-发展型人群中女性、自评健康差、超重/肥胖、单身、居住在农村、家庭年人均支出水平高、发生新发失能的占比较高。调整人口学、行为学协变量后,与新发-发展型相比,严重-发展型（HR=3.132,95%CI：1.884~5.207）的失能风险最高,适度-发展型（HR=1.400,95%CI：1.026~1.909）次之,无共病型（HR=0.631,95%CI：0.424~0.938）最低。结论 我国中老年人的共病发展轨迹存在异质性,共病发展轨迹的失能风险随共病水平的升高而增加,提示共病发展轨迹升高是发生失能的危险因素。     

Predicting healthcare expenditure by multimorbidity groups

Objectives

This article has two main purposes. Firstly, to model the integrated healthcare expenditure for the entire population of a health district in Spain, according to multimorbidity, using Clinical Risk Groups (CRG). Secondly, to show how the predictive model is applied to the allocation of health budgets.

Multimorbidity and mortality in older adults: A systematic review and meta-analysis

ObjectiveTo review literature and provide a pooled effect for the association between multimorbidity and mortality in older adults.MethodsA systematic review was performed of articles held on the PUBMED database published up until January 2015. Studies which used different diseases and other conditions to define frailty, evaluated multimorbidity related only to mental health or which presented disease homogeneity were not included. A meta-analysis using random effect to obtain a pooled effect of multimorbidity on mortality in older adults was conducted only with studies which reported hazard ratio (HR). Stratified analysis and univariate meta-regression were performed to evaluate sources of heterogeneity.ResultsOut of 5806 identified articles, 26 were included in meta-analysis. Overall, positive association between multimorbidity and mortality [HR: 1.44 (95%CI: 1.34; 1.55)] was detected. The number of morbidities was positively related to risk of death [HR: 1.20 (95%CI: 1.10; 1.30)]. Compared to individuals without multimorbidity, the risk of death was 1.73 (95%CI: 1.41; 2.13) and 2.72 (95%CI: 1.81; 4.08) for people with 2 or more and 3 or more morbidities, respectively. Heterogeneity between studies was high (96.5%). The sample, adjustment and follow-up modified the associations. Only nine estimates performed adjustment which included demographic, socioeconomic and behaviour variables. Disabilities appear to mediate the effect of multimorbidity on mortality.ConclusionsMultimorbidity was associated with an increase in risk of death. Multimorbidity measurement standardization is needed to produce more comparable estimates. Adjusted analysis which includes potential confounders might contribute to better understanding of causal relationships between multimorbidity and mortality.     

Psychosocial and cognitive multimorbidity and health-related quality of life and symptom burden in older adults with atrial fibrillation: The systematic assessment of geriatric elements in atrial fibrillation (SAGE-AF) cohort study

BackgroundDepression, anxiety, and cognitive impairments occur in up to 40 % of adults with AF and are associated with poorer health-related quality of life (HRQoL) and higher symptom burden. However, it is unknown how often these impairments co-occur, or multimorbidity, and how multimorbidity effects HRQoL and symptom burden.MethodsPatients with AF age ≥65 years with a CHA₂DS₂VASC risk score ≥ 2 and eligible for oral anticoagulation therapy were recruited from five clinics in a prospective cohort study. Participants completed validated measures of depression (PHQ9) and anxiety (GAD7), cognitive impairment (MoCA), and HRQOL and AF symptom burden (AFEQT). Multinomial logistic regression was used.ResultsParticipants (N = 1244, 49 % female) were on average 76 ± 7 years; 86 % were non-Hispanic white. Approximately 35 % of participants had 1 impairment, 17 % had 2 impairments and 8% had 3 impairments; 39 % had none of the 3 impairments examined. Compared to participants with no impairments, patients with 1, 2 and 3 impairments had higher odds of poor HRQoL (adjusted OR [AOR] = 1.77, 95 % CI 1.21, 2.60; AOR = 6.64, 95 % CI 4.43, 9.96; and AOR = 7.50, 95 % CI 4.40, 12.77, respectively) and those with 2 and 3 impairments had higher odds of high symptom burden (AOR = 3.69 95 % CI 2.22, 6.13; and AOR = 5.41 95 % CI 2.85, 10.26).ConclusionsPsychosocial/cognitive multimorbidity is common among older adults with AF and is associated with poor HRQoL and high symptom burden. Clinicians might consider incorporating psychosocial and cognitive screens into routine care as this may identify a high-risk population.