预测极早产儿坏死性小肠结肠炎发生风险列线图模型的建立北大核心CSCD

目的探讨极早产儿坏死性小肠结肠炎(necrotizing enterocolitis,NEC)发生的危险因素,并构建预测NEC发生风险的列线图模型。方法选取2015年1月至2021年12月住院的752例极早产儿为研究对象,包括2015~2020年极早产儿(建模集)654例和2021年极早产儿98例(验证集)。建模集根据有无发生NEC分为NEC组(n=77)和非NEC组(n=577),通过多因素logistic回归分析确定极早产儿NEC发生的独立危险因素,采用R软件绘制列线图模型。利用验证集的数据对列线图模型加以检验。采用受试者工作特征(receiver operator characteristic,ROC)曲线、Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验及校正曲线评估模型的效能,采用临床决策曲线评估模型的临床实用价值。结果多因素logistic回归分析显示,新生儿窒息、败血症、休克、低白蛋白血症、严重贫血及配方奶喂养为极早产儿NEC发生的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。建模集ROC曲线的曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)为0.833(95%CI:0.715~0.952),验证集ROC曲线的AUC值为0.826(95%CI:0.797~0.862),表明该模型具有良好的区分度和判别能力。校正曲线和Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验显示该模型在预测值和真实值之间的准确性和一致性较好。结论新生儿窒息、败血症、休克、低白蛋白血症、严重贫血及配方奶喂养是极早产儿NEC发生的独立危险因素;基于多因素logistic回归分析结果建立的列线图模型可为临床早期评估极早产儿NEC的发生提供定量、简便、直观的工具。     

Wilms瘤患儿生存预后影响因素分析及预测列线图的构建

目的分析Wilms瘤患儿生存预后的影响因素并构建预测列线图。方法回顾性分析本院186例Wilms瘤患儿的临床资料及预后资料。用Cox比例风险回归模型分析影响患儿总体生存期的因素,通过所得因素用R3.5.1软件的rms安装包绘制出列线图,用Bootstrap自抽样法进行内部验证,通过一致性指数(C-index)评估列线图对Wilms瘤患儿生存预测的准确性。绘制ROC曲线分析列线图模型预测Wilms瘤患儿生存预后的价值,计算ROC曲线下面积(AUC)。结果 186例患儿均得到有效随访,3年生存率和5年生存率分别为74.7%和72.0%。Cox多因素分析结果显示,年龄(OR=1.745)、发病部位(OR=1.886)、肿瘤大小(OR=2.290)、COG分期(OR=2.340)和病理分型(OR=0.375)是影响Wilms瘤患儿生存预后的独立因素(P均0.05)。用上述5个因子绘制列线图,C-index为0.741。3年总体生存率和5年总体生存率的列线图校准曲线接近45°对角线,提示列线图预测生存率与实际生存率较为接近。列线图预测3年死亡预后的AUC为0.835(95%CI:0.811～0.921),预测5年死亡预后的AUC为0.818 (95%CI:0.802～0.917)。结论年龄、发病部位、肿瘤大小、COG分期是影响Wilms瘤患儿生存预后的独立因素,根据上述因素构建的列线图可较为准确地预测Wilms瘤患儿的生存预后。     

存在肺实变的肺炎支原体肺炎患儿行支气管肺泡灌洗术的预测模型构建北大核心CSCD

目的分析存在肺实变的肺炎支原体性肺炎(Mycoplasmapneumoniaepneumonia,MPP)患儿行支气管肺泡灌洗术(bronchoalveolar lavage,BAL)的危险因素,构建肺实变MPP患儿行BAL的预测模型。方法回顾性分析2019年8月-2022年9月在南京医科大学附属常州第二人民医院儿科住院的202例MPP患儿的临床资料,根据是否行BAL,分为BAL组(100例)和非BAL组(102例)。采用多因素logistic回归分析寻找存在肺实变的MPP患儿行BAL的危险因素,采用Rstudio(R4.2.3)软件制作预测模型,采用受试者操作特征曲线(receiver operator characteristic curve,ROC曲线)、C-指数和校准曲线评价模型的预测效能。结果多因素logistic回归分析显示,发热时间长、C反应蛋白高、D-二聚体高、合并胸腔积液与存在肺实变的MPP患儿行BAL密切相关(P<0.05)。基于多因素logistic回归分析结果建立列线图预测模型,ROC曲线分析显示,训练集的曲线下面积为0.915(95%CI:0.827~0.938),灵敏度和特异度分别为0.826和0.875;验证集的曲线下面积为0.983(95%CI:0.912~0.996),灵敏度和特异度分别为0.879和1.000。Bootstrap校正后的C-指数为0.952(95%CI:0.901~0.986),校准曲线显示模型预测概率与实际发生概率之间的一致性较好。结论该研究制定的预测模型可根据患儿发热时间、C反应蛋白、D-二聚体、胸腔积液评估存在肺实变的MPP患儿行BAL的概率,且预测效能良好。     

Establishment of a nomogram model for predicting the risk of early-onset sepsis in very preterm infants北大核心CSCD

目的 探讨极早产儿早发型败血症（early-onset sepsis, EOS）发生的危险因素,并构建预测EOS发生风险的列线图模型。方法 回顾性选取2020年1月—2022年12月在郑州大学第一附属医院出生并入住新生儿科的344例极早产儿,按7∶3的比率随机分为训练集（241例）和验证集（103例）。训练集根据是否发生EOS分为EOS组（n=64）和非EOS组（n=177）。采用多因素logistic回归分析筛选极早产儿EOS发生的危险因素,利用R语言构建列线图,并由验证集进行验证。分别采用受试者操作特征曲线（receiver operating characteristic curve, ROC曲线）、校准曲线和决策曲线分析评价模型的区分度、校准度和临床净收益。结果 多因素logistic回归分析显示,胎龄、产房气管插管、羊水粪染、生后首日血清白蛋白水平和绒毛膜羊膜炎是极早产儿EOS发生的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。训练集ROC曲线的曲线下面积为0.925（95%CI：0.888~0.963）,验证集ROC曲线的曲线下面积为0.796（95%CI：0.694~0.898）,表明模型的区分度良好。Hosmer-Lemeshow拟合优度检验表明模型拟合度良好（P=0.621）。校准曲线分析和决策曲线分析提示模型的预测效能和临床应用价值较高。结论 胎龄、产房气管插管、羊水粪染、生后首日血清白蛋白水平和绒毛膜羊膜炎与极早产儿EOS的发生独立相关;根据这些因素构建的极早产儿EOS发生风险的列线图模型有较高的预测效能和临床应用价值。     

极/超低出生体重儿发生肠外营养相关性胆汁淤积症风险的列线图模型构建与验证

目的探讨极/超低出生体重儿发生肠外营养相关性胆汁淤积症(PNAC)的高危因素并建立风险列线图预测模型。方法回顾性分析2019年1月至2020年12月泉州市儿童医院新生儿科收治住院的极/超低出生体重儿的临床资料, 采用多因素Logistic回归分析筛选PNAC发生的独立危险因素;利用R软件构建PNAC的列线图预测模型, 并通过ROC曲线评价模型的性能。结果共纳入203例极/超低出生体重儿, 中位出生胎龄29.14(28.00, 30.86)周, 中位出生体重1 170(1 000, 1 300)g, 其中26例(12.81%)发生PNAC。多因素Logistic回归分析显示, 肠外营养持续时间(OR=1.015, 95%CI 1.003～1.034)、葡萄糖累积用量(OR=1.014, 95%CI 1.001～1.028)、小于胎龄儿(OR=3.455, 95%CI 1.127～10.589)、新生儿败血症(OR=3.142, 95%CI 1.039～9.503)是影响PNAC发生的独立危险因素(P<0.05);将以上独立危险因素引入R软件构建列线图模型, ROC曲线下面积为0.8...     

先天性心脏病术后脓毒症患儿列线图预后模型的构建与验证

目的 探讨先天性心脏病术后脓毒症患儿死亡的预测因素,并建立列线图预测模型。方法 收集2012年1月至2021年12月广东省人民医院开胸手术的先天性心脏病术后脓毒症患儿临床数据。采用单因素、多因素Logistic回归分析,筛选出先天性心脏病术后脓毒症患儿死亡危险因素,根据筛选结果建立列线图预测模型,使用Bootstrap重抽样法进行内部验证。结果 共纳入157例,存活组135例患儿,死亡组22例。经单因素分析和多因素Logistics回归分析发现,术后发热总时间（OR=1.084,95%CI:1.022～1.151）、术后第3天血管活性-正性肌力评分（OR=1.162,95%CI:1.070～1.263）、二次开胸（OR=6.033,95%CI:1.906～19.098）是先天性心脏病术后脓毒症患儿死亡的独立危险因素（P<0.05）。以上述3项危险因素建立列线图预测模型,受试者工作特征曲线下面积为0.909(95%CI:0.852～0.966),重复抽样法验证的区分度C指数：0.9139(95%CI:0.9100～0.9178);HosmerLemeshow拟合优度检验显示,该模型...     

先天性心脏病患儿体外循环后发生低体温风险的列线图模型建立与评价

目的探讨先天性心脏病患儿体外循环复温后再次发生低体温的危险因素,建立个体化预测其术后发生低体温风险的列线图模型。方法回顾分析2019年1月1日至2019年4月30日因先天性心脏病行体外循环(CPB)下纠治术患儿的临床资料,利用二分类logistic回归模型分析先天性心脏病患儿CPB术后发生低体温的独立危险因素,应用R软件构建预测风险的列线图模型,通过ROC曲线评价模型的预测价值。结果研究期间711例患儿中术后发生低体温者239例(33.6%),男128例、女111例,中位年龄13.0个月(5.7～36.0个月)。二分类logistic回归分析结果显示,术前营养评分为高风险、禁食时间越长、CPB方案中转流温度越低、CPB停机温度36 ℃是先天性心脏病患儿CPB复温后发生低体温的独立危险因素(P0.05)。基于以上独立危险因素建立列线图模型,模型ROC曲线下面积(AUC)为0.887(95% CI:0.858～0.915)、约登指数为0.734、灵敏度为0.836、特异度为0.898。并对现有数据进行预测,总的预测准确度为79.8%,灵敏度为57.1%,特异度为90.9%。结论基于术前营养、禁食时间、CPB方案、体外停机温度4个独立危险因素构建的列线图模型具有较好的预测效能,在先天性心脏病患儿CPB复温后发生低体温预测中有较好的临床应用价值。     

湖北恩施土家族苗族自治州新生儿窒息危险因素分析及列线图预测模型的构建：一项多中心研究

目的 探讨湖北恩施土家族苗族自治州新生儿窒息发生的危险因素,并构建预测新生儿窒息发生风险的列线图模型。方法 回顾性纳入湖北恩施土家族苗族自治州20家协作医院2019年1—12月收治的613例新生儿窒息患儿作为窒息组,随机抽取同期在这些协作医院出生并入住新生儿科的988例非窒息患儿作为对照组。对新生儿窒息的危险因素进行单因素及多因素分析。采用R软件(4.2.2)构建预测新生儿窒息发生风险的列线图模型,采用受试者操作特征曲线、校正曲线和决策曲线分析分别评估模型的区分度、校准度和临床实用价值。结果 多因素logistic回归分析显示:新生儿为土家族、男婴、早产儿、先天畸形、胎位异常、宫内窘迫、母亲职业为农民、母亲高中以下文化程度、产前检查<9次、先兆流产、脐带异常、羊水异常、前置胎盘、胎盘早剥、急诊剖宫产、助产是新生儿窒息发生的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。基于这些危险因素建立的列线图模型预测新生儿窒息发生的曲线下面积为0.748 (95%CI:0.723～0.772);校正曲线提示该模型预测新生儿窒息发生的准确性较高;决策曲线分析显示,使用该模型预测新生儿窒息发生风险可使患儿获...     

谷草转氨酶与血小板比值指数联合总胆汁酸对胎龄<34周早产儿肠外营养相关性胆汁淤积症的预测价值北大核心CSCD

目的探讨谷草转氨酶与血小板比值指数(aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index,APRI)联合总胆汁酸(total bile acid,TBA)对胎龄<34周早产儿肠外营养相关性胆汁淤积症(parenteral nutritionassociated cholestasis,PNAC)的预测价值。方法回顾性分析2019年1月—2022年9月在皖南医学院第一附属医院住院期间接受肠外营养(parenteral nutrition,PN)的270例胎龄<34周早产儿的临床资料,包括PNAC 128例和非PNAC 142例。比较两组的临床资料,通过多因素logistic回归分析探讨PNAC发生的预测因素,并采用受试者操作特征曲线(receiver operating characteristic curve,ROC曲线)评价APRI、TBA单独及二者联合预测PNAC的价值。结果PNAC组在PN 1、2及3周后的TBA水平均高于非PNAC组(P<0.05);PN 2、3周后PNAC组APRI均高于非PNAC组(P<0.05)。多因素logistic回归分析显示,PN 2周后APRI和TBA升高是早产儿发生PNAC的预测因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示,PN 2周后APRI联合TBA预测PNAC发生的灵敏度、特异度及曲线下面积(area under the curve,AUC)分别为0.703、0.803、0.806;APRI联合TBA预测PNAC发生的AUC高于APRI、TBA单独预测的AUC(P<0.05)。结论在PN 2周后,APRI联合TBA对胎龄<34周早产儿PNAC的预测价值较高。     

急诊科反复喘息婴幼儿需要住院并接受呼吸支持治疗的预测因素（英文）

目的反复喘息患者多为2岁以下的婴幼儿。在热带国家,对该人群住院期间接受呼吸支持治疗的风险的临床预测模型研究较少。该研究旨在评估就诊于哥伦比亚急诊科的反复喘息婴幼儿需要住院并接受呼吸支持治疗的临床预测因素。方法该研究是一项回顾性队列研究,纳入了2019年1～12月期间在哥伦比亚Rionegro的两个三级中心医院就诊的所有患有2次或2次以上喘息发作的婴幼儿(年龄均小于2岁)。主要结局指标是住院加呼吸支持治疗。采用多因素logistic回归模型确定需要住院并接受呼吸支持治疗的独立预测因素。结果共85名婴幼儿住院并接受呼吸支持治疗,其中34名(40%)予以高流量鼻导管吸氧,2名(2%)予以无创通气,6名(7%)予以机械通气,43名(51%)予以常规氧疗。多因素logistic回归模型分析显示,早产(OR=1.79,95%CI:1.04～3.10)、喂养困难(OR=2.22,95%CI:1.25～3.94)、鼻煽和/或咕噜声(OR=4.27,95%CI:2.41～7.56)和既往有1次以上喘息发作需要住院治疗(OR=3.36,95%CI:1.86～7.08)是需要住院并接受呼吸支持治疗的预测因素。该模型特异度高(99.6%),鉴别度中等,曲线下面积为0.70(95%CI:0.60～0.74)。结论该研究表明,早产、喂养困难、鼻煽和/或呼噜声,以及有1次以上需要住院治疗的喘息发作史,是急诊科就诊的反复喘息婴幼儿需要住院并接受呼吸支持治疗的独立预测因素。然而,还需收集更多的其他热带国家的证据来验证这个结论。[中国当代儿科杂志,2021,23(5):438-444]     

Early risk factors for death in neonates with persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn treated with inhaled nitric oxide北大核心CSCD

Objective To evaluate the early risk factors for death in neonates with persistent pulmonary hypertension of the newborn (PPHN) treated with inhaled nitric oxide (iNO). Methods A retrospective analysis was performed on 105 infants with PPHN (gestational age ≥34 weeks and age <7 days on admission) who received iNO treatment in the Department of Neonatology, Children's Hospital of Nanjing Medical University, from July 2017 to March 2021. Related general information and clinical data were collected. According to the clinical outcome at discharge, the infants were divided into a survival group with 79 infants and a death group with 26 infants. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the risk factors for death in infants with PPHN treated with iNO. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to calculate the cut-off values of the factors in predicting the death risk. Results A total of 105 infants with PPHN treated with iNO were included, among whom 26 died (26/105, 24.8%). The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that no early response to iNO (HR=8.500, 95%CI: 3.024-23.887, P<0.001), 1-minute Apgar score ≤3 points (HR=10.094, 95%CI: 2.577-39.534, P=0.001), a low value of minimum PaO2/FiO2 within 12 hours after admission (HR=0.067, 95%CI: 0.009-0.481, P=0.007), and a low value of minimum pH within 12 hours after admission (HR=0.049, 95%CI: 0.004-0.545, P=0.014) were independent risk factors for death. The ROC curve analysis showed that the lowest PaO2/FiO2 value within 12 hours after admission had an area under the ROC curve of 0.783 in predicting death risk, with a sensitivity of 84.6% and a specificity of 73.4% at the cut-off value of 50, and the lowest pH value within 12 hours after admission had an area under the ROC curve of 0.746, with a sensitivity of 76.9% and a specificity of 65.8% at the cut-off value of 7.2. Conclusions Infants with PPHN requiring iNO treatment tend to have a high mortality rate. No early response to iNO, 1-minute Apgar score ≤3 points, the lowest PaO2/FiO2 value <50 within 12 hours after admission, and the lowest pH value <7.2 within 12 hours after admission are the early risk factors for death in such infants. Monitoring and evaluation of the above indicators will help to identify high-risk infants in the early stage. © 2022 Xiangya Hospital of CSU. All rights reserved.     

Clinical signs to identify late-onset sepsis in preterm infants

Late-onset neonatal sepsis (LOS) in preterm infants is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in preterm infants. Since presenting symptoms may be non-specific and subtle, early and correct diagnosis is challenging. We aimed to develop a nomogram based on clinical signs, to assess the likelihood of LOS in preterms with suspected infection without the use of laboratory investigations. We performed a prospective cohort study in 142 preterm infants <34 weeks admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit with suspected infection. During 187 episodes, 21 clinical signs were assessed. LOS was defined as blood culture-proven and/or clinical sepsis, occurring after 3 days of age. Logistic regression was used to develop a nomogram to estimate the probability of LOS being present in individual patients. LOS was found in 48 % of 187 suspected episodes. Clinical signs associated with LOS were: increased respiratory support (odds ratio (OR) 3.6; 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.9–7.1), capillary refill (OR 2.2; 95 %CI 1.1–4.5), grey skin (OR 2.7; 95 %CI 1.4–5.5) and central venous catheter (OR 4.6; 95 %CI 2.2–10.0) (area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic curve 0.828; 95 %CI 0.764–0.892). Conclusion: Increased respiratory support, capillary refill, grey skin and central venous catheter are the most important clinical signs suggestive of LOS in preterms. Clinical signs that are too non-specific to be useful in excluding or diagnosing LOS were temperature instability, apnoea, tachycardia, dyspnoea, hyper- and hypothermia, feeding difficulties and irritability.     

早产儿坏死性小肠结肠炎影响因素分析及发病预测模型的构建

目的 探讨早产儿坏死性小肠结肠炎（necrotizing enterocolitis,NEC）发生的影响因素,制定一个可以预测NEC发生并指导预防的评分表。 方法 回顾性收集2011年1月至2020年12月吉林大学白求恩第一医院新生儿科收治的早产儿的临床资料,分为NEC组（Bell Ⅱ期及以上）（n=298）和非NEC组（n=300）,对NEC影响因素进行单因素及多因素统计分析,明确NEC的独立影响因素,并根据影响因素构建预测NEC的列线图,用受试者工作特征曲线及一致性指数（C指数）测量列线图的预测性能。 结果 多因素logistic回归分析显示：Ⅱ度及以上颅内出血、经外周静脉穿刺中心静脉置管、使用母乳强化剂、输红细胞悬液、红细胞比容>49.65%、平均红细胞体积>114.35 fL、平均血小板体积>10.95 fL是NEC的独立危险因素（P<0.05）;使用肺表面活性物质、使用益生菌、血小板分布宽度>11.8 fL是NEC的保护因素（P<0.05）。列线图预测NEC风险的准确性良好,bootstrap校正的C指数为0.844。预测有无NEC的列线图总分最佳截断值为171.02分,灵敏度、特异度分别为74.7%、80.5%。 结论 NEC发病风险预估列线图在指导NEC的早期预判及有针对性的预防及早期干预方面有一定的临床价值。     

血浆IL-6与IL-27在鉴别早产儿急性呼吸窘迫综合征与呼吸窘迫综合征的初步研究北大核心CSCD

目的 探讨血浆白细胞介素(interleukin,IL)-6、IL-27在鉴别早产儿急性呼吸窘迫综合征(acute respiratory distress syndrome,ARDS)及新生儿呼吸窘迫综合征(neonatal respiratory distress syndrome,NRDS)中的价值。方法 前瞻性纳入2021年3~11月重庆医科大学附属儿童医院新生儿诊治中心具有呼吸窘迫表现的早产儿,根据诊断结果分为ARDS组(n=18)及NRDS组(n=20)。采用酶联免疫吸附试验法检测患儿血浆IL-6和IL-27水平,受试者工作特征(receiver operating characteristic,ROC)曲线分析各指标诊断ARDS的价值。结果 ARDS组血浆IL-6及IL-27水平均高于NRDS组(P<0.05)。ROC曲线分析显示:当IL-6取56.21 pg/m L时,曲线下面积、灵敏度和特异度分别为0.867、61.1%、95.0%;当IL-27取135.8 pg/m L时,曲线下面积、灵敏度和特异度分别为0.881、83.3%、80.0%。结论 血浆IL-6和IL-27可作为早期鉴别早产儿ARDS与NRDS的生物学指标。     

Validation of transcutaneous bilirubin nomogram for identifying neonatal hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late‐preterm infants: a multicenter study

Objectiveto prospectively validate a previously constructed transcutaneous bilirubin (TcB) nomogram for identifying severe hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late‐preterm infants.Methodsthis was a multicenter study that included 9,174 healthy term and late‐preterm infants in eight hospitals of China. TcB measurements were performed using a JM‐103 bilirubinometer. TcB values were plotted on a previously developed TcB nomogram, to identify the predictive ability for subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia.Resultsin the present study, 972 neonates (10.6%) developed significant hyperbilirubinemia. The 40^th percentile of the nomogram could identify all neonates who were at risk of significant hyperbilirubinemia, but with a low positive predictive value (PPV) (18.9%). Of the 453 neonates above the 95^th percentile, 275 subsequently developed significant hyperbilirubinemia, with a high PPV (60.7%), but with low sensitivity (28.3%). The 75^th percentile was highly specific (81.9%) and moderately sensitive (79.8%). The area under the curve (AUC) for the TcB nomogram was 0.875.Conclusionsthis study validated the previously developed TcB nomogram, which could be used to predict subsequent significant hyperbilirubinemia in healthy Chinese term and late‐preterm infants. However, combining TcB nomogram and clinical risk factors could improve the predictive accuracy for severe hyperbilirubinemia, which was not assessed in the study. Further studies are necessary to confirm this combination.     

Umbilical cord levels of interleukin-1 receptor antagonist and neonatal outcome

BACKGROUND: Previous studies indicate that there may be infant gender differences in cytokine expression associated with differences in neonatal morbidity. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that umbilical cord interleukin-1 receptor antagonist (IL-1ra) correlates with infant gender and neonatal outcome in preterm infants. STUDY DESIGN: IL-1ra was measured in cord blood taken from 58 preterm infants (33 males, 25 females) with gestational age less than 32 weeks. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curve were used for identifying IL-1ra values with high sensitivity and specificity for neonatal morbidity and adverse outcome, i.e., death or survival with severe intraventricular hemorrhage or periventricular leukomalacia. RESULTS: In the female infants, but not the male infants, cord IL-1ra values correlated with postnatal depression, expressed as Apgar scores at 1 min (correlation coefficient, r(s); p value: -0.542; 0.005), 5 min (-0.571; 0.018), and 10 min (-0.442; 0.035); and postnatal age at intubation (-0.799; 0.001). The ROC area under the curve (AUC) was 0.735 for adverse outcome (p=0.013), and 0.683 for bronchopulmonary dysplasia (p=0.021) when all infants were included. However, there was a significant gender difference in the ROC curve for adverse outcome (p=0.026), with AUC 0.640 (p=0.240) in males and AUC 0.929 (p=0.008) in females. Above a chosen cutoff at 13,500 ng/l for IL-1ra cord the sensitivity and specificity for predicting adverse outcome was 100 and 81%, respectively in females versus 50 and 84% in males. CONCLUSION: Increased levels of cord IL-1ra levels are associated with neonatal morbidity and adverse outcome in preterm infants. Comparable levels of IL-1ra have different predictive value depending on infant gender.     

A comparison of indices of respiratory failure in ventilated preterm infants

AIM: To compare indices of respiratory failure in terms of their ability to predict adverse respiratory outcomes in preterm infants. The indices evaluated were: (a) the alveolar-arterial oxygen tension difference (A-aDO(2)); (b) the ratio of arterial to alveolar oxygen tension (a/A ratio); (c) the oxygenation index (OI); (d) the fractional inspired oxygen concentration (FIO(2)). METHODS: Details of respiratory support and arterial blood gas data in the first 24 hours of life were collected in ventilated infants below 34 weeks gestation. The worst single value of a particular index in the first 24 hours was chosen to quantify the severity of respiratory failure in each infant. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed and areas under the curve (AUC) calculated to compare the performance of the indices in predicting death from respiratory failure and/or the development of chronic lung disease (CLD). RESULTS: A total of 155 preterm infants were studied, of whom 35 (23%) died primarily from respiratory failure and 53 of the 120 survivors (44%) developed CLD. The overall performance of the four indices in predicting death from respiratory failure ranged from 0. 77 (AUC for maximum FIO(2)) to 0.88 (AUC for minimum a/A ratio). The corresponding AUCs for gestational age and birth weight were 0.75 and 0.76 respectively. In contrast, demographic variables tended to perform better than indices of respiratory failure in predicting CLD/death. CONCLUSIONS: There was no evidence of a significant difference between the performance of the a/A ratio, A-aDO(2), and OI in predicting adverse respiratory outcomes. Use of the OI is recommended because of its ease of calculation.