吸毒人群基数估计方法的研究

目的 探讨估计吸毒人群基数的有效方法。方 法在乐山市市中区强制戒毒所、乐山市市中区自愿戒毒门诊和针具交换点收集相关数据资料，分别采用捕获一再捕获法、乘数法和德尔菲法对乐山市市中区现有吸毒人群基数进行估计。结果 捕获-再捕获法、乘数法和德尔菲法估计乐山市市中区现有吸毒分别为3455，1703和2600人。结论 依据戒毒所现存登记资料，采用捕获-再捕获法估计吸毒人群基数易于操作、费用低，结果可信性较好。乘数法计算简便，但在吸毒人群中获取准确的乘数较为困难。德尔菲法对难接触人群进行调查的可行性较好，但影响结果的主观因素较多。

Study on methods of estimating size of drug user

Objective To explore the effective method for estimateing the size of drug users. Methods Capture-mark-recapture method,multiplier method and delphi method were applied to calculate the numbers of drug users in Leshan downtown district,using the data collected Leshan detoxic center from 1997 to 2002. Results The size of drug users calculated in Leshan downtown district were 3?455,1?703 and 2?600 by capture-mark-recapture method,multiplier method and delphi method,respectively. Conclusion Capture-mark-recapture method was easy to operate,and credibility of the data counted was high.Multiplier method was convenient to count,but want to obtain the true multiplier was difficult.Delphi method was useful to investigate the closed population,but its results was influenced by a lot of subjective factors.