厦门市医疗机构流感大流行应对能力的评估

目的评估厦门市二级以上医疗机构流感大流行应对能力。方法通过对医疗救治资源的调查,用模型Flu surge估算出流感大流行期间可能的住院患者人数、死亡人数,以及呼吸机、ICU、病床等医疗设备的负担能力,进而评估流感大流行对医疗机构的冲击。结果发生流感大流行时门诊病例、住院病例及死亡病例将超过医院的承载能力,尤其是ICU重症监护病床数将不能满足救治病人的需要。结论 Flu surge模型估计的结果提示,厦门市二级以上医疗机构应继续加强医疗救治能力建设,同时应采取压低流感流行高峰,推迟流行时间等防控策略减轻医疗机构负荷。

Assessment on Response Capacity to Influenza Pandemic in Medical Institutions in Xiamen City

Objective To assess the capacity of Xiamen medical institutions to respond to the influenza pandemic.Methods We estimated the number of hospitalized patients,the number of deaths,the currently available numbers of total hospital beds,intensive care unit（ICU） beds,and ventilators during the influenza pandemic using the Flu Surge software.Results During the maximum hypothetical,6-week epidemic from a pandemic virus with 35% attack rate Xiamen would have an estimation with 850 850 influenza illnesses,425 425 influenza outpatients,10 027 influenza hospitalizations and 1 786 deaths and would exceed the carrying capacity of the medical institutions.The ICU beds would be in greatest shortage during the flu pandemic.Conclusions To respond the influenza pandemic,the number of ICU beds is in need of greatest increase.We should take measures to suppress the peak of the influenza pandemic in order to reduce the load of medical institutions.